Sunday, September 26, 2010

Brief thoughts on Venezuela's election

Perhaps the best thing about the Venezuelan legislative election today is that it will soon be over.  The vast majority of commentary is useless--so, for example, the Miami Herald discusses how Twitter is huge in Venezuela, yet admits it has no noticeable effect on elections.  And that one isn't even terribly politicized.  For the ultimate in hyperactive updating, just follow Hugo Chávez's Twitter account at @chavezcandanga

Once you strip away the hyperbole, Venezuelans are voting.  Unlike five years ago, the opposition is calling on everyone to vote, and it is expected to be free and fair.  Polls have shown a large number of undecideds, and today they will make up their minds and be counted.  For these reasons, you may call Venezuela lots of things--and political scientists are always eager to create new subtypes--but not a dictatorship.

Read more...

Saturday, September 25, 2010

Immigration reform and NC

Franco Ordoñez at the Charlotte Observer has an interesting post about Democrats, immigration, and North Carolina.  It has national implications, and is a very good reminder (if anyone really needed one) of how immigration does not fall as neatly along partisan lines as is often portrayed.

The N.C. Democratic Party is paying for a mailer in a state Senate race that calls for "bringing the Arizona immigration crackdown to North Carolina."
...
The mailer features a photograph of Redwine, a former state House leader, outside a prison talking with a prison guard. The headline reads: "David Redwine wants to throw the book at CEOs who just won't quit hiring illegal immigrants."
The Democratic Party in the state wants to win.  This is not a pretty way to try, but it highlights the local constituency vs. national party split on the issue.  To avoid further disaster on the national level (which is guaranteed by the state of the economy) the Democratic Party has to ignore these discrepancies.  This will become a problem eventually when the party needs pro-reform votes.

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Friday, September 24, 2010

Remittances and development

There has been considerable academic debate about the economic development impact of remittances.  Some of the key arguments:

Positive:


--Remittances bypass the state and therefore promote economic development at the local level, unhindered by bureaucracy or corruption

--they inject capital into Latin American economies that otherwise simply would not be there, thus alleviating poverty

Negative:


--they serve to intensify economic dependence on the developed world, primarily the United States

--they tend to be spent on consumer goods as opposed to being used to create new businesses or infrastructure at home


In this context, it is good to see the State Department's announcement of the Building Remittance Investment for Development Growth and Entrepreneurship (BRIDGE) with El Salvador and Honduras.  The idea is that remittances flow through domestic financial institutions, so with assistance offer an opportunity to use that money for public works, commercial development, etc.  This wouldn't affect anyone's access to their money, and presumably would act like a bank does (though the specific "in-country financial institutions" are not named).

A critical aspect of such a plan, though, is to avoid the problem noted above of having the money sucked away through corruption.  That issue isn't mentioned.

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Thursday, September 23, 2010

A Pledge to America: Immigration

The Republican Party has released a draft of "A Pledge to America," (text here) which is intended to be like 1994's Contract for America.  Here is the part about immigration:

• Establish Operational Control of the Border: We must take action to secure our borders, and that action starts with enforcing our laws. We will ensure that the Border Patrol has the tools and authorities to establish operational control at the border and prohibit the Secretaries of the Interior and Agriculture from interfering with Border Patrol enforcement activities on federal lands.
• Work with State and Local Officials to Enforce Our Immigration Laws: The problem of illegal immigration and Mexican drug cartels engaged in an increasingly violent conflict means we need all hands on deck to address this challenge. We will reaffirm the authority of state and local law enforcement to assist in the enforcement of all federal immigration laws.
• Strengthen Visa Security: To stop terrorists like Omar Farouk Abdulmutallab, the Christmas Day bomber, we will require the Department of Homeland Security to review all visa applications at high-risk consular posts and prevent aliens from attempting to avoid deportation after having their visas revoked.


In practice, it is fair to say that this will entail larger government, more spending, and more judicial activism:

First, there will be no immigration reform.  Of course, this is not surprising.

Second, the reference to cabinet members means that there will be no environmental or--ironically--private ownership questions taken into consideration for a greater government role in enforcement.

Third, the patchwork of state and local laws will expand governments' spending and presence, thus almost certainly creating a situation that is even more confusing and contentious.  That will mean more court rulings and ultimately the Supreme Court will help make the law.

Fourth, there would be an increase--perhaps drastic--of spending on the Border Patrol.

Fifth, since the system is already overloaded, there will be a drastic increase of spending and government presence to try and find every person who has overstayed a visa.  Immigration reform would greatly reduce that load, but see number one.

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Wednesday, September 22, 2010

Ironic quote of the day: Peru

"Mr García has won more applause abroad than at home, where his approval rating hovers at about 30 per cent."

--From a Financial Times article talking about how great Alan García is.

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Tuesday, September 21, 2010

Mexico and Colombia

In an LA Times op-ed, former U.S. Ambassador to Colombia Thomas McNamara applauds Hillary Clinton's comparison of Mexico today and Colombia in the 1980s.  As I was just writing this morning, a flood of Colombians have fled the country, creating a huge problem for Ecuador in particular.  If we want to make that comparison, then we also need to realize that there will be a similar flood of Mexican refugees, and they will be heading for the United States.

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Colombian refugees

For the first time, Colombia and Ecuador will hold meetings to discuss their serious refugee problem.  This is very good news, and the issue in general deserves far more media coverage.  Four thoughts:

First, this is one of numerous gestures President Santos has made to neighboring countries.  The change from Alvaro Uribe is palpable.  The relationship between Ecuador and Colombia has already improved considerably.

Second, and following that, it is really terrible that it took this long.  Over 50,000 Colombians have fled into Ecuador and become refugees, and tens of thousands more without legal status, while the Uribe administration essentially tried to sweep it under the rug.  Ecuador expects another 15,000 this year.

Third, the fight against the FARC cannot be considered successful when such flows of refugees continue.  It just means the conflict is spreading out.

Fourth, although Santos insists that conflict with the FARC is a domestic issue, this is one of many examples of how that is inaccurate.

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Monday, September 20, 2010

Colin Powell gets it

News outlets have focused on Colin Powell's appearance on Meet the Press, particularly his statement about undocumented immigrants:

They're all over at my house doing things whenever I call for repairs, and I'm sure you've seen them at, at your house.  We've got to find a way to bring these people out of the darkness and give them some kind of status.

But he made another--and much more important--statement that goes along with research I've been doing with my dad and many blog posts I've made:

In the next few years, we will discover that, between the ages of 15 and 64, the working ages of our people, most of those are going to be kept in that age group because of immigration and the children of immigrants, whereas in other parts of the world the age of the population's getting older and fewer people are working. 

Bravo!  We need more people to understand that reality.  We pretend these demographic dynamics do not exist, but there are indeed irresistible forces.  With the right kinds of policies, they can work to the country's advantage.

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Sunday, September 19, 2010

DREAM on

Following up on Friday's post about the DREAM Act, Mary Giovagnoli at Immigration Impact has a concise summary about the procedural issues in the Senate that it faces.  It should be coming up for a cloture vote on Tuesday.

She has a nice quote, and actually something that pops into my head all the time when I hear people complain that the president or Congress is "playing with politics."

At some point, it just gets tiresome to hear everyone talking about playing politics. After all, this is politics, isn’t it?

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Friday, September 17, 2010

Immigration and losing

Almost since his inauguration, President Obama has been saying he is committed to immigration reform, while trying to placate advocates of reform who keep noting that he has in fact not done anything about it.  That has become even more of an issue this year because Obama is concerned about getting hammered in midterm elections, and the hammering could be worse if reform advocates and/or Latino voters stay home in frustration.


The administration's current plan is to insert the DREAM Act into a defense spending bill, where it faces very shaky odds.  The idea if that if it passes, then it is a major victory.  If it fails, then Republicans--who will be very vocal about their opposition--will get the blame and people may well even be energized enough to vote against them in November.

