Bolsonaro's Even Worse Off Than Trump

Francisco Toro and James Bosworth write in The Washington Post that comparing Donald Trump and Jair Bolsonaro comes up short pretty quickly. They argue that the combination of weak party and recent history of impeachment makes Bolsonaro highly vulnerable, certainly much more so than Trump.

I agree with their assessment, but it also serves as a reminder that we have to be careful about overly flexible use of the term "populist." The essential element of populism--a highly contested term to be sure--is anti-elitism. A populist appeals to some vague notion of "the people" and argues the current set of elites are responsible for their plight. Bolsonaro did that quite effectively. So did Hugo Chávez.

Chávez could have easily faced the same plight as Bolsonaro now if the U.S. hadn't invaded Iraq. The 2002 coup showed he had popular backing but his political position was shaky. The rise of oil prices was critical for him because he had a mass following but was only gradually building his own political establishment to replace the old. In times of trouble, like now, Trump can lean on the Republican Party. Lula could lean on the PT.

Bolsonaro can't lean on a party, or economic growth, or a cash cow natural resource. He can only hold onto loyalists and court the military. That's not a good place to be in a country that happily used impeachment as a no-confidence vote.

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Whither the Brick and Mortar University?

Mike Munger asks whether brick-and-mortar higher education is disappearing, and say no. His answer relates to something I think is very important, which is that universities are social.

An online degree, an online dating service, a professional sports team in your city, and a proficiency certificate from Microsoft are not a la carte alternatives to a college degree. It is quite possible that the result will be positive, overall, with far more efficient, inexpensive online alternatives operating alongside more streamlined and well-thought-out in person experiences on the college campuses that remain.

The point is that the social aspects of higher education cannot be replicated online. We actually do have a lot of courses all-online or hybrid, so those things can be alongside each other on the same campus.* But there is so much more going on.

Ironically, it is very common to hear complaints about what Mike frames as the "student union," referring to organizations and even buildings that bring students together. They're a waste of money, the lament goes, and that money should be spent on something more strictly related to academia. Set aside the point that at a university like mine, the costs are often captured in student fees and not operational funds, which means they money wouldn't going elsewhere--it would simply not be given at all. Instead, it is useful to consider these organizations and spaces as things that make students want to be here physically rather than just online.

The truth of the matter is, UNC Charlotte is a really nice place to be--I wouldn't have stayed here this long otherwise. The campus is an inviting place and there is a lot going on to bring students together. I think students want to be here if they safely can. Higher education is not strictly the classroom.

* Some people want online-only because of work and family commitments. We're trying to help with that too.

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AMLO and the Mexican Military

In Proceso, Erubiel Tirado warns about the growing role and autonomy of the Mexican military, which AMLO has embraced. Among other things, the state is turning the military into entrepreneurs.

Lo que venía configurándose como una tendencia desde el sexenio calderonista (y continuó en el de Enrique Peña Nieto), donde su papel se empezó a expandir en áreas no militares, como la construcción de tramos carreteros y, luego, de espacios de infraestructura civil (por ejemplo escuelas y hospitales), ya no sólo en el ámbito federal sino para los gobiernos estatales, hoy es un patrón consolidado en la administración de la autonombrada “Cuarta Transformación”.

Under the vague mantle of national security, the military is involved in a wide variety of infrastructure projects at both the federal and state levels. He argues further that there is evidence the military's core ability to address threats is eroding. It's doing too many things outside of its training.

It's a fact of life that governments are using the military more and more for their own political purposes, which damages both the military institution and democracy. Covid-19 makes this so much more stark, as Adam Isacson and I discussed not long ago. Presidents see the military as personal protection, and that's not good for anyone.

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Juan Guaidó Talk

The Atlantic Council hosted a live 30 minute Q&A between Juan Guaidó and journalist María Elena Salinas on Zoom today. It was interesting to see him (he took tons of notes, including during the concluding remarks--what was there to write?) though there was not much of substance. He did deny that there were negotiations between the opposition and Nicolás Maduro.

One thing that caught my attention was language. For Guaidó, there is only "la dictadura." I think I only heard him say Maduro's name once. It became briefly confusing for me because the journalist asked him what "the government" was doing, and he naturally answered what he was doing, but then she also referred to "Presidente Maduro" so it's not clear which "gobierno" she meant to refer to. It's a long-standing semantic thing.

They allowed a single question to be asked, and sadly it was about Iran, at which point he rambled a bit with caveats about "we speculate" and "we don't know for sure." Russia is far more important than Iran.

His connection was not great, and I kept thinking that in my Zoom meetings we'd say, "Hey Juan you're cutting out!" and he's mess with something and say, "Can you hear me now?"

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Podcast Episode 74: Inside The Latin Americanist

In Episode 74 of Understanding Latin American Politics: The Podcast, we co-produce with Historias, the podcast of the Southeastern Council of Latin American Studies, which you need to check out if you have not already. We talk about The Latin Americanist, the journal owned by SECOLAS. We get into all aspects of academic publishing, including how excited we've been to be published by the University of North Carolina Press.

You can find this podcast at iTunes, Google Play, Spotify, and anywhere else podcasts can be found. If there is anyplace I've missed, please contact me. Subscribe, rate, and keep a safe physical distance!

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DoD Wants to Re-Open Mexico

The U.S. re-open protests are reaching Mexico at the highest levels, as the Trump administration pressures Mexico (e.g. through ambassador tweets, how else?) to re-open defense-related maquiladoras. The Defense Department is doing the same. Who knows, it might even be affecting the Space Force.

The most serious impacts to the Defense Department from COVID-19-related industrial closures domestically are in the aviation supply chain, shipbuilding and small space launch, the undersecretary of defense for acquisition and sustainment said.

We know that Mexico is in a particularly intense phase of the virus, since AMLO was still hugging people and pretending nothing was amiss until relatively recently. We know that some of these plants have work stoppages because of protests by workers who are not being adequately protected. We also know that the Mexican health system, like any other such system in a developing country, cannot handle anything close to what developed countries can.

Infringing on sovereignty by overriding health policy in other countries is a problem. It's an even worse problem when your own response domestically has been terrible and as a result your administration has no credibility about when re-opening is appropriate. So you end up with the administration's default toward Mexico, which is bullying. Up to this point, AMLO has smiled and followed orders. Don't be surprise if it happens here too.

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Latin American Leaders Talk Covid-19

A group of Latin American intellectuals and former presidents co-wrote a call in Americas Quarterly for measures to deal with Covid-19. The bottom line is the need for a huge injection of cash. It's not long and I recommend you take a look. However, there are two missing elements.

First, especially in the developing world, any discussion must include a plan for graduated reopening. You might not know the exact timetable but you should define parameters. No matter how much you can realistically stimulate the economy, people do not have sufficient savings (or any savings) to withstand this crisis. They will start violating quarantines and curfews. See Otto's post about migrants leaving Lima in huge groups. At the extremes you'll see riots. So what would a reasonable reopening look like?

Second, all the talk about international cooperation needs to confront the fact that the United States is currently governed by someone who has no intention of helping.

Latin American leaders should call forcefully for international cooperation to confront the crisis. They ought to condemn export controls on medical supplies and other critical resources, and demand increased resources for the World Health Organization, contrary to the reckless decision announced by the U.S. government. 

I know, I know, diplomacy and all that. But there needs to be more concerted Latin American criticism of U.S. actions. And good luck getting U.S. assistance with medical supplies or anything else for that matter. The U.S. is currently an obstacle for Latin American recovery.

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Colombia and Covid-19

The Atlantic Council hosted a talk by Colombian President Iván Duque to discuss his government's response to the coronavirus. They seem to be doing reasonably well, though like with many places there are lots of questions about whether in the absence of testing we really know the true magnitude. (For a critical view of his response, see here).

From his perspective, the government acted early to mitigate the effects. I winced when he said something to the effect that the quarantine was maybe the hardest decision ever made by a Colombian president because I am tired of hearing the constant self-aggrandizement here. He estimated that 70-80% of the population has received some sort of service, such as through conditional cash transfers or food.

