Juan Guaidó and China

Juan Guaidó's messages to China are spot on. He recognizes that China's interest in Venezuela is overwhelmingly economic. So you do three things: you avoid all ideological references, emphasize how Nicolás Maduro has damaged your investments, and promise to honor every deal Maduro made.

“I will be very clear: all agreements that have been signed following the law will be respected,” Guaido said in a written interview. “If previous agreements were signed by adhering to the due process of approval by the National Assembly, they will be accepted and honored.”

And:

 "We want to establish a transparent relationship with China and put an end to the plundering of our resources that has prevailed under Maduro’s government, which has ultimately also affected Chinese investors,” he said. “China’s development projects in Venezuela have been falling as they have been affected and destroyed by corruption or debt default.”

And China is ready to listen:

 Asked three times last week if China still saw Maduro as Venezuela’s president, foreign ministry spokesman Geng Shuang simply noted that a special envoy of President Xi Jinping attended his inauguration in January. On Friday, Geng said China has “maintained close communication with all parties” and ties “shouldn’t be undermined no matter how the situation evolves.”

He also makes sure China knows he understands their initiatives in the region:

 “In Latin America and the Caribbean, China continues to promote trade within the framework of the Belt and Road Initiative,” he said. “This initiative gives China a natural space to foster development across the region.”

Guaidó has laid the groundwork for a smooth Chinese shift from Maduro to him. This will be in jeopardy if it comes via U.S. invasion, which would set alarm bells off in China. China would see this as a threat to its investments and would be wary of the image of the U.S. government pushing it around. Yet another reason to avoid it.