The essential problem with this strategy is that it is openly a political ploy.  Can you satisfy constituents by setting up a situation that you and everyone else believes is going to fail just to show you made some effort?  In other words, how much do voters respond to losing as opposed to winning?  These sorts of questions could easily be answered by a poll that probed Obama's commitment to immigration reform and who people blame for the absence of reform.

UPDATE:  There were not enough votes to bring it up for a vote (it sounds even stranger when worded like that).  The finger pointing will now  begin in earnest.

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Thursday, September 16, 2010

Mexico's wall

Mexico is building a wall along part of its border with Guatemala.  From IPS:

According to the head of customs for Mexico's tax administration, Raúl Díaz, in order to stop boats carrying contraband, the southern Mexican state of Chiapas is building a wall along the border river Suchiate, similar to the one the United States is building along its southern border with Mexico. 

"It could also prevent the free passage of illegal immigrants," admitted the Mexican official. 


The irony here should be obvious.  It is unfortunate that Mexico is copying the United States even while it also criticizes what it copies.  Here is President Felipe Calderón in 2006:


Mr Calderon said he deplored the move because "the fence doesn't resolve anything".
"Humanity committed a grave mistake in building the Berlin Wall," he said.
"I'm sure that the United States is committing a grave mistake in building this fence." Outgoing Mexican President Vicente Fox called the plans "shameful".
 That assessment remains accurate for both the United States and Mexico.

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Wednesday, September 15, 2010

Piñera and human rights

Curious turn of affairs with some military officers convicted of human rights abuses in Chile.  They initiated a hunger strike, which they just ended, or at least suspended while they had a few completos.  Meanwhile, they refer to themselves as "political prisoners."  My sense is that they have generated more publicity than sympathy.

But as El Mostrador points out, there is a unique aspect to the situation--they have admitted publicly that they are guilty.

Al comienzo de la proclama, señalan que son “miembros de las Fuerzas Armadas, de Orden y Seguridad, en adelante “los presos políticos militares, que cometimos delitos contra la seguridad de las personas (más conocidos por violaciones a los derechos humanos) en el período comprendido entre el 11 de septiembre de 1973 y el 11 de marzo de 1990″.
I assume they took this stance to facilitate asking for their sentences to be commuted.  Its symbolic value, though, is also important, as formal and public declarations of guilt are not common.

Also noteworthy is something I've written about before.  Before the election, Sebastián Piñera promised to limit prosecutions and make them go more quickly.  He has not fulfilled that promise, and so the main organization of retired officers is not happy.  Piñera walks a fine line, as he is not "right wing" in the conventional sense of the word, yet is also sensitive to his very conservative base of support.

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Tuesday, September 14, 2010

Obama and Latin America

Susan Kaufman Purcell argues that economic uncertainty in the United States, which is Barack Obama's fault, has adversely affected U.S. policy toward Latin America, especially in terms of not passing FTAs and creating polarization that makes immigration reform less likely.

Regardless of whether you agree at whose feet blame should be laid, it's obviously a president-centric argument, which creates problems.  President Bush's economic policies were very different than Obama's, yet he also failed to enact immigration reform or pass FTAs even in times of economic growth.  If we end up with the same result, probably we're focusing on the wrong variables.  Arguments based on presidents and personalities are very tricky, and usually ignore other important factors.  Congress, for example, is totally absent in this case.

President-centric arguments also tend to ignore the fact that U.S. policy toward Latin America is characterized far more by continuity than change.  In 20 or 30 years, will we perceive such major differences between Obama and other presidents?

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Monday, September 13, 2010

Quote of the day: Cuba

I'm sorry to say it, but I think the expression, "The Cuban model doesn't even work for us anymore" means, "The Cuban model doesn't even work for us anymore."

--Jeffrey Goldberg, after Fidel Castro claimed he meant the opposite of what he said.

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The Chilean transition ends yet again

I just published an edited volume on Chile, and my chapter* focuses on the idea of "transition" in Chilean politics, focusing on civil-military relations (I plan on getting a PDF of it on my academic website soon).  Since Patricio Aylwin, presidents have wanted to declare the transition over for political reasons, but this creates conflict with other groups (such as both human rights organizations and the military itself) who are concerned that such a declaration will had adverse consequences.

Now El Mercurio reports that Sebastián Piñera will give a speech at the UN in which he will say the Chilean transition is over.

En la Asamblea General, en cambio, su intervención de 15 minutos tendrá un cariz más político. Si bien Cancillería y Presidencia aún trabajan en los contenidos del discurso, en el ministerio anticipan que abordará el concepto de que la llegada al poder del primer gobierno de centroderecha tras 20 años de Concertación marca el fin de la transición en el país.

In the chapter, I discuss all the many various ways in which "transition" has been defined.  This is a new one, because of course it was not possible until this year.  I will be curious to hear the response from human rights advocates, who are greatly concerned that such a declaration symbolizes "moving forward" and ending human rights trials related to the dictatorship.

*Gregory Weeks, "The Transition is Dead, Long Live the Transition: Civil-Military Relations and the Limits of Consensus."  In Silvia Borzutzky and Gregory B. Weeks (eds.). The Bachelet Government: Conflict and Consensus in Post-Pinochet Chile (Gainesville: University Press of Florida, 2010): 67-84.

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Sunday, September 12, 2010

Desperate but not serious

I would like someone to do an analysis of how the word "desperate" is used for Latin American politics.  José Cárdenas at Foreign Policy's Shadow Government sees Fidel Castro's appearance as an act of a desperation.  As usual, his argument is not compelling.

It made me think, though, of how often I've seen the word "desperate" used, usually when a political situation turns in a direction someone does not like.  They rationalize it as meaning that the "bad guys" are "desperate" because they're feeling pinched by the "good guys."  It's a sort of cognitive dissonance, where you want something to fail so badly that you use your opponent's success as a way to claim failure.

Some recent examples:

The FARC is desperate.

The Juárez cartel is desperate.

Narcotraffickers use submarines because they are desperate.

The Zetas are in Central America because they are desperate.

Fidel Castro has been desperate for years (maybe forever?)

Alvaro Uribe was desperate, at least according to Hugo Chávez.

Oh yeah, and the Venezuelan opposition is desperate too.

Though for José Cárdenas, of course Chávez is also desperate.

And these were examples I managed to pluck out quickly.  There are countless more.

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Saturday, September 11, 2010

Obama and Mexico

Strange column from Georgie Anne Geyer.  She thinks the Obama administration should be doing more to combat violence in Mexico, but instead of giving specific policy prescriptions, she blames the administration for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

It does seem strange, doesn't it, that we are fighting two wars halfway across the world in countries we barely know, and yet we all but ignore this lethally dangerous situation in our backyard. But then, there is no foreign policy architecture in this administration, no decisions on what is primary and what is not, no sense of what is necessary and what is expendable.

Two big problems here.  One is that Obama did not start those two other wars and would love to be rid of them.  Two is that the administration has been focused a lot on Mexico (such as Hillary Clinton's "insurgency" comments, later contradicted by Obama).  The administration has spent hundreds of millions of dollars on the Mérida Initiative.  We can debate how much is needed, and how fast, and for what, but that is not exactly "ignoring" Mexico.

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Friday, September 10, 2010

My MOC

I've blogged periodically about Rep. Sue Myrick, my member of Congress, and her claims about Middle Eastern terrorists, Hugo Chávez, the Mexican border, etc.  She keeps asking (very indignantly) the Department of Homeland Security to launch an investigation and create a task force, but it keeps responding that it has no evidence of what she is talking about.  As a matter of fact, DHS offered her a private intelligence briefing on the matter, but she didn't want one!

