Mexican foreign relations

A little over a week ago, I mentioned Kirchner’s trip to Mexico. Now Mexico is reaching out to Venezuela, reinstating the ambassador after a two year freeze as a result of Chávez’s criticism of Fox (the “lap dog” comment) and initial refusal to accept the results of the 2006 presidential election. Calderón also named a new ambassador to Cuba.

Mexico has a long history of working with the U.S. while also maintaining relationships with countries (notably Cuba) with leaders the U.S. doesn’t like. So as Mexico negotiates a big anti-drug deal with the Bush administration, it will also strengthen its relationship with Chávez and the Castros.

This is definitely a diplomatic win for Chávez who, as far as I know, didn’t back down from his comments yet still had Calderón come courting.

Read more...

The military and copper in Chile

My friend Mike had pointed out this article from the Council on Hemispheric Affairs on Chilean arms purchases. The upshot is that because of the law guaranteeing the military 10% of copper earnings combined with high copper prices, the military is buying expensive weapons, the government is therefore spending less on other, more important projects, while Chile’s neighbors are becoming more alarmed.

The analysis is solid, though the overly alarmist tone is a bit much. For example, at the very beginning it says, “Is the Chilean military preparing for a new computer game: War of the Pacific: Part II?” and then never mentions it again. The author also suggests the army is just barely tolerating democracy—that may have been true 10-15 years ago, but not now.

Nonetheless, the basic premise is right on. These weapons serve no legitimate purpose, the money should be spent in much better ways (even, as the author points out, for the rank and file as opposed to bling bling purchases) and given history, this makes Bolivia and Peru much more nervous and prompts them to spend money they might not have otherwise.

The bottom line is the Copper Law. As Defense Minister, Bachelet announced an effort to repeal it, but was blocked by the right, which does not trust the Concertación to fund the armed forces. Interestingly, though, when I was in Chile in June I spoke to members of Congress—members from both the PPD and UDI said they thought a change would occur in the not-too-distant future. However, the ultimate formula may entail some sort of budget guarantee TBD. For now, however, the military can keep riding the gravy train.

Read more...

Capitalism and immigration in Charlotte

The news recently has been filled with congressional initiatives to punish employers who hire undocumented workers (complete with rah-rah quotes like “We are tough and we are going to be even tougher”). In addition, as of July 2 local governments had introduced a staggering 1,404 pieces of legislation related to immigration. This brings several things to mind.

First, this is a huge test for whether all the pro-immigration rallies can translate into political influence and resist the anti-immigrant tide. I have my doubts, but perhaps I am wrong.

Second, it also a major test for enforcement-only advocates. We will see whether the “pure punishment” strategy works as claimed.

Third, capitalism is humming along in the opposite direction, oblivious to the political bluster. Just in the Charlotte area, there will be a new Latino-themed mall, there is Mexican rodeo, aisles in every supermarket are well-stocked with Mexican food products, small markets and restaurants (of all different types) thrive, while Bank of America and insurance companies offer loans and policies without requiring a Social Security card.

In the South, this is a new phenomenon. Businesses no longer look at the immigrant population solely in terms of labor, but rather also as an almost entirely untapped market.

Read more...

More non-news about Fidel

The U.S. media (with the Miami Herald at the forefront for obvious reasons) cannot get its fill of Fidel Castro rumors. The headline today may be one of my all time favorites:

“Vague comments made about Fidel Castro's health”

I'm serious, that is a real headline. The article discusses a very perplexing situation. The Cuban VP called up Hugo Chávez’s "Aló Presidente" show and said Fidel was working very hard and loved the show. But why didn’t Fidel call himself? Is it because he’s already dead? Is this all a Cuban remake of Weekend at Bernie’s? Inquiring minds want to know. The article continues with Raúl’s daughter admitting, to the shock of all, that Fidel may not live forever.

Read more...

755

Barry Bonds now has 755 homers and soon will break the record (on a side note, he hit number 755 against the Padres but we swept the Giants so I didn’t mind too much). I’ve found myself viewing Bonds and the record with indifference. I don’t hate Bonds, but he’s not very likeable, not to mention the steroids accusations hanging over him. In other words, he’s no Tony Gwynn. Or Hank Aaron, for that matter.

But I also think that Bud Selig has acted liked a dope (no pun intended). Watch the video of Bonds’ home run and you see him standing there, hands in pockets, as if he wasn’t even paying attention. Now he says he’s going home and won’t be around for the Giants’ next few games. What pressing matters does he have?

I think Bonds took steroids (see Game of Shadows, which summarizes all the evidence) but I don’t hate him for it, and I think Selig should give the record more attention, especially since Bonds has not been convicted of anything. But that cloud, combined with his personality, just leaves me much less interested than I otherwise would’ve been.

Regardless, this may be a short-lived record. A-Rod just hit his 500th, the youngest person ever to do so (he only just turned 32).

Read more...

More trade with Cuba

North Dakota joins the growing list of U.S. states promoting trade with Cuba, with 100 tons of seed potatoes. I wrote a few months ago about how Nebraska (which, incidentally, also has a Republican governor) placed a priority on Cuba, as did Alabama. Idaho is also making a big push, as its governor traveled to Cuba in April (though Idaho may well be miffed that ND got a potato contract).

Simultaneously, we have all these farming states wanting more access to Cuba, while Raúl advocates more dialogue. But to what degree can these governors make any changes in their own party’s official view of Cuba?

h/t The Latin Americanist

Read more...

Iturriaga caught

Chilean authorities finally caught General Iturriaga, who had been hiding for over a month. Turned out he only went as far as Viña del Mar, which is very close to Santiago. This came right after the army announced various measures intended to show its unhappines with his flight, and I would guess the timing is no coincidence. He really overplayed his hand, and his failure to rally more than token support is a good sign for civil-military relations.

Read more...

Costa Rica and free trade

I was asked by Carlos Sandoval García, the director of the Instituto de Investigaciones Sociales at the Universidad de Costa Rica to help publicize their new blog, which they hope can be a forum for debating whether or not to ratify the free trade agreement (i.e. CAFTA-DR). There is a referendum on October 7. The blog also has links to a number of different videos, academic works, official declarations, press accounts, etc.

Read more...

Human rights trials and stability

Kathryn Sikkink and Carrie Booth Walling, “The Impact of Human Rights Trials in Latin America.” Journal of Peace Research 44, 4 (July 2007): 427-445.

Abstract: Since the 1980s, states have been increasingly addressing past human rights violations using multiple transitional justice mechanisms including domestic and international human rights trials. In the mid-1980s, scholars of transitions to democracy generally concluded that trials for past human rights violations were politically untenable and likely to undermine new democracies. More recently, some international relations experts have echoed the pessimistic claims of the early `trial skeptics' and added new concerns about the impact of trials. Yet, relatively little multicountry empirical work has been done to test such claims, in part because no database on trials was available. The authors have created a new dataset of two main transitional justice mechanisms: truth commissions and trials for past human rights violations. With the new data, they document the emergence and dramatic growth of the use of truth commissions and domestic, foreign, and international human rights trials in the world. The authors then explore the impact that human rights trials have on human rights, conflict, democracy, and rule of law in Latin America. Their analysis suggests that the pessimistic claims of skeptics that human rights trials threaten democracy, increase human rights violations, and exacerbate conflict are not supported by empirical evidence from Latin America.

Sikkink is a major scholar of human rights issues in Latin America, and this article is particularly interesting because I do think that the “undermine new democracies” argument had largely become conventional wisdom, yet analyses have not used any sort of dataset. The authors refer to a “justice cascade” where there are multiple avenues like truth commissions, trials, reparations, archives, memory sites, etc. which actually strengthen democracy. Human rights trials can have a positive effect on rule of law, as they increase interest and attention on the judiciary.

Read more...

