Wednesday, April 20, 2011

Runoff dynamics in Peru

It is interesting to watch the incentives generated by the presidential runoff system in Peru.  With only 31 percent in the first round, Ollanta Humala needs to woo a lot of voters, and he has clearly decided he needs to go to the center to get them.  To that end, he is backing off previous statements about nationalization, such as in his "Nationalist Proposal."  He put together a team of moderates, and his top advisor keeps saying there will be no state takeovers and an Humala administration would respect existing free trade agreements.   Now he says the pension system will remain in private hands, saying "We want to give confidence to the Peruvian people."

A new poll is expected on April 24, so stay tuned.


Otto 10:48 AM  

In fact we've had post-vote polling already, but it was from the very silly IDICE house that is very biased. So you're right that we should wait until Apr 24th and a decent pollster like IPSOS/Apoyo before making any comment.

Meanwhile, note that the JNE today said Humala can't change his Gov't plan (officially) because it's against the rules of the game. This is an interesting situation because the JNE stance isn't just theoretical.

Anonymous,  10:23 PM  

My calendar is marked for June 5. I can't believe that I haven't been watching this Peruvian election cycle!

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