After Myrick made her request in June, she told the website NewsmaxTV that she was offered a private intelligence briefing by the Homeland Security department, but declined because she didn't want to be bound by secrecy and wanted to focus on her request for a task force.

In other words, she apparently did not want to learn actual facts.

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Thursday, September 09, 2010

Quote of the day: Cuba

"The Cuban model doesn't even work for us anymore."

--Fidel Castro

Of course, that is the statement that has everyone abuzz.  In his article, though, Jeffrey Goldberg provides the most logical explanation for it, which is to provide cover for Raúl Castro's market reforms rather than to repudiate the revolution.  Yet it is always strange to see how advocates of a Marxist revolution claim it needs an injection of capitalism to survive, and how Fidel Castro is on board.

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Wednesday, September 08, 2010

Fidel and Iran

Fidel Castro calls Iran on anti-Semitism and Holocaust denial.  Good for him, and hopefully Hugo Chávez will listen at least a little bit the next time he praises the Iranian revolution.


Castro advised Ahmadinejad, a repeated Holocaust denier, to understand the "unique" history of anti-Semitism.
"I don't think anyone has been slandered more than the Jews," Castro told the magazine. "I would say much more than the Muslims. They have been slandered much more than the Muslims because they are blamed and slandered for everything. No one blames the Muslims for anything.
"The Jews have lived an existence that is much harder than ours," Castro told the magazine. "There is nothing that compares to the Holocaust."


Governments can have diplomatic and economic relationships with Iran without becoming terrorist threats, but that does not mean they should whitewash the regime.

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Tuesday, September 07, 2010

Central America and TPS

Mike Allison has a good post on Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for Central American migrants.  It is a well-intentioned policy that has unfortunately become distorted in various ways.

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Migrants in Mexico

Check out Amnesty International heart wrenching report on migrants in Mexico: Invisible Victims: Migrants on the Move in Mexico, which I had not seen before.  The plight of migrants going through Mexico has deservedly been receiving a lot of attention in the past few years, even before the recent massacre.  There isn't anything really new in the report, but the following highlights the entrenched corruption that makes effective reform so difficult:


Many of the cases detailed in this report highlight the involvement of the authorities at some level in many abuses against migrants. Far too often, officials provide criminal gangs with cover to commit abuses or simply fail to intervene to prevent a crime being committed against a migrant. Failure to take action to prevent a crime or to record and effectively investigate a crime amounts to concealment and needs to be taken as seriously as complicity or acquiescence (p. 38).


The report has 26 different recommendations, though it ends up sounding a bit more like a wish list than realistic prescriptions.


h/t Aguachile

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Monday, September 06, 2010

Journalism, policy, and political science

I've been following the "political journalism vs. political science" debate in the blogosphere, though I did not go to APSA.  I have to say that I find the debate a bit confused and also not well attuned to comparative politics (was there a comparativist there?).  In particular, "being relevant to journalists" and "being relevant to policy makers" are often conflated, but they are very different.  So Robert Farley writes:

The question of subfield prominence also bears more attention.  By and large, IR and comparative haven’t had the same impact on the journalist community in either their quantitative or qualitative forms.  I think that several major concepts/grand theories from both comparative and IR have found their way into the general policy conversation (deterrence theory, for example) but it’s more difficult to find uses of clear, sound political science research.  

Matthew Yglesias accepts this at face value without even questioning it, and barely even mentions comparative politics.  But it is exaggerated.  I am not even that high up on the academic food chain, but I get calls from reporters, both from small and large outlets, who are interested in figuring out ideological swings in Latin America, Chilean politics, dynamics of immigration, etc.  That is not the same as having reporters discuss specific hypotheses from comparative politics, but anytime a professor talks to a reporter, he or she is using their own research and reading to inform the discussion.

At the same time, I do agree with Kindred Winecoff that reporters really should read major academic works on the topics they're investigating.  But I am not entirely upset if they take the effort to call people in academia who know what they're talking about.

I would also add that getting into the "general policy conversation" is separate from journalism.  Arturo Valenzuela, who is the Obama administration's key policy maker for Latin America, and was also in that position for Bill Clinton, is a widely known and influential comparativist (though, interestingly, he co-wrote a very good book about Chile with a reporter for a non-specialist audience, and obviously was not punished for it).  Frank Mora, who holds a high-level position on Latin America at the Defense Department, is also a comparative/IR scholar.  My colleague up the road at Davidson College, Russell Crandall, is also working for the Obama administration on Latin America.  They are intensely involved in the policy discussion, and bring an academic background to policy making.

As for writing to a non-specialist audience being punished in academia, I think you cannot generalize so much.  Some departments do so, but my feeling is that they are the minority.  A more precise argument would be that you are punished if you write only for a non-specialist audience without doing more rigorous academic work at the same time. Yet even more precise is that the "punishment" is mostly relevant for junior professors without tenure, because that could mean losing their job.

This debate often gets whiny, but it is a good one to have.  It is useful to think about what impact we have, or want to have, beyond academia.

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Sunday, September 05, 2010

Latin American economies

We hear a lot about economic recovery in Latin America, but the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean has a noteworthy buzzkill:


Exports that most increased were natural resources from South America at the expense of manufactured products and services with varying degrees of technological content, ECLAC said.
Statistics for the period show the region has reverted to an export structure based on prime materials similar to that of 20 years ago.


Ah, good old dependency theory.  Like the undead, it just doesn't quite ever go away.  You export primary products and import finished goods.  In Central America and the Caribbean, dependency is even more pronounced because remittances are becoming more and more central, and of course their flow relies not only on the U.S. economy but also U.S. immigration policy.

It is also noteworthy that this transcends ideology.  Governments may disagree on exactly who makes the profits, and how the proceeds get distributed, but they agree on where they should come from.

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Saturday, September 04, 2010

Immigration and "left"

The immigration debate is strange in many ways, but here is one more example.  If you favor acknowledging the realities of market supply and demand, desire less government intrusion in people's lives, and argue that giving individuals more freedom and opportunity will make the United States stronger and more secure, then that means you are "moving leftward."

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Friday, September 03, 2010

Juxtaposition: Daniel Ortega

Daniel Ortega wants more help from the United States Drug Enforcement Agency

AND

Daniel Ortega says U.S. intelligencies agencies are evil and plotting a coup against him

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More from my member of Congress

My member of Congress is at it again, this time with an op-ed in the Washington Times.  She says that an indictment handed down by the Southern District Court of New York may show a connection between Hezbollah and the FARC.  Or sort of.

The first problem is that I cannot find a record or text of this indictment anywhere, not even at the court's website.  I can't imagine the Congresswoman is making it up, but for now we have only her version of the indictment.  That version is riddled with passive tense ("it was reported"  By whom?) and innuendo.  For example, a car bomb went off in Ciudad Juárez.  Hezbollah uses car bombs.  Ergo, Hezbollah is training Mexicans.

Is is possible that international terrorist organizations coordinate?  Obviously yes, but  I do wish the Congresswoman would wait until she had more concrete facts before trying to get everyone riled up.

h/t boz from a previous post about my member of Congress.

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Thursday, September 02, 2010

Trends in illegal immigration

From the new Pew Hispanic Center report:


The annual inflow of unauthorized immigrants to the United States was nearly two-thirds smaller in the March 2007 to March 2009 period than it had been from March 2000 to March 2005, according to new estimates by the Pew Hispanic Center.

This sharp decline has contributed to an overall reduction of 8% in the number of unauthorized immigrants currently living in the U.S.-to 11.1 million in March 2009 from a peak of 12 million in March 2007, according to the estimates. The decrease represents the first significant reversal in the growth of this population over the past two decades.


Several points to make here.  First, demography accounts for some of this, as the supply for working age people gradually tries to meets demand, and so the pace slows down.  Part of the reason for the huge influx in past years was because of the demographic fit between the U.S. and Latin America (plug again for my forthcoming book).  Put simply, the U.S. was old and Latin America was young.  Once you get more young migrants in the U.S., and thereby fewer young people in Latin America, the fit is no longer so close.