The border fence and Latin American relations

All the talk of building a border fence to keep Latin Americans out of the country may well contribute to closer relations between countries in the region. No matter their differences, they can all agree how insulting it is.

So, Kirchner was in Mexico and gave a speech to the Mexican Senate criticizing the wall. At the same time, he was negotiating an automotive free trade agreement with Calderón. The former would certainly contribute to getting the latter passed by Mexican lawmakers.

Read more...

LASA paper

Tomorrow is the deadline to get a LASA paper submitted to be included on the conference CD-Rom, so I’ve finished up some final revisions.

I have a rough draft done, though it certainly still needs work (forgive the formatting--I don't have time to get a copy of Acrobat installed on campus at the moment). The title is “The Transition is Dead, Long Live the Transition: Bachelet’s Inheritance of Chilean Civil-Military Relations.” It examines the way in which the concept of “transition” has been used in Chile, the reasons for differences in definitions, and how these often diverge from academic definitions. It has mutated as I’ve worked on it.

The final conference program is now available online for anyone interested.

Read more...

Fujimori update

Just a quick follow up--as Steven Taylor notes, Alberto Fujimori did not win a seat in the Japanese upper house. Now we have to wait and see whether the Chilean courts will ultimately boot him back to Peru (the ruling against extradition is under appeal).

Read more...

Robert Dallek's Nixon and Kissinger

I admit it, I am a bit of a Nixon junkie, which got going in the mid-1990s when a spate of Watergate books (as well as a really good documentary) came out. I just read Robert Dallek’s Nixon and Kissinger, which I first started reading idly and then really got into. If you’ve read a lot about Nixon, then you won’t find much new about him specifically, but the relationship between the two is morbidly fascinating, based on a wide range of documents and tapes as they talked and wrote to one another. So I’ve put it on the sidebar.

Several themes come out of the book. Each would:

--try to take more credit than the other for foreign policy successes. Both had insatiable appetites for approval, and never received as much as they felt they deserved. Both were also self-pitying. Kissinger threatened to resign about 100 times, and constantly needed Nixon to stroke his ego, while Nixon would call up Kissinger late at night and ask for confirmation that his foreign policies were the greatest in U.S. history. They distrusted but still needed each other.

--backstab like mad, even each other. As soon as Kissinger or Nixon left a meeting, each would talk to someone else about the other’s shortcomings. Nixon was always concerned that Kissinger would be seen as the driving force of foreign policy, so he undercut him whenever possible.

--blame the media and political opponents for any and all problems that arose. Both were incredibly thin-skinned and given to temper tantrums at negative news stories. Dallek gives multiple examples where Kissinger referred to people as “maniacs,” which seemed to be a favorite word of his.

--use foreign policy to distract the country from Watergate, and convince Congress that Nixon’s removal would threaten world peace (to the extent that such a thing existed). Obviously, it didn’t work, but they kept talking about it right until the end.

Dallek is a very good writer, which makes a fairly long book go quickly. My only complaint is that he injects his own opinion a little too much, mostly in terms of what Nixon or Kissinger could’ve done in a given situation. He generally does so to highlight how their public statements did not really reflect their actions, but it doesn’t seem very helpful to discuss things that didn’t happen, especially since the potential effects are so difficult to discern. For example, he says if Kissinger was really concerned about the effects of Watergate on foreign policy, he could’ve tried to persuade Nixon to invoke the 25th amendment and step aside while he dealt with the crisis. Such a decision, though, is far too complex to toss in there in a few sentences.

Read more...

Tony Gwynn in the Hall of Fame

Tony Gwynn is being inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame today. It is fitting that he goes in with Cal Ripken, Jr., because they were both dedicated to the game, dedicated to their team (even to the detriment of salary, in Tony’s case, with 20 years on the Padres) and dedicated to being positive role models, no matter how corny that may sound. Gwynn practically embodies San Diego (even though he grew up in Long Beach) because he attended SDSU, played for the Padres his entire career, and now is the manager for SDSU’s baseball team, with the stadium named after him.

I’ve “met” him twice, if you count memorabilia shows in San Diego when I was a young teenager as “meeting.” He was a really nice guy, who kept smiling, chatting and shaking the hands of every teenager who handed him a baseball card to sign and told him how much they liked watching him play.

And he was. His numbers (and what if the 1994 strike hadn’t happened? He was hitting .394) are awesome. During his career, he had 3,141 hits, a .338 average (the highest for any player who started his career after WWII), eight batting titles and even five gold gloves on top of that, for a guy never heralded for fielding. A USA Today article says he “singled his way into Cooperstown.” That’s unfair and ignores his other numbers. In 1997, he batted .372 with 49 doubles, 17 homers, and a .547 slugging percentage. His lifetime slugging is .459. In contrast, Hall of Famer Rod Carew, who was much more a singles hitter, had a slugging percentage of .429. So yes, Gwynn slapped a lot of hits into what he called the “5.5 hole” (the space between 3B and SS) but he shouldn’t be viewed as a one-dimensional hitter.

But I don’t need to defend him too much, as there is no doubt that Tony Gwynn is one of the best players in major league history.

Read more...

General on the lam

Retired Chilean army general Raúl Iturriaga is still on the lam. In response, the army is now cutting off the services it provided for other officers currently serving sentences. This ranges from cable TV to medication. I had also not known that the army took 0.23% of the salaries of active duty officers to pay for the defense of human rights cases, but now that is going to be made voluntary.

This is a new and entirely welcome attitude of the army leadership, which is making the whole affair backfire for Iturriaga.

Read more...

Electoral College and NC

This has nothing to do with Latin America, but I can’t resist since I’ve been talking so much about electoral systems in my summer school Intro to Comparative Politics. North Carolina is getting closer and closer to changing the way the state doles out electoral votes. The Senate has passed, and the House soon (maybe even today) will vote on a reform that would grant one electoral vote to the candidate who wins each congressional district (a total of 13) and then the final two votes would be given to the candidate who wins statewide.

In presidential elections, NC goes Republican (the last election was 56%-44%) but there are strong Democratic pockets (with all sorts of gerrymandering disputes) including Mecklenburg County, where Charlotte is. Therefore, the reform could grant the Democratic candidate three votes (Kerry won three districts in 2004) and perhaps more, though I haven’t had a chance to look at the outcomes of each district. Since it would go into effect in 2008, the reform would have an immediate impact. As I've mentioned before, NC might even gain an electoral vote after the 2010 Census because of immigration.

Obviously, then, Republicans don’t like it, as it guarantees their candidate will lose a few electoral votes. Democrats say it would bring more presidential candidates to the state because the outcome would no longer be a foregone conclusion. However, I would hope that this generates more discussion about a) the Electoral College; and b) the desirability of winner-take-all within the context of the Electoral College.

So far, though, the debate is entirely partisan, and the larger question—what is the best way to elect a president in this country?—is barely being addressed. In general, the debate is receiving remarkably little media attention.

Read more...

The Hazleton case is decided

The federal judge in the Hazleton case has ruled against the city. I will have to check out the ruling once it is online (though it's really long). A quote:

Whatever frustrations ... the city of Hazleton may feel about the current state of federal immigration enforcement, the nature of the political system in the United States prohibits the city from enacting ordinances that disrupt a carefully drawn federal statutory scheme," Munley wrote in a 206-page opinion. "Even if federal law did not conflict with Hazleton's measures, the city could not enact an ordinance that violates rights the Constitution guarantees to every person in the United States, whether legal resident or not."

Since Congress refused to act, the judicial branch will be taking charge. I wouldn't be surprised if an appeal has been filed before I finish writing this.

Read more...

Hard for me to say I'm sorry

The Honduran Congress voted to demand that President Manuel Zelaya request an apology from Hugo Chávez for calling a Honduran cardinal an “imperialist clown” after the cardinal had been quoted as saying that Chávez "thinks he's God and can trample upon other people." Of course, this comes on the heels of Chávez saying he’ll boot foreigners out of the country if they criticize him or the country after being insulted by the head of Mexico’s PAN.