That's where I had a question, and I submitted it but there was limited time. He kept the discussion at the national level, so I wanted to know how successful the government had been in providing assistance in rural vs. urban areas. If we accept 70-80%, then where are the 20-30% receiving nothing? The Colombian state is famously absent in chunks of the country, and so how are those areas doing?

He ended with a call (or hope) that I thought was interesting. He said the U.S. should "decouple" from Asia and focus more of its economic attention on Latin America. The premise--I suppose it's that Asia is more "dangerous"--is pretty objectionable, but I guess he figures it's the only kind of message someone like Trump might listen to.

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We Need To Help Undocumented Workers

León Krauze has a piece in The Washington Post about how we need to support undocumented workers. At this point, this should be obvious to everyone. Back on March 28, I noted how Republican conservatives were calling Mexican laborers essential. Nobody is saying anything about "stealing" jobs anymore--the notion, always empirical wrong, is now glaringly false. "Social distance" is a privileged concept. If you want to eat--and who doesn't?--then some people will be working pretty close to each other to pick food. Lettuce doesn't get picked on Zoom.

Krauze's article tends to conflate legal and undocumented immigrants, which is unfortunate, but his overall point is well taken. Access to unemployment benefits and sick leave would be a good idea in both moral and economic terms. Certainly, I would hope people think in moral terms, but for this issue I am fine if you insist on looking only at the economic effects because we have to eat, and I don't see you volunteering to go into the fields. We want people to be healthy and to have the option to take a break when they don't feel well. Otherwise we're worse off in both moral and economic terms.

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The World Bank Suggests Temporary Socialism in Latin America

The World Bank has a new report, "The Economy in the Time of Covid-19," and it is grim reading. It's also well-written and highly conscious of the human suffering going on. It is, in short, not your World Bank of lore. In fact, it advocates socialism.

To support jobs and firms, governments may need to take ownership stakes in strategically important firms. To avert a financial crisis, they may need to recapitalize banks and absorb non-performing assets. If not adequately managed, these moves could open the door to rent seeking and political patronage. The process of acquiring and managing assets needs to be perceived as transparent and professional to maintain confidence in the government. This may also allow decision makers to take urgently needed measures without fearing prosecution in the future. 

Strong arrangements need to be put in place to ensure that the acquisition and management of assets is conducted at arms’ length from politicians, building on the best examples of sovereign wealth funds and asset management companies in countries at similar development levels.

It's a "temporary socialism" idea, with sunset clauses.

In the medium term, the priority has to be the divestiture of state assets to the private sector. Individual cases will need to be reviewed, and balance sheet repair solutions be designed. Benchmark-linked sales of government shares in companies will have to be arranged. While this is not an immediate priority, government should communicate clearly on the direction of travel, establishing a timeline and setting up sunset clauses wherever appropriate. 

This is remarkable, even with the temporary caveat. Corruption is the long-standing anchor dragging Latin American governance down, and we all know there is a strong elite movement to avoid accountability. The World Bank is actually advocating injecting state ownership into that mix. I wonder what "strong arrangements" would avoid turning such businesses into personal slush funds?

On the flip side, if such strong arrangements could be found, they would be revolutionary, though there is still the question of how to make sure such state firms continued to invest in R&D rather than being sucked dry. Some of this depends on the definition of "medium term."

I've had numerous conversations with colleagues about what will change forever as we re-evaluate everything and find new ways of doing things. The crisis is forcing us to do this, and on a bigger scale if it can actually change the way Latin American governments deal with the economy, all the better.

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Steve Rushin's Sting-Ray Afternoons

Steve Rushin's Sting-Ray Afternoons was pure nostalgic fun for me. By "me" I mean a white man who grew up as a middle-class kid in the 1970s. I don't know if it'll work for anyone else (though I bet it would) but I immediately recommended it to my older brother, with whom I exchange regular emails about childhood memories and old commercials. It was the perfect escape from our current nightmare.

Rushin is a talented and funny writer, which means I laughed a lot and never felt he was getting sappy. And the basic topic of family could get sappy quickly. At core it's about his relationship with his parents and his siblings, mostly the brothers closes to his age. But his friends are in there too, and his memories of playing street baseball with a friend matched mine of Wiffle Ball, with clearly delineated rules about fair, foul, ghost runners (a term I had forgotten!), and home runs.

The memoir is immersed in popular culture, with commercials and products I hadn't thought of in years (the "C and H pure cane sugar" jingle was one such example). Many others were local to his hometown of Bloomington, Minnesota, which in turn made me think of my own local places that have long since disappeared ("Picnic N' Chicken, it's the pick of the chick," which actually sounds pretty disgusting). I think of all the places around here that my own kids will think of in the same way.

But there's also music. I actually had a quick exchange with Rushin on Twitter after I did a double take at his observation that the spoken word part of The Moody Blues "Nights in White Satin" freaked me out as a little kid. I know a million 70s songs by heart almost by osmosis. Cartoons too, and tons of them on Saturday mornings. The book gave me a pleasantly nostalgic glimpse back at those times.

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Is Aid to Latin American A Total Waste?

If you are at all interested in U.S.-Latin American relations, go listen to Adam Isacson interview Lars Schoultz about his most recent book In Their Own Best Interest (which I reviewed here). The point of the book is to ask why the "altruists" in the U.S. keep on doing what they're doing to "uplift" Latin America when it is clearly not working and might even be harmful.

What it means is a lively critique of WOLA itself, and indeed any other altruists (USAID, you name it). Lars argues that many don't know what they're doing, and their efforts at promoting good governance are not working. If development assistance isn't leading to development, then we need to rethink them entirely. Programs start and aren't ended even if they don't work at all. We can't measure "more harm than good" because such an endeavor is loaded with counterfactuals, but it's a legitimate claim to make, especially in the context of history, where we can see how often we did more harm than good while claiming to be doing whatever it was in their own best interest.

So, for example, does "building state capacity" lead to the funding of a state from which people feel the need to flee? Why keep on doing that? Ultimately he calls for thinking about non-incremental measures, whatever they might be (not revolution, as he makes clear). He uses the historical example of Costa Rica abolishing its military.

Adam disagrees with some of what he argues, and notes that. But some rigorous self-examination is always in order.

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Review of Stephen King's The Stand

I read The Stand when I was a teenager, a time when I think I read his first ten books by about age 15. That's a long time ago, so I didn't remember the details of the story, but I remembered how much it grabbed me and I've considered rereading it numerous times, demurring because it's so long. Ironically, a virus gave me more time and made it seem quite timely. It's a great book, even the second time roughly 35 years later.

The onset of the deadly superflu bears no resemblance to what we're going through now. It was so contagious people caught it immediately and died quickly. There was no stay-at-home, no real containment, just mass death to the point that people died in their cars on the interstate on their way out of town. Despite the superficial similarities to today, the devastation (the vast majority of everyone dead) keeps it in horror territory. The book is a big good vs. evil story with an apocalyptic backdrop.

Given the fact that the U.S. government was responsible for creating the flu and its carelessness let it loose, there is remarkably little discussion among the characters about politics. In the Free Zone, people talk about adherence to the constitution, and the best way to organize themselves, but nothing about what had failed before, or anger toward a clearly incompetent and heavyhanded government. There's just a bit at the very end about the slow return of armed law enforcement, with a whiff of "wouldn't it be nice if we all lived in small communities where we all just got along?"

Contrast that to Stephen King on Twitter now, as he rails against Donald Trump. Politics matters, but for some reason not so much to the characters. And, incidentally, international politics comes in just ever so briefly, as Randall Flagg contemplates things: "There might be another like him in Russia, or China, or Iran, but that was a problem for ten years from now" (p. 699). Other characters have similar fleeting thoughts, but no one has any idea (or much care) for what's happening outside the U.S.

