Not a happy year's end for Bachelet

Michelle Bachelet’s December approval rating was 39%, with a disapproval of 42%. This has now remained quite stable over the past several months, but represents a 13% drop since December 2006. Strangely enough, Pinochet’s death one year ago ended up marking the beginning of a serious slide for Bachelet.

To make matters worse, the Christian Democrats kicked Adolfo Zaldívar out of the party for siding with the opposition on the Transantiago funding vote. The Concertación—and by extension Bachelet—is in disarray.

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Immigration in 2007

Peter Schrag has a level-headed discussion of immigration policy in the latest issue of The Nation. He examines the local laws being passed and the vagaries of public opinion, which is never as anti-immigrant (not even anti-undocumented immigrant) as restrictionists claim, something we should always keep in mind.

At that point the nation may look back on this period as another of those eras, like the Red Scare of the 1920s or the McCarthy years of the '50s, when the nation became unhinged; politicians panicked; and scattershot federal, state and local assaults led to unfocused, and often cruel, harassment. It may be seen in retrospect as a desperate rearguard attempt to freeze Anglo-white places and power in a mythic past.

I especially like the image of becoming "unhinged," which is right on the money.

h/t Bender's Immigration Bulletin.

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Conference terrorism

Ferule and Fescue has a phrase for academia that made me laugh—“conference terrorism.”

I believe I coined this term last year to describe those aggressively bad papers that hold an entire room hostage while they're being delivered. But last night I saw a slightly different form of terrorism during the one panel I attended: during the Q&A a kindly-looking grey-haired man in the audience attacked every single member of the panel (two of whom were graduate students, one a second-year assistant professor) with very long, very hostile criticisms that weren't really questions. The panelists did an impressive job of parrying, but it was a deeply uncomfortable-making experience.

I would alter it slightly, though maybe this is discipline-specific. I care less about bad papers than I do bad presentations, which sometimes are of good papers. For example, no one should read their paper—or at least big chunks of it--which I see far too much. I would certainly give exceptions for graduate students as they get experience, but in general we should all be prepared enough to present a paper without reading anything but a few notes.

I totally agree with the second observation. I have seen many situations where an audience member seeks not to engage the author, or even to ask a question at all, but simply to air their own views, which also are often slightly off topic.

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Huckabee, foot, mouth

According to Mike Huckabee, the assassination of Benazir Bhutto means we need to increase border security with Mexico. He thinks Pakistanis are second to "immediately south of the border" in illegal crossings.

No, I am not joking. Did I mention he is running for president?

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U.S. reaction to hostage release

With all the news about hostage release in Colombia, I started wondering what the official U.S. position was. The fact that Hugo Chávez arranged it, and Alvaro Uribe is being marginalized, can’t sit too well with the Bush administration. On top of that, and rarely remarked upon, is the fact that Chávez also arranged to include governments close to him, namely Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Cuba, Ecuador and France, four of which currently have terrible relations with the United States.

I’ve been looking all around, and am coming to the conclusion that the U.S. government is trying to pretend that it isn’t happening. You can’t really say anything bad about it, but your head might spin and green vomit might spew if you say something complimentary about Chávez.

I found two older references--at a late November conference on the topic, the State Department spokesman was asked about the situation, and he refused even to say Chávez’s name, instead just talking vaguely of letting Uribe do what he felt was necessary. Condoleezza Rice did the same in October.

If anyone sees any current official reactions, I’d be interested to see them.

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FARC hostage release

The FARC is releasing three hostages into Hugo Chávez’s custody—more specifically, Venezuelan planes, but Chávez was the key figure. The FARC’s decision came soon after Alvaro Uribe had given Chávez the boot, so it seems timed to make Uribe look bad. Most news stories on the topic do not mention a quid pro quo, or say only that the FARC wanted to show its affinity for Chávez. No prisoner swap has been announced up to now.

I find this a little strange. It is reasonable to argue that this is a symbolic move by the FARC to make sure Chávez stays in the picture and embarrass Uribe, but why do they not make that more clear? I went to the FARC’s website, which does not even mention the situation at all. Maybe it is a multi-step process that eventually will include release of FARC members in Colombian prisons, but everyone is keeping mum.

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Mark Prior

The Padres have agreed to terms with Mark Prior. I love this deal because I think it has no downside. Given his shoulder problems it is hard to imagine him getting back to his previous form (he didn't even play in 2007, and really his great numbers were four years ago) but handled well he could really contribute. Bud Black is a former pitcher and pitching coach, so should be in a great position to guide him along. I also like the Jim Edmonds deal of a few weeks ago. No blockbusters, but some solid signings.

