The Key Problem with Maria Corina Machado

Marco Rubio's announcement that the Venezuelan regime will have to submit a monthly budget, which will then release money from a Qatari account*, just underlines a key reason that democratic transition in Venezuela is a problem for the Trump administration. Democratically-elected (or even just democratically-minded) leaders could not accept such an arrangement. No one in Venezuela gets a say in the country's most precious natural resource.

If María Corina Machado were to return, there would be myriad challenges, but let's focus on this one for now. The U.S. could not say they would overthrow or kidnap her if she didn't follow its orders. She would have independent legitimacy that Delcy Rodríguez completely lacks. With that legitimacy she could dictate terms even though she might feel indebted to the U.S. for getting her back in the country. She would have the right to say no. She would not want to ask permission from a foreign power to spend her own country's money.

This will come as no surprise to people who know Latin American political history, but it's far better for the Trump administration to have a pliable, vulnerable, and undemocratic president in Venezuela. It carries its own problems, but it's better. The U.S. might not even need any military force to remove Rodríguez if she doesn't act as Marco Rubio wants--just whisper to political rivals that she's out of favor. Remote control authority doesn't work with democracy (it's not clear how well it works with dictatorship, but it's easier).

The administration has made abundantly clear that democracy is definitely not a short-term goal and is only hazily a long-term one. Aside from the obvious problem of having groups that detest each other, democracy in the best of times is messy and unpredictable. For a foreign country wanting access to oil and money, messy and unpredictable is no good. 

*The term "slush fund" is not out of order here.