And why do people follow Randall Flagg? The answer for King runs essentially along fascist lines--in times of uncertainty, people want a strong leader who get the trains going on time (this line is literally used), gives them a clear enemy to focus on and, even more importantly, seems like he's going to win. Flagg's appeal waned because people began to see failure, which made them wonder if he was going to win after all. He could be as horrible as he wanted as long as people perceived him as winning. That, more than the virus, is the relevance of the book to today.

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Using Venezuela as Distraction

Attacking another country to distract attention from problems at home is an old strategy all over the world, and used periodically by U.S. presidents. It's most effective, however, if you don't tell everyone that you are trying to distract them. There is sort of a Fight Club vibe in that respect. Yet I am not surprised that the Trump administration both is thinking of the strategy and talking about its purpose. "Please don't look at our inept Covid-19 response and instead think about using military force against Venezuela. OK?" And then, almost inevitably, the messaging breaks down and there is open disagreement about the purpose of the military force in the first place.

"This wasn't supposed to be put in the public until May," the senior Pentagon official who was familiar with the operation told Newsweek. "POTUS is using the operation to attempt to redirect attention."

So that didn't go as planned.

"Transnational Criminal Organizations and traffickers are seeking to take advantage of the COVID-19 pandemic by increasing their illicit trade activity, which can contribute to the spread of the virus among diverse groups of people and across vast distances," a senior administration official told Newsweek. 

Multiple senior U.S. officials who spoke to Newsweek on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly about the effort expressed "shock" at this conflation. 

The senior Pentagon official told Newsweek that the Venezuelan counternarcotics operation "has nothing to do with the virus."

So this was all bungled, but we haven't addressed the key question: will it distract anyone? This would require having someone who supports Trump for his Venezuela/Cuba policies and who might be wavering because of other policy debacles. Such a person is most likely someone of Cuban or Venezuelan descent living in Florida--no one else cares enough about Venezuela.* To actually change their position, or keep them in your corner, Trump would need to do something significant. I can't think of anything significant except for invasion itself. Would a few patrolling boats, a show of strength, have that kind of impact, enough to make people forget the unnecessary death and suffering at home? It's hard to imagine.

* I know that no one really cared about Panama either in the late 1980s, but attitudes toward George H.W. Bush were nothing like Trump's. He had tons of room to gather Democrats. These days you have to care a lot about Venezuela to move closer to Trump.

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Podcast Episode 73: Serving as an Expert Witness in Immigration Cases

In Episode 73 of Understanding Latin American Politics: The Podcast, I talk with Jonathan Rosen, Assistant Professor of Criminal Justice at Holy Family University. Jonathan has served as an expert witness in almost 100 immigration cases, most involving Central American migrants fleeing violence and fearful of return. Really interesting stuff, with an insider's view into the process.

Incidentally, I last talked to Jonathan on episode 61 back in December 2018, where the topic was exiting gangs in El Salvador. I recommend that one as well.

You can find this podcast at iTunes, Google Play, Spotify, and anywhere else podcasts can be found. If there is anyplace I've missed, please contact me. Subscribe and rate!

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Teenage Parents in Central America

Teenage pregnancy is a challenge for poverty-stricken areas, because it reduces the chances the mother and child can escape that poverty. The mothers, of course, take on a disproportionate share of the responsibility, thus sacrificing other opportunities they might have. Teenage pregnancy is a huge issue in Latin America, and Honduras has one of the highest rates of the world. So why is this the case? My dad is co-author of a new study that examines it.

Holly B Shakya, Gary L Darmstadt, Kathryn M Barker, John Weeks, and Nicholas A Christakis, "Social normative and social network factors associated with adolescent pregnancy: a cross-sectional study of 176 villages in rural Honduras," Journal of Global Health 10, 1 (2020). Full text here.

This was a cross-sectional study looking at adolescent childbirth amongst women ages 15-20 years (N = 2990) in rural Honduras, using reproductive health data on all individuals ≥15 years of age (N = 24 937 of 31 300 population) including social network contacts, all of whom were interviewed as part of the study. The outcome, adolescent childbirth, was defined as having had a child < age 20 years. Predictors included whether a woman’s social contact had an adolescent childbirth and the social contact’s reported perception of community support for adolescent childbirth.

The idea here is that a girl's social networks are all telling her this is normal and good. If, however, a government wants to decrease teenage pregnancy rates--as they typically do--then you walk a very fine line.

 If, as this evidence suggests, a strong driver of adolescent childbirth is the frequency of the occurrence of adolescent childbirth both within the greater community and within a girl’s proximal social network, the challenge for intervention strategies is to encourage norms that prevent adolescent childbirth without stigmatising those who have had an adolescent childbirth. Programmatic efforts to counter prevailing norms that limit a woman’s role to motherhood, and that support and encourage strong norms for girls’ education may play an important role in addressing this situation.

As is often the case, education is essential. They note later that education must also apply to the fathers--norms of positive and supportive fatherhood would also be beneficial in the case of pregnancy. Contraception, by the way, would also be nice, but perhaps next to impossible in some cultural contexts.

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Review of Rob Neyer's Power Ball

Rob Neyer's Power Ball: Anatomy of a Modern Baseball Game (2018) is ostensibly about a game between the A's and Astros on September 8, 2017. That is just a vehicle for discussing the state of baseball itself and how much it has changed and continues to change. With chapters organized by half inning, Neyer follows tangents related to what's happening in the game (Baseball versus baseball) as this single real one goes along, and it's a fun and wandering journey.

So, for example, pitcher Jharel Cotton gets some ground balls hit back at him, which leads to a discussion of injury and headgear. Marwin Gonzalez coming up leads to analysis of utility players. Mention of Win Expectancy shifts to how broadcasters mention new stats without contextualizing them. Khris Davis coming up starts with his power and then moves to his writing about having the throwing yips and then on to players using social media. You get the idea.

And I love this quote toward the end about what might change in baseball.

All we know is that Baseball will do something, in response to something, and that whatever Baseball does, there will be unintended consequences. Because Baseball is inherently a human enterprise, and humans don't know any other way" (p. 272).

Baseball and U.S. foreign policy!

His conclusion is also a bit wandering, and comes down to the fact that everyone should think of ways to bring in more fans. But, I think, those ways will create new controversies that will require new tinkering. And that's not a bad thing. I loved reading his thoughts on them.

Just a few quibbles. There is a lot in italics. A lot. A noticeable large number of sentences start with "Hell" for emphasis. And ouch, he mentions Yuli Gurriel pitching for over a decade in Cuba yet having "essentially zero professional experience" (p. 80).

As an aside, there is an interesting Latin America question--the game has globalized a lot but why aren't there more Mexicans in MLB (p. 179)?

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Thoughts on Trump's Transition Demands for Venezuela

Here is the text of the State Department's "Democratic Transition Framework for Venezuela." Some of it is highly specific, which would normally come as the result of negotiation. In this case, it is purely imposition. In that regard, it resembles the many Cuba "plans" that have been put together over the years, forgotten after the Cubans ignored them.

See David Smilde's Twitter thread on why it is likely to fail. It's about creating fissures in the regime and, as always, encouraging the military (including publicly once again). One of a number of problems are the new Manuel Noriega-styled drug indictments, which suddenly constrain what negotiations can even take place. You can't stop and say, "Oh, those drug charges were no big deal even though we harped on them for years so we're dropping them." You're locking in, and Maduro et al have visions of Panama and federal prison in their heads. That automatically reduces their interest to zero. Mike Pompeo and others might not care, assuming they're really just talking to the military anyway.

The overall strategy is to use the Coronavirus crisis to force regime change, to make life as bleak as possible so that the military will take action. If you're wondering, none of the points mention emigrants at all, and certainly not any U.S. action to help them.

Incidentally, Jorge Arreaza called it a "pseudo interventionist proposal of a tutelary government." It is indeed quite tutelary. And the U.S. doesn't have so many options after this--it has mostly emptied its policy gun. Mostly what they have left is repeated calls to the military.

1. Full return of all members of the National Assembly (AN); Supreme Court (TSJ) lifts order of contempt and restores all powers to the AN, including immunities for deputies; National Constituent Assembly (ANC) is dissolved. The U.S. lifts sanctions imposed on ANC members due to their membership in the ANC.