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Graham Greene's The Honorary Consul

I read Graham Greene’s The Honorary Consul, first published in 1973. I was prompted to read it after seeing Jeff Barry’s review at Buenos Aires, City of Faded Elegance. It is set in the northern Argentine town of Corrientes, on the border with Paraguay, and tells the story of Paraguayan revolutionaries conducting a botched kidnapping, intending to get the U.S. Ambassador to Argentina but ending up with the Honorary British Consul.

For a Cold War novel it is noteworthy that Greene paints all the characters sympathetically. We are not inclined to dislike the police colonel, the former priest-turned-revolutionary, the alcoholic honorary consul, his prostitute wife, or the strikingly amoral Doctor Plarr, around whom the plot revolves. Further, they are all sympathetic to each other, as neither fear nor loathing is apparent. Greene is more interested in the relationships between the characters than the political context itself.

It has a tight plot, which constantly left me wondering how it might end (i.e. we know some combination of people will likely die, but who?). Throughout, most of the characters reflect on the circumstances that brought them there, which increases the tension. Despite the political nature of the novel, it focuses quite a lot on love and commitment—not only in terms of personal relationships but also political causes--as important themes.

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Another record drug seizure

Last month I wrote about the use of “record” with regard to fighting drug trafficking. Everything is a “record” to show how well the drug war is progressing. Now the news is that with the help of the U.S. Coast Guard, Costa Rica reports a biggest pot bust in the country's history. For reasons not clear to me, they explain it was enough “to roll 17,600 joints.” Since when did we start measuring marijuana busts in terms of potential rolled joints?

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Leaving Ecuador

The government of Ecuador estimates that 403,000 people have emigrated in the past four years and have not returned. Emigration has really bothered Rafael Correa (who has called it a “national tragedy”) and the government is working on a variety of projects to remain connected to citizens abroad and to encourage them to return. Of course, these efforts also include facilitating the inexpensive and easy sending of remittances. There has been a lot of talk recently about how remittances to Mexico have dropped, but to Ecuador they continue to rise (up 7.5% from last year).

Correa has also held talks with the governments of Spain and Italy, which is where most migrants go, in addition to the United States. Given the political atmosphere here, not to mention the fact that Correa himself was treated like a potential criminal by immigration officials at the airport in Miami, it is a safe bet that he will not have similar talks with the Bush Administration.

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Prospects for change in Cuba policy

Wayne Smith, former head of the U.S. Interests Section in Havana who is a longtime observer of U.S.-Cuban relations, co-wrote an article on U.S. policy for the Center for International Policy. It seeks to find some optimism:

Cuba is on the cusp of change. By contrast, there has been little change in Washington. U.S. policy toward Cuba remains as ill-conceived and counterproductive as ever.

There is hope, however, that the changing political equation in Miami, pressure from economic interest groups interested in trade and investment, and support by the majority of Americans for normalization of relations with Cuba will lead long overdue policy change after the 2008 elections.

I find the optimism a bit forced. The logic is that many Cuban Americans are becoming Democrats, which might create support for a change in policy, but then they also note that Democrats have failed to do anything. So far, economic interest groups haven’t acted in concert to pressure the government. The article also does not note that the Democratic candidates have very different views on Cuba so it also depends on who is elected.

One point I found amusing was the so-called “Grandmother Factor,” where young Cuban Americans don’t want to admit to their grandmothers that they either registered Democrat or lean toward toward the Democratic Party.

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Speculation about Maletagate

Boz has been following Maletagate--or as he puts it, “Bags o’ Cash”--in several posts, and I would direct readers there for summary and some comment debate. As I wrote in comments there, I think it is too early to judge reactions to the case, and there is still much to learn about it. However, it got me speculating about the potential political winners and losers.

The Bush Administration: despite the separation between Justice and State, in my opinion it is impossible to see this as an apolitical case. This means the U.S. has much to lose, because flimsy evidence will bring down a rain of criticism for manufacturing a scandal for political reasons. Convincing evidence—and “convincing” is obviously subjective—connecting the $800,000 and alleged efforts to hush up the main suspect (the fact that his name is “Guido” seems so appropriate) to the Venezuelan government could damage Chávez, but I doubt this would hurt Venezuelan-Argentine relations much.

Hugo Chávez: if the evidence is flimsy, it is more ammunition for criticism of the U.S. government. However, Chávez’s key challenges right now are domestic, and so I don’t think this will help him much politically. However, it could help solidify his relationship with Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, which is very valuable politically.

If the evidence is more solid, he will suffer internationally because his rhetoric has always been anti-interventionist so he could easily be labeled a hypocrite. As the latest Latinobarómetro survey shows, he isn’t very popular in Latin America anyway, so it might not matter more than marginally. Domestically, it could give the opposition some fodder, but again, the key issues in Venezuela right now revolve around domestic policy.

