The U.S. Midterms and Venezuelan Democracy

David Smilde and Orlando Pérez both have takes on the potential effects of the U.S. midterm elections on Venezuela. I'd say there are three main takeaways: there will be more oversight (especially over oil deals); there will more pressure for elections; and potentially Delcy Rodríguez will fear retaliation less because Trump's foreign policy is unpopular.

Overall, this is good for Venezuelan democracy. Many Republicans were already talking about needing elections more quickly but Democrats will be louder and more aggressive. We can only hope it means that Venezuelan oil revenue is not sucked entirely out of the country.

The last point about Delcy requires some thought. There is indeed something there because she basically had a gun pointed at her (which is metaphorical but only barely so) to liberalize. I would think resistance would take the form of delaying. But MCM's return will exert even more pressure than the U.S. And that's good! This process should be coming from Venezuelans. Even with a weakened Trump administration it is very hard to imagine her arresting MCM. The Venezuelan people would respond en masse.

In short, we cannot separate the midterms from MCM's return. They happened very close together so it's tough to see what caused what inside Venezuela. Taken together, they will make it very hard for the dictatorship to remain intact. But not impossible...