Reminder: Venezuela's Democracy Isn't Trump's Goal

Former Ambassador to Venezuela James Story has an op-ed where he laments that the Trump administration might be losing leverage to force political liberalization. Perhaps because it is impolitic he does not address the elephant in the room, which is that Trump doesn't care about liberalization, much less democracy.

The message to Chavista elites, long conditioned to see sanctions as the price of authoritarian behavior, is that change in personalities, not in institutions, may suffice to regain international legitimacy. That is a dangerous precedent in a system where the legislature remains dominated by loyalists, the courts are deeply politicized and the security services have never been held to account. 

This is not a "dangerous precedent" when you don't care. If oil flows to the U.S. then you're all good. Further:

It signals that international legitimacy no longer hinges on competitive elections or institutional pluralism.

Correct! And it all just makes more sense when you realize that this is totally fine for Trump. Come on, he's been actively supporting Victor Orbán (who just lost!). Story asks what the Venezuelan people should think of all this and the answer is simple: Trump hears that they loved his actions to remove Maduro and that's all he cares about. 

In short, Trump wants (and has) leverage over oil. Whether or not he loses leverage over liberalization is something I guarantee has never entered his mind. He never thinks about it because he has exactly zero interest in it.

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Throwback U.S. Policy on Terrorism

A hallmark of U.S. Cold War policy in Latin America was to label virtually any reformer as a Communist and therefore as a terrorist or tool of Moscow. And now we're back.

The United States was as concerned as always about Islamist terrorism, said the official, Monica A. Jacobsen, according to a copy of her prepared remarks reviewed by The New York Times and three officials briefed on the meeting. But, she told her counterparts from Europe, Canada and Australia, the Trump administration also wanted more attention on what it believed was an insidious, underestimated threat: the far left.

Western governments must combat “antifa and far-left terrorism,” Ms. Jacobsen’s prepared remarks asserted, casting the effort as an evolution in counterterrorism following the “global war on terror.” Her prepared speech defined far-left terrorism to include threats from communists, Marxists, anarchists, anticapitalists and those with “eco-extremist” and “other self-identified antifascist ideologies.”

Now, as then, all this means is that you can target your political opponents by labeling them in a particular way. "Antifa," of course, isn't even an organization, and far left terrorism is far rarer today in Latin America and elsewhere than it was during the Cold War. It reflects mindlessly casting around for scapegoats.

In Cold War Latin America, it led to widespread murder, torture, and misery. Those are the only possible outcomes. The good news is that this appears not be getting much traction except from the far right. 

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Who the Venezuelan Amnesty Doesn't Cover

Delcy Rodríguez says she is putting together a group of religious leaders to help oversee the amnesty process. The problem is that the government claims differ from NGOs:

La brecha entre las cifras oficiales y las verificadas independientemente es sustancial. Mientras el diputado Jorge Arreaza, presidente de la comisión parlamentaria de seguimiento, informó que al 26 de marzo 8.416 personas obtuvieron “libertad plena”, Foro Penal contabilizaba al 30 de ese mes 490 presos políticos aún recluidos: 303 civiles y 187 militares. La diferencia metodológica es determinante: el gobierno incluye en sus totales a personas con medidas cautelares no privativas de libertad, mientras la organización solo registra excarcelaciones efectivas de quienes estaban físicamente en prisión. Foro Penal advirtió además que la ley aplica en la práctica solo a 13 de los 27 años que dice abarcar.

But there remains the bigger question of who the amnesty doesn't cover, namely the thousands of Venezuelans who have been harassed, attacked, detained, and the like without any criminal charges. Their names are in databases and there is no sign that they are being erased.

That's beyond the purview of the religious leaders, who are tasked with the amnesty, not the amnesty's forthcomings. But all those people are living in fear or in many cases have fled the country. If a colectivo comes after you on a motorcycle, grabbing your phone, threatening, or maybe even shooting, then you leave the country even when there are no formal charges. And those folks can't find relief in the amnesty. 

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New Paradigm Shift in US Policy Toward Latin America?

Carlos Pared Vidal has a piece out in Global Americans about the new paradigm shift in U.S. foreign policy:

First, public signaling: a disciplined communications posture that frames the stakes, clarifies red lines, and compresses negotiating timelines. Second, economic leverage: sanctions, tariff tools, and related measures that expand the perimeter of bargaining. Third, targeted military action: limited in scope, often technology-intensive, and designed for outsized strategic effect.

I agree with the basic pattern but there is one problem*. Communications are very definitely not disciplined. At all. One key problem with both Iran and Venezuela is that neither country took Donald Trump's threats seriously because he so often threatens without doing anything. His communication consists of social media posts with lots of caps and exclamation points.

So the trick here is to figure out when he's actually serious, which is impossible. Trump viciously criticized Colombian President Gustavo Petro, then later said he was great even though nothing had really changed. He's done with same with Lula. Often his communications are vague and therefore not clear about what he actually wants.

Perhaps as the number of wars he launches increase, leaders will assume he means what he says, but I am not sure we're quite there yet.

* Given the Iran morass, I am not so sure the military action is limited in scope. Perhaps just because the U.S. has not (yet) committed ground troops. But that's not my focus in this post.

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Democratic Transition Timing in Venezuela

This is Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Fox News:

Q. You met earlier today with the Venezuelan opposition leader, María Corina Machado.  Right now, Delcy Rodríguez seems to have been working well with the U.S.

A. Ultimately, there will have to be a transition phase.  There will have to be free and fair elections in Venezuela, and that point has to come.  And that has to – it’s not forever, but we have to be patient, but we also can’t be complacent.  And so I feel very good about the progress we’ve made in Venezuela in three months. 

He chose both not to discuss the specific people and to remain vague on timing. Vagueness has been a hallmark of the transition plan. But avoiding mention of MCM is interesting because at the same time the administration just lifted sanctions on Delcy Rodríguez, who Trump is clearly very satisfied with. The 2018 sanctions noted the following:

“President Maduro relies on his inner circle to maintain his grip on power, as his regime systematically plunders what remains of Venezuela’s wealth. We are continuing to designate loyalists who enable Maduro to solidify his hold on the military and the government while the Venezuelan people suffer,” said Secretary of the Treasury Steven T. Mnuchin.  “Treasury will continue to impose a financial toll on those responsible for Venezuela’s tragic decline, and the networks and front-men they use to mask their illicit wealth.” 

Delcy Rodríguez still has a hold on the military and the government and the Venezuelan people still suffer. Clearly that isn't the point for the Trump administration. The point is the oil. Elsewhere in the interview:

The second is a phase of recovery.  And that’s what we’re in – the recovery phase – right now, where you’re seeing not just economical recovery going on in Venezuela, but you’re also seeing an economic recovery in a way that’s good for the United States.  I mean, they are shipping all of that oil to our refineries, and that money is being – the profits from that is being deposited into bank accounts controlled by the United States Treasury, and the money is going to the benefit of the Venezuelan people, not being stolen.

What I love is that in the same sentence Rubio says the profits from Venezuelan oil are going into U.S. bank accounts and that now they're not being stolen. 

 

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