I am starting to lose track of the legislatures demanding apologies after Chávez comments. Is it me, or does he seem a bit touchier in the past few months?

Read more...

The South Carolina debate and Latin America

Boz has the excerpt from the Democrats’ debate about whether they would be willing to meet with foreign leaders like Hugo Chávez, Fidel Castro, and Kim Jong Il. He concludes that the candidates’ answers really weren’t very different, and I agree.

There is some effort, though, to give this non-story some traction, most likely because these debates have been so dull that the media is looking for any morsel that might divide the favorites. So, for example, this quote from the Miami Herald:

CNN legal analyst Jeffrey Toobin said, ``Obama looked inexperienced and naive...It was a very big win for (Clinton) on that question.''

The Clinton camp jumped on that:

While the differences in the two answers were not revisited during the remainder of the debate, Clinton’s campaign distributed a memo to members of the press Tuesday morning, asserting, “There is a clear difference between the two approaches these candidates are taking: Senator Obama has committed to presidential-level meetings with some of the world’s worst dictators without precondition during his first year in office.”

There are multiple problems with these arguments. First, it is ridiculous hair splitting because their answers were very, very similar—Obama just didn’t make clear whether he meant a “presidential” meeting or a meeting of envoys.

Second, we can debate about Hugo Chávez’s policies and their effects, but he won a free and fair election by a very wide margin, so should not be lumped together with the “world’s worst dictators.” Why in the world shouldn’t a president talk to him?

Third, even if Obama did mean a presidential-level meeting, I don’t see it as naïve, and certainly not some sort of “very big win” for Clinton. One could come up with perfectly good arguments for why meeting personally with a perceived enemy could be positive for the U.S.

I also wonder how many voters even care.

Read more...

Farmer's Branch

Farmer’s Branch, TX is one of the cities where local immigration laws have generated controversy and lawsuits. The city council approved an ordinance (like in Hazleton) forcing apartment managers to check the immigration status of renters, though a federal judge has ruled that it cannot be enforced until it goes to trial or is otherwise resolved.

The city councilman who spearheaded the legislation had a quote that perfectly sums up the problem with the debate over immigration.

Still, the ordinance has made it clear illegal immigrants are not welcome in Farmers Branch, O'Hare said. He believes that has led to a decline in crime, even though Farmers Branch police do not track the legal status of those arrested.

"It's OK to put two and two together," said O'Hare. "You
don't always have to have proof."

You don’t need proof. And, really, who cares about evidence? If you have no data to support your views, then just assume they are true.

Read more...

It's no fun being an ex-dictator

It’s interesting (well, for me at least) to see what happens to former dictators, and it might also be interesting to do an analysis to understand different outcomes—freedom, exile, arrest, assassination, etc. Manuel Noriega is about to get out of prison and his lawyer says he wants to live a “quiet retirement” in Panama. However, both the French and Panamanian governments want him to do some more jail time so he will stay in the “arrest” category for the foreseeable future.

Or maybe I should make a pitch for a “Where Are They Now?” VH1 type of show.

Read more...

Fidel and badminton

The Cuban baseball team beat the U.S. 3-1 to win gold at the Pan American Games.

In honor of the game, Fidel became a sports writer and published an article in Granma. In the middle, he actually does a sort of “live blogging,” writing and commenting as he watches a volleyball game.

Some of it is really stream of consciousness. He takes a dig at major leaguers who won’t play for their country, gets into an odd analogy about “Aryan” thoroughbreds, and then makes fun of badminton.

In many countries, athletes do not even compete for their own nation. Some of them earn up to 102 million dollars a year, more than the owner of a large sugar mill. Cuba only has her own athletes, and they are not professionals. It is an unfair contest.

Sometimes I have fun as I watch the strong well-nourished thorough-bred horses --let's call them Aryan-- just like their riders. But despite all that, it is a peaceful competition and an amusing colonial heritage. Tell me what’s your competition, and I will tell you who your colonizers were.

Nowadays as we have some relative sovereignty, everyone, as the case may be, tries to introduce new sports into the regional and world competitions. One example: badminton.

Had he just taken his pain medication?

Read more...

Mayoral race and immigration

Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory (a Republican) will have to face an opponent in a primary, something he doesn’t always have to do, or wins easily. The difference now is that many Republicans are angry about a transit tax to fund light rail, and his opponent—school board member Ken Gjertsen—is against the tax. In an off year election, turnout will be really low, so anything can happen. (Here is another story with a link to a quick TV interview I did yesterday).

However, Gjertsen has also said that illegal immigration will be part of his campaign. He just filed yesterday, so has not defined that position, or what city he considers a model for immigration law. Although County Commissioners have periodically (and unsuccessfully) tried to pass laws in that regard, the city has not.

Read more...

Children of immigrants and politics

The NYT has an interesting article about the political activism of the children of Mexican immigrants in NYC. However, the content of the article reflects more hope than fact. Activists are trying to get young people—especially of voting age—to become more engaged politically. Yet research on the children of immigrants generally points the opposite direction, since they are caught between two worlds, and feel intense (and conflicting) pressures from both, which does not lend itself to political activism.

The basic question remains. We witnessed huge rallies during the immigration debate over the past several years, but how much will that translate into political power? At least in the short term, I am skeptical, but the longer term could be very different. I’m not sure about the 2008 election.

h/t ImmigrationProf Blog

Read more...

Term limits

Seeing the news about a possible effort in Bolivia to remove presidential term limits made me think about the recent politics of presidential terms in Latin America. At the moment I see four trends.

First, change the constitution to allow unlimited re-election. Hugo Chávez is going for it and now apparently so might Evo Morales.

Second, change the constitution to allow for limited re-election (whether consecutive or not) as in Colombia and Costa Rica and, not so long ago, Peru (under Fujimori), Argentina, Brazil, and Venezuela.

Third, don’t change the constitution but keep family members running, a la Argentina (and even the United States).

Fourth, go the opposite direction and reduce the presidential term, a much rarer bird. Chile recently went from six to four years.

John Carey* has argued that an important factor for democracy is how the changes were made. Were they the result of negotiations between the president and political opponents, or were they done through plebiscite or other measure that required no negotiation or concession?

This makes sense to me, but we should also think about how much the type of change affects democracy. Each of the four will have different impacts on the relationship with the opposition, control over state resources, consolidation of personal political power, etc.


*John Carey, “The Reelection Debate in Latin America.” Latin American Politics and Society 45, 1 (Spring 2003): 119-133.

Read more...

Visas for Cubans

The Cuban government is complaining that the U.S. is not approving enough visas. The 1994 agreement was for 20,000, and for the first nine months only 53.6% have been approved (the counting starts in October). Here is a quote from the original article in Granma:

Could this be related in any way to recent statements by President Bush, when — along with wishing for our president’s death — he expressed his preference for forcing the “changes” he wishes to impose on Cuba, even if that were to lead to an unstable situation that would surely also affect the United Sates?

The answer is almost certainly yes. At the same time, however, the Cuban government should give a more full explanation of why people staying in the country represent a destabilizing factor. There is no doubt that a lack of visas lead people to use dangerous or even criminal (e.g. hijacking) means of getting away, but Granma also refers vaguely to “social indiscipline” stemming from U.S. policy.

Read more...

Guest workers

The Southern Poverty Law Center released a new study entitled “Close to Slavery,” which criticizes guest worker programs. It is well worth reading because, despite the title, it is not intended just to bash the programs in the U.S., but to offer policy recommendations that could address many of their problems.

As for the current H2A program, the report is very sobering reading, with exploitation, lack of medical access (workers are afraid to seek medical attention and be seen as problems), lack of government oversight, and various kinds of intimidation.