Second, it's not always clear what people are doing.  We know from many studies (including this one, though it remains a bit vague) that there is no evidence of mass return migration.  There may still be circular migration, but not large scale permanent return.  But if the flow of undocumented immigrants continues, and the undocumented population decreases, then how do we account for that?

Third, we won't be able to make very confident conclusions about causation until the U.S. economy picks up again.  An essential policy question is how much of the drop is related to enforcement.  Only once there is more hiring, new construction, etc. can we get a good sense of how much enforcement matters.

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Wednesday, September 01, 2010

Media freedom in Latin America

Newsweek asks why there are so many crackdowns on the media at a time when Latin America is the most democratic it's ever been.  It is a question well worth asking, though the article gets too much in the "good government" (mostly right) vs. "bad government" ( mostly left) mode (and it also includes a bizarre non sequitur about spanking children).  Colombia gets a pass despite having more journalists killed this year than last, though I suppose the logic is that a few people killed for reporting is not a big deal when dozens were murdered in past years.

But the most glaring omission is Honduras, which is not mentioned despite having eight journalists murdered already this year, and becoming one of the most dangerous countries in the world for journalists.  The media is under such assault in Honduras that even the Miami Herald published an editorial condemning it.

Overall, it is something everyone should pay closer attention to, though it would be nice to see a higher quality treatment of the issue in the MSM.

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Tuesday, August 31, 2010

Costs of enforcement

David Francis at the Christian Science Monitor write about an important point that I've raised periodically, and which gets far too little attention: the cost of immigration enforcement without reform.


Beside the moral, humanitarian, and legal issues surrounding illegal immigrants, their apprehension poses a sizable financial cost. In Arizona, police could arrest them under the new state law, but keeping them in already crowded jails costs roughly $100 a day per person. For 5,000 people, imprisonment costs could add up to $182.5 million a year. That's a hefty charge for a state struggling with a budget deficit of at least $368 million.
Presumably Arizona could save money by handing illegal immigrants over to the federal government for deportation. In fiscal 2008, the US deported 369,221 people. Deportations rose to 389,834 in 2009 under the Obama administration, and are predicted to reach 400,000 this fiscal year.
Whether Washington will pay for more deportations is problematic. The United States deports each year less than 4 percent of its estimated 11 million illegal immigrants. At that rate, it would take more than two decades to deport all of them.


One obvious conclusion is that even if the Arizona law is upheld, it simply won't be enforced.  The ultimate irony is that the law was written precisely because the federal government was passing laws it could not enforce.  States may well just be copying the blueprint of legislative failure.

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Monday, August 30, 2010

Logic of violence in Venezuela

Hugo Chávez blames Venezuela's high murder rate on capitalism:

"They want to attribute the violence to me," Chavez said. "Violence is one of the visible and terrible effects of social injustice, of capitalism, of the model the bourgeoisie imposed on us."

His basic argument, then, is that capitalism increases violence, and socialism decreases it.  But if murder rates are either constant or rising in Venezuela, that means he is saying the country is either the same or more capitalist than when he took power over a decade ago.  That might be true, though by this logic it means he is also saying that he isn't socialist at all, and has achieved no socialist goals.

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Sunday, August 29, 2010

SB 1070 and the UN

Wow.  The State Department has apparently included the Obama administration's efforts to block SB 1070 as part of its human rights report to the United Nations High Commissioner on Human Rights.  Although I find lots of mentions, I cannot find text of the report.  The UN had previously expressed concern that the law violated human rights agreements the U.S. has already ratified.

We already knew the administration's opposition to the bill, but acknowledging a controversial law as an international human rights concern is rare.  So rare that I can't think of a precedent.  It highlights Kathryn Sikkink's work on human rights and international institutions, where gradually human rights concerns gain traction even over very strong states.

The probable angry reaction will also reflect the fact that in the U.S. we are very selective about when the UN should be influential and when it shouldn't.

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Saturday, August 28, 2010

Quote of the day: Venezuela

From the AP:

The survey of 1,500 people nationwide in late June and early July had a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points, said Cabrera, who is vice president of the polling firm. He said the poll was financed by a group of private businesses, which he declined to identify.

Polling is always controversial in Venezuela, but those commissioned by anonymous businesses that almost certainly hate Hugo Chávez are especially questionable.

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Friday, August 27, 2010

Regional response to the FARC

Both Brazil and Ecuador have echoed Colombia's rejection of the FARC's request to use Unasur as a forum for discussing the Colombian conflict.  The argument was that it is not Unasur's place to do so unless requested by the Colombian government.  They also indicated agreement with the government's demands that the FARC lay down arms, etc. before there are any talks.

I maintain that this is a regional problem that needs a regional response, but the fact that other countries affected by the FARC are standing with Colombia is a positive sign.  With luck it could become part of regional coordination to end the conflict.

The media doesn't mention it too often, but despite all the public tension, the governments of Colombia and Ecuador have been working together closely in fighting the FARC since Colombia bombed Ecuador.  Even the State Department's recent Country Reports on Terrorism made extensive note of Ecuador's efforts.

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Thursday, August 26, 2010

Peer review overboard

Very interesting piece in the New York Times about putting academic journal articles online for peer review.  Normally, a manuscript gets several anonymous reviews, at which point the editor (e.g. me at The Latin Americanist) decides whether to accept (very rare), revise and resubmit, or reject.

Mixing traditional and new methods, the journal posted online four essays not yet accepted for publication, and a core group of experts — what Ms. Rowe called “our crowd sourcing” — were invited to post their signed comments on the Web site MediaCommons, a scholarly digital network. In the end 41 people made more than 350 comments, many of which elicited responses from the authors. The revised versions were then reviewed by the quarterly’s editors, who made the final decision to include them in the printed journal, due out Sept. 17.

My first reaction is that there is a "too many cooks" element here.  As an editor at even a small journal, I can tell you it is very time consuming to read through both the articles and the reviews.  350 "mini-reviews" per article manuscript means trying to sift through too much.  But it is not only the bulk--it is also about trying to figure out the qualifications of the people making those suggestions.  When I solicit reviews, I've spent quite a lot of time verifying that the reviewer is qualified.

See more at The Monkey Cage, with the idea that people could register and comment on articles when they're published, which sounds intriguing and with good moderation could spark interesting debates.

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Wednesday, August 25, 2010

This is my member of Congress again

It is frustrating to hear a member of Congress keep repeating things that are simply not true.  I've written before about Rep. Sue Myrick, who thinks terrorists come through Venezuela and then cross the Mexican border to attack us.  She is going around town repeating this and similar stories.


Myrick repeated what she wrote in a June 23 letter to Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano: that Hezbollah has increased its cooperation with Central American drug cartels and poses a threat to security on the southern U.S. border.
Myrick said she worries about Iranians learning Spanish and slipping through the border.

Does is matter to her that even the Department of Homeland Security says she is wrong?  Apparently not.

But Homeland Security spokeswoman Amy Kudwa said Tuesday that, "At this time, DHS does not have any credible information on terrorist groups operating along the Southwest Border."


The frustrating thing is that people believe what members of Congress say, then go repeat them, thus further poisoning the debate over immigration reform (and even U.S.-Latin American relations).


Read more...

Tuesday, August 24, 2010

FARC'd

Along more or less the lines I mentioned yesterday, the Colombian government rejected the FARC's suggestion of using Unasur as a forum for dialogue.

"What the Colombian government demands of the guerrilla is that they free all the hostages without condition, that they cease the activity of kidnapping, and that of planting land mines, and they cease the recruitment of children, which is a modern expression of slavery. Moreover they must be able to demonstrate to the Colombian public that violence is senseless," Garzon said.