Cristina Fernández de Kirchner: I think she has the most to gain of anyone, though I must admit this is even more speculative. Her indignant response—even now including the Argentine Congress--right now has put the U.S. government back on its heels, which she can use to her own advantage because the U.S. doesn’t want to alienate her. If the evidence is flimsy, then she talks tough to her domestic audience, stays friends with Hugo Chávez, and extracts concessions from the U.S. behind the scenes.

If the evidence is more solid, she expresses disgust, fires some people, and reminds everyone that her husband already reacted aggressively right off the bat. Dealing with Chávez would be trickier, because it would not be plausible to say such an affair took place without him knowing about it. She would have to find a way to be critical while staying friendly, as she—like many other Latin American presidents—views ties to Chávez as valuable in pragmatic terms, regardless of ideology.

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How Cuba policy makes the U.S. less safe

From the NYT: the GAO is about to release a report arguing that the U.S. government is so intent on enforcing sanctions against Cuba that it is neglecting other, more important missions. The bottom line is that obsession with seizing contraband cigars and rum means real potential national security threats go unexamined.

Catching Americans who travel illegally to Cuba or who purchase cigars, rum or other products from the island may be distracting some American government agencies from higher-priority missions like fighting terrorism and combating narcotics trafficking, a government audit to be released Wednesday says.

The report, from the Government Accountability Office, says that Customs and Border Protection, which is part of the Department of Homeland Security, conducts secondary inspections on 20 percent of charter passengers arriving from Cuba at Miami International Airport, more than six times the inspection rate for other international arrivals, even from countries considered shipment points for narcotics.

That high rate of inspections and the numerous seizures of relatively benign contraband “have strained C.B.P.’s capacity to carry out its primary mission of keeping terrorists, criminals and inadmissible aliens from entering the country at Miami International Airport,” says the audit, a copy of which was obtained by The New York Times.

The audit also called on the Treasury Department to scrutinize the priorities of its Office of Foreign Assets Control, which enforces more than 20 economic and trade sanctions programs, including those aimed at freezing terrorists’ assets and restricting the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, but has long focused on Cuba.

Between 2000 and 2006, 61 percent of the agency’s investigation and penalty caseload involved Cuba embargo cases. Over that period, the office opened 10,823 investigations into possible violations involving Cuba and just 6,791 investigations on all other cases, the audit found.

This report will definitely be worth a read. It is absurd enough to argue that the sanctions make the United States safer, but it’s even worse when other issues are neglected as a result.

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Huckabee and Cuba

Next semester I teach U.S.-Latin American relations, and will definitely be using Mike Huckabee’s stance on Cuba policy because it so perfectly illustrates why U.S. policy is so poorly thought out and counterproductive.

As governor of Arkansas, Huckabee made a point of opposing the embargo. Like so many other governors of farm states—many of them Republicans—he thought it made little sense as it clearly was not working, and he saw significant trade potential for his state.

Now that he is running for president, he changed his mind completely because he wants to court the Cuban American vote in Florida. He claims simply to have seen the light, so that after listening to the words of hardliners, he realizes he must do what’s good for the country, which means doing nothing different. He does not elaborate on how that is good for the United States, but he does say it shows he can “stand tall.”

While courting Rubio's support over the past year, Huckabee said he began to appreciate the perspective of many Cuban-American exiles, who believe lifting the embargo would support a repressive regime.

''He really helped me understand some of the key issues that are so very important not just to Cuban-American community but to all Americans in terms of protecting freedom and standing tall,'' Huckabee said. ``As president I commit that we would veto any legislation that would lift the embargo that is currently in place because we must keep that pressure on.''

The Cuban American vote is no longer the bloc it once was. There is, in fact, quite a bit of debate about how splintered the Cuban American vote might be in the Florida Republican primary. It is therefore even more sad to see a candidate completely renounce his own views to pander to that small audience.

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Bolivia deals

Evo Morales finally has some good news, as he is making deals with both Brazil and Chile. After the 2006 nationalization dispute relations with Brazil had cooled, but now Petrobras is once again going to invest in natural gas. Meanwhile, all three governments are going to build a highway from the Atlantic to Pacific Oceans.

Citing Brazilian diplomats, the Reuters article frames the Brazilian move as a way to re-establish Brazil’s position of leadership from Venezuela. This seems plausible, as Brazil wants to be the regional leader and historically has had closer ties to Bolivia than Venezuela had. But there is also the simple bottom line—there is money to be made. As for Chile, Bachelet has been working hard to improve relations with Bolivia. The relationship is still prickly, but improved.

As I read the story, I wondered whether it would have any impact on the current political crisis. It could serve to enhance Morales’ stature, as he demonstrates that a) he can act as a statesman; and b) that nationalization did not mean an end to foreign investment. On the other hand, it has no impact on his overall effort to centralize power and the resistance to it.