The recommendations, however, are also worth reading, as they offer a framework to protect the rights of workers while also working to ensure that the wages of U.S. citizens are not pushed downward.

Read more...

Chilean exiles

I had mentioned taking a look at academic papers—my second choice also happens to be on Chile (but no, I won’t always focus on Chile). Unfortunately, for journal articles I am not sure how to get around the problem of linking to the full text. It might just be impossible unless the authors have posted a version, which does not seem to be the case here.

Chilean Political Exile
Thomas C. Wright & Rody Oñate Zúñiga
Latin American Perspectives, Vol. 34, No. 4, 31-49 (2007)

Abstract: Forced exile was important to Chilean politics both during the military regime and after the dictatorship's end in 1990. Exile was central to Pinochet's strategy for eliminating the left in Chile and consolidating and retaining absolute political power. At the same time, exile kept the opposition alive when the left was decimated in Chile, as exiles reconstituted their parties abroad and fought the dictatorship from the "external front." Exiles' return in the mid-1980s contributed to the success of the opposition effort to defeat Pinochet in the 1988 plebiscite. Finally, the exile experience was central to the reconfiguration of Chilean politics, particularly the "renovation" of the Socialists, which led to the breakup of the long-standing Socialist-Communist alliance and the formation of the Socialist—Christian Democrat alliance, the core of the Concertación de Partidos por la Democracia, which has elected presidents and majorities in the Chamber of Deputies in each election since 1989.

I was struck by this article because I think the issue of exile is understudied (it is part of a special issue on the topic). The authors’ analysis—especially with regard to the “renovation” of Socialists--goes along with what I’ve heard over the years as I’ve interviewed Chilean politicians. Many Socialists fled or were forced out, then went to live in places like East Germany. That experience then convinced them that such a system was not really what they wanted. An important addition to this fact is that the experience—much more so than for the Christian Democrats—prompted Socialists to seek better ties with the military after 1990.

One issue the article does not mention is the current debate over whether to allow Chileans abroad to vote in presidential elections. There is a perception (which may or may not be accurate) that Chileans abroad are more likely to be exiles or family members of exiles, so they would be more likely to vote for the left. As a result, the right does not want the voting law to change.

It would be interesting to generate some hypotheses—to what degree can we generalize about the political effects of exile? Empirically, it would difficult because I’m not sure any numbers are available, since no one “registers” as an exile.

Read more...

4 miler

We ran the Run For Your Life 4 Miler this morning, which is a nice race because the course is relatively easy and they give out Coolmax t-shirts.

During the run, it occurred to me that human beings have a very uneasy relationship with spandex.

Read more...

The Fujimori saga

As if she needed more problems, La Tercera has a good analysis of how the judge’s decision not to order Fujimori’s extradition creates two complications for President Bachelet. First, it has the potential to sour Chilean-Peruvian relations even further, at a time when there are delicate maritime border issues being discussed. Second, since the charges against Fujimori center mostly on human rights, it makes the Chilean government look bad if it just lets him hang out in the country.

Meanwhile, in Japan the head of the People’s New Party has called Fujimori the “last samurai” who can “keep the other members of the party on their toes” if he wins a seat in the Japanese upper house. The election is July 29.

I found the following quote from the party’s secretary-general quite remarkable:

"There may be some truth to the accusations filed against him in Peru, but Mr. Fujimori has not committed any wrongdoing in Japan," he said.

In other words, if you order the torture and/or deaths of Peruvians but stay away from the Japanese, then you’re fine.

Read more...

Second half begins

I had hoped just to forget the All-Star game, though Matthew Shugart gleefully (I think it's fair to say) thanked the Padres for being the source of the losing pitcher from this year’s (Chris Young) and last year’s (Trevor Hoffman) games, which in turn means the AL keeps dominating. He also thanked me for advocating Chris Young for the last roster spot.

Thanks very much for rubbing it in.

Life, however, is good. As we begin the second half, the Padres have the best record in the NL (though we would only rank 6th in the AL), everyone is healthy (knock on wood) and our pitching staff is really good, 1st in team ERA by a wide margin. Our hitting stinks to high heaven, which worries me, but maybe the Bradley and Barrett trades will help more as the season continues. We are 24th in runs, 29th in batting average, and dead last in OBP.

In other baseball news, thanks to my friend Mike for pointing this story in the NYT about the effort to promote baseball in Brazil—it’s a great article. It includes a fact I didn’t know—baseball was introduced to Brazil by the Japanese, not by the U.S., and is most popular in areas with larger Japanese populations.

As a result, 16 of the 20 players on the team that will compete in Rio de Janeiro are of Japanese ancestry. But even those with no Japanese blood have learned the game with the names used in Japanese for positions and plays, and whenever Manager Mitsuyoshi Sato talks to the team, his players address him as sensei and bow respectfully when he finishes his remarks.

Read more...

Political Science papers

Political Science Weblog has abstracts and links to political science papers with general appeal. I like this idea, and I plan to do the same periodically with articles/papers related to the types of Latin American issues I blog about.

Read more...

Temp work at the border

Some Republicans in Congress are calling for private firms to help patrol the border.

DynCorp International, a Virginia-based military security firm, said it could train and deploy 1,000 private agents to the U.S.-Mexico border within 13 months, offering a quick surge of law enforcement officers to a region struggling to clamp down on illegal immigration.

Currently, the company manages an army of private security agents deployed across the world in support of U.S. missions, including several former Border Patrol agents hired to help secure the Iraqi border.

“We could provide highly qualified people to the Border Patrol quickly,” company spokesman Greg Lagana said. “It’s kind of like a temp service in that there are no obligations for long-time work.”

This is just yet another potential outcome of Congress’ inability to act. Rent-a-cops at the border. At the moment, though, the Border Patrol is not biting.

“That’s not even something the Border Patrol would consider,” said Ramon Rivera, a Washington-based spokesman for the agency. “We are on track (for hiring) and should be meeting our numbers for 2008.”

But the proposal has gained early support from some Republicans, including U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers, R-Ala., who introduced a bill last summer that would mandate the addition of 5,000 to 8,000 contract agents.

The bill died in committee, but Rogers may reintroduce it if the Border Patrol fails to meet its hiring goals, his staffers said.

Read more...

President Bush and Latin America

President Bush hosted a big reception, inviting “150 Latin American community groups and 70 U.S.-based organizations.” Following the same line he used when he visited Latin America, he made a point of saying that the U.S. did a lot of positive things in the region but did not get credit:

''It's important for us -- for me to explain to our fellow citizens some of the work we're doing in the neighborhood,'' the president told his audience.

It’s fine for the president to emphasize various aid programs, and at least show that he is willing to spend some of his time focusing on Latin America. If the U.S. government is doing positive things, then by all means highlight them. Those aid programs, however, are not a substitute for a coherent policy that takes Latin American views into account.

See, for example, the editorial by Dan Burton (yes, of Helms-Burton fame) in the Washington Times, which mentions the reception, but makes only one conclusion: the way to engage Latin America and to foster “social justice” is through free trade. I just don’t think the U.S. can gain any credibility until it backs off the free trade cure-all mantra, acknowledges that many people suffer severely as a result, and agrees that any economic policy must take that into consideration. Trade and investment between the U.S. and Latin America can be mutually beneficial, but a simplistic free trade message is not leadership.

Read more...

Running and politics

Via FP Passport: As someone who runs a lot, I could not resist this story. French President Nicolas Sarkozy is being criticized for jogging.

Sarkozy seems to be confirming a French belief that jogging is an activity for self-absorbed individualists such as Americans, the Times of London reports. The editor of V02, a sports magazine, told the left-wing French newspaper Libération, "Jogging is of course about performance and individualism, values that are traditionally ascribed to the right." The Times writes that sports sociologist Patrick Mignon thinks that "French intellectuals have always held sports in contempt, while totalitarian regimes cultivated physical fitness."