The government also argued that it preferred bilateral, rather than multilateral, negotiations.  This isn't a tenable position, however, given the fact that the conflict spills over into neighboring countries.  Like it or not, it's a regional problem.

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Monday, August 23, 2010

The FARC and Unasur

The FARC has written a letter (text here) asking Unasur to act as mediator with the Colombian government.  It is pretty surreal.  All the FARC wants is "peace with social justice" and it is tired of always being asked to make unilateral concessions (by which I guess it means why should it give up some juicy hostages for nothing?).  So it wants Unasur to provide it with a forum through which it can make its own vision of the Colombian conflict known.

I think President Santos' stance has been pretty clear, namely that before any negotiation the FARC will have to make unilateral concessions, such as releasing hostages.  I don't see a problem with providing a forum for establishing guidelines for dialogue.  It could even backfire for the FARC, which has virtually no sympathy anywhere, and so a rant would weaken its position even further.

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Sunday, August 22, 2010

Correa approval

Two days ago I discussed concerns about coups occurring in Latin America.  In Ecuador, for example, 39% believed that a coup was likely in the next twelve months.  Yet we also see that an August 2010 Cedatos/Gallup poll shows Rafael Correa with a 53% approval rating, which has been steady since May.

So we have the unfortunate situation in which Rafael Correa is the most popular president Ecuador has had in some time, he has been in power for over three years after a revolving door (he was the seventh president in a decade) and the military has remained quiet, yet people think it is entirely likely he'll be overthrown anyway.

Guillermo O'Donnell has written a lot about citizenship in new (or re-emerging) democracies.  People must feel engaged and believe they are benefiting from democracy.  In the case of Ecuador, the approval rating is a crude measure, but certainly suggests people do believe that.  Yet based on a recent history of coups, they are skeptical about whether it will last.  That may not come until several presidents have served their full terms, then left office peacefully.

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Saturday, August 21, 2010

I had trouble in getting to immigration reform

I guess I'm glad to see Alberto Gonzales arguing for immigration reform, but his Washington Post op-ed is so vague as to be useless, and utopian to the point of caricature.  This lack of details is frustrating giving the fact that he was Attorney General and should be able to rattle them off.  Instead, we need a policy that is "robust," "fair," "practical," "streamlined," "enforceable," and "capable of effective implementation without enormous delays or many mistakes."

I just kept thinking about I Had Trouble in Getting to Solla Sollew, currently one of my daughters' favorites.  Gonzales envisions a place where there aren't any troubles, or at least very few.  But he does not explain how to get around the Skritz or the Skrink.

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Friday, August 20, 2010

Concern about coups

Flacso (the Facultad Latinoamericana de Ciencia Sociales) has just released a region-wide poll, "Gobernabilidad y convivencia democrática an América Latina."  It is not too uplifting.  For example, 43 percent do not feel safe in their community.

There is also the question of whether respondents believe a coup will occur in the next 12 months.  Here are the percentages of people responding "likely" or "very likely."

Region: 22%

Paraguay: 40%
Ecuador: 39%
Mexico: 34%
Venezuela: 32%
Honduras: 31%
Guatemala: 30%
Bolivia: 26%
Nicaragua: 25%
Argentina: 24%
Colombia: 21%
El Salvador: 16%
Brazil: 15%
DR: 15%
Peru: 14%
Uruguay: 13%
Chile: 7%

Mexico is surprisingly high.  Despite concerns about how the military would act once the PRI was out of power, I have not heard rumblings about a coup, and despite drug-related violence the political system is holding together.

Overall, these numbers are just too high, and they cross ideological lines.  People do not necessary want a coup (though only 49% believe coups should never occur) but their belief in the resilience of democracy has shallow roots.

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Thursday, August 19, 2010

The cost of immigration lawsuits

Enforcement of immigration laws is expensive, something voters don't tend to take into consideration.  Now in Fremont, Nebraska they are also discovering that defense against lawsuits is also pricey.  For a proposed law along similar lines as Arizona, city officials say they need a property tax increase averaging $116 on a $200,000 home.

To be clear here, residents will get a sizable tax increase and nothing in return.  It all goes into the pocket of the guy who a) acts as lawyer for the city; and b) wrote the law.  It is, in sum, a tax increase intended almost solely to make a local Republican lawyer more wealthy.

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Wednesday, August 18, 2010

Thoughts on Cuba travel

One of the more interesting aspects of the Obama administration's decision to ease some specific types of travel to Cuba is that all it does is return to Clinton-era rules.  The usual suspects argue that this will give a boost to the regime, when in fact its impact will be almost exactly nil.  Perhaps it has some symbolic value, as the administration clearly is open to at least the idea of liberalizing relations, but simply switching back to a decade ago will not change U.S. policy toward Cuba too much.

Yet as John McAuliff at The Havana Note points out, it is plausible that more will happen after the midterm elections.  Some of the Republicans who win seats may well want more access to Cuba for businesses.  We'll see how ties to other issues--some of the Cuban Americans Obama needs for immigration oppose liberalization.

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Tuesday, August 17, 2010

Peru poll

Via Americas Quarterly: a new Peru presidential poll.

Keiko Fujimori 20%
Luis Castañeda Lossio 20%
Alejandro Toledo 14%
Ollanta Humala 12%

Further, 50% believe that her education in the U.S. was paid for by state funds, whereas 38% think the investigation is just a ploy to discredit her.  The issue of dipping into state funds while acting as first lady is long-standing and will keep dogging her.  How much Peruvians will care is another question.

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Sunday, August 15, 2010

Illogic of the border security bill

The illogic of the new border security measure goes in several different directions.  Here is one more.  We want immigrants to stand in line and come to the country legally.  Yet to increase border security we will now make it harder for you to get in that line in the first place.


The cost of the legislation is offset by a hefty increase in fees paid primarily by technology companies that hire highly skilled foreign workers under the H1B visa program.
Those firms with more than 50 workers and with more than 50% of those employees from abroad would see the current $320 fee per visa application jump to $2,000. Backers of the fee increase argued that it would help create more U.S. jobs in competitive sectors like technology.


Good--we don't want all those annoying Ph.D.s coming to our country anyway.

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Friday, August 13, 2010

Chuck Schumer and immigration

Two observations about the border security bill that Obama will sign today, and I've made both before.

First, this will not lure members of Congress to support immigration reform because they suddenly think you're "serious" about securing the border.  They will still oppose it.

Second, Chuck Schumer should not be the point man for immigration reform.  In March he was the one arguing simultaneously that illegal immigrants take away jobs, but somehow we need them to do so.  Now he is repeating the falsehood that the border is extremely violent, which study after study shows is untrue.

According to Schumer, the money will provide "the boots on the ground and the resources necessary to combat the crime and violence."  No.  The U.S. side of the border is not violent or crime-ridden.  And although the Mexican side has become more violent, U.S. boots can't hit the ground there.

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Thursday, August 12, 2010

Comments

FYI, if anyone writes a comment and it does not appear, I actually get it via email but apparently it does not always show up on the blog itself--I do not know why.  When this has happened in the past, the comment has shown up eventually.  I am not deleting anything.

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Gabriel Thompson's Working in the Shadows

I really enjoyed Gabriel Thompson's new book Working in the Shadows: A Year of Doing the Jobs [Most] American Won't Do.  Back in 2007 I reviewed his book There's No José Here.  To highlight the plight of low wage immigrant workers, he gets a job picking lettuce in Yuma, Arizona, then in a chicken factory in Russelville, Alabama, and finally a restaurant in New York City.


It is a very well written book, and he captures how incredibly hard the work is.  For example, the lettuce:

I feel like someone must have crept into my bedroom overnight and beaten me on the back with a two-by-four, then continued pounding on the soles of my feet.  I swallow several painkillers and put in my contact lenses, noticing that my eyes are bright red.  My neck is also crimson; I'm lathering myself with sunscreen twice a day, but it doesn't stand a chance against my overactive sweat glands.  There's a also a tennis-ball-size bruise on my right thigh, where the gancho jabs each time I bend (p. 29).

