Venezuela in the 2020 Campaign

Journalist Frida Ghitis writes at World Politics Review that Venezuela will be be prominent in the 2020 campaign.

Venezuela left the front pages of American newspapers months ago. Most Americans are not particularly interested in the plight of yet another country thousands of miles away. But the crisis’ convergence with U.S. politics in an election year all but guarantees that Venezuela will reappear on American foreign policy and political radars in 2020.

The reason, of course, is that this matters to Venezuelan-Americans and Cuban-Americans in Florida. Logically this makes sense, but I am still wrestling with the counter-arguments.

First, Trump has a foreign policy history of talking tough and declaring victory based on the talk. He does not necessarily need a change of government in Venezuela to achieve this. He can point to all his sanctions. You can just hear him saying how soft Obama was and how these are the toughest sanctions of any country in history.

Second, it is not clear to me whether Mike Pompeo's announced strategy of negotiated elections gives Trump the resounding win he wants. Most importantly, it will almost certainly involve amnesties or some other sort of concessions that Florida hardliners will not like. That sort of process would be slow and messy.

Third, Cuban-Americans outnumber Venezuelan-Americans by a lot, and Trump famously reversed Obama's diplomatic thaw in Cuba. Therefore hardliners may well already be decided. Trump may not need anything more than talk with Venezuela to keep those votes.

Fourth, Democrats don't have anything better to offer. I have yet to hear anything from any candidate that is different from what's already happening now. Except for Bernie, who shies away from talking about Venezuela at all, there is just vague tough talk.

But let's see.