UPDATE: Thanks to my student Chris for pointing out that Bolivia is also negotiating a $2 billion gas exploration deal with Russia's Gazprom.

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What next in Bolivia?

The central government and departments in Bolivia are espousing positions that are mutually exclusive. Four departments have declared autonomy, a move--the details of which are vague--the government labels illegal. Evo Morales, meanwhile, is celebrating the draft of a new constitution, passed by his supporters and labeled illegal by the opposition.

Nonetheless, even the government is saying the issue of autonomy is part of the constitutional debate and therefore can serve to initiate dialogue. Hopefully, the declarations of autonomy are part of an elaborate public negotiation. The OAS sent an envoy, and José Miguel Insulza will be arriving soon, which can provide cover for both sides to come to the bargaining table.

I haven’t seen anything more about the timing of the recall vote, which presumably will take place in early 2008.

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Thoughts on democratators

Maybe a year or so ago I spent some time complaining about the loose use of the terms “left” and “leftist,” especially in the media but also in academia. Thankfully, that has changed a bit over time, as the differences between all the supposedly leftist presidents has become clear, so I tend to see less of the lumping together. The focus now is on Venezuela, Ecuador and Bolivia (interestingly, Nicaragua never seems to rate).

Let me take Daniel Drezner’s recent article in Newsweek, however, as an example of some analytical issues that still need resolution. He notes correctly that both Rafael Correa and Evo Morales are trying to bypass the elected opposition, though of course we’ll have to see what happens with the Bolivian recall vote (which he does not mention).

He, like many others, now uses the catchy term “democratator.” The origin of this term is, I think, Guillermo O’Donnell’s “democradura,” by which he intended to mean “hard democracy” but can also be seen as a combination of “democracia” and “dictadura.” The essential argument is that elections occur, but executive power is highly centralized, perhaps even in a single individual, and opposition is suppressed.

So far, so good, but the devil is in the details. The article is about authoritarian governments, but he compares Pakistan, China and Egypt, where free and fair elections have not taken place, to Latin America, where they have. No matter what you think of Correa, he is not Musharraf. Nor is Chávez the same as Hosni Mubarak.

Then, after citing Chávez as a “democratator,” he then also uses him as an example of the potential democratic future of the world. The money quote is “the Venezuelan people rebuffed their democratator's wishes.” But if they rebuffed him, and he accepted it, and everything goes on, is he in fact a “democratator”?

As readers of this blog know, I have all sorts of concerns about the abuse of executive power in Latin America, though at the moment I think we should be more concerned about Bolivia and Ecuador than Venezuela. It doesn’t do us any good, though, to toss around terms that tend mostly to lump together countries and/or leaders of which we are suspicious.

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U.S. and Latin American Relations

My textbook U.S. and Latin American Relations is now out! If you teach a course, then you can get yourself an exam copy. It combines discussion of major theories with historical background and key current issues. The book has a variety of pedagogical features that are listed on the Longman website.

I guess the cover hasn’t been digitized yet, which is too bad because I really like it.

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Political leaders being...political

I have to say I am really mad. Apparently Hugo Chávez is once again providing discounted heating oil to the poor in Massachusetts. Horrible but true.

An article in CNN Money notes how this dictator—defined as a leader who wins and loses free elections—is making political hay by being nice, which is pure evil. I agree.

I also hate it when big naval ships go places and give people urgent care they otherwise wouldn’t receive. All that free pediatric care really gets my goat. Who do those kids think they are? I have nothing but dripping contempt for cross-national sympathy and understanding, which is really a waste of my time and precious tax dollars.

I just think that politicians ought to stop doing good things for political reasons. Humanitarian impulses demean us all.

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Fujimori blues

Alberto Fujimori was convicted of abuse of power and sentenced to six years, but he has a variety of other, more serious charges, still pending related to human rights. The interesting part of this particular charge is that it involved a warrantless search to see if his former intelligence head, Vladimir Montesinos, had damaging evidence like videotapes, which over time he had collected like comic books to blackmail politicians, judges, etc.

The National Security Archive just recently posted some U.S. government documents obtained through FOIA, which are added to a number of documents already declassified. One is a graphic account of the Japanese Embassy hostage crisis as members of MRTA who surrendered had their heads blown off. The second document is an analysis, essentially saying that although the rescue operation was popular, the “strong-arm” tactics that characterized it were starting to alienate the population.

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Bachelet's approval is stable and abysmal

Michelle Bachelet’s November approval rating was 38.2%, almost identical to October’s 38.9%, and up from September’s amazing low of 35.3%.

She is getting close to the halfway point of her term, and this highlights a problem with Chile’s recent constitutional reform. We read constantly about the proposed end to term limits in Bolivia and Venezuela, but in Chile we see the drawbacks of the reverse, i.e. terms that are very short (four years) and do not allow for immediate re-election.