For all three jobs, he wanted to quit early and was relieved when it was done, acknowledging the privilege he had in doing so, when in fact others were doing two such jobs at the same time to make ends meet.  It should surprise no one that there are also all sorts of abuses (interestingly, the lettuce picking had the least) as well.

He actually finds the poultry plant more taxing because it is so fast paced and low skill (not to mention a night shift), whereas picking lettuce required being taught how to do things correctly:

I spend the following week tearing breasts.  I figure a conservative estimate has me going through a breast every four seconds, or 7,200 breasts a shift.  I arrive home each morning with throbbing hands, sleep fitfully throughout the day (I never manage to sleep more than five hours at a time), eat some food, take my ibuprofen, and wait for Kyle to pick me up to start all over again (p. 145).

In New York City he gets a job for a company that delivers decorative trees, but is quickly fired because, as they put it, he was a "happy chicken."  He figured his efforts at banter with other workers made them nervous.  As in Yuma, simply being white makes everyone suspicious.  Then he gets a job as a bicycle delivery man for a Mexican restaurant.  Especially after talking to others who do delivery, he notes "It quickly became obvious that I don't need to 'investigate' the prevalence of illegal wages in the food delivery business.  That's all there is" (p. 270).

He ends with a list of possible policy solutions, though I felt that was rushed and not well developed.  At any rate, the suggestions have been out there a long time--immigration reform, enforcement of minimum wage laws, right to organize unions, etc.  Sadly, it just doesn't happen.  But the next time you have a salad, think of the person who might have been the last to touch the lettuce, only 2-3 days before.  Could you handle that job?

Read more...

Wednesday, August 11, 2010

Quote of the day: Nicaragua

Ortega has Forrest Gumped himself onto all the major battle lines of the struggle that dethroned dictator Anastasio Somoza in 1979, carried the Sandinista movement to power and radically changed Nicaraguan history.


--Tracy Wilkinson reporting in the L.A. Times about the Museum of the Sandinista Victory

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Tuesday, August 10, 2010

Honduras: (I can't get no) dissatisfaction

Orlando J. Pérez, John A. Booth, and Mitchell A. Seligson, "The Honduran 'Catharsis.'"  AmericasBarometer Insights 45 (2010).

This is the latest in the AmericasBarometer series, and again for reasons unknown I receive it as an email before it is on the internet (now I see that it is available at Americas Quarterly).  This is a follow up to an article published last August that I commented on, which noted that in 2008 Hondurans had the highest level of "triply dissastisfied" versus "triply satisfied" respondents with regard to support for democracy, support for national institutions, and evaluation of the government's economic performance.  Now they add data from survey conducted in Honduras earlier this year.  Some highlights:

59% of voting age Hondurans opposed Mel Zelaya's ouster
72% of voting age Hondurans oppose his exile
61% believe it was a coup
70% were opposed to Zelaya's proposed constituent assembly

In 2010, mean levels of "triple disatisfaction" had fallen back to 2006 levels after rising considerably in 2008.  The authors thus argue that the coup created a "catharsis" effect.  They also note, however, that this catharsis is felt almost entirely by economic elites.  Not surprisingly, elites are less dissatisfied and don't support a coup because their interests are not longer threatened.


In 2010, in contrast, with the new administration in power, elites were more supportive of the economic performance of the regime than those in lower wealth quintiles. Elites, however, expressed far more support for coups than Hondurans in lower income quintiles, which suggests that the coup proved satisfactory to the interests of wealthier Hondurans, and reinforced their view that unpopular economic policies can be “cured” by unconstitutional means.


That, in fact, is the most important lesson to be taken from the coup.  It is, of course, a very old story.

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Monday, August 09, 2010

Craig Mullaney's The Unforgiving Minute

I read Craig Mullaney's The Unforgiving Minute: A Soldier's Education, and enjoyed it.  It is a memoir about how Mullaney went to West Point, then to Oxford, and finally to Afghanistan in the early period of the war.  It is a very personal, nuanced and uncompromising view of what being an officer means.  As he is aware, he is therefore opening himself up to criticism regarding his judgment and decisions--read some of the Amazon reviews to get a sense of them (those reviews tend to be either very positive or very negative).

Mullaney is at his best when discussing Afghanistan, and how training, intellectual development, courage, leadership, fear, and friendship all blend together in a sometimes dizzying manner.  In particular, the death of a private under his command soon after he arrives forces him to think hard about what leadership means--and, I would bet, thinking about that young man's death is what later played a large part in deciding to write the book.  It is also interesting to read about the connections between training (such as at West Point) and combat--the seemingly pointless rituals and extreme attention to detail in the former are important, albeit indirectly, in the latter.

Another theme of the book is the relationship between intellectuals and the army.  Mullaney loves reading and learning, and spends a lot of his free time reading.  At times that creates friction as others believe that reading is time not spent training, and even leads to a testosterone-pumped boxing match in Afghanistan.

My only critique is that the book is too long.  In the middle I got tired of the rowing stories at Oxford, for example, which seemed not to connect much to the rest of the story and I found them pretty dull--if you read it, feel free to skim that part and you won't lose much.  One last point, for anyone out there thinking of having an affair: be careful, or your son might write a best-selling book that makes reference to it.

Read more...

Sunday, August 08, 2010

Thoughts on Fidel's speech

Here is the text of Fidel Castro's message to the Cuban legislature.  Here is video.  One of the most interesting aspects of the speech (aside from its uncharacteristic brevity, which has been widely noted) is that it in a time of economic reform in Cuba, his words focused only on foreign affairs.  I would think that current economic reforms are far more relevant to the average Cuban than U.S. policy toward Iran.

That raises the question of whether a) he simply does not support those reforms so chooses not to mention them; or b) he was asked not to mention them.

As for the foreign affairs, times change, I guess.  In 2010 Fidel discusses the dangers of nuclear war, whereas in the early 1980s he wanted the Soviets to launch one.

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Saturday, August 07, 2010

Economic impact of local immigration laws

Huyen Pham and Va H. Pham, "The Economic Impact of Local Immigration Regulation: An Empirical Analysis." Forthcoming from Cardozo Law Review (h/t ImmigrationProf Blog).

Abstract:


A wave of local anti-immigration laws has swept the country, triggering contentious debate and raising significant legal and policy issues. One critical dimension that has been largely ignored, however, is the economic impact of these laws: are jurisdictions with them better off economically than those without them? 
In the first empirical study of this issue, we analyze the economic impact of these laws. The laws take different forms - some authorize local police to enforce federal immigration laws, some restrict benefits like housing and employment to those with legal immigration status, and some require all government transactions to be conducted in English only. Applying statistical analysis to economic data from the U.S. Census Bureau, we find such laws resulted in a 1 to 2 percent drop in employment, or 337 to 675 lost jobs for the average county. This drop in employment includes both authorized and unauthorized workers. We also find that the laws hurt some industries, such as the restaurant industry, while helping others, such as the grocery and liquor store industry. This suggests that affected workers may be switching jobs, rather than leaving a particular jurisdiction altogether. 
Because local immigration regulation has such profound policy impact, local governments considering the efficacy of these laws need to base their decisions on empirical evidence, not assumptions, about the laws’ effect. This Article provides crucial information for that decision making.


So a negative effect, but not very drastic.  This is really interesting, and more of these sorts of studies should be conducted to tease out the ways in which local immigration laws affect communities.  I don't really understand how the laws benefit liquor stores, though I do sometimes cry in my beer.

Read more...

