Latin America's failure in Honduras

As I've noted before, the Obama administration is being criticized from all sides for its reaction to the Honduran coup. News that the administration will neither insist on Zelaya's return nor use economic sanctions is troubling, to say the least.

However, this also highlights the fact that not nearly enough attention has been paid to the anemic Latin American reaction, which has been characterized by an almost total refusal to go beyond rhetoric. Instead, Latin America talks, sits, and waits for the U.S. to solve the crisis.

The Arias talks came about precisely because of Latin American failure.

The only way to compel the coup government to accept Zelaya's return is to use leverage. Some of this will come from within due to strikes and protests, but the bulk will likely come from international actors who agree to take measures against the government. That includes Latin America.

José Miguel Insulza was very effective in quickly getting hemispheric consensus condemning Zelaya's overthrow, but failed completely in terms of going beyond statements and convincing Latin American governments to use whatever leverage they have. He went to Honduras, demanded action, and was ignored. As a result, before long he became a peripheral figure. If the mission he is organizing now is to succeed, the diplomats involved must demonstrate that Latin American governments are willing to put the heat on Micheletti. Thus far, they have not done so in any consistent (and certainly not collective) manner.

Fellow Central American countries do have some important leverage because of trade, perhaps the most leverage of any other Latin American countries. They halted trade for 48 hours after the coup, but then decided it was too painful for themselves. No one has said a word about a similar measure since.

Venezuela cut off oil supplies, which is a useful measure, and hurts because Honduras was getting it at preferential prices. The problem is that Zelaya himself notes that Honduras gets only 15 percent of its oil from Venezuela. The rest comes from the United States.

Now, Zelaya just visited Mexico, where Felipe Calderón treated him as a head of state, an important symbolic gesture. But Calderón promised only vaguely to help more "intensely." I hope that means something concrete, but thus far Mexico has done nothing.

And where is Brazil? Lula has promised to intensify pressure on the coup government, but I am not aware of anything specific. Zelaya has indicated he will visit Brazil, so we will see whether Lula takes any action.

I am disappointed at seeing so much passivity. Even Hugo Chávez was left saying, "Do something. Obama, do something!"

The big question is whether it is too late for Latin America to play a decisive role. The OAS is not being taken seriously after so many weeks of inaction, and if any international institution wants credibility, it has to go beyond talk. Can Insulza--indeed can anyone--do that?