A carrot to members of the ANC.

2. All political prisoners are released immediately.

Pretty straightforward, though of course the government disputes what "political" exactly is.

3. All foreign security forces depart immediately unless authorized by 3/4 vote of the AN.

That's quite a supermajority. Is the Trump administration afraid too many in the opposition will want them to remain? I also have to wonder whether it assumes that U.S. troops don't count as "foreign."

4.  AN elects new National Electoral Council (CNE) and TSJ members who are acceptable to all parties or coalitions of parties representing 25% or more of AN membership. (This would give both the PSUV and the multi-party Guaidó coalition a veto over personnel for any of these posts.) Upon the selection of a new CNE and TSJ, the U.S. lifts sanctions imposed on former CNE and TSJ members due to their membership in those bodies.

A carrot for Maduro supporters, who can veto those they view as hostile. It's funny how they felt they needed to use parentheses to explain the rationale, which is not something they do anywhere else. See, see, it's a carrot!

5. AN approves “Council of State” Law, which creates a Council of State that becomes the executive branch. Each party or coalition of parties with 25% or more of AN membership selects two members of the Council of State, one of whom must be a state governor. The four members of the Council of State then select a fifth member, to be Secretary General, and who serves as Interim President until the elections and is not permitted to be a candidate for president in the elections.  Council members may not be members of the AN or TSJ. Decisions of the Council of State will be reached by majority vote. One member of the National Armed Forces of Venezuela (FANB) will serve as Military Adviser to the Council of State.

I guess if you are imposing rules, then you might as well tell them what laws to pass (with a high level of specificity). There's something quite Platt Amendmentish about this one. And there is a nod--albeit a formally powerless one--to the military.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think the "25%" rule effectively translates into two "pro-government" and two "pro-opposition." Assuming that's correct, I wonder how they would break a tie to find the fifth member.

6. All of the powers assigned to the President by the Constitution will be vested exclusively in the Council of State. The U.S. and the EU will lift sanctions on those who claimed Presidential authorities which were imposed due to their holding their previous positions once the Council of State is functioning and those individuals renounce any further claims to hold executive positions and acknowledge the Council of State as the exclusive executive power.

Who wrote this? The wording is terrible, but the idea is that you're OK if you claimed a position as long as you renounce it now. This read like writing by committee, where you wrangle and then everyone finally says, "Fine, fine, let's move on even though it sounds bad."

7. Once the Council of State is established and foreign security forces have departed (unless approved by 3/4 vote at the AN), U.S. sanctions on the Government of Venezuela, PDVSA, and the oil sector are suspended.

I will let you determine where the fine line is between deal making and extortion.

8. Council of State appoints new cabinet. The U.S. lifts sanctions on former cabinet members due to their holding their previous positions. The U.S. also lifts sanctions on members of the FANB that are based on their position in the institution.

A key detail here is "position in the institution," which means you are still a target if the U.S. government specifically deemed you one.

9. The international community provides humanitarian, electoral, governance, development, security, and economic support, with special initial focus on medical care system, water and electricity supply. Existing social welfare programs, now to be supplemented with international support, must become equally accessible to all Venezuelan citizens. Negotiations begin with World Bank, IMF, and Inter-American Development Bank for major programs of support.

This makes me think of George W. Bush's Committee for Assistance to a Free Cuba, which involved the U.S. government and private industry getting involved in every aspect of Cuban economic development in a hypothetical post-transition period. The "international community" will be overwhelmingly U.S., of course, and U.S. business will be right there. That's an underlying assumption of any deal.

10. A Truth and Reconciliation Commission is established with the task of investigating serious acts of violence that occurred since 1999, and reports to the nation on the responsibilities of perpetrators and the rehabilitation of victims and their families. The Commission has five members, who are selected by the Secretary General of the United Nations with the consent of the Council of State. The AN adopts amnesty law consistent with Venezuela’s international obligations, covering politically motivated crimes since 1999 except for crimes against humanity. Argentina, Canada, Colombia, Chile, Paraguay, and Peru withdraw support for the International Criminal Court referral.

Hmm. This sounds a bit like Chile, though in Chile names were not named. The idea, though, is that you have a commission that comes to conclusions that cannot actually be prosecuted. There is a caveat, though, about "crimes against humanity." That seems like a fairly gaping hole to me, and would be interpreted by all senior members of the government as something they would likely be found guilty of (and they would probably believe they'd be found guilty for political reasons).

11. The Council of State sets a date for simultaneous Presidential and AN elections in 6-12 months. Any Venezuelan citizen eligible in accordance with the 1999 Constitution can compete in the election.

Another carrot, to allow any Chavista to run, probably on the assumption they would lose anyway in a free election.

12. Presidential and AN elections are held. With a consensus of international observers that elections were free and fair, remaining U.S. sanctions are lifted.

This sounds identical to Helms-Burton.

13. Bi-partisan commission within the AN is developed to create long term solutions to rehabilitating the economy and refinancing the debt.

This one seems aimed entirely at getting the Russians and Chinese out of Venezuela and shifting it back to international institutions the U.S. helps direct. Otherwise it's unnecessary--do you think such a body would not address the economy and debt immediately? The U.S. just wants it done in a way that reasserts U.S. economic hegemony.

Guarantees

1. The military high command (Defense Minister, Vice Defense Minister, CEOFANB Commander, and Service Chiefs) remains in place for the duration of the transitional government.

You gotta throw a bone to the military, a little incentive to push and make this whole thing happen. María Puerto-Riera summarizes that nicely in a tweet.

2. State or local authorities remain in place for the duration of the transitional period.

What happens to state and local authorities afterward is not addressed. #12 looks only at the national level.

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Podcasting Latin American Civil-Military Relations

Over at the Washington Office on Latin America podcast, I talked with Adam Isacson about Latin American civil-military relations. I thought we had a nice, if not exactly uplifting, chat.

One point that came up that in my opinion merits more attention is the use of social media. Latest example: when the U.S. imposed sanctions on Nicolás Maduro and others, there was quickly a tweet of army support. It's just an assumed response at this point.

Also, we recorded on Friday afternoon in our respective homes and had a beer as we talked. I'd never had a beer while podcasting and I recommend it.

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NC Republicans Say We Need Mexican Immigrants

Unemployment claims recently hit record levels at both the national and state levels. People need jobs. This would be the time when they would work in agriculture, right? It's steady work and easy to find. Right?

No.

North Carolina conservatives successfully called on the federal government to unfreeze visa restrictions for immigrant workers. There is, in fact, a "labor shortage" at the a time of rapidly rising unemployment. There can be no better proof that there is no "stealing" of jobs going on here. Americans would rather be unemployed than work in agriculture.

Not only that, but immigrants are--as the Republican lawmakers say--an essential part of this country's food supply chain. I would think that would put them in an exalted category, something to be honored. Right?

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Covid-19 and Latin American Multilateralism

Mac Margolis has a thoughtful article on Covid-19 and multilateralism in Latin America. Right now governments are closing their borders precisely at a time when they need to join together to address this common threat. Alone they can't do it effectively. Regional institutions now are so ideology-based that governments move in and out of them, thus rendering them weak.

I agree with his assessment, but he does not mention one serious obstacle: the United States. We are already seeing a problem with Venezuela going to the IMF (which itself is quite amazing) because the U.S. insists only Juan Guaidó can do that. The Trump administration also has opposed UN and OAS efforts to combat corruption in Central America. The "America First" approach is built upon a paranoia of the multilateral institutions that Latin America needs.

Latin America already has a long history of failed attempts at multilateralism and unity. Hugo Chávez's latest version was founded on oil money and ideology and now is in tatters. It's always been an uphill climb, and now it's worse. It's like someone pushing back against Sisyphus, whose already carrying the damned rock.

