Tuesday, April 09, 2013

Debating ALBA

I have a short piece in Americas Quarterly on whether ALBA will outlive Hugo Chávez. I debate (indirectly, since we were unaware of each other) with Pablo Solón, former Bolivian Ambassador to the UN. His bottom line: there is a lot of solidarity and it will keep going. Mine: if he wins, Nicolás Maduro will focus more on keeping his domestic coalition in place. At whatever time the opposition wins, it is kaput.

This was an interesting exercise for me, since I was asked to make a one-sided argument. That's not typical for social scientists, who see the political world as complex and sloppy and therefore qualify everything. In that sense it was fun.  It also means it'll be much easier to see whether I was completely wrong!


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