U.S. Food Aid as a Foreign Policy Tool in Venezuela

The Administrator of the U.S. Agency for International Development, Mark Green, tweeted out a photo of food aid earmarked for Venezuela. At this moment, aid is aimed at Venezuelans in neighboring countries but Juan Guaidó publicly pushed for distribution within the country as well. He even said specifically where. The goal is 1) to associate Guaidó with hunger relief; and 2) to push the Venezuelan military into a corner. Will you use guns to block your citizens from obtaining food?

This is combustible, so much so that the Red Cross does not like it. Here are possible scenarios, in no particular order.

1. The soldiers obey orders to block the aid. This could turn fatal very quickly, which leads to any number of consequences. It is impossible to know which side would win politically. Some of this depends on whether anyone traveling with the aid (not the aid workers themselves, who will not be) is armed.

2. The soldiers refuse to obey orders to block it. Maduro is left badly weakened and probably does not last much longer.

3. Maduro just allows the aid to come in, noting that the imperialists started the disaster themselves. The result here is determined by what role the police or military play. I assume they have to play some role just to keep basic order.

3a. Maduro allows the aid to come in. Meanwhile, Guaidó and especially U.S. officials tweet lots of pictures making it clear where the aid is and when. People flood there, riots break out, and it is a PR disaster for Guaidó.

3b. All the above holds, except soldiers are brutal and it is a PR disaster for Maduro.