Friday, September 30, 2016

Does Trump's Violation of the Embargo Matter?

Donald Trump is accused of violating the embargo against Cuba.

Newsweek reports that Mr Trump's company secretly conducted business in Cuba, violating the US trade embargo against the country. 
The company allegedly spent at least $68,000 (£52,300) in Cuba in 1998. 
Mr Trump's spokesman Kellyanne Conway said the money was not paid, and that he was against deals with Cuba.

Here is the original story, so you can see the documents.

There is never any reason to believe Trump, so I would bet this is true. The more interesting question is how/whether it matters. The embargo is an illogical and ridiculous set of laws, but it is still law. Consciously breaking the law is not a good attribute of a president. The average American, however, doesn't care about this, and won't think about it when deciding on a candidate.

But what about Cuban Americans? The traditional conservative who votes for the candidate with the hardest line against Cuba is a shrinking population. But it does still exist. Trump started by being favorable to President Obama's policy, then recently did a 180. What will that hardcore group think about this news, which simply proves that Trump's word is not worth anything?

Well, they're mad. The results are not entirely predictable:

Unlike other Hispanics, Cuban Americans lean heavily for the GOP: They make up about 72 percent of registered Republicans in Miami-Dade County. However, a recent Florida International University poll showed potential political trouble for Trump: Miami-Dade Cubans only narrowly backed him over Clinton. The same poll showed a majority of local Cuban Americans for the first time clearly favor lifting the embargo.

Read more here:

This boils down to the smaller but still important cohort of hardliners. This will be a bitter pill to swallow, so do they sit home in disgust?


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