So I might be a self-absorbed near-totalitarian. I’ll let my students decide.

Read more...

Hazleton update

The mayor of Hazleton had used a shooting death blamed on illegal immigrants as the main reason for his now infamous effort to rid his town of them. However, prosecutors have now dropped the homicide charges due to unreliability of witnesses. In fact, showing how well our immigration system works, ICE deported a witness by mistake.

We are also still waiting for the judge to make a decision on the Hazleton laws, though the case will likely make its way to the Supreme Court.

Read more...

Play baseball and avoid whiteboards

You may well have seen the news from Rio and the Pan American Games, where some unidentified USOC worker wrote “Welcome to the Congo!” on a whiteboard in the media center for all to see, which was apparently “a joke.” Trying to explain it, a USOC media person said it was written because “it’s really hot in Rio.” Ultimately, the USOC apologized and the person was disciplined and is no longer part of the delegation. The effects, however, will linger.

This incident was so insensitive and idiotic on so many levels. For example, O Globo immediately pointed out that not only was the office air conditioned, but that the average July temperature is 78. So not only is it stupid, but it’s not even accurate.

In addition, it’s supposed to be a “joke” but isn’t even remotely funny. Comparing Rio to the Congo—that really will leave people rolling in the aisles.

Didn’t they ever have some sort of meeting, perhaps with a Power Point slide that said, “It’s not a good idea to make fun of people when you go to their country”?

Read more...

Congressional impact of immigration

h/t Tim Boyum at News 14 Carolina: Minnesota’s state demographer says they would lose a congressional seat if the 2010 census were taken today. The three states in contention are Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina.

In other words, the areas with the greatest growth in Latino immigration.

Read more...

Coalition unity in Chile

There was a discussion here a few weeks ago about whether there were disillusioned voters in Chile that the coalition of the right (the Alianza) could potentially pick up. Along similar lines, there is an article in the April 2007 issue of Comparative Politics (sorry, the full text needs library subscription, and I don't even think CP has new articles online).

Eduardo Alemán and Sebastián M. Saiegh, Legislative Preferences, Political Parties, and Coalition Unity in Chile

Competition between two stable multiparty coalitions has dominated electoral and legislative politics in post-Pinochet Chile. However, several scholars dispute the argument that a fundamental change has realigned the party system. The point of contention is whether a bipolar pattern has replaced the traditional three-way split (tres tercios) in political competition. These alternative hypotheses about the cohesion of parties and coalitions in the legislative arena can be tested through an analysis of the voting records of Chilean deputies. Coalition membership rather than partisan positions dictate legislative behavior. Therefore, the Chilean electoral coalitions are not merely electoral pacts. Rather, they constitute two distinct policy-based coalitions.

In terms of legislative voting, therefore, there is no distinct “center” that could move either way. One question I have is whether the deputies (i.e. members of the lower house) of the Concertación continue to reflect the preferences of their constituents, or whether there are people who consider themselves “centrist” and therefore would be willing to move toward the right. In short, is Chile now bipolar?

Read more...

Chávez threatens to take all his marbles and go home

...would be a better headline for this story. Chávez says he will withdraw Venezuela’s bid to join Mercosur unless the Brazilian and Paraguayan legislatures approve it by September. Lula says he will meet with Chávez (though did not specify when) and I would imagine in that meeting he will ask him to keep his lips zipped. Lula said he tried to meet with him recently in Paraguay, but Chávez had “other appointments.”

At this point, either Chávez and Lula smooth things over behind the scenes with the Brazilian legislature, or he pulls out entirely. Considering he blew off Lula, he may already have decided on the latter, but we'll have to wait and see.

Read more...

Team USA

Last night I saw Team USA beat Chinese Taipei (aka Taiwan) 5-1 at Fieldcrest Cannon Stadium (home of the Kannapolis Intimidators). Even had a San Diego State player get the save by pitching the last three innings. The team moves on to play Japan in Durham, and then the Pan American Games in Brazil (yes, there is even a Latin America connection).

But if it’s a warm evening and you’re five years old, most of your attention is on ice cream. In small minor league parks, though, somebody needs to pay attention because foul balls do come your way.

Read more...

Pat Neshek

The vote is on for the final spot on the AL and NL All Star rosters. The NL is a no brainer with the Padres' Chris Young. For the AL, I'm going with Pat Neshek, the Twins reliever who has his own website/blog. How can you not love the following rationale for voting for him?

I really don't know how to describe this but I'm the fan/collector/guy that somehow managed to get to the big leagues. I seriously wake up each day and can't believe how I got here and am thankful to even touch the uniform! Basically if I wasn't playing baseball right now I would probably be the guy who was coming home from work and planning a night around baseball, planning what games to go to, which minor league teams to get autographs at, which guy to take on my fantasy team and which guy to trade in MLB The Show…heck this is what I do in the off-season, no lie! Basically I'm a fan of baseball, if your team wasn't represented in this final 5 Vote I would love to represent you and all the fans of the game. I can tell you right now that nobody in the world, no other player would appreciate this more than me. So if you want somebody that is a fan of the game, a guy just like you, a guy that would probably pass out if elected to the ALL STAR game then you can help me out by voting here!

Read more...

New immigration law

Arizona became the first state to pass an immigration law after the collapse of the Senate bill. It penalizes businesses that hire undocumented immigrants, and has so many problems that the governor requested a special session to fix it before the law goes into effect January 1. For example, as currently written, the law would shut down hospitals.

Other parts, however, are not so easily addressed. In particular, the bill does not have enough money for enforcement. Instead, the governor is requesting that Congress put more funding into “Basic Pilot,” the database for employers to check the status of potential employees, currently being used by 5,000-10,000 employers nationwide. Arizona alone would have 130,000-150,000 business that would need to access it very soon.

Arizona is therefore arguing that it has the right to make immigration policy, but does not have the obligation to pay for it. I guarantee that a lawsuit is being drafted right now. Since Congress decided to pass on immigration, the judicial system will have to step in. We could end up with a situation where Congress chooses to do nothing and state/local governments are told they can do nothing. And nobody really wants to pay for it.

Read more...

Paco Ignacio Taibo II's An Easy Thing

I read Paco Ignacio Tabio II’s An Easy Thing, and have put it on the side bar. I am becoming a big fan of his fiction. This particular book is the most conventional of the three I’ve read, a straightforward detective story with three separate threads (including one about whether Emiliano Zapata was still alive) plus one about his family.

His characters are compelling, and the most likable are always seamier—Hector Belascoarán Shayne himself wanders Mexico City at all hours, encountering an eclectic collection of people, constantly smoking cigarettes and drinking soda. Government officials—and the police in particular—are uniformly crooked. As always, the city itself is portrayed as a living, breathing thing, beautiful in its own way but also tragic. Belascoarán Shayne also periodically thinks about Mexican politics and society (in this case, reflecting the 1970s, when the book was originally published).

It was part of what it meant to him to be Mexican, sharing in the general bitching over the rise in prices, the cost of tortillas, increases in bus fares, pulling his hair out over the TV news, cursing the police and government corruption. Cursing the whole sad state of affairs, the great national garbage dump that Mexico had become. For Hector it was a matter of solidarity, of brotherhood, the shared complaints, the shared disgust, the shared pride. Earning the right to call himself un mexicano, guarding himself against the curse of starlets like Marisa Ferrer. It kept him in touch with his people (pp. 18-19).

Like with a lot of detective fiction, the attitudes and atmosphere are as fun as the stories. Even if you don’t know anything about Mexico, it is a worthwhile read and even has a twist at the end.

Read more...

AMLO

Last month, I asked what happened to Andrés Manuel López Obrador, and linked to some news about his speaking tour. Now he’s organizing a rally in Mexico City marking the anniversary of last year’s presidential election. His own aides openly admit that his ability to get similar numbers and intensity constitutes an important test of his political viability.