The result is that lame duck status comes very quickly. Unless she gets an unexpected and dramatic boost somehow, Bachelet’s low numbers mean she won’t recover politically in time to get anything substantive done. The fight to be the Concertación’s next candidate is already well underway.

I must say I don’t get the logic of denying immediate re-election, but allowing one nonconsecutive re-election. I don't see how an incumbent president is somehow less deserving than someone who sat out a term.

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Latinos and party affiliation

I hadn’t had a chance to comment on the Pew Hispanic Center study of Latinos and their party affiliation. The general media response has been focused on the shift of Latino voters away from the Republican Party and toward the Democratic Party.

I would like to highlight another shift that hasn’t been much reported, but which I think is potentially more important, that of Latinos away from both parties.

On basic party identification, some 44% of registered Latino voters now say they are Democrats, compared with 42% in 2006 and 48% in 1999. Some 19% now say they are Republicans, compared with 22% in 2006 and 19% in 1999. Some 25% now say they are independents, compared with 20% in 2006 and 23% in 1999. In short, most of the movement among Latinos toward the Democratic Party in the past year has been an increase in those who say they lean to the Democratic Party rather than an increase in those who explicitly identify themselves as Democrats (p. 2).

I take this to mean that Latino voters view the Democratic Party as preferable, but as each year passes the party is less and less likely to woo Latinos to identify explicitly with it.

I recently did some work with La Noticia, a Spanish-language newspaper here in Charlotte, and I found that as of October 2007, 45% of registered Latino voters in Mecklenburg County were Democrats, 21% were Republicans, and 33% were “unaffiliated” (numbers don’t add to 100% because of rounding).

So although this is an otherwise worthwhile study, it misses the critical question of why Latinos are moving away from both parties. Both parties and the media assume that immigration is the main issue, but my hunch is that there is something much broader at work. Exactly what I’m not sure.

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Hugo Chávez and conventional wisdom

I think it’s fair to say that current conventional wisdom says Hugo Chávez’s loss stemmed in part from focusing too much on international affairs (including a lot of traveling) and not enough on Venezuela. I’ve seen this all over the place, from Oil Wars to Oppenheimer, and it makes sense.

Chávez, though, just signed agreements with Belarus, saying Venezuela would provide all the oil it needs for 100 or 200 years, and that Alexander Lukashenko gets a bum rap.

I have to figure this is not the best immediate post-referendum move, but as I noted, in Venezuela conventional wisdom has been messed up lately.

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Bolivian military

As I had been reading about Bolivia’s current political crisis, I thought that a silver lining was the absence of the armed forces, which have traditionally been even more politicized than many of their Latin American counterparts. Evo Morales was skillful in rooting out high ranking officers skeptical of his politics and in emphasizing nationalism--as opposed to ideology--when using troops to seize gas fields.

Fast forward to now, and the commander of the military gave a speech harshly criticizing the governors (prefects) referring to the cowards in their fiefdoms who wish to destabilize democracy. A few weeks ago, at least one prefect had asked the military to intervene. In the same article, a PODEMOS senator said he thought the armed forces were betraying military honor by not addressing the presence of Venezuelan troops and by being too close to the government as opposed to the state.

My guess is that very few soldiers would be interested in shooting at peasants allied with Evo Morales. Many Venezuelan troops were disgusted when called out by Carlos Andrés Pérez to attack people during the Caracazo. So at least for now, the crisis can be addressed, if not by entirely non-violent means, at least not by a military uprising.

At least I hope I’m right.

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Vote in Bolivia

I had written about the possible demonstration effect of the Venezuelan referendum on Bolivia, but this is definitely not what I would’ve expected. Evo Morales called for referenda on whether or not he, the VP and the nine governors should remain in office, in response to the violent reaction to the Constitutional Assembly. The governors have apparently accepted.

If the negative vote for each exceeds the percentage vote they received in their last election (53.7% for Evo) then new elections would be called within 2-3 months. Miguel writes that the current law is more specific, in that if someone received a plurality in the election, then a simple majority in the referendum would be required for removal. However, Morales is sending a bill to the legislature on the referendum, so the details may differ.

I haven’t seen any timetable for when the vote will occur, and the government has already announced that the constitution will go forward as planned (a draft by December 14) even though the constitution is the proximate cause of this particular conflict (ideology, of course, is the distal cause). Therefore, the recall vote is ostensibly intended to help break the political stalemate but simultaneously the violence will likely get worse. The atmosphere of the vote will be much more volatile than in Venezuela.

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Free Trade and U.S. Policy

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and a number of other senators just came back from Latin America and his statement upon returning hopefully shows some shift toward common sense in the Democratic Party. He argues that free trade agreements can be one element of an overall U.S. policy if done properly, but the obsession with FTAs as the be-all, end-all of policy toward the region is a bad idea (though, after talking about how great the deal was for Peru, he voted no, which is not exactly a way to inspire Latin American leaders).

