Nicolás Maduro is Afraid of Juan Guaidó

Nicolás Maduro is spending a lot of time with the military, with plenty of photo ops. A few days ago I wrote about how Maduro is treating Juan Guaidó with kid gloves, which is still true.

He's nervous that if gives an order to take Guaidó, it won't be carried out and he can't be sure what direction the guns will point, especially after a recent revolt.

This is even more evident now. Maduro went to give a speech to the armed forces, exhorting/begging them to stay loyal.

"Esta oportunidad que nos está dando la vida por la agresión imperialista del gobierno de Donald Trump debemos tomarla como una oportunidad para despertar una conciencia superior, un liderazgo militar al que tenemos más articulado, desde el oficial de mayor rango y antigüedad hasta el soldado más nuevo en un liderazgo que mueva la fuerza armada en la defensa de la patria, de la integridad territorial, de la soberanía, de la democracia verdadera, de la Constitución, de las instituciones, de su comandante en Jefe constitucional, un sistema de liderazgo moral, eficiente, efectivo, eficaz, basado en el ejemplo de la palabra, del hacer. Vamos a renovarnos con mucha fuerza", insistió. 

El jefe de Estado subrayó que la nación está enfrentando conspiraciones y derrotándolas todos los días y denunció que "un grupo de desertores militares se han convertido en mercenarios de la oligarquía colombiana y conspiran desde Colombia para dividir la Fuerza Armada Nacional Bolivariana".

Notice who is and who is not mentioned. All enemies are foreign. John Bolton did his blustery thing to warn Maduro about touching Guaidó, but he does not need reminding. He is more afraid of Venezuelans than he is of Bolton. He does not even want to name Guaidó as a threat to the country.

The Venezuelan government did block Guaidó from leaving the country, claiming he is under investigation. But really the government is terrified he will actually get access to Venezuelan accounts in the United States. 

Maduro's primary goal right now is to make this drag out. Every day he remains in power is a day people get tired of protesting and the international reaction looks less decisive. Arresting Guaidó will generate tremendous backlash that Maduro can't afford. If he gets so desperate that he does so, it means he is desperate indeed and the end game is probably in sight.