The Venezuelan Opposition is the Minority

On Twitter, Hugo Pérez Hernáiz linked to this incisive blog post with a Sociology professor in Venezuela. She had participated in the protests and come to a conclusion that is so simple yet gets much less attention than it should.

The bottom line is that the opposition is a minority and without a different strategy likely will remain so. Because of years of mismanagement, a majority of Venezuelans have to be convinced that anyone but the left deserves to rule them. The opposition has done precious little to bother doing so. Probably many don't feel they need to do so.

#LaSalida propone estos caminos porque parte del supuesto erróneo de que la oposición es mayoría. Convertirnos en mayoría tiene que ser, por el contrario, la principal meta política de quienes adversan el autoritarismo creciente de nuestro sistema político. La única forma de llegar a la gente es acompañando su organización, sus luchas y protestas por los problemas inmensos que enfrentan hoy. Es un trabajo arduo porque supone romper la barrera que hemos construido con años de extrema polarización. Y como todas aquellas metas que son difíciles de lograr, se necesita constancia y los resultados no se alcanzan de la noche a la mañana. Y este sería mi llamado a los jóvenes de hoy: no necesitamos que expongan sus vidas, necesitamos su creatividad, su ímpetu para hacer llegar su mensaje por un futuro mejor a ese sector del país que todavía se siente representado por el gobierno.

This isn't about marching, or making noise, or complaining, or even ideology for that matter. It's about constructing clear platforms and plans to demonstrate why current supporters of Maduro should ever vote for someone else. You can't just be the not-Maduro candidate. You can't just talk about oppression, because many of the people you want to convince don't feel oppressed, or at least feel no more oppressed than they ever did.

Otherwise you can go ahead and try to win a recall, and even if somehow you accomplish that, then you will lose the following presidential election. And you will keep losing elections, over and over and over.