Monday, June 03, 2019

Venezuelan Off-Ramps

Fernando Cutz argues in The New York Times that the U.S. government needs to expand indictments against Nicolás Maduro and more high level officials around him. One particularly interesting point he makes is that there is no trust for the executive branch in the U.S. at the moment, but there is for the judiciary, which would have to produce real evidence.

The main question I have here is, excuse the buzzword, the "off-ramp." Conventional wisdom is that there needs to be a viable exit option for higher level officials, both civilian and military. Indictments close those off. Once started they cannot simply be stopped. So if they wanted to leave the country, they would have few options. If they were to remain in Venezuela, then their freedom would be up to the government. That response would have to be very clearly and officially laid out.

In short, they are much less likely to voluntarily leave power if there is a threat they'll soon be arrested and incarcerated. It is not an insurmountable obstacle, but it does complicate the already difficult negotiations. The two sides do not trust each other, so any added complication is rough.


  © Blogger templates The Professional Template by 2008

Back to TOP