Latin America in 2020

I don't remember another end of year when things look so down for Latin America going forward.  These things are not new, but it's striking to put them all together, even in brief.

There's mostly sluggish economic growth:

CEPAL predicts that Latin American economic growth will be only 1.3% in 2020. In all, 23 of 33 will experience contraction versus 2019. The economy will accentuate other political problems.

There is too little political stability:

Bolivia, Nicaragua, and Venezuela are the extremes in different ways, with Bolivia and Venezuela facing presidential and legislative elections, respectively, and in circumstances fraught with illegitimacy. Chile teeters as we wait to watch the constitutional process. Argentina, Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru face various types of political uncertainty, while Brazil is governed by a nutcase. Central America has not improved security and constantly faces punishment from the United States. For all the criticisms of AMLO, Mexico is looking very good by comparison.

The military is more politically active than it's been in many years, restoring a moderator role, and remains a highly respective institution.

And there is too little economic good news, which exacerbates everything.

Trade with the U.S. is uncertain

Trade diversification is a good thing, but uncertainty about tariffs and trade is not. With Trump in office, uncertainty is the norm. Whatever deal you strike might be negated with a tweet.

Corruption is Rampant:

Corruption is not new, but anti-corruption efforts are being thwarted, including by the United States. And that just pisses everyone off more.

The Venezuelan crisis is hurting neighboring countries:

There is no end in sight, though of course we have no way of knowing what's going on at any given time with the military. From the outside, Maduro has successfully hunkered down and gathered sufficient foreign support, with a Russian lifeline.

The Amazon is burning and climate change is causing serious problems

The left and the right prefer the revenue.

Not an optimistic way to start the new year and new decade.