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Covid-19 and Latin American Militaries

Long before Covid-19, Latin American militaries were once again taking prominent places in politics. Sometimes this was clearly antithetical to democracy (as in Bolivia and El Salvador) and other times just a mixing of military and police functions (as in Chile) that might have negative long-term impacts.

And now the pandemic has put the military on the front lines and in large numbers. Some recent examples:

Argentina: the army is building hospitals.

Bolivia: on the streets to enforce quarantine.

Brazil: an operations center for soldiers to deal with airports, ports, borders, etc.

Chile: over 20,000 soldiers deployed to enforce curfew.

Ecuador: deployment in Guayas province (not sure if elsewhere) where there have been a lot of cases.

El Salvador: enforcing the quarantine.

Mexico: mobilization of upwards of 250,000 soldiers for a variety of purposes.

Peru: military patrols (and one dead).

Using the military in a time of natural disaster is neither unusual nor, on its face, alarming. A big difference with the current crisis is that the duration. Like it or not, a major military presence in major Latin American cities for months might well become normalized. That's not a healthy combination with presidents--Bukele comes to mind, of course--who have already shown a proclivity for using the military as a political weapon.

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How Long Can A Crazy President Stay Popular?

Mother Jones, not exactly a fan of Donald Trump, has an article explaining why AMLO is even worse when it comes to responding to the coronavirus. Trump seems to teeter between acceptance and denial, focused as always on whether he is being praised. AMLO is squarely in denial, even as his own executive branch takes actions. For AMLO, "phase 1" of the pandemic actually means "spread it even more!"

“Don’t stop going out—we’re still only in phase one,” López Obrador said. “If you have the means to do it, continue taking your family out to restaurants and diners. That’s what will strengthen the economy.” 

This brings me to a question I've had ever since he took office: how long can he stay popular? Misstep after misstep, combined with total obeisance to Trump, left me convinced that his high approval ratings were going to crash at some point. And yet here he is. The late February numbers clearly showed a decline, with 59% approval and 35% disapproving. Those numbers, of course, do not reflect the intensity of the crisis. But those aren't bad at all. A drop, yes, but keeping up at 70-80% is rare. In Latin America, staying above 50% is practically a miracle.

This is Teflon that even Ronald Reagan would be envious of. I won't even bother predicting what the March numbers will look like. I mean, Trump himself has solid approval for how he's handled the crisis despite a host of bad decisions and contradictions. We live in strange times.

UPDATE: literally minutes after publishing, here is a poll showing 37% approval vs. 45% disapproval for how AMLO is handling the crisis. That is not the same as overall approval--let's see if that crashed or not as a result.

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Home For The Semester

Like millions, I am home indefinitely. I am extraordinarily lucky, being salaried and tenured, stocked with food in a home with my favorite people. My job right now is to help keep the College of Liberal Arts & Sciences going--there are both knowns and unknowns in that regard. At the moment, my interactions are through emails, WebEx, and Skype. I am glad for meetings just to remind me that specific days and times still actually exist.

This is tough on faculty and students alike, and I feel terrible for graduating seniors who can't savor their accomplishment as much as they deserve. My own son is a graduating high school senior and he is just seeing the year sort of fizzle out.

The idea that someone in authority is even floating the possibility of 30% unemployment is terrifying. Our national leadership is weak, which is deeply frustrating, though at least the governors are stepping up. We need testing and it's not coming nearly quickly enough, which is also deeply frustrating. People are panic buying, which is bad for everyone. Those without health insurance and the growing number of unemployed are facing eviction and hunger without intervention.

The Latin American response to the crisis transcends ideology, with AMLO and Bolsonaro leading the way in being buffoons in denial on different ends of the spectrum, though at least Brazil's governors are also picking up the slack. People in favelas don't have access to clean water or hand sanitizer, yet their president mocks the whole thing. Nicolás Maduro is taking it seriously, but so many years of incompetence and corruption leave the entire population--not to mention emigrants abroad--terribly vulnerable. There is better leadership elsewhere, like Martín Vizcarra in Peru and others (Boz has some interesting charts on Latin American spread of the virus). But we are learning what can happen when you vote just to "kick the bums out" and then a crisis hits.

In my own small slice of the world, there are positive things to focus on as well. People are trying to help those who can't get out, help local businesses, share tips on online teaching, share info on where to find essential goods (stop buying massive amounts of toilet paper!) and just trying to spread some humor. Sometimes there's not much else you can do.

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Joe McGinniss' The Selling of the President 1968

Trapped in our homes by the coronavirus, now more than ever is a time for reading. It has actually been slower than I anticipated because I've been too tempted to keep up with the constantly changing news. But we need something else to occupy us. As The Police said, "When the world is running down/You make the best of what's still around."

At the last UNC Charlotte library sale, I picked up Joe McGinniss' The Selling of the President 1968. I went through a serious Nixon period in the early 1990s as the anniversary of his resignation neared, and read a ton on him and Watergate, and that interest never went away. This book is a breezily written and entertaining account of how consultants used TV to transform an often unlikable candidate into a winning image, devoid of substance but full of nostalgia. It's also depressing, because you can see how vacuity became a political goal.

As one of the filmmakers hired to do some commercials said, "Nixon has not only developed the use of the platitude, he's raised it to an art form. It's mashed potatoes. It appeals to the lowest common denominator of American taste. It's a farce, a delicious farce, self-deception carried to the nth degree" (115).

Hostility toward the common person was evident. You wanted enough "Negroes" in ads or staged events, but definitely not more than one because you would offend the "Yahoo belt" of the South. And they wondered why they were unwelcome in Harlem. They didn't even want to advertise with college students--it might offend people. Roger Ailes (only 28 at the time) plays a big role and is as offensive as you would expect, with references to "broads" and the like.

Hostility toward the press undergirded the entire effort, precisely as Twitter does now for Donald Trump. The leftist press would never give Nixon a fair shake, so TV gave him the opportunity to do things his way without their filter. More precisely, he could appeal to people's worst instincts without interference.

Overall there was, as one consultant put it, "the basic problem of Nixon's personality" (161). The whole point was to avoid showing the real him. McGinniss closes with the funny irony that Nixon believed that image didn't matter at all.

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Nicaraguan Emigration

We have heard a lot about Venezuelan emigration, but the UNHCR reminds us that the problem is increasing in Nicaragua, for a similar reason: a corrupt and incompetent authoritarian government.

Nearly two years after Nicaragua was plunged into a serious political and social crisis, more than 100,000 people have fled reported persecution and human rights abuses in the country, seeking asylum abroad. 

Even after the initial surge of violence in April 2018 subsided, Nicaraguan students, human rights defenders, journalists and farmers continue to flee their country at an average rate of 4,000 people every month. With no resolution to the internal crisis in sight, UNHCR, the UN Refugee Agency, expects these numbers to grow.

The rapid spread of the coronavirus makes all refugees more vulnerable to illness, with no infrastructure to help them. The majority of Nicaraguans are going to Costa Rica, which can barely handle healthy migrants, much less ones stricken with the virus.

U.S. attention, and the attention of all governments, is elsewhere, so this will get worse.

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Review of You Never Forget Your First

I read Alexis Coe's recently published You Never Forget Your First: A Biography of George Washington. Several things attracted me to it: it was written by a woman, which is rare for Washington biographies; it intentionally looked at his less-great qualities in order to humanize him; and it had an informal tone (for example, with an irreverent epigraph and early on a discussion of the crazy names he gave his dogs). What you end up with is a highly readable and illuminating book that helps us see him as a human being.

Doing so doesn't detract from his obviously critical role in the creation and preservation of the United States. I would say she has great respect for him but not reverence. You can also respect someone while noting the ways in which they are imperfect. Washington was already being put on a pedestal while he lived and we all imbibe that in U.S. schools.

I do feel like the book became more formal/traditional as it went on. She makes the case for calling Mount Vernon a "forced-labor camp" rather than a "plantation" (p. 43) but then uses the word "plantation" many times thereafter. The profane epigraph finds no match elsewhere in the book. At the same time, she pulls no punches about his attitudes toward his slaves or his thin-skinned reactions to political opponents. The latter contributes to our understanding of why he famously stopped after two terms. He was sick of the constant attacks on him by anonymous authors who he generally believed to be Thomas Jefferson and accomplices.

