Tuesday, February 05, 2019

Will Aid Spark Violence in Venezuela?

I am quoted in this Bloomberg article about the Lima Group meeting in Ottawa yesterday. I spoke about the effect of aid, making the point that the chances of confrontation are high if foreign countries try to force aid into Venezuela. I wrote about this a few days ago as well, laying out different scenarios.

The Lima Group official statement says the following:

They reiterate their deep concern about the serious humanitarian situation in Venezuela caused by the Maduro regime. They consider it imperative that access to humanitarian assistance be guaranteed in order to respond to the urgent needs of Venezuelans. They call upon the United Nations and its agencies and the international community to be prepared to provide humanitarian assistance to vulnerable populations in that country, whenever possible, and based on their needs.

Nicolás Maduro's response was this:

 “A Venezuela no se le puede hacer una promesa falsa de una supuesta ayuda humanitaria, a Venezuela hay que convocarla al trabajo, a la producción, al crecimiento de nuestra economía, no somos mendigos de nadie”, dijo Maduro.
Right now, there is an impasse. Justin Trudeau's offer of aid appears only to be going to neighboring countries. However, Juan Guaidó announced that today the first order of business of the National Assembly is to discuss where the aid should go. He wants it inside Venezuela.

Making this discussion public ratchets up the possibility of armed confrontation because all forces will concentrate on those areas. I suppose it's possible to have it all be a fake and then move the goods into the country somewhere else entirely.

Guaidó wants to make the military choose. I take it he believes that when faced with the choice of shooting or feeding, they will choose feeding and the regime will collapse (incidentally, this may have been a Colombian brainchild). This is risky and scary (if indeed it was Colombian, they certainly are familiar with risky and scary).


Alfredo 6:39 AM  

Bringing in aid that they help create with their sanctions......lol

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