He has an uphill battle, as Calderón continues to be popular, and Mexico City Mayor Marcelo Ebrard has taken the PRD limelight in the past year. Are people still as angry as last year? If so, will they stick with AMLO?

Read more...

Quote of the day (actually yesterday)

"I think that is something that can be dealt with at a later time."

Senator Elizabeth Dole's answer about how she proposed to address the issue of millions of undocumented workers in the U.S.

Read more...

Drenched! 5K

We ran the Drenched! 5K this morning, so named because H2O magazine was a sponsor, though it also accurately describes everyone's condition after the race (though it started at 7:30 to avoid the summer heat and humidity). I pushed the kids this time, and won the male baby jogger division. I did, however, have to suffer my son's comments as he sat there, such as "those people are passing us" and "why don't you go faster and catch up with Mom."

Read more...

Immigration reform=dead

I realize that to argue we’re at a “crossroads” with regard to immigration is terribly cliché, but it’s true.

Talk radio is gleeful, as are those who hate going to Wal-Mart because there are just too many Mexicans there. Also happy are those, like Harvard economist George Borjas--who normally offered well-reasoned arguments against the reform bill--who say that this is a blow against the “establishment” (despite the fact that the grassroots campaigns by religious groups, activists, etc. in support of reform were also strong) and the “academic elite” (I do not know whether I count as such or not). In sum, the people spoke and saved us from the evils of reform.

Senator Jim DeMint tells us that “The American people won today.” If you believe the status quo represents winning, then he’s right. But if you want real change, that’s where the crossroads comes in, because now we get to see whether the arguments of reform opponents will work in practice. I have not heard any alternative solution except for “enforcement,” so that seems to be the only game in town. Supporters of reform failed, and now we’ll see whether enforcement-only has a significant effect, or whether we will settle back, watch some high profile workplace raids, and transform nothing.

Little remarked upon is the fact that we still await a decision on the Hazleton case, which will help determine the degree to which local governments can create and enforce their own immigration laws. If the courts give a green light, then watch the free-for-all as local governments enact a patchwork of different laws, which may simply give Congress an even greater incentive to do nothing.

BTW, was I the only one who realized the bill was truly dead after reading a few days ago that the White House Deputy Chief of Staff said, ““Our intelligence suggests that there will be the votes there”?

Read more...

CIA family jewels

Everyone should take a peek at the documents posted at the National Security Archive, which filed a Freedom of Information request for the so-called “family jewels,” some of the more sensitive CIA documents from the Cold War, which were released yesterday. They censored them to death, of course, but they are worth a browse for the rampant disregard for the law they represent.

They also include reports on the efforts to kill Fidel Castro, and although the U.S. government-Mafia ties are infamous, it is still rather jarring to read things like the following (this is from Part I, page 12 of the file):

“In August 1960, Mr. Richard M. Bissell approached Colonel Sheffield Edwards to determine if the Office of Security had assets that may assist in a sensitive mission requiring gangster-type action. The mission target was Fidel Castro.”

“Gangster-type action”? Who writes like that? It goes on further:

“Mr. Maheu advised that he had met one Johnny Roselli on several occasions while visiting Las Vegas. He only knew him casually through clients, but was given to understand that he was a high-ranking member of the “syndicate” and controlled all of the ice-making machines on the Strip.”

So the U.S. government, looking for gangster action, found the guy who controlled ice making in Vegas, and eventually concocted a plan to produce 6 lethal pills, which would be put into Castro’s drink. The plan was later shelved after the Bay of Pigs.

Yes. This is U.S. foreign policy toward Cuba.

Read more...

Villa Grimaldi

Chileans are ambivalent about their past. I visited Villa Grimaldi, the most infamous of detention centers--Bachelet herself was tortured there, 4,500 other Chileans were taken there, and 226 were never seen again. A Chilean friend had told me that it was visited mostly by tourists, and my impression did not contradict that. It almost seemed intentionally hidden—the address on the website has the wrong number, there are no signs, and there is almost no parking, so we drove back and forth several times to make sure we were in the right place. Once inside the grounds, there is no museum. The military destroyed most of the buildings, so it is primarily a memorial park. To my knowledge, it is the only detention center that has been made into an official memorial, but it receives relatively little attention. It is powerful to stand there and think about all the people who passed through, but it deserves more.

Read more...

All good things must come to an end

One day, I'm having a winter lunch at a Chilean vineyard, and the next I am in a hot, humid, southern summer.

Read more...

Bachelet numbers

Strangely enough, President Bachelet’s approval numbers have improved: 42% compared to 40% a month ago, and up to 37% from 33% in Santiago. Nationally, her disapproval ratings also improved, but remain high (43% compared to 46% a month ago). However, people greatly disapprove of the government in general (55% versus 53% last month) though it receives much better ratings outside Santiago.

Check out Pato Navia’s blog (in Spanish) for a highly critical commentary of the Concertación, in which he argues that it has failed to reinvent itself. I think he’s overly critical, but I do agree with his assertion that the right just can’t get its act together. Bachelet’s numbers have improved slightly, but remain well under 50%, yet the right has not stepped in and taken political advantage.

Read more...

Golden rules of the metro

A few days ago, when I put more money on my Bip! card (the Transantiago card) I was given a little paper case for the card, and on the back were the ten “Golden Rules of the Good Metropolitan." Here are the basic rules of Metro life, my translation:

1. I am tolerant and I wait my turn
2. I show sympathy toward and help others
3. I always have a positive attitude
4. I give up my seat to those who need it
5. I follow the Metro’s instructions
6. I let others off before I get on
7. I stay on the right on the walkway
8. I use the stairs without running
9. I keep my Metro clean
10. I put more money on my card ahead of time

Shoot, I think with two young kids I may post this in my house. Just a few tweaks. On #5, replace “the Metro” with “Mom & Dad.” On #9, replace “Metro” with “room.” I’m not sure about #10.

Read more...

Baseball and Cuba

The NYT has a story about a young Cuban baseball player who is now in a U.S. high school. Unfortunately, it is a fluff piece, never mentioning the ways in which agents try to smuggle people out or the promises of huge contracts dangled in front of people’s eyes. The article claims that “his recollections provide a rare glimpse inside the secretive world of baseball development in Cuba” but we don’t really get any insights.

Pete Bjarkman is an expert on Cuban baseball, and it’s noteworthy that in a post from a few weeks ago, he wrote the following:

Personal Wish for the Future: That major league baseball stays out of Cuba for as long as possible

Meanwhile, Jonathan at Global Baseball writes about how MLB is making its move into China.

Read more...

80s music in Santiago (Part 4)

I was told last night that the idea to pump music (which, as I've noted, is almost all 80s music from the US and UK) into downtown Santiago came from Joaquín Lavín, a member of UDI (the far right party) who was once mayor of Santiago and twice a loser in presidential elections. Apparently it was an effort to beautify downtown. Ideology aside, I’d vote against him for that alone.

Read more...

RCTV in Mexico?

RCTV is looking into the possibility of broadcasting from Mexico. This would create a very interesting dynamic between the two governments. Despite having no ideological affinity with Chávez, Calderón has tended to avoid criticizing him, but I would think that this sort of move would be viewed as at least tacit support for antichavistas. Further, Chávez would have to say something inflammatory about it--you know he can't help himself.

Nonetheless, the vow to transmit into Venezuela by cable, satellite, or internet makes me wonder how many people will even see it. What percentage of Venezuelans regularly have access to such media? I'd have to think it is relatively small.

Read more...