Another senator, Bob Menéndez, came back saying very reasonably that we need to stop paying too much attention to Hugo Chávez, which relates back to FTAs since they are cited as the way to magically defeat him.

Unfortunately, the “free trade helps out allies against Chávez” is becoming conventional wisdom, primarily as a result of being repeated constantly:

“There is a growing division in Latin America today,” said Senator Charles E. Grassley of Iowa, the ranking Republican on the Finance Committee. “We ought to help countries like Peru that are not going the direction of Venezuela.”

This line of thinking tends to equate a vote against free trade with a vote in favor of Hugo Chávez. We will all be much better off when the two are de-linked.

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Daniel Alarcón's Lost City Radio

I read Daniel Alarcón’s Lost City Radio, a really good novel, based loosely on Peru (where the author was born) and the war with Sendero Luminoso.

The narrative really brings to life the shadowy nature of internal war. The rebel group—the “Illegitimate Legion” or IL—is rarely seen, and even a sympathazer who carries messages for them doesn’t know anything about their ultimate goals or their leadership (it is so decentralized, in fact, that there is no leadership). Rumors fly that they don’t even exist, that they were invented by the government, though the story makes clear—tragically—that they exist and are incredibly vicious.

The government is no better, routinely arresting people and torturing/killing them at “the Moon,” a desolate, cratered part of the country, and forbidding mention of the war. The government also renamed all the towns and cities of the country, making them numbers—much of the story takes place in “1797.”

The main character is a women with a radio show that reads the names of the disappeared. A young boy from the remote jungle comes into her life, which sparks memories and sets in motion a number of revelations that are gradually brought out through the course of the novel. I found the following quote nicely summed up the confusion and ambiguity of the war:

“The question was posed by the owner of the radio, and there was an innocence to it that Rey appreciated, a genuine need to know, without a hint of malice. “Tell us, sir,” Zahir asked, already speaking of the war in the past tense, “who was right in all of this?” (p. 236).

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Dick Williams in the Hall of Fame

Dick Williams will be inducted into the Hall of Fame, and although he'll be wearing an A's hat his importance to me was getting the Padres to the World Series in 1984.

Williams had a way of bringing success to previously underachieving teams before his hard-nosed style grew old with players and management.

True enough.

And his 1984 Padres made their first World Series appearance in history. During Williams' four San Diego seasons, a team that had had only one winning season in its first 13, never finished below .500.

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Aftermath in Venezuela

Of course, everyone is scrambling to make sense of the “post NO” era in Venezuelan politics. What’s absolutely fascinating—and what makes predictions so difficult—is that conventional wisdom was turned on its head. Low turnout was supposed to hurt the opposition, not the government. Polls were supposed to be wrong because they were politically motivated.

Chávez still has the enabling laws, and is committed to his vision of 21^st Century Socialism regardless of the vote, which may lead to renewed conflict before long, but I am mostly inclined to put a positive spin on the results.

--Democracy worked. Chávez lost and accepted it. It’s obvious, but bears repeating. There have been countless facile comparisons to Fidel Castro, but Fidel has never participated in anything but fully cooked elections, and there is no way Fidel would ever accept electoral defeat.

--As a result, the opposition likely won’t keep up the abstention strategy for elections. Democracy is strengthened when everyone participates and accepts losing as a normal event.

--Chávez was defiant but relatively subdued, and neither side hurled outlandish insults at each other. It’s hard to imagine that state of affairs lasting very long, but at least for now…

--Aside from a very small amount of crowing, the U.S. government kept its collective mouth shut, which is good for everyone.

--Perhaps this is wishful thinking because the political contexts are different, but there is potentially a positive demonstration effect for Bolivia and Ecuador.

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Ambassador to Chile

I've had no opportunity to read much of anything about the Venezuelan referendum because I was in DC all day to participate in a seminar to help brief the new U.S. Ambassador to Chile, who heads to his post next week. My own presentation focused on the political and economic consensus in Chile to adhere to the market model and keep the Concertación together, and how Bachelet's election raised expectations even though she was not challenging that consensus, which in turn has led to criticisms from both the left and the right.

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Constitutions

As Venezuelans go to vote, it is worth noting that the country’s constitutional debate is not the only one in the region, and not even the most conflictive. Ecuador’s constitutional assembly recently dissolved the legislature and took over its powers while it drafts a new constitution to be presented in a referendum within eight months. As in Venezuela and a number of other Latin American countries, the opposition is disorganized and fractured, offering no alternative vision.