I enjoyed the book which, as Coe herself points out, isn't intended to be a massive brick of 900 pages full of detail, and I recommend it.

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SECOLAS 2021

I have just returned from the 2020 meeting of the Southeastern Council of Latin American Studies, which was in Austin. It went really well, with great panels in a cool city. I ate a lot of tacos and did a lot of running on the path along the river. There were people meeting to run almost every morning. My friend and History colleague Steven Hyland at Wingate University is a master at putting it together. It's a welcoming atmosphere, with a lot of opportunities for graduate students and faculty to chat about professional development.

The 2021 meeting will be in New Orleans, so start thinking about it. The exact date is not set but almost certainly in March. You should come.

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Avocados Are Not Blood Diamonds

Ioan Grillo has an op-ed in The New York Times about Mexican avocados and violence. In short, they are not the new blood diamond.

After covering Mexico’s drug violence since 2001, I think it is extremely misguided to advocate boycotting avocados to fight cartels. When industrious growers are shaken down by gangsters it is crazy to hit them in their wallets again. We need to pressure Mexican security forces to stop extortion, not punish businesses. 

“It’s not a problem limited to one commodity,” said Falko Ernst, senior analyst for Mexico at the international Crisis Group. “A boycott (of avocados) would drag down thousands of hardworking families that have done nothing wrong.”

I got the same vibe from Nathaniel Flannery's book on Mexico as well, which I reviewed in January. Growers are trying to figure out ways to protect themselves and work hard to make their avocados fit the strict requirements of the United States government. Choosing not to buy their product will hurt them badly and destroy local economies.

He ends by saying a more important issue is stemming the flow of U.S. guns into Mexico. But I would add exploring ways to help Mexico build institutional capacity. A monstrously huge task, obviously, but at least one that does not attack farmers.

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Publication as Historical Document

As it does periodically, the UNC Charlotte university recently held a book sale for books being withdrawn, and like many other people I cannot resist. I picked up Samuel Flagg Bemis' A Diplomatic History of the United States, 4th edition, published in 1955. Bemis is the historian who published a widely and long-used textbook on U.S. policy toward Latin America, which I blogged about years ago when I was writing my own. Among other things, it's openly (like, really openly) pro-imperialist.

When you think of the countless readers of these volumes, highly educated, male, and white people who would likely go on to be influential in any number of ways, you can see how ingrained bad history could become.

So, for example, at the end of the Latin America section, Bemis writes that "totalitarianism, the shape of international communism, succeeded in intruding itself openly into Guatemala, and covertly into other states and colonies of the Western Hemisphere, without the American republics being yet willing to resort to more than empty words" (p. 786). However, "a successful anticommunist revolution in Guatemala temporarily eased the situation."

This is factually incorrect and a bad interpretation to boot, but there would be no way for anyone (if they happened to be inclined) to know that. Fortunately, that is not true anymore. I've been thinking about how what we write becomes a historical document on its own. So in 50 years, someone writing about U.S.-Latin American relations may take a look at my own textbook and point out how my interpretations reflected the era I lived in, perhaps in ways I've never even considered.

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Improving the Academic Publishing Process

Mike Munger has an interesting post on academic publishing. We use an archaic system that doesn't work well, so change seems inevitable. That change, he thinks, will be an online and transparent process with reviews and citations, with academic prestige given to those who (pseudonymously) provide high-quality reviews. Go read the whole thing.

I hope things move in this direction. I've worked with large publishing corporations both as a textbook author and as a journal editor, then learned more from our university library how their journal budget works, and this is mindbogglingly and depressingly expensive. Not only that, but authors--especially untenured, who have a short window of publication to keep their jobs--are unhappy with how slow the traditional process is. I would love to see the kind of system that Mike suggests.

I've published in all kinds of ways, which has taught me something. There are the standards: the academic monograph with a university press, edited volume, textbook, peer-review journal article, and the book review. But I've dabbled in many non-peer reviewed avenues, from this blog, my podcast, posts and op-eds elsewhere, tweets, and even an Open Access textbook.

The standards are great in their own way and convey expertise, but increasingly I find them limiting. My hope is that the traditional and the modern can merge more. In the book I am writing (at a glacially slow pace because of my administrative work) I've put chapters up electronically as I finish drafts. I have the privilege to do so, in the sense that I do not "need" the publication do I don't fear intellectual theft and if people don't like what I am writing, it doesn't affect my employment. I wish the publication process could be more innovative, more creative, and integrate podcasts, posts, and the like.

Make it an interactive intellectual process. I find that so much more satisfying. Writing a book, for example, is a lonely enterprise. You sit alone, thinking, staring at the screen, looking things up, and typing. You write some number of words a day and then reread them the next day to see what should be cut or revised. Maybe you have a writing group, but I think that's the exception. We should think of controlled, constructive ways to get your drafts reviewed online, a formal ways of posting bits (even in audio form) online. This is what we do in writing intensive courses at UNC Charlotte--it's an iterative process, with feedback all along the way.

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Bernie's Cuba Statement

A small kerfuffle as Bernie Sanders talks about Cuba. Here is the bit:

Sen. Bernie Sanders has sparked controversy with a 60 Minutes interview in which he appeared to partly defend certain aspects of Cuban dictator Fidel Castro’s rule late Sunday. The Democratic frontrunner made the comments when asked by host Anderson Cooper to clarify remarks he’d made about Castro in the 1980s, when he argued that Cubans didn’t rise up against the dictator because he’d “transformed the society.” “We're very opposed to the authoritarian nature of Cuba but you know, it's unfair to simply say everything is bad. You know?” Sanders told Cooper. “When Fidel Castro came into office, you know what he did? He had a massive literacy program. Is that a bad thing? Even though Fidel Castro did it?” 

He went on to clarify that the imprisonment of dissidents under Castro should still be condemned. “Unlike Donald Trump, let’s be clear, you want to—I do not think that Kim Jong Un is a ‘good friend.’ I don’t trade love letters with a murdering dictator. Vladimir Putin, not a great friend of mine,” he said.

Go read Patrick Iber's Twitter thread arguing this is no big deal. I agree mostly, but not totally. Where I would differ is that this is not about "accuracy" per se. Did Fidel Castro create popular literacy programs? Yes. Were there lots of other reasons people didn't rise up, some of them because of repression? Yes. Is it possible to give an accurate answer that does not praise a dictatorship? Yes. Is that smarter in a presidential election? Yes.

That's where you need to remember your audience and avoid political tone-deafness. The audience, of course, is mostly Florida. I do not know empirically how many Floridians who are in the fence and think about foreign policy as a reason to choose, but praising Fidel Castro is generally not a good political move. Crafting an effective message now is a good idea.

It's early and Bernie isn't the nominee, so this is a tempest in a teapot. But looking forward it's good to have a plan for how to respond to questions about Cuba and Venezuela. That is true for any candidate, but especially for Bernie because he's made so many statements in the past and they will be brought up endlessly.

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Podcast Episode 72: Nayib Bukele and Other Things

On Episode 72 of Understanding Latin American Politics: The Podcast, I talk again with Christine Wade, Professor of Political Science and International Studies at Washington College. We start with a discussion of what Nayib Bukele is doing with the military in El Salvador and what that might mean for democracy. Then we shift to the writing of the 7th edition of her co-authored textbook Understanding Central America: Global Forces and Political Change, which just came out.

You can find this podcast at iTunes, Google Play, Spotify, and anywhere else podcasts can be found. If there is anyplace I've missed, please contact me. Subscribe and rate!

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Podcast Episode 71: Latin America, the U.S., and China

Episode 71 of Understanding Latin American Politics: The Podcast is different, as it's a recording of a talk I gave last night on Latin America, the U.S., and China. This was part of the Great Decisions series, sponsored by the Office of International Programs here at UNC Charlotte.

