Friday, January 03, 2020

Iran Retaliation in Latin America?

In the aftermath of Trump assassinating Qassem Soleimani, people are already speculating about potential repercussions in Latin America. Or, as one Middle Eastern official put it:

It could be targets in Africa, it could be in Latin America, it could be in the Gulf, it could be anything,” the official said. “I don’t think they’re going to take the assassination of one of their key guys and just turn the other cheek.”
My question is what form this would take that would serve as retaliation. Iran's modus operandi in Latin America has been only indirectly anti-U.S. Most prominently, it has involved terrorist attacks in Argentina, money laundering, and overall a mild propaganda win in places like Venezuela where it can claim presence in the U.S. backyard.

Even those who have argued for years that Iran posed a significant threat in the region, such as Douglas Farah, write things like:
Of the three external actors, Iran’s revolutionary government has the smallest footprint in Latin America of the three countries and the most opaque agenda. Unlike Russia and China, Iran offers neither economic nor military support, but instead focuses on a narrower set of state and non-state actors through limited political outreach and illicit activities meant to further Iran’s national interest and nuclear program. That influence diminished with the death of former Venezuelan president Hugo Chávez and the end of the presidency of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in Iran, but may increase again contingent upon current developments.
So Iran's presence in Latin America exists, but is minimal, so what would it or could it even target? Attacking another Latin America country would not really serve as retaliation against the United States, and would push countries in the region to condemn it. So that doesn't seem very desirable.

Or it could directly attack U.S. citizens in Latin America. Certainly possible, but also risky, and again it entails regional condemnation. Or maybe cyberattacks that are harder to trace, but which affect U.S. trade in Latin America or other activities and serve as a reminder of Iran's reach.

It could just be that be I lack imagination, but for many years I and many others have argued that Iran's threat to Latin America (and to the U.S. through Latin America) has been grossly exaggerated, and therefore we should be alert but not alarmed. I don't see any reason right now to change that view.

Update: Chris Sabatini makes a similar argument in a Miami Herald op-ed.

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