More on the center in Latin America

Michael Shifter writes in Foreign Policy about Latin America's shift to the center:

Latin American Barometer, a comparative public opinion survey that has tracked political attitudes since 1995, reveals that if anything, the region has made a marked shift toward the center. In 2002, 29 percent of Latin Americans identified themselves as centrists; by 2008, that number had jumped to 42 percent.

I agree, but I think his argument needs more explanation.  The "shift" should be viewed in a long-term, historical context as a gradual recovery from the Cold War.  In other words, that "jump" is better understood as part of a slow process rather than a sudden phenomenon.  But this is the sort of analysis we need, rather than the ideologically-driven arguments about the region moving left or right.

It's not surprising, given the region's history, that some measure of political moderation should have taken over in more prosperous times.

Actually, I disagree with that.  It is notable that so many countries remain fairly moderate even in times of economic crisis, especially if you expand the analysis to the entire post-Cold War era.

It might just be that I am tired of reading analyses that suggest Latin American politics is like a ping-pong match that jerks each direction every few years.  (Boz writes about Shifter's article too, though as with Shifter I  agree with him only partially--left and right does matter, just not as much as many claim).

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Friday, August 06, 2010

Country Reports on Terrorism 2009

If you read the State Department's recently released Country Reports on Terrorism 2009 Western Hemisphere Overview something stands out immediately--outside Colombia there are few terrorist threats in the region.  This is good news that deserves more attention.  Even the section on Venezuela is pretty mild stuff, and it admits that Venezuela actually has worked with Colombia on counterterrorism.

And for all the talk about terrorists entering the U.S. through Mexico, we have the following:

No known international terrorist organizations had an operational presence in Mexico and no terrorist incidents targeting U.S. interests and personnel occurred on or originated from Mexican territory.


Alarmism is juicy.  It grabs people's attention, makes for wonderful sound bytes and goes viral until people believe it.  But in this case it is unwarranted and can lead to poor policy decisions.

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One post on plagiarism and then I'm done

The issue of student plagiarism has been a hot topic recently, and in particular a story in the New York Times made email rounds.  The basic argument is that the young generation of today is so immersed in technology that its members happily plagiarize more than past generations, sometimes without even knowing it.

I don't buy it, so I wish we could stop the hand-wringing.

I have a pet peeve about arguments criticizing the current generation versus the past.  Growing up, I read plenty about Gen X, the ridiculous moniker for my own generation, that made no sense to me at all.  Now we hear all about "Millenials" and all their problems.  Well, I want data, and it is in short supply.  The NYT article, for example, was based primarily on talking to some people at three different universities.

I recommend Miguel Centellas' blog post on the topic.  I agree that plagiarism is a constant, and technology actually makes plagiarism easier to spot than in the past.  I have yet to see data showing that students understand plagiarism less than past generations, or that they have a different view of ownership.

However, as I creak toward middle age (or am I already there?) I do understand how easy it is to romanticize the past.  When I was in college, for example, I stopped studying only to help the old and infirm cross the street.  I refused to play video games because they were un-intellectual and I read novels only if they were over 400 pages because my attention span was so long.

But kids these days...

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Thursday, August 05, 2010

More Piñera numbers

More bad news for Sebastián Piñera, this time from Adimark.  In the past month, his approval dropped from 52% to 46%, while disapproval jumped from 34% to 40%.  Approval of the government's job in general fell from 57% to 49%.

A senator from Renovación Nacional tried to blame Piñera's numbers on problems--particularly healthcare and Transantiago--he inherited from Michelle Bachelet.  Yet Bachelet was popular despite these issues.  And anyway, fair or not it's irrelevant.  He's the president now.

Yet there is an upside for him.  While 41% approve of the governing coalition (with 43% disapproval) there is only 33% approval of the Concertación (and 52% disapproval).  So Piñera has problems, but the Concertación is not in a good position to take advantage of them.  The funny thing is that I've written that many times when the coalitions were in opposite positions.  And as a political scientist, I also have to admit that these numbers can't tell us much about long-term trends.  But they're fun.

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Wednesday, August 04, 2010

Right and center in Latin America

Susan Kaufman Purcell's op-ed in the Miami Herald is poorly argued.  She argues that Latin America is moving to the right ideologically, and hopefully this means doing something to Hugo Chávez.  Several problems here:

First, polls show that Latin America has remained quite centrist ideologically, regardless of individual elections.

Second, she admits that the Chilean election was based almost entirely on non-ideological issues.

Third, her claim that Colombians voted for Juan Manuel Santos because of Hugo Chávez is not convincing.

Fourth, you cannot compare the Honduran election to other elections in the region, given the repressive context.

And she misspelled "augur."  I know that's petty, but it bugged me.

Update: In comments Randy Paul also notes that she mentions "Francisco" Calderón.  Nice.

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The Mexican border and crime

The abundance of evidence about the absence of a crime wave at the border is worthy of more attention, though backfire will prevent some of it from getting through.  From the El Paso Times, yet another example:


About 1,700 homicides have occurred in Juárez this year. El Paso has had one.
Despite the rampant bloodshed in Mexico, the overall crime rate in El Paso has decreased slightly this year.


Crime is not only not up, it is going down across the border from a Mexican city that is having incredibly serious problems.  This is begging for fieldwork.

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Tuesday, August 03, 2010

Borzutzky and Weeks Table of Contents

In a recent post about my recently published Chile book, a commenter had asked for a table of contents, so here you go:

Gregory B. Weeks and Silvia Borzutzky, "Introduction"

Peter M. Siavelis, "What it Takes to Win and What it Takes to Govern: Michelle Bachelet and the Concertación"

Robert L. Funk, "Parties, Personalities, and the President: The Challenges of the Bachelet Government's Political Narrative"

Gregory B. Weeks, "The Transition is Dead, Long Live the Transition: Civil-Military Relations and the Limits of Consensus"

Silvia Borzutzky, "Socioeconomic Policies: Taming the Market in a Globalized Economy"

Mary Rose Kubal, "Challenging the Consensus: The Politics of Protest and Policy Reform of Chile's Education System"

Kirsten Sehnbruch, "Unresolved Conflicts within the Consensus: Bachelet's Inheritance of Labor and Employment Issues"

Susan Franceschet, "Continuity or Change? Gender Policy in the Bachelet Administration"

Eduardo Silva and Patricio Rodrigo, "Contesting Private Property Rights: The Environment and Indigenous Peoples"

Aldo C. Vacs, "Conclusion. Paved with Good Intentions: The Bachelet Administration and the Decline of Consensus"

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Capitalism and socialism in Cuba & the U.S.

This BBC story about Raúl Castro and Cuban economic reforms made me think about how Cuba and the U.S. are in essentially opposite positions.

The U.S. is overwhelmingly capitalist, and any increased role of the state in the economy leads to screams of socialism.  Cuba is overwhelmingly socialist, and any decreased role of the state in the economy leads to screams of capitalism.

In the U.S., policy makers cannot say they are implementing socialist reforms.  In Cuba, policy makers cannot say they are implementing capitalist reforms.

Critics blame capitalism for economic problems in the U.S.  Critics blamed socialism for economic problems in Cuba.

And in both cases, despite lots of hot air, nothing much changes.

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Monday, August 02, 2010

CAFTA and other FTAs

The Obama administration is filing a labor law complaint against Guatemala, saying treatment of workers violates CAFTA rules.  The article quotes Chris Sabatini at Americas Society/Council of the America:


He said the decision to file the complaint was in part “an attempt to appease some elements of the A.F.L.-C.I.O. by demonstrating that the labor protections built into Cafta were not empty gestures.” 


I agree, but I would add more for a regional context.  The administration has continually expressed support (albeit tepid) for FTAs with Colombia and Panama, but treatment of labor has slowed them down to almost a halt.  By taking such a measure, the administration is also sending a signal to those who oppose those FTAs that it will take labor issues seriously.