You can find this podcast at iTunes, Google Play, Spotify, and anywhere else podcasts can be found. If there is anyplace I've missed, please contact me. Subscribe and rate!

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Chile's Continuing Protests

Pablo Rubio has a brief post at AULA Blog on why the Chilean protests are continuing. I also talked with Pablo about the protests on my podcast in December. Anyway, I found this part especially interesting:

A prestigious Chilean polling firm, Cadem, reported two weeks ago that 63 percent of the Chilean population approved of the protests and – importantly – 80 percent believe that Chile will be a better country after this critical situation. In any case, the plebiscite in April will take a place in an unstable context, with an uncertain outcome. For the Piñera administration, the challenges seem unlikely to abate, and pressures may surge when the school holidays end in March.

So there is some optimism! In an era where presidents and the public alike are looking to the military at uncomfortable rates, it is nice to see some confidence in institutions to resolve problems even at a time when confidence in the government is low.

On the other hand, this sets a high bar. People are counting on the plebiscite and eventual new constitution to correct problems they've identified. What happens if many people feel they are not corrected even after all that?

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Latino Voters in the 2020 Election

The Washington Post has a story about Democratic candidates trying to woo African American and Latino voters. Just yesterday morning I was on Charlotte Talks to discuss the latter (you can listen here).

The article makes the point that both groups tend to feel taken for granted by the Democratic Party. That came up in our discussion, and I said it was déjà vu because I felt like we've brought this up for the past several presidential elections. Right now a bunch of white candidates, mostly older, are trying to show how much they care about non-whites. President Obama's immigration record was not particularly good. Fellow guest Olma Echaverri pushed back, saying the Latino community appreciated his push for DACA. Fair enough, but I just don't get the sense that Joe Biden can ride those coattails.

Meanwhile, we talked about how Bernie Sanders seems to have generated enthusiasm with Latino voters, but the article points out this appears to be limited mostly to younger voters. Older voters, who go to the polls in greater numbers, haven't felt the Bern yet.

Mike Collins asked me whether it was too late. My response was that it probably was for the primaries, but not for the general election. Latino voters are interested in the same issues as other groups--health care, for example--but you need to reach out at the local level. This isn't new or original.

Finally, with regard to North Carolina he quoted something I wrote at Global Americans back in 2016 and asked if I thought it was true now.

The main way Latinos in North Carolina can potentially play a critical role in this election is high turnout for a close race. In 2012 Mitt Romney won the state by a 50.4-48.4 percent margin, a difference of 92,004 voters. If Latinos turnout in 2016 could reach the rate of African Americans in the last election, that would mean approximately 114,000 voters. This could help nudge results in one direction or another, but is not giant-like. That time will come, but not until at least the 2020 presidential election.

And yeah, it is. In this and many other states, Latino voters could be the nudge. In places like Texas and Arizona, it could be more of a shove.

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Regional Response to Venezuelan and Nicaraguan Migrants

The Migration Policy Institute has a new report on the regional response to Venezuelan and Nicaraguan migrants: "An Uneven Welcome: Latin American and Caribbean Responses to Venezuelan and Nicaraguan Migration."

Overall, Latin American and Caribbean countries have shown openness and even creativity in accommodating large-scale forced migration flows in a short period of time. This is particularly notable, given that most countries in the region had little recent experience receiving significant immigration. But what was once an open door to newcomers is becoming a more uneven welcome, as countries grapple with strains on already overtaxed public services, ranging from schools to hospitals, and continue to search for ways to effectively integrate new arrivals into local labor markets.

Looking at the map of how many Venezuelan migrants are in other countries is overwhelming. Not surprisingly, they often end up in the informal economy, then gradually resentment builds within the local population. There are just not enough jobs and resources to go around for a long period of time.

They call for more outside funding, which is critical:

Given the scale and speed of Venezuelan and Nicaraguan migration, international cooperation will have to play an important supporting role in helping national governments craft the right responses to these challenges. So far, global efforts to respond to these two crises—both the immediate needs of recent arrivals and the longer-term investment needs of schools, hospitals, housing, and other critical infrastructure and services—have fallen far short of expectations and of the needs on the ground.

With Nicaraguans, the focus is really on Costa Rica. It does not have the same regional scope as Venezuela.

If you're interested in this issue, you'll find this report to be worth your time--it gets into substantial detail about visas, employment, schools, etc. along with recommendations.

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Podcast Episode 70: Latin American Civil-Military Relations: What the &%&$?

In Episode 70 of Understanding Latin American Politics: The Podcast, I go it alone to vent about my flashback to the 1990s. The impact of civil-military relations in Latin America has become a major topic in the past year, and it's not good for democracy.

You can find this podcast at iTunes, Google Play, Spotify, and anywhere else podcasts can be found. If there is anyplace I've missed, please contact me. Subscribe and rate!

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21st Century Civil-Military Relations in El Salvador

Christine Wade has an op-ed in The Globe and Post about Nayib Bukele's civil-military disaster in El Salvador.

While the delicate situation is still evolving, one thing remains clear: Bukele is playing a dangerous game. In 1992, at the end of El Salvador’s 12-year civil war, the government and FMLN rebels pledged to resolve their conflicts through peaceful means. While certainly imperfect, that pledge has held for 28 years. 

Much of that success can be attributed to placing the military under civilian control and depoliticizing its role. Involving the army and police in a dispute between civilian institutions not only violates the letter and spirit of the 1992 peace accords but attacks the very foundations of Salvadoran democracy.

In El Salvador we're seeing 21st century civil-military relations and it isn't pretty. Bukele's running around taking selfies and the military is professing its political allegiance to him via Twitter. "Democracy" is redefined to be "whatever the president thinks is good for the people." Many Salvadorans support his actions, because he's just shoving things down the legislature's throat for the good of the people. The idea that the military is an apolitical and non-deliberating body is a stupid 20th century concept.

I am glad to see the U.S. Ambassador condemning all this. I do worry, though, that the real policy makers in the White House love what Bukele's doing.

One other point. Christine writes the following:

Heralded by many Salvadorans as the “first post-war” president, it now seems the post-war president needs to heed lessons of the past.

I agree with this, but it makes me feel old. I am the old guy complaining about the youngster and his selfie stick, with his newfangled ideas about bringing a few of his heavily armed friends into Congress to threaten them on God's behalf. I am old enough to remember the debates about the army's optimal role in a democracy, and how sending them directly into the legislature tends to send the wrong message about your commitment to democracy.

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Lessons For the Democratic Party From Latin America

Five years ago, I wrote an op-ed for Global Americans about the lessons Chile could offer the Venezuelan opposition for winning elections. Rereading it, I am struck by how it applies to the Democratic Party in the United States this year. Here were the takeaways:

1. Agree on a coalition leader.
2. Explain why the coalition excludes extremism.
3. Avoid personal attacks.

In the U.S., #1 refers to backing whoever becomes candidate, even if that person does not align perfectly with your policy preferences. This bedeviled the Venezuelan opposition back when winning elections was actually a possibility.

Now, #2 does not pertain quite so much to the U.S. because even Bernie Sanders' ideas are not radical compared to socialists in plenty of other countries. The Chileans excluded the Communists, and that just isn't relevant here. It might actually be more about explaining how your policies aren't actually as extreme as portrayed.

Finally, #3 gets to the fact that criticizing the incumbent better not get in the way of presenting a coherent and positive vision. The Chilean case sounds familiar:

The campaign to unseat Pinochet focused on the promise of a more positive future and incorporated criticism of human rights abuses into that theme. The tone of the campaign was mature, measured and optimistic. That stood in contrast to the dictatorship’s insistence that a “No” vote was the same as voting for communism.

Michelle Obama famously said the party should "go high." The idea is to stick to your message, not theirs, and that message needs to be inclusive.

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The Democratic Party and Venezuela

Columnist Josh Rogin writes that Bernie Sanders poses a risk for Democrats in a general election against Donald Trump. The reason tells us a lot about how the country has internalized the idea that the U.S. has inalienable right to invade whoever the hell it wants to for any reason.

