The Humanitarian Aid Plan in Venezuela

According to diputado José Trujillo, here is the plan for the humanitarian aid on February 23.

1. Go to Cúcuta, Colombia; Roraima, Brasil; la isla de Curazao; Puerto Cabello y La Guaira. Note: the government says it is closing borders at Curazao, Aruba and Bonaire.

2. Get a human chain of volunteers who have signed up through a special website.

3. If the Venezuelan military intervenes, inform them they are committing a crime of war and against humanity and therefore they will be subject to "international action."

4. If it gets worse, use Article 187 of the Venezuelan constitution, which gives the National Assembly the right to bring foreign forces. Note: this seems to be a shaky use of the language in that article, which refers to foreign contracts. Add Article 13 and you have a problem:

Artículo 13. El territorio no podrá ser jamás cedido, traspasado, arrendado, ni en forma alguna enajenado, ni aun temporal o parcialmente, a Estados extranjeros u otros sujetos de derecho internacional. 

El espacio geográfico venezolano es una zona de paz. No se podrán establecer en él bases militares extranjeras o instalaciones que tengan de alguna manera propósitos militares, por parte de ninguna potencia o coalición de potencias.

Meanwhile, the Commanding General of the Colombian military visited U.S. Southern Command, where SouthCom commander Craig Faller threatened the Venezuelan military and said the U.S. was still considering invasion. Marco Rubio is saying the Venezuelan military is already rebelling and will let the aid in.

This will likely be a major turning point. There are two dramatic possibilities:

First, the military rebels and sparks a broader coup action.

Second, the military blocks the aid and we soon see a U.S.-led invasion.

But there are also less dramatic possibilities:

Third, on its own the the military lets the aid through and then we go back to stalemate.

Fourth, Maduro grandiloquently calls for the military to let the aid in to preserve peace, thus retaining symbolic control, then we go back to stalemate.