José Antonio Kast and Autonomy

It is unfortunate but not surprising to see José Antonio Kast's victory in Chile as ideologically pure in U.S. terms. In other words, he is conservative, focused his campaign on drugs and immigration, and therefore will be in line with Donald Trump. That could be true for plenty of things, but not for foreign relations autonomy, which as I wrote in my last book is here to stay. As an article in the Financial Times accurately points out, quoting Patricio Navia: “But he also understands that China is our main trading partner. So we’ll be with the US on everything, but without making an enemy out of China.”

Keep that in mind for most other Latin American countries. The U.S. press in particular likes neat categories--there is a left and a right, and we can point to specific people who embody it. Presidential elections will be framed as wholesale change when in fact plenty of core policies will remain or at least will be tweaked without overturning them. China (and Europe) now have deep ties and those are not likely to change drastically. Add U.S. tariffs to the mix and the incentive to maintain friendly relations with China is even more evident.

That said, one could easily imagine Kast being more concerned about whether Chinese technology poses a threat to Chile, and adjusting policy accordingly without touching the broader trade relationship. That would be in line with his own view and would potentially assuage U.S. concerns. And Claudia Sheinbaum announced new tariffs on countries with which Mexico does not have a free trade agreement, which includes China. This is quite a twist--it is rather Trumpian (and surely aims to assuage him to some degree) but with careful language to avoid the impression that it's ideological or punitive. It is not a break with China. It's just the Mexican president forging her own policy.

I don't think that any of this is especially new or insightful, but I do think we need to keep repeating it when we will read so much that Latin America is realigning or marching in lockstep with Trump. That's just unlikely. They are not "America first." They are "[INSERT COUNTRY NAME] first."