Wednesday, November 09, 2016

Initial Thoughts on Trump and Latin America

The effects of Donald Trump's victory depend a lot upon how committed he actually is to following his campaign promises. U.S.-Latin American relations were part of some of his most repeated promises, which suggests they're likely to become policy initiatives. It also depends on Congress, where at this point I figure anti-Trump Republicans will be afraid to go against him.

1. The Mexican peso is getting hit, and its economy will be hit if Trump goes after NAFTA or tries to build more wall, which he has promised.

2. Cities on the U.S.-Mexico border will be damaged economically if Trump follows through with campaign promises limiting trade.

3. We will see some serious hardliners appointed, who will drive Trump's policy toward Latin America. Trump has no interest in Latin America beyond making fun of Mexico.

4. Cuba policy will be rolled back to some degree, perhaps entirely, as promised. This depends on how much he responds to counter-pressure from business.

5. Attacks on Latinos, especially immigrants, will likely increase. Trump's victory has made racism more acceptable to so many Americans.

6. Venezuela policy will veer off the tracks. I can see Nicolás Maduro hunkering down and looking for regional support to hang on.

7. The "Slumbering Giant" of the Latino vote needs to be rethought. I said as much for North Carolina.

8. Immigration reform is dead and buried.

In short, U.S. policy toward Latin America will change, and it is unlikely that change will be positive.


9. Adam Isacson's post led me to realize that I had forgotten Colombia. The RNC platform explicitly opposed the peace talks. And Alvaro Uribe was really excited by Trump's victory.


Alfredo 9:03 AM  

"We came, we saw, he died"......let us hope that foreign policy philosophy is dead and buried....woke up this morning and the world has changed.......jeje

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