Reagan and Panama

As the Ronald Reagan 100th birthday commemorations really get going, the Charlotte Observer notes the importance of North Carolina to his presidential aspirations, and reminds us how Latin America was the main connection.  What is perhaps most remarkable to remember is that Reagan successfully generated outrage at something that was irrelevant.

He had failed in his early primary challenges against President Gerald Ford. But when he got to North Carolina, his campaign was taken over by Republican Sen. Jesse Helms and his sidekick, Raleigh attorney Tom Ellis. They made the Panama Canal the signature issue, as Reagan pulled off a historic upset, breathing new life into his presidential effort.

"We bought it, we paid for it, it's ours and we're going to keep it," Reagan said of the canal.

The transfer of the Panama Canal was ultimately smooth, untraumatic, and perfectly compatible with U.S. national security to boot.  Even Henry Kissinger supported it, yet Reagan and Helms managed to get people riled up all the same.  Happy 100th!

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Latin America-Arab Summit blues

Last month I mentioned the Latin America-Arab Summit, which is coming right up.  At that point, the big issue was the string of governments recognizing the Palestinian state.  What a difference a month makes.  Now everyone is focused on Egypt, and as result the summit may be postponed.  It does not take too much reading between the lines to figure out why.  From Peruvian President Alan García:

"We understand that there is a severe problem of instability in the zone and some (leaders) are wary of leaving the area," Garcia said.

Put another way, authoritarian Middle Eastern leaders do not want to leave their countries and then suddenly find themselves ousted and not allowed back (or allowed back under arrest).

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Homecoming 5K

This morning was time once again for the UNC Charlotte Homecoming 5K, which circles around campus and is my favorite race of the year.  Since we will have a football program beginning in 2013, I am guessing the university will move Homecoming (and thus this race as well) to the fall.  That will be much nicer, because although I enjoy the run (despite pushing my constantly growing daughters in the jogger stroller) it is less pleasant when 38 degrees and rainy.

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China message

From the Financial Times blog: these days the U.S. government has to try and convince people its economic influence is still greater than China's.  And, apparently, we make that argument essentially by saying that with Wal-Mart we can be just as cheap and anti-labor as China.

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Egypt and Latin America

Silvia Viña at Global Voices Online links to a number of blog posts, including mine, that compare the situation in Egypt with Latin America.  Some, like Boz, ask whether a similar situation could occur in Latin America now.  I see that as unlikely in large part because it already happened.  The past riots in Caracas and the protests in Bolivia and Ecuador, among others, uprooted deeply entrenched and corrupt regimes and installed very different ones that currently enjoy more popular support.  Later in Venezuela, the opposition tried to launch such a movement itself, failed, and then gave up the mass protest strategy.  I think the main current comparison to be made is with Cuba, where like in Egypt you have a long-standing personalistic dictatorship.  However, Cuba is even more repressive than Egypt, so the massive movement of people simply wouldn't be allowed, and it is hard to imagine security forces simply standing around.

So at least in my opinion the historical analogies--while imperfect--are best equipped to shed some light on the different possible directions Egypt might go.  If there is a contagion effect of some sort, I am not sure where we would likely see it.

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Piñera and Bachelet

Sebastián Piñera's approval rating dropped to 41% in January 2011.  Curiously, right about this same time in her presidency Michelle Bachelet started facing a similar crisis of confidence.  In January 2007 she fell to 47%, and then fell into a slide that brought down to 35% in September.  Of course, we need to remember that she ended her presidency at 83%.

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Hegemony and omnipotence

Media commentary on Egypt is echoing past arguments about Somoza's Nicaragua, Batista's Cuba, and the Shah's Iran (among others).  All of them confuse U.S. hegemony with omnipotence, and fail to comprehend the consequences of their policy prescriptions.  I thought of this as I happened to see Cal Thomas' opinion piece as I read today's Charlotte Observer.

The argument, made most prominently in the past by Jeane Kirkpatrick (which is why I have students in my U.S.-Latin American Relations class read her), goes along the following lines:

First, procedural democracy (or Dahl's basic idea of polyarchy) is not possible in these countries.

Second, the United States has the power to keep these authoritarian governments in power.

Third, it is necessary to keep those pro-U.S. authoritarian governments in power, because if they fall, an anti-U.S. totalitarian dictatorship will take its place.

