Venezuela Invasion FAQs

Here are some FAQs I put together as a way to clarify my own thoughts on the rapidly changing situation in Venezuela. They are not exhaustive and some may well change as they are overtaken by events.

1. Is it legal to grab a head of state out of their country?

    --No, and that's problematic, but international law is routinely ignored by powerful countries.

2. Did Venezuela steal U.S. oil and property?

    --No. The 1976 nationalization was uncontroversial and the 2000s expropriation by Hugo Chávez was being repaid until U.S. sanctions basically made continued payment impossible, at least temporarily.

3. Is Nicolás Maduro guilty of the crimes alleged by the U.S. government?

    --He was definitely part of a web of narcotics trafficking and corruption but the U.S. government must prove his direct involvement. For example, the Venezuelan government certainly connected to the FARC and ELN in Colombia, but was it Maduro himself? How well can we distinguish Maduro from "the regime"? He is guilty of many things but it's on the U.S. government to prove these specific charges. All that said, I can't see any scenario that doesn't involve conviction of at least some of the charges.

4. Was Maduro elected freely?

    --No. Over time he increasingly had to use fraud to win elections and in July 2024 it was egregious. He was a dictator.

5. Is Venezuela a major source of drugs in the U.S.?

    --No. Cocaine trafficking is aimed more at Latin America and Europe. Fentanyl doesn't come from Venezuela at all.

6.. Should we compare the Venezuela invasion to the 1989 Panama invasion?

    --Use care. Superficially, both involved a president indicted for drug trafficking who is grabbed and taken to court in the U.S. But Panama is small and heavily dependent on the U.S., with strong ties to the U.S (Manuel Noriega was a U.S. ally for years). Plus, the U.S. sent troops, who stayed about five weeks.

7. Did the U.S. remove the Venezuelan government?

    --No. Maduro is gone but everything else is intact. Venezuelan security is still on the streets. There is no sign yet that repression is decreasing. Venezuela remains a dictatorship.

8. Who is María Corina Machado and why didn't the U.S. name her president?

    --She is the opposition leader who was prohibited from running in the 2024 presidential election. There was another candidate (Edmundo González) but she is the face of the opposition. She is popular but putting her in power would certainly require U.S. troops, which so far the Trump administration has not been willing to commit.

9. Is Delcy Rodríguez very different from Maduro?

    --She is seen as more pragmatic. What that means in practice is not clear, especially without U.S. troops on the ground. She is a long-time regime member and is deeply implicated in all its abuses. She is a dictator.

10. Should we expect a democratic transition in Venezuela?

    --This is unclear. Given his statements, Trump has little to no interest in democratization and he has referred to a possible future transition but it remains vague.

11. Why won't the Trump administration commit occupying troops?

    --Almost certainly because of domestic political opinion. His core supporters claim to oppose this exact type of military action.

12. How should we expect Russia and China to respond?

    --The message is that you can do what you want in your sphere of influence, your "backyard." That message is not new but it's reinforced.

13. Can the Venezuelan oil industry be fixed quickly?

    --Almost certainly not. There is significant disrepair.

14. What does this mean for Cuba?

    --Both Trump and Rubio have indicated Cuba might be next. How this would work is unclear because the Cuban military is far superior to Venezuela's and so an attack will be riskier and less certain. Cuba will definitely be hit hard by being shut out of Venezuelan oil, though during the so-called Special Period of the early to mid-1990s its economy suffered terribly after the fall of the Soviet Union but the regime held on. It is very clear that Marco Rubio's ultimate goal is Cuba more than Venezuela.