Venezuelan Public Opinion in the Aftermath

Yesterday I watched an Atlantic Council panel on public opinion in Venezuela, which I definitely recommend. You can watch it here. Mark Feierstein's discussion of his firm's poll results (which were taken in January) was particularly interesting (as was the occasional polite disagreement from Venezuelan panelists).

I won't rehash it, but there is one point that didn't get much attention that I think is definitely worth keeping in mind. It's about what has sometimes been called the "ni-nis," meaning people who are neither with the government nor the opposition. They are a plurality in Venezuela. I screenshotted this from the presentation:

Independent: 42%

Opposition: 37%

Chavista: 17%

I think it's reasonable to assume that independents want free and fair elections, and may well have voted for González/Machado, but aren't tied to MCM ideologically. There was a discussion about when she should come back to Venezuela and I will be interested to see what happens when she shifts from what she's against (the dictatorship) and what she's for. I would guess the latter will be focused largely on the economy, which according to the poll is the highest priority for Venezuelans. But there is a lot of other stuff to deal with as well.

Anyway, just a friendly reminder that Venezuela is not a binary government/opposition. And a friendly reminder that MCM does not perceive Venezuela as safe to return to, though it is also entirely possible she wants to return and test repression but the Trump administration is convincing her to wait.