Fourth, as a result the United States should support the authoritarian government's efforts to repress dissent as much as possible.

Fifth, if the U.S. does so, then the status quo will be maintained and the protests will disappear.

This is a vision where the U.S. controls all events, and mass protests are simple manipulations that do not reflect true popular opinion.  As such, they can be crushed without consequence, and neither U.S. national security nor the positive image of the U.S. will suffer.

It is, in short, a mirage.

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More on 287(g)

The Migration Policy Institute just published an extensive study on the 287(g) program.  It has a number of findings, but a key one is that contrary to the government's stated aims, the program does not target criminal offenders, and tends to be oriented toward tossing people in jail.  Obviously, a major concern about 287(g) is that it would give law enforcement carte blanche to stop anyone anywhere for any reason based on a presumption of being in the United States illegally, thus fostering an environment of fear and mistrust of law enforcement.

Overall, the conclusion is that the program can be implemented in a way that targets criminal offenders and builds  bridges to the Latino community.  At present, however, there is too little attention being paid a) to the different ways 287(g) is implemented; and b) the specific pros and cons of all those different ways.

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Private in Cuba

Check out the list of 178 activities that Cubans can now do privately for profit.  Bill collector seems perhaps the most un-socialist.  Meanwhile, people who take care of public places--both bathroom attendants and park caretakers--can now make a profit doing so.

And if you want a sense of the economic situation in Cuba, look at the list of jobs that repair something, including disposable lighters.  Yes, even those need repair in Castro's Cuba.

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Palestinians in Latin America

Here is a new and bizarre twist to the Palestinian-Latin America connection:

The United States proposed giving Palestinian refugees land in South America as a radical solution to a problem that has haunted Middle East peace talks for decades.

Condoleezza Rice, the Bush administration's secretary of state, wanted to settle displaced Palestinians in Argentina and Chile as an alternative to letting them return to former homes in Israel and the occupied territories. Rice made the proposal in a June 2008 meeting with US, Israeli and Palestinian negotiators in Berlin, according to minutes of the encounter seen by the Guardian.

...

The proposal seems based on the fact that Chile has a large Palestinian community dating back a century and, like Argentina, has large tracts of sparsely populated land.

Did anyone ask whether Palestinians would prefer to be shipped out, or whether a very large number of non-Spanish speaking Muslims would automatically be welcomed?  I suppose it is worth at least discussing all sorts of potential solutions, but this one seems particularly outlandish.

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Nicaragua and Egypt

It is impossible not to make analogies between the current situation in Egypt and the implosion of dictatorships in Latin America.  Anastasio Somoza in particular comes to mind.  Broadly speaking, the U.S. had supported a dictatorship for decades because it was a strategic ally, then internal opposition began to boil, hoping to copy the toppling of another repressive regime in the region.

There are, however, also very important differences.  One prominent difference is the attitude of the U.S. government.  In that regard, Somoza would agree 100% with Joe Biden:

"The Admiral came back to the proposal, which was simply that my family and I had to leave the country.  I was becoming wearisome of this contumacious proposal and said: "Look, Admiral, you people may think this government is a dictatorship, but your proposal has been handed down through every channel of government, as well as the leaders of the party, and not one person has accepted the proposal."  Then I told him that we didn't even have a small ripple of support for the proposal.  I told him that in my meetings with all of the leaders in the government, the party, and the Army, there was unanimous opposition to the proposal."

--Anastasio Somoza, Nicaragua Betrayed p. 221

At least for now, the U.S. position is quite different:

Vice President Joe Biden offered his take on the protests in Egypt, saying the current protests should not cause Egyptian Prsident Hosni Mubarak to resign.

Speaking in response to a question from Newshour‘s Jim Lehrer, Mr. Biden stopped short of calling for Mr. Mubarak to resign amidst the protests.

“I think the time has come for President Mubarak to begin to move in the direction that – to be more responsive to some… of the needs of the people out there,” Mr. Biden said.

Mr.  Biden  added that he does not consider the Egyptian president a “dictator.”

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Obama and El Salvador

If there is one thing all media outlets can agree on, it is that they have no idea why President Obama is going to El Salvador.

