The U.S. Armada in Venezuela

President Trump announced a "complete and total" blockade of sanctioned oil tankers going to and from Venezuela along with a demand to return all the "oil, land, and assets" to the U.S. that were "stolen." The kicker is that he noted the "Armada" that surrounded Venezuela. "Armada" is a rather unfortunate choice given the famous losing history of the term.

At first glance this feels like a return to the late 19th and early 20th centuries, when U.S. presidents freely invaded and otherwise sought to control Latin American countries with pretty open speech. They didn't hide and Americans by and large were OK with it.

But an enormous difference now is domestic public opinion. Americans were generally fine with foreign intervention in Latin America, but now Trump's base is not. This is yet another indirect way of forcing Nicolás Maduro to abdicate because using U.S. troops in an invasion is a huge political risk. Some big questions include whether the blockade will effectively stop the movement of oil and how much Russia and/or China will help out financially. Another is how long Trump can allow this to stretch out given the warning signs he's getting from his own party about the economy.

I won't hazard a guess as to the outcome. We do know from Cuba's Special Period that dictatorships can persist if they do not mind the immiseration of their own citizens. There is no sign that Maduro or the military care about Venezuelans suffering--they've been fine with it up to now, just as Fidel Castro was with Cubans. It's really hard to dislodge dictators who retain the military's support. But every day Trump issues threats and nothing happens is a problem for him.