Jair Bolsonaro's Inaction With Venezuela

What a difference a decade makes. When Honduran President Mel Zelaya was overthrown in 2009, Brazil under Lula took the Latin American lead. As I wrote at the time, the general Latin American response was weak and disappointing. Lula, however, did the most by far, including protecting Zelaya in the Brazilian embassy in Tegucigalpa, where they were all subjected to psychological warfare. Lula gave a speech at the UN General Assembly calling for Zelaya's reinstatement. Of course, none of this ended up changing the outcome, but at least he was trying. The Brazilian government prided itself on a more regional and even more global outlook.

Now under Jair Bolsonaro, the opposite is true. He has done so little that we even have Marco Rubio writing that the U.S. should force the Lima Group to give Brazil a larger role. I guess Rubio sees himself like a helicopter parent, trying to interfere with things that in fact shouldn't have anything to do with him. Bolsonaro likes to talk tough, with his equivalent of "all options on the table," but thus far he hasn't done anything besides recognize Juan Guaidó, which is not particularly novel. He clearly does not want to take a lead and prefers to defer to the United States. In fact, he's nervous, and recently said he's concerned about a violent transition (which is why he says he opposed armed intervention). For good reason.

But allowing John Bolton to take the lead on Venezuela is dangerous for Brazil because Bolton has shown us before that violence and instability are all okey dokey with him. Dumb action is far, far, worse than no action. It would be in Brazil's interest for Bolsonaro to take more of an anti-military lead.

I doubt he will. First of all, he doesn't want to contradict his fascistic friend. Further, like Trump he seems both clueless on and uninterested in foreign policy. He is not adept at forming diplomatic alliances. He has his own problems at home. But the Venezuelan stakes for Brazil are significantly higher than for the United States, so inaction could make his life more difficult.