--The Wall Street Journal just says he's going to South America

--Ditto for Bloomberg, though at least they have a sentence or two on El Salvador

--UPI focuses on the unvisited countries that are ticked off, figuring they are more important

--At least Fox News Latino (yes, such a thing exists) mentions the importance of migrants

--Voice of America disagrees, saying it is about crime

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Copper Law

The infamous Chilean Copper Law has been reformed, though not removed.  To provide more transparency, its management is moving from the Superior Council of National Defense to the Finance Ministry.  This type of reform has been in the works for a while, but accelerated due to a recent controversy over transparency that led to the resignation of Defense Minister Jaime Ravinet and his replacement by Andrés Allamand, an old hand in Renovación Nacional.

This is a win for President Piñera and the center-right, as they show themselves committed to an issue the Concertación had struggled in vain to reform, and can point to it as indicating more transparency.  However, I blogged almost exactly a year ago about how Piñera has indicated he wants to get rid of the Copper Law entirely, but obviously that did not happen.

A real victory for civilian supremacy over the armed forces, however, would be to remove the law entirely.  It may take a Nixon-China moment, where only a president of the right could get it done.  For fiscal conservatives, it does not make sense to throw sums of money quite that large at the military.  I'm not sure, though, whether Piñera's willingness to take a smaller step right now indicates this is off the table again for a while.

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Immigration and the SOTU

I don't tend to get too worked up about State of the Union addresses, the content of which I tend to forget a day or two later.  However, here is the immigration mention, which focuses largely on the DREAM Act though oddly without mentioning it:

One last point about education. Today, there are hundreds of thousands of students excelling in our schools who are not American citizens. Some are the children of undocumented workers, who had nothing to do with the actions of their parents. They grew up as Americans and pledge allegiance to our flag, and yet they live every day with the threat of deportation. Others come here from abroad to study in our colleges and universities. But as soon as they obtain advanced degrees, we send them back home to compete against us. It makes no sense.

Now, I strongly believe that we should take on, once and for all, the issue of illegal immigration. And I am prepared to work with Republicans and Democrats to protect our borders, enforce our laws and address the millions of undocumented workers who are now living in the shadows. (Applause.) I know that debate will be difficult. I know it will take time. But tonight, let's agree to make that effort. And let's stop expelling talented, responsible young people who could be staffing our research labs or starting a new business, who could be further enriching this nation. (Applause.)

It is the sort of mention that shows people he is paying attention, but will have no impact on actually getting anything passed.  When I first blogged about a SOTU five years ago, and every year since, either Bush or Obama has mentioned immigration in some way without getting anything done.

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Harry Reid and Latin America

Americas Quarterly sent me a forthcoming interview with Harry Reid that will appear in their magazine, allowing me to post it here (I am happy to plug them as they do good work, and I would also recommend their blog, which you can access on their site).  They sent it to me as a PDF, which unfortunately I have been unable to successfully upload in any way to the blog.  So I will quote from it and encourage you to check it out when it is published in a few days.

I feel it is a revealing interview in the sense that it shows both political impotence and lack of policy direction.

My goal is still to pass comprehensive immigration reform that secures our borders, punishes employers who exploit immigrant labor and undercut American wages, and requires those living in the shadows to register with the government, pay fines, pay taxes, learn English, and then go to the back of the line. My hope is that the Republicans will work with us on a comprehensive approach that addresses the many complex components necessary to fix our broken system.

Keep hoping.  So what will our U.S. policy priorities be for Latin America?  Well, he can't name any.

I have traveled extensively in the region. My first two foreign trips as Majority Leader were to Latin America because I believed we needed to refocus on our neighborhood. It is precisely because we share strong cultural and economic ties with the region that Latin America should be a natural priority for us.

So taking a few trips is the same as establishing priorities.  Well, what about those people who want an FTA with Panama and/or Colombia?  Well, not going to happen.

It is my understanding the Obama administration is working with the leadership of Colombia and Panama to address different areas of concern for members of Congress. These discussions, and the outcomes they will lead to, are key to finding a way forward with those agreements. As we have seen before, sending an agreement up before building support in Congress is counterproductive. At the end of the day, what we want are agreements that are fair to American workers, farmers and businesses and that deal fairly with our friends and allies.

I have often argued that it is better to do nothing than "do something" just for the sake of it, which often creates blowback.  But this suggests an almost complete lack of even thinking about what could be done.