In a September primary debate, Sanders came under criticism for not backing the U.S. policy supporting the overthrow of Venezuelan President Nicholás Maduro in favor of interim president Juan Guaidó. Sanders called Maduro a “vicious tyrant” and rejected the comparison of “democratic socialism” in Venezuela to the milder form of socialism he supports. But, he said, “what must not happen is that the United States must not use military force and intervene again as it has done in the past in Latin America.” 

Some Democrats say stances like this would pose a problem against Trump in the general election campaign. 

Think about that for a second. All Bernie said was that we shouldn't invade Venezuela, which is the only sensible stance to take. Lots of Latin Americanists, including me, wrote a lot last year about how invasion was a horrible idea that was doomed to failure.

Meanwhile, Pete Buttigieg wouldn't rule out using force in Mexico and Elizabeth Warren wanted to use humanitarian aid as a way to entice Venezuelans to emigrate. These are not policies I would ever want a U.S. president to follow. Other candidates, like Joe Biden, just say they "stand with" democracy in Venezuela, which has no meaning.

It troubles me that the Democratic Party is afraid to say, hmm, maybe all those invasions haven't worked out so well. Instead, they should be talking loud and often about Temporary Protected Status, confronting and/or cajoling Russia, bringing together a diverse coalition of countries together to push for elections, and other measures that might actually lead to positive outcomes.

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Latino Voters in Mecklenburg County

There is a local news story about how 76% of Latinos in Mecklenburg County (where Charlotte is) are not registered to vote. That's not high.

We have to remember that many are not eligible in the first place. This is consistent with other relatively new destination states in the south (the percentage of eligible voters in places like Maine is high, but I think the absolute number is low). The low percentage reflects three main issues: newer destinations have more non-citizens, lower incomes, and more young people, who are either too young to register or who--like all young people--are less likely to register than older people.

The Mecklenburg County trend has been slow and steady increase. Nothing dramatic, but clear movement. Right now, according to the Board of Elections about 4.7% of all county voters are Latino. I've blogged about this a number of times in the past, and this number just keeps going up:

June 2018: 4.2%
November 2016: 3.8%
November 2011: 2.2%

In 2004, the percentage was 0.2%. Two years ago there was a jump in participation, which is still low but growing.

So what do we make of this? It took many years for Latinos to become politically powerful in western states, and we should not expect anything different here. There was so much hoopla about the "sleeping giant" that in my opinion too many people had unrealistic expectations about Latino voters swinging presidential elections in North Carolina. It takes consistent and painstaking on-the-ground work by activists to get people aware and registered.

But each election, the influence grows, and when the margin of victory is slim, that growth matters all the more. Incidentally, currently 27% of our local (and very large) public school system is Latino. Charlotte is changing.

Update (2/7/20)

My dad read this and went into the American Community Survey to dig a little more and the results tell a rather different story.

Hispanics are 12.9% of the total county population
Hispanics are 10.8% of the 18+ population
Hispanics are 5.2% of the 18+ citizen population—those who could be voters

What this means is that Latinos constitute 5.2% of the total voting-eligible population, and 4.7% of all registered voters. In short, they are close to being proportional, not to the total population but to those can vote.

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Guaidó and Trump

There was plenty of speculation about Trump State of the Union address and Venezuela. Would Juan Guaidó be there? Would any new policy be announced? There was doubt because Trump was not far from Guaidó in Florida, but golfed rather than meet him. Ultimately the answer was yes and no, which has been Trump's basic strategy for a while now. Here is the relevant part of the speech:

We are supporting the hopes of Cubans, Nicaraguans, and Venezuelans to restore democracy. The United States is leading a 59-nation diplomatic coalition against the socialist dictator of Venezuela, Nicolas Maduro. 

(APPLAUSE) 

Maduro is an illegitimate ruler, a tyrant who brutalizes his people. But Maduro's grip on tyranny will be smashed and broken. Here this evening is a very brave man who carries with him the hopes, dreams, and aspirations of all Venezuelans. 

Joining us in the gallery is the true and legitimate president of Venezuela, Juan Guaido. 

(APPLAUSE) 

Mr. President, please take this message back to your homeland. 

(APPLAUSE) 

Thank you, Mr. President. Great honor. Thank you very much. 

Please take this message back that all Americans are united with the Venezuelan people in their righteous struggle for freedom. Thank you very much, Mr. President.

I have two main impressions at this point, and of course with Trump everything might be thrown out the window tomorrow. But here they are.

First, I increasingly think Trump sees Guaidó as ineffective--a loser--because he got nothing accomplished in 2019. Maduro is stronger than ever. Therefore I think the Florida snub was exactly that. No one knew until the end that Guaidó would be at the SOTU, since the only announcement was about former police chief Ivan Simonovis. I have to wonder whether Marco Rubio and Rick Scott whined, complained, cajoled, and begged to get Guaidó there too. At this point, Trump doesn't give a crap about Guaidó or Venezuela. It was supposed to be an easy win and now it's hard, so he moves on.

Second, like I've argued before, at this point Trump has no obvious reason to do anything with Venezuela except sanctions. Military action is already ruled out. Temporary Protected Status is anathema to his base and to Stephen Miller, who hovers at all times like a specter in the background. By just periodically saying tough things and imposing risk-free sanctions, he got Rubio on his side for impeachment. And letting Guaidó come to the SOTU might just be all he needs for Florida hardliners to stick with him. Even NPR lauds it as bipartisan. Trump wins all the way around.

Update: Trump will meet with Guaidó later today.

Past experiences suggest there will be talk and no action beyond sanctions. If he announces something real like TPS, then it'll definitely be a change of strategy.

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SOUTHCOM Posture Statement

Here is the annual "posture statement" to Congress from the U.S. Southern Command. The big word is "malign," used 11 times in 16 pages. China is the main malign actor with all its influence and investment, but of course Russia is also malign (along with the obligatory reference to Iran*), while Cuba and Venezuela are Latin American malign.

The other word is "competition," with some variation appearing 14 times. There is even a testosterone-laden argument that "Like athletes, we have to be present on the field to compete, and we have to compete to win." The irony about competition is that Trump administration policy is directly undermining the ability to compete with China. China offers money and the U.S. offers insults. Which do you think they're going to choose?

*Though actually there is far less mention of the Middle East than when Trump first took office.

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Trump Administration and Latin America Emigration

A news story about how Nicaraguans, Venezuelans, and Cubans all face major obstacles in trying to seek asylum in the United States, even though they are fleeing the "troika of tyranny." The Trump administration does not want them, of course.

It occurred to me how much historical precedent there is for this. Cuba is really an exception, where for years Cubans had a golden ticket (which itself created problems). The norm is that the United States invades and/or strangles the economies of other countries, thus sparking emigration. The essential point is that the U.S. government wants those people to go anywhere except here.

For some fun reading, take a look at the Congressional Research Service's "Instances of Use of United States Armed Forces Abroad, 1798-2020." It's a long document with small font, which you need to require the constant flow of U.S. troops abroad. We do love sending troops. It doesn't even include covert action or economic sanctions. Here is a Wikipedia page for U.S. sanctions, which is good enough for our purposes, and there are countless covert actions.

Anyway, take a look at the countries there. The U.S. is actively hostile to citizens fleeing the Muslim countries we have bombed, of course, but let's just look at Latin America. Central America is high on the list, as is Haiti. And now Cuba joins Nicaragua and Venezuela as countries hit hard by sanctions but not allowed asylum.

Further, it occurred to me that I've been thinking about Temporary Protected Status for Venezuelans in normal political incentive terms. You want those Florida votes so you work something out. That's just not as useful as it used to be. Marco Rubio is a strong proponent of TPS. Trump said no. Then Marco Rubio announced that even if a president committed an impeachable offense, he should not be removed from office. Rubio will do whatever Trump wants even if his policy preferences are ignored, and Trump assumes (correctly or not, I have no idea) that hardline Cuban-American and Venezuelan-American voters will do the same. This has worked well for Trump thus far.

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