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Paco Ignacio Taibo II's Return to the Same City

Ironically, despite the fact that Mexico City is the reference for Paco Ignacio Taibo II's Return to the Same City, there is less description of it than in many of his other novels, and more action takes place outside it.  The story revolves around a woman who hires Belascoarán Shayne to investigate her sister's murder (with the implication that he should kill the murderer).  Because of a recent attack on him, however, Shayne lives in a sometimes surreal state of paranoia that leaves him, among other things, suddenly finding himself on airplanes when he doesn't remember buying the ticket or boarding.

Then into this compact book we find crammed weapons sales to the Nicaraguan Contras, the guy who cut off Che Guevara's hands, a large band of mariachis, a CIA agent and some baby ducks.  He just manages to pull it back from the brink of unbelievability.  It is an entertaining story, and takes you all over Mexico.

Taibo makes a point at the beginning of the book to explain that the historical setting includes the rise of Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas's presidential campaign, though subsequently there were only scattered reference to him. That is unfortunate, because he has such a keen sense of politics.

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Sunday, August 01, 2010

Borzutzky and Weeks, The Bachelet Government

is now out.  It is priced for libraries, but keep it in mind as a birthday or holiday present.  Nothing says "I love you" like an analysis of Chilean politics.

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Saturday, July 31, 2010

A shootout with no winners

Just two days ago I wrote about how the Arizona law is a sign of everyone's failures.  Roberto Suro, who has been researching and writing about immigration for years, wrote an excellent op-ed for the Washington Post, beginning with the following:

Arizona's immigration law was never going to solve the problem of illegal immigration. That is not its purpose. Instead it is an invitation to a shootout in which there will be no winners. It is more of a provocation than an attempt to enact policy, and as a protest against Washington's failure to fix a broken immigration system, it resonates.

It's a very well-written piece.  An immigration system that functions properly must balance a wide variety of interest, but as he argues it must also consider what is good for the country as a whole:

Immigration policy needs to be about a lot of things, including national identity and security, but right now it needs to be about getting the economy's pulse up and improving our global economic competitiveness. These challenges are macro. The Arizona law offers micro solutions. It argues that immigration can be a law enforcement matter and pushes the decision-making down to the state and local level. That's a false hope regardless of where you stand on the issue, but it's a false hope that has struck a chord with many Americans.

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Friday, July 30, 2010

Plan Colombia and Mexico

Gustavo Flores-Macías has an op-ed in the New York Times discussing the lessons Mexico can take from Colombia with regard to the drug war.

The problem is that the two countries have ignored a fundamental lesson from the Colombian experience: foreign aid, security cooperation and judicial reform were necessary but not sufficient conditions for reducing violence. Plan Colombia succeeded because, at the same time that it stepped up its antidrug efforts, Colombia aggressively reformed its tax system and greatly improved government accountability. Unless Mexico can do the same, antidrug efforts there will fail.

Two thoughts came to mind.  First, it is nice to see reiteration of the fact that a militarized solution just won't work on its own.  Tax collection is indeed a critical but not very sexy aspect of governance.

Second, I don't believe I have seen anyone write "Plan Colombia succeeded."  It has always been largely drug-oriented, and as such simply cannot be considered successful.  As the World Drug Report shows us, coca cultivation in 2008 was roughly the same as in 1998.  There are ups and downs in cultivation, but even the downs remain quite high.  In 2005, a Congressional Research Report concluded the following:


While there has been measurable progress in Colombia’s internal security, as indicated by decreases in violence, and in the eradication of drug crops, no effect has been seen with regard to price, purity, and availability of cocaine and heroin in the United States. Military operations against illegally armed groups have intensified, but the main leftist guerrilla group seems no closer to agreeing to a cease-fire. The demobilization of rightist paramilitary fighters is proceeding, but without a legal framework governing the process. Critics of U.S. policy argue that respect for human rights by the Colombian security forces is still a problem, and that counternarcotics programs have negative consequences for the civilian population, and for the promotion of democracy in general.


Those issues have not changed much in the past five years, and the eradication only works if you compare to the very worst years.  There are many studies examining Plan Colombia, which argue convincingly against breezy assertions of success.  At the very least, not every success in Colombia should automatically be attributed to Plan Colombia, and not everything claimed as a success--like coca cultivation--really is one.  Finally, there are all sorts of consequences, like false positives, that must also be taken into account.

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Piñera's numbers

The new poll from the Centro de Estudios Públicos shows that Sebastián Piñera's numbers are stagnant:

Approval: 45%
Disapproval: 29%
Neither Approve nor Disapprove: 19%
Don't Know/Didn't Answer: 7%

In general, these numbers are lower than from Adimark and CERC, but even they have him fairly constant, hovering around 50%.

Chileans also have little confidence in how he is handling the economy, with 39% approving and 32% disapproving.  It is notable that Michelle Bachelet recovered in large part because of how she dealt with the financial crisis.  The right constantly argued that the Concertación hampered economic growth, but these numbers suggest that Chileans don't agree.

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Thursday, July 29, 2010

More on enforcement first

I've been writing about the fact that it is likely impossible for the administration to "prove" it is being tough enough on enforcing immigration laws as a way to garner votes for immigration reform.  However, an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal by two high-level officials (Alan Bersin and John Morton) shows they're still trying the "enforcement first, reform after" strategy.

In all, more is being done—and more results are being achieved—to secure the border and enforce the law than ever before. This is important work that we will continue—throughout the nation and in Arizona—as we remain committed to actively working with members of Congress from both parties to make necessary reforms to our immigration laws.

I just don't think this will work.

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The policy of failure

Not too surprisingly, parts of Arizona's SB 1070 were blocked by a judge as the law takes effect today.  But even if you oppose the law, this should give you little joy.

Everyone seems ready for the issue to go upward and onward to the Supreme Court which, as a lengthy NYT article notes, has been moving rightward.  What "rightward" means in the immigration context is unclear given schisms within the right, and the issue hinges largely on the interpretation of immigration's place in both domestic and foreign policy.

Regardless, immigration policy should not be set by the Supreme Court.  The judicial system is dealing with it only because Congress refuses to do so.  This should be seen by everyone as a total failure.  The federal government needs to make immigration policy in a way that renders state activism largely unnecessary--if a working system is in place, then the states should not need to add much of their own.

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Wednesday, July 28, 2010

Enforcement first, nothing after

Michele Waslin at Immigration Impact takes a look at how by many measures the Obama administration has increased enforcement of immigration laws, in some cases much more so than the Bush administration, yet restrictionists argue he is doing less.

I wrote along similar lines a few months ago.  The rhetoric from opponents of immigration reform is that enforcement must occur first.  Since total enforcement is impossible, the second step will never come--the goal posts will simply keep moving.  So if administration officials are hoping the increased enforcement will bring in some votes, they are likely mistaken.  Instead, the administration may well lose votes from those who oppose that increase.

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Tuesday, July 27, 2010

More Venezuela and Colombia

Recently I suggested that Alvaro Uribe wanted to allow Juan Manuel Santos to enter office as the conciliator with Venezuela from a position of strength.  The Venezuelan response may mean that strategy is working quite well.


Venezuela's U.N. Ambassador Jorge Valero asked U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon at a meeting Monday afternoon to distribute a letter to the other U.N. member states which expresses hope that President-elect Juan Manuel Santos does not follow "the warmongering plans" of the U.S. government and Colombia's outgoing President Alvaro Uribe.
It also expresses hope that Santos, who takes office on Aug. 7, "gives clear and unambiguous signals that it has the political will to resume the path of dialogue, taking into consideration that the current government of Colombia has severed all diplomatic bridges with Venezuela."

So Uribe makes the accusations, which are now very public and therefore Venezuela cannot just ignore them.  Santos becomes president, says "I am not Uribe, let's discuss this FARC issue calmly" and Hugo Chávez must either accept the offer or look bad refusing.

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