Wednesday, April 18, 2012

YPF in comparative perspective

I like this article by Joshua Keating in Foreign Policy, which is a quick comparative historical view of the YPF nationalization in Argentina. He notes five steps in the anatomy of a takeover:

1. Choose your moment
2. Build your case
3. Make them an offer they can't refuse
4. Put the boot down
5. Don't get overthrown

Given the stakes involved, the last point deserves more attention. When do governments get overthrown and when do they not? Argentina is less polarized than Venezuela was in the first few years of Hugo Chávez's presidency, and Spain will react differently from the United States. Meanwhile, Iran in 1953 is tightly bound to the Cold War.

Fernández's nationalization of YPF seems like the latest in a series of provocative international gestures, including efforts to reassert control over the Falkland Islands. While she's clearly counting on the political benefits of these bold movements making up for the international backlash, she's entering very dangerous waters.

Dangerous, I suppose, but the backlash is likely to be more economic than political.


Otto Rock 10:15 AM  

He wrtoe the same article about Evo's nationalization of YPFB. You guys believed him then, too.

Never underestimate the popularity of writing an article that people want to read.

Mandramas 12:07 PM  

Spain don't have the tools to retaliate. They outsourced most of their tools to the EU. Also, the Spaniards are in the middle of a crisis, they won't allow to escalate the issue further.
CFK choosed a good time to strike.

  © Blogger templates The Professional Template by 2008

Back to TOP