This op-ed in the Washington Post echoes conventional wisdom about Latino voters and immigration reform:
But if there is no serious progress on the issue, many disillusioned Latinos will stay home in November. Others will decide that because Democrats can't deliver on immigration reform, they might as well vote Republican on the values issues.
I have seen this (or a variation on it) repeated many times, but always without evidence. Is it true? It might be, but no one ever examines its assumptions, which are the following:
First, Latinos form a voting bloc regardless of their background.
Second, Latinos vote primarily in terms of immigration policy.
Third, Latinos vote secondarily in terms of social policy.
Fourth, if Democrats do not address immigration policy, then Latinos will not vote for them because they are uninterested in the other issues Democrats champion.
It is obviously not likely that all of these assumptions hold. So, again, will (at least some, but how many?) Latino voters be upset enough at the failure of immigration reform that they stay home? Perhaps, but we need better arguments. I complained about this a long time ago, but apparently my message is not reaching everyone.