Getting more money for Transantiago

At the last minute, President Bachelet got the votes she needed for the Senate to pass the money for Transantiago. The senator (Carlos Bianchi) is independent but leans toward the right, and there is speculation about what he got out of the deal. Meanwhile, the Christian Democrats will likely make some formal criticism of their own member, Adolfo Zaldívar, for voting no after demanding the resignation of two cabinet members for a yes vote. This has all been entirely negative for the unity of the Concertación.

Drivers of two more bus companies went on strike starting today. I have yet to find a single person who speaks well of Transantiago. Today I chatted with a taxi driver, and I asked him what he thought of it. He first asked me to excuse his language, and then said it was “total shit.”

Even though blame can be placed on many different people, it is Bachelet who suffers. Not only is she associated with it, but she has had to use some of her very limited political capital to get more money into it. She can’t afford to limp along very long, because the presidential term is now four years (it had been six) and she’s been in office over a year already. She has spent nearly the entire time on the defensive. I am waiting to see some updated approval numbers, but they must be lower than ever.

Read more...

80s music in Santiago (Part 3)

Yesterday I boarded a bus for Valparaiso, and the driver had on the stereo pretty loud, which was playing Starship, "We Built This City." Once we were on the road, his assistant closed the door to the driver's cabin, but since I was close to the front I could then clearly hear him listening to Van Halen's "Jump."

Read more...

More adventures of Fujimori

Alberto Fujimori is apparently studying the proposal by a Japanese political party that he run for the Senate in Japan. The only problem--just a small one--is that there's no way Fujimori can get to Japan, and I don't know if Japanese law accounts for someone who happens to be under house arrest in Chile, awaiting extradition to Peru. Campaigning, voting, etc. might be tough, and would get tougher once he's eventually put in the slammer in Lima.

Read more...

More on Iturriaga

If anyone is interested in more info on Iturriaga, both in terms of his DINA background and his decision to go into hiding, check out PiensaChile (Spanish only).

Read more...

Further thoughts on Transantiago

The Transantiago issue continues to be big news here. I’ve now used the system both for bus and metro, and in principle it seems very efficient (though, obviously, I am not someone going long distances during rush hour to get to and from work). You buy a credit-type card (called a “Bip!” card for the sound you hear when you scan it) for about $2 and then add money to it. Once you use it in the metro or bus, for two hours you can make any switches you want for no more cost. In the past, if you went from metro to bus, you paid twice. The buses, all of which are new, have a machine in the front with a scanner for the card.

But the reality is that everyone I’ve talked to (from a variety of backgrounds) complains about it. Mentioning the word “Transantiago” almost always yields a moan of some sort. The complaining is not about the desirability of changing the system, but the fact that both metro and buses get way overcrowded (I’ve seen huge lines for buses), people were given an over-rosy vision of how it would work, a general sense that the government had not been straight with everyone about the potential problems, the new bus lines were not well thought out, and/or a resentment that it was done all at once without providing any time for adjustment. In short, the previous system—at least for buses—was chaotic and inefficient, but everyone knew how it worked. Overnight, people who depended on the micros were presented with a new system that had all new bus lines, new rules, and multiple problems.

The right wants a new design, and I have talked to people decidedly not from the right who agree, but no one outlines what that would mean. The senate is now debating the $290 million injection (already passed in the Cámara de Diputados with the abstention of the right-wing Alianza) and it’s been ugly, including an open demand (by Adolfo Zaldívar, a Christian Democrat) for the resignation of two cabinet ministers in exchange for a vote.

Read more...

80s music in Santiago (Part 2)

In a metro station, there was a large TV to watch while waiting for the train. Did it tell me when the next train was coming? No. Did it have anything remotely Chilean on it? No.

It played the video for Berlin's "Take My Breath Away," complete with all the Top Gun scenes.

Read more...

General in hiding

Retired General Raúl Iturriaga (who, incidentally, is also wanted in Spain and Italy) is still in hiding, and this is putting army Commander in Chief Izurieta in a tough position. He came out and said explicitly that the army does not support acting outside the law, but there are rumors that active duty officers helped to transmit Iturriaga’s declaration. He is also concerned that there might be a domino effect, where other retired officers will similarly go into hiding rather than face jail time. Some members of UDI (the far right party) have more openly supported him, saying the entire process is politicized and aimed only at vengeance.

A major complaint is that the charge is kidnapping, but like with so many cases, no body was found. Therefore the army says it is illogical to say someone has been kidnapped for over 30 years. This is one of the central elements to the legal debate about how to address the detained-disappeared.

In recent years, the army leadership has been doing a balancing act, trying to end the prosecutions while distancing itself from the individuals who committed crimes. As Pinochet’s image became more and more tarnished, and human rights activists unearthed more and more information, association with the dictatorship has become a political liability. Actually, I just read a good analysis on this general point by Felipe Agüero in a recent edited volume—he has done a ton of work on this topic.

Read more...

Chavez is going to invade Aruba

So says an Op-Ed in the Houston Chronicle. He might also invade Colombia, Curacao and Bonaire. The author uses the Malvinas war as a clumsy parallel.

Read more...

80s music in Santiago

If you flip through radio stations, you hear a lot of classic hits from the 1980s. I was on the metro, and a guy about undergraduate age had on headphones absolutely blasting Guns ‘n’ Roses.

The topper, though, is the muzak that, for reasons I can only guess about, is played on the various pedestrian-only streets downtown from speakers up on the buildings. Perhaps it is to discourage loitering. About 90% of said music is from the 1980s, like what you would hear in a cheap hotel lounge, on a tinny keyboard with light drum machines, without any singing. A sampling is Madonna, Phil Collins, and even Roxy Music. The only exception to the 1980s was hearing The Bee Gees (“How Deep Is Your Love”). If I am walking downtown, it is entertaining to guess which song is coming on.

But if you decide to play music in that setting, why not Chilean music?

Read more...

Immigration as national security

The immigration bill is on life support but not yet ready to have a fork stuck in it. President Bush is trying very hard to prove that he is not irrelevant, as he continues to push for it. The new approach is to label it a national security issue, and pump more billions into enforcement.

Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez, who was haggling with senators over possible amendments, said: “This is a national security bill. We are fixing a national security problem.”
...
“It’s a matter of our national security,” Mr. Kennedy said Wednesday. “We have broken borders and a broken immigration system.”

The notion that we need to verify who is in the country is not too controversial, but as the article correctly points out, the Senate debate is skirting around the difficulty of developing a verification system that all employers can access. No one should expect such a system to be up and running quickly, or to be free of any number of glitches.

Read more...

Cool museum

Today I went to the Centro Cultural Palacio la Moneda, which opened last year and is located directly under the presidential palace. I didn’t know what I would see, but figured it would center on Chilean cultural heritage. Turns out I was wrong.

I went and saw an enormous sculpture, like a huge banner depicting flags of the world. I got closer, wondering what it was made of. Closer still, and I realize it is made entirely of different colored human hair, ingeniously glued together. This was no ordinary museum.

I proceeded to the exposition rooms, dedicated at the moment to Asian artists as a statement of Chile reaching out toward that region, and more surprises awaited. Up on the walls in one room were various videos, one of which flashed words that formed part of an essay. The theme of this essay was that women deserved multiple orgasms, oral sex, and various other things I won’t detail, but bourgeois women are controlled by bourgeois men who deny them.

Another room had copper tiles on the floor, showing images of Salvador Allende, Che Guevara, Pablo Neruda, Mapuches, and others, even Arturo Prat, who is the main naval hero of Chile. On the walls were various videos of performance arts, and one of them was so compelling I stood there a few minutes, almost laughing out loud. It showed a guy in Tokyo, who apparently went to all different parts of the city and vomited bright colors. So you’d see him in a garden, and suddenly he’d convulse and puke up yellow. Then he’s on a sidewalk, throwing up orange.

Not a typical "below the presidential palace" museum...

Read more...

Finding the general

Raul Iturriaga, an army general during the dictatorship, has said he is going into hiding rather than serve a 5 year sentence for kidnapping.