In Bolivia the situation is worse than either Venezuela or Ecuador in terms of political conflict, as the constitutional assembly holed up in a military installation without the opposition (which boycotted) and approved an initial draft of a new constitution in the midst of very violent protest. This draft, however, has not officially been made public and as yet there is no timetable for considering each separate article. Miguel has an interesting post and subsequent debate in the comments.

The truth is that Venezuela has oil and a flamboyant president whose insults and tirades are Vesuvius-like, so it receives the vast majority of the attention (including, I should say, from me). Constitutional proposals in Ecuador and Bolivia do get a lot of attention from bloggers, but in the U.S. media are either ignored or vaguely lumped together as “leftists” or Chávez clones.

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You know the Venezuelan referendum rhetoric is really getting weird when...

...the Finance Minister accuses the opposition of hoarding toilet paper to influence the vote. Apparently without irony he said this was "playing dirty."

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Be like Mike

Kudos to NC Governor Mike Easley. On the community college flap:

"The people we are talking about were brought here as babies and young children through no fault of their own," he said. "They distinguished themselves throughout our K-12 system. Now, I'm not willing to grind my heel in their faces and slam the door on them."

As always, views on immigration do not fall neatly within partisan lines. During the last Republican debate, Mike Huckabee—certainly no liberal—said almost the exact same thing:

“In all due respect, we are a better country than to punish children for what their parents did. We're a better country than that.”

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Civilians and the military

I had the interesting opportunity today to participate in a video conference with some Colombian academics, Defense Ministry advisors, and several retired Colombian generals. The topic was military autonomy, and the presentations/conversation kept coming back to the issue I brought up in an article review I did earlier this month, namely lack of civilian initiative and expertise, which is also a part of my research on the military’s role in intelligence.

My talk focused more on the Southern Cone, but the other presenters noted the dynamics are the same in Colombia—civilians have only slowly become more knowledgeable about defense and the military in general (until relatively recently the Defense Minister was an active-duty officer). The combination of lack of civilian experience and military skepticism of civilian ministerial leadership has led to several clashes (or, as one general put it, “choques”) at the ministry, with disputes, resignations, etc. This doesn’t mean any threat to civilian rule, but the civil-military gulf remains.

Much of my work has focused on the military encroaching on civilian authority, which has often been a problem, but it is also true that the armed forces really want more civilians to know how to speak their language and understand defense, and very few civilians do so. That, in turn, can create long-term problems. The big question is how to convince more civilians that studying and understanding defense can enhance political stability in the long run.

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Community college and illegal immigration

The debate about whether illegal immigrants should receive in-state college tuition has been a hot one, but in North Carolina there is a new twist. The counsel for NC’s community colleges has ordered all of the colleges to accept illegal immigrants, though only if they can prove they’re a high school graduate or an adult in need of skills training, whereas before it was up to each college to decide.

However, there’s no question about in-state tuition—they have to pay out of state. A full community college class load is $7,465 while the cost for the state of a full time load is $5,375.

As you might guess, the idea bends some people out of shape. They are, it seems, very upset about people who want to obtain education so badly that they’re willing to overpay, so that the state actually nets $2,090 per full time student.

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FORA.tv

I received an email from William Phung, who works on FORA.tv, a new site that has a wide variety of videos of talks on political issues. There is a section on Latin America. The idea is that extended videos--as opposed to brief YouTube clips--provide more depth. It's worth a look--for example, you can watch a conference with Fukuyama criticizing Latin American populism, or a speech the Venezuelan ambassador gave explaining why critics of Chávez are wrong.

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Freezing

Following up on yesterday's post, in which I wondered what Venezuela "freezing" relations with Colombia and Spain actually meant, the Spanish government had the same question.

The answer? It means nothing. The Venezuelan ambassador to Spain said that there would be "no change" in bilateral relations. With regard to the vague threats against Spanish companies, the Spanish Deputy Foreign Minister's response was that Chávez's remarks "are not very far removed from what he has been saying these days." In other words, Chávez says crazy stuff all the time and we just try to ignore it.

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What’s a matta you, hey, gotta no respect?

Hugo Chávez has put Venezuelan-Colombian relations “in the freezer,” but it’s not yet clear what that will mean in practical terms. Normally I associate “freeze” with much more serious disputes—U.S.-North Korea, for example--that may even include sanctions. From Chávez’s statements, it seems—like with Spain and the “Shaddap you face” case —to consist of vague warnings aimed in part at Colombian companies. This also seems different from other “freezes” because these issues are based on personal slights, though of course such slights can also be viewed as disrespect for Venezuela, since he is head of state.

I am undecided about how serious this will be in the longer term. Right now the best thing would be for both presidents to stop issuing public statements calling each other liars, promoters of terrorism, etc. Actually, this is one of those rare instances where Uribe’s statements were much more inflammatory than Chávez’s.