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Juxtaposition: NC and immigration

Interest in denying government services and jobs to illegal immigrants percolates in the legislature. Such a measure has a chance to pass this session. A proposal that has had bipartisan support requires contractors on government projects to use a federal online program that confirms employment eligibility (today's Charlotte Observer).

AND

Moving forward, we will look for more ways to reduce the regulatory burden on small businesses (incoming N.C. House Speaker Thom Tillis in today's Charlotte Observer)

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Colombian flowers

Really interesting, and I think even-handed, article in The Smithsonian about the flower industry in Colombia, which is huge (and, if the article is accurate, largely initiated in the late 1960s by an American horticulture grad student).  Basically, conditions are not great but have been improving a lot.  The practical lesson is that you should look for flowers that are certified, which means they were grown with labor protections and in an environmentally sustainable manner.

The global marketplace will always demand cheaper flowers, and Colombian farms must compete with growers in other nations, including neighboring Ecuador and rising flower power Kenya. Increasingly, though, there’s another factor flower growers must consider: independent flower certification programs, including Fair Trade flowers, VeriFlora and the Rainforest Alliance, which are working to certify farms in Colombia.

Such programs have been key to Colombia’s business in Europe, where customers pay close attention to the source of their flowers. The U.S. trade in certified flowers is tiny by comparison—my Mother’s Day bouquet bore no certification notice—but growing. “Sustainability is an attribute that consumers are seeking,” says Linda Brown, creator of the certification standards for VeriFlora, which is based in Emeryville, California. “When you are looking 10 to 20 years out, sustainability will become the way that people do business.”

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Quote of the day: Haiti

Barr "will be representing" Duvalier "in bringing his message of hope to the world," the former Republican congressman's website says.

This can't be serious, yet it is.  Here is his website if you can stomach it.

h/t Kevin Grier aka Angus

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U.S. and Mexico

Hillary Clinton will be traveling to Mexico.  From the State Department's press release:

Secretary of State Clinton and Secretary Espinosa will meet in Guanajuato to discuss key issues that the United States and Mexico face individually and as partners, including joint cooperation to combat organized crime, strengthening the competitiveness of our two economies, modernizing the border between our countries and advancing the global climate change agenda after the Cancun Summit.

Conspicuous by its absence is mention of joint cooperation to reduce drug demand.  I wouldn't mind tossing in joint cooperation to understand what immigration solutions work and which don't.  Unfortunately, all reporters were interested in was, in essence, whether we could copy Plan Colombia in Mexico.

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Ecuador ambassador

I had the great privilege to meet and hear a talk on campus by the Ambassador of Ecuador to the U.S., Luis Gallegos, who has a very distinguished career.  I was really impressed, because here is an individual who has been in his position since even before Rafael Correa's term (if the dates I am seeing are correct) and yet he is very direct and even blunt to a refreshing degree.  "Blunt" and "diplomat" are normally mutually exclusive if someone wants to be in the position for any length of time.  Yet there is no bluster--he is very articulate and reasoned from long years of working on human rights, particularly the Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities.  The Allegro Foundation, which is focused on disabled children, funded the visit, which also included the Ambassador from Monaco.

In general, I felt his view was very similar to that of Correa (for example, see this post from last year about really interesting Correa comments), namely that there is an admiration for the U.S. (that came out in many different comments) but deep frustration with U.S. policy.  He made a careful but to my mind clear statement that Ecuador should not be lumped in with its neighbors politically.  Correa is neither Chávez nor Morales.

A colleague and I were able to have a quick chat with him prior to his talk, where he discussed the demand side of drugs, which for him is the central bilateral problem.  Obviously, U.S. policy toward Colombia spills over in a massive way into Ecuador, which is spending an enormous amount of money to deal with both guerrillas and migrants.

But in his talk, he began by discussing human rights, since he worked in the UN to create the declaration about the rights of the disabled.  To paraphrase him, "I was idealistic, and felt no one could opposed the rights of the disabled.  Then I ran into the U.S. delegation" (which, unlike many other countries, took a few years to ratify).  He then talked about security (i.e. the effects of drug trafficking) and the effects of the Colombian displaced in Ecuador.

And, lastly, he made the point that he could not think of any other country than the U.S. where an ambassador was told he needed to hire lawyers and sign on with a lobbying firm to get his government's views made to legislators.

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