His impassioned statement can be read here (only in Spanish). He is being treated unfairly, the legal system is biased, we’re not going to take it anymore, etc. It is hard to imagine much of anyone listening sympathetically. Maybe 10 years ago, definitely 15, but not now. Both the right and the army leadership want such people to go away because they constitute a political liability.

It shows, however, how the legacies of the dictatorship still linger. They are fading, as the protagonists die or go to jail, but they haven't gone away.

Read more...

The Chilean right and Transantiago

The Alianza (composed of RN and UDI, the two parties of the right) has announced it will abstain from today’s vote to inject $290 million into Transantiago. The right has no interest in bailing out Bachelet, and prefers instead to talk vaguely of a complete “redesign.” They’re banking on the idea that the money will not solve the system’s problems, and view it as an issue that can unify the right in the longer term.

Meanwhile, drivers of one of the Transantiago bus companies had a successful strike, obtaining salary increases and other benefits. I would think they believed, correctly, that since the companies have been criticized for some of the problems, they would be more willing to negotiate.

Read more...

Transantiago

A question now in Chile is whether former President Lagos should come and provide testimony to the congressional commission investigating Transantiago. He has said he is willing. This would suit the Bachelet administration, which surely would like him to share the blame for the design.

My initial impression here is that the general idea is solid. Anyone who has been in Chile remembers the confusing system of yellow smoke-belching buses, which has now been replaced by larger, more fuel efficient buses. You buy your fares ahead of time and the system appears much more efficient. I took the metro today, which was no more crowded than before, suggesting the kinks are getting worked out (I haven’t yet taken a bus but of course see them everywhere).

Bachelet will probably not live down the anger generated by the initial chaos, but if they get the financing figured out, I think this could be beneficial for santiaguinos.

Read more...

U.S. business in Chile

I've just arrived in Santiago for two weeks, to discover that the ultimate in U.S. culture has come to Chile. That's right, Chuck E. Cheese's is here. My kids aren't with me so fortunately I can avoid it.

Read more...

Tact

It’s one thing that Hugo Chávez has yet to figure out. Lula just chided him for calling the Brazilian Senate “parrots” of Washington, because Chávez needs that very same senate to approve Venezuela’s membership in Mercosur. Earlier in the year, Chávez apologized after an identical incident where he criticized the Chilean senate, which put Bachelet in a difficult position.

Calling people parrots, stooges, puppets, pawns, lackeys, etc. may play well to an internal audience, but can actually have an adverse effect on achieving policy goals and cultivating alliances. Interestingly, the Bush administration has become more muted in recent months—no references to Hitler, Stalin et al.

Read more...

Adios immigration bill?

Harry Reid could not get the votes to end debate and have a final vote on the immigration bill. It’s not officially dead, as there will be much maneuvering behind the scenes, but it is on its last legs. Already it was bleeding from a thousand cuts, as opponents had a long list of amendments to attach. Remember, too, that this is the Senate, which has been more open to compromise than the House, even after the change of party majority.

So we end up with nothing. As I’ve written before, I think many people have convinced themselves that we don’t need the workers who are now coming into the country illegally. The point system was intended to bring only “desired” workers, and low-skilled jobs would somehow magically get filled. And if we build more fence and add more Border Patrol, more sensors, unmanned drones, and cameras, then this whole problem will disappear of its own accord.

I don't have any good answers. There were things I didn’t like about the bill, but I wonder whether it is possible for any bill to have everything I like, or everything anyone likes. I’ll just end with a quote from Trent Lott:

“Are we men and women or mice?” Mr. Lott asked. “Are we going to slither away from this issue and hope for some epiphany to happen? No. Let’s legislate. Let’s vote.”

Read more...

Chilean economic growth

The Chilean economy is exceeding expectations, with average growth of over 6% for the year.

Bachelet will get criticized anyway. For the left, she is not leftist enough. The right, meanwhile, is making lots of money, but feels she is an obstacle to making even more.

Read more...

Student bloggers

Michelle is leading a group of Georgia Tech students doing a summer exchange program in Mexico at Monterey Tec and asked me to help publicize the blog they've put together. So go check out Tech on Tec.

Read more...

OAS and energy

I hoped there might be some debate at the OAS meeting about the energy direction the region should take, but it didn’t happen.

The Declaration of Panama explicitly endorses biofuels and participation of the private sector, but interestingly this did not seem to have generated any controversy. The RCTV case and the vote on Venezuela’s seat in the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights got the bulk of attention. The Uruguayan delegation even questioned the entire discussion about energy and poverty.

Obviously, energy is only one of many challenges Latin America faces, but it deserves more public debate and scrutiny. In the NYT, former Peruvian President Alejandro Toledo just published an Op-Ed, but it was about Chávez, and the only reference to the OAS meeting was about RCTV.

Read more...

Coca cultivation

Via Plan Colombia and Beyond: Remember the billions of dollars we’re pumping into the Colombian military and private defense contractors, all the chemical spraying, the Ecuador-Colombia border disputes over eradication policies, etc., etc.? All that, and Colombian coca cultivation has increased. As of right now, President Uribe made the revelation, but the U.S. government has yet to admit it.

Don’t forget that just last month we learned that coca cultivation in Peru had increased. But wait, there’s more. Two months ago, we learned that coca cultivation in Bolivia had remained stable. In other words, the country with the government we like the least, with a cocalero president, is achieving our foreign policy goals most effectively.

Read more...

OAS and RCTV

The OAS General Assembly opened yesterday, and the general theme is “Energy for Sustainable Development.” That alone will be interesting to watch because of the disagreements about moving forward on ethanol production, which goes along “food vs. fuel” and “corn vs. sugar” axes.

But the timing of the meeting means that the sideshow will be RCTV. The U.S. submitted a copy of the Senate’s call for the OAS to do “something.” The question is whether representatives of other countries really want to get involved, as there is resistance to hopping on the U.S. bandwagon. Plus, strong statements from the U.S. tend to backfire and create more sympathy for Chávez.

The Venezuelan government has said that discussion of RCTV would constitute “interference,” but if you’re a member of the OAS, then you have agreed to submit to such interference. That’s the whole point, though if the debate gets contentious Chávez may well follow up on his threat to withdraw.

At any rate, you could easily come up with a Fantasy OAS game. Count up and get points for every mention of:

--lapdog

--lackey

--censorship

--freedom

--empire

--silencing

--oligarchy

--imperialism

Read more...

Republicans and immigration

The NYT has a pretty good discussion of how Bush’s push for immigration reform is making waves in the Republican Party. Unfortunately, the article doesn’t provide any numbers. I’d like to see breakdowns about exactly which Republicans favor or don’t favor the proposal (age, gender, religion, residence, etc.).

Also, Shannon O’Neil published an Op-Ed in the Washington Post about how the debate needs to address demography and also bureaucratic capacity, as our immigration institutions are notoriously overworked and underperforming. I'd say the debate over bureaucratic capacity should extend to Mexico as well, since its government has to assist in the process.

The heat is on next week.

Read more...

RCTV aftermath

Let’s set aside the normative debate over RCTV for a moment (debated very extensively here) and just address the political implications. I have to wonder whether Chávez grasped how extensive the outcry would be. At least for the moment, what he’s done is to breath new life into a splintered opposition. A week ago, outside Venezuela virtually no one had heard of RCTV, but now opposition leaders and RCTV executives get more attention than ever. A google news search of “rctv” gives me 2,742 results from all over the world.

The government claims that the protests are all manipulated, though thus far the evidence they present is thin at best. For Chávez, however, it’s a moot point—controlled or not, manipulated or not, the protests started because he handed his opponents a gift on a golden platter. They needed an issue to grab onto, something to unite them and to bring unfavorable international attention. Now let's see whether this escalates or whether it just eventually fizzles out.

Read more...