Venezuela's January 23

This post is my effort to sort out the rapidly unfolding events in Venezuela today, especially for my own future reference.

This is a momentous day in Venezuela.  Juan Guaidó went before the crowd and proclaimed himself to be President of Venezuela. Not long after. Donald Trump soon recognized him as such. Earlier, Guaidó called on the Venezuelan military to stand with him. Just a remarkable shift from someone who was not well known a short time ago.

Following the U.S. example, Canada recognized Guaidó. Not surprisingly, Luis Almagro of the Organization of American States came next, though clearly he can't speak on behalf of the entire organization, which includes Maduro allies. The Lima Group came next, with Brazil, Chile, and Colombia making their own announcements. As with the OAS, this is not a unified group and the Mexican government said it was not recognizing him "for the time being." It joined with Uruguay to call for more negotiation. Argentina, Guatemala, Paraguay, and Peru then did so. Guyana and Santa Lucia have not declared.

All that happened within only a few hours. Just after 4:00 pm Maduro announced he was breaking all relations with the United States and personnel had 72 hours to leave the country. Guaidó then issued a statement asking all embassies to ignore Maduro. Mike Pompeo said he did not recognize Maduro as president so wouldn't listen. He also threatened to take action if Maduro took any measures inconsistent with diplomatic protection. Maduro also wanted the justice system to "act" against those trying to oust him. Of the time of this writing, nothing had happened to Guaidó.

As he did so, reports of other countries recognizing Guaidó continued, such as Ecuador and Costa Rica. Predictably, Evo Morales expressed support. Honduras and Panama, both Lima Group members, remained mum, but finally signed on later in the day. Sadly, the Trump administration started using language learned in action movies, like they'll "have their days counted" (did they mean numbered??).

Maduro did retain the support of Russia. Meanwhile, Guaidó said he wanted to reach out both to Russia and China, which of course are the key sources of Maduro's loans. The two countries are certainly pragmatic, but have strong incentives to stay in Maduro's court--they have nothing to lose by doing so. Other than that, he has Turkey. The European Union called for elections without recognizing Guaidó.

By evening 13 people were reported dead and pots banged in Caracas. There were no signs of military splintering or regime cracking and they still controlled the oil. As long as those hold, you can call whoever you want to be president. The countries that recognized Guaidó are out there hanging if they keep insisting that someone with no power is in charge.

There is still a lot of night left.