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Trading with Cuba

Via Havana Note: I’ve written multiple times about all the U.S. governors and farmers heading to Cuba to negotiate cash-only (and perfectly legal) transactions. Now representative in some of those same states are pursuing legislation that would disallow investment in their own companies and might, if read in a certain way, even label their own Republican governors as supporters of terrorism.

In a rush to be tough on terror, a number of state legislators from Massachusetts to Michigan are attempting to push through bills that would require their state's public pension funds to sell off certain investments with countries on the U.S. State Department's list of state sponsors of terrorism. Guess which country is still on that list? (It rhymes with "Tuba.")

Cuba policy at the federal level is already incoherent enough. Add state legislators to the mix and you’ve got pure lunacy.

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Taking it to the empire?

The Venezuelan government has long decried the use of U.S. government money to fund opposition within the country. It is political intervention, an attack on sovereignty and therefore unacceptable. So now Hugo Chávez figures he might as well do it too.

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I want my two dollars

Following up on the question of why President Bachelet’s approval ratings are so low, the Chilean senate provides two reminders. First, there are serious divides within the Concertación that she has been unable to reconcile. Second, very few people feel she can fix Transantiago.

These were highlighted by the fact that Bachelet requested $92 million to address Transantiago problems. The Senate—including two members of the Concertación—approved $2. Not $2 million. Two dollars (“didn’t ask for a dime”). A major no-confidence vote—the opposition is demanding an entire “redesign” (the details of which are, naturally, sparse). The debate on the senate floor became heated between members of the Concertación (specifically aimed at Adolfo Zaldívar, a Christian Democrat who voted with the Alianza).

This makes me wonder whether any research has been done on the rise of presidential approval ratings. Anecdotally, it's clear that a) presidents often get a honeymoon period; and b) high approval ratings can drop precipitously. But how often do they rise quickly in the middle of a term? Given the depth of feeling against her and just over two years before the next election (for which she cannot stand) can she recover politically?

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Lake Norman Turket Trot

In what is becoming a family tradition, we did a run again this year on Thanksgiving morning—there is a new (well, second year) 10K just north of here, the Lake Norman Turkey Trot. They actually had more than double the number of runners from last year, and the other Charlotte Turkey Trot is now huge and crowded (which is one reason we decided to switch from last year).

The only downer was that directly after the race, we had to listen to a guy make a pitch for a new drug he said he developed, which would: prolong life, address impotence, help deal with arthritis and insomnia, eliminate chest pains, and I think there were a few other things but I had tuned it out by then.

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Feature on Bachelet

David Rieff in the NYT has a long and sympathetic article on Michelle Bachelet. Overall it’s solid with regard to the challenges Bachelet faces, with some interesting interviews. However, I do not think the article does a good job of explaining why her approval ratings are so low (they bumped up recently but remain under 40%) and why so many protests have erupted.

Because Chileans are like everyone else and can’t go on being grateful for how much better things are in the present than they were in the past, they don’t tend to see things that way, nor should they be expected to.

This is the thread that runs through the article--which, incidentally, does not interview any labor leaders, student leaders, unhappy members of the Socialist Party or PPD, etc.--is that Chileans are doing perfectly fine but just want more, and are annoyed that they don’t get it faster.

Given the intensity of the protests in the past 18 months, which were in response to multiple socio-economic problems, it is a stretch to say they’re based on relatively well-off Chileans just wanting to be more like Singapore or South Korea (which is another argument the author makes).

On the issue of poverty, the article provides statistics lower than any I’ve seen, saying the poverty rate is 10-15%, and that the government claims it is even lower. The Economic Commission for Latin America lists Chile’s poverty rate in 2003 as 18.7%, down from 38.6% in 1990. This can seem like a quibble, but I think it helps explain why many Chileans are dissatisfied. Yes, Chile has reduced poverty, but about 1 in 5 Chileans is poor, and inequality is among the highest in Latin America (generally second to Brazil). If you don’t include that in an analysis, then I don’t think you can really understand why Bachelet has had so many problems.

She did not create those problems, but a common perception is that she hasn’t been very successful in addressing them, especially given her campaign promises.

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Latinobarómetro 2007

It is that time of year again—the 2007 Latinobarómetro is here. It is a 112 page report so the best idea is just to browse through. Some highlights:

--only in Uruguay and Venezuela did a majority of people indicate satisfaction with democracy.

--Venezuelans were the most likely to say they had been a victim of a crime.

--by far, Venezuelans were most satisfied with the current and future economic situation of the country.

--by far, Brazilians were the most likely to say they had been a victim of corruption (2/3 of respondents).

--people across Latin America have more confidence in the military than in the police, judicial system, congress or political parties.

--in no country did a majority say that privatization was good for the country. Interestingly, Venezuelans ranked the highest (47% said privatization was good). Argentina was lowest at 19%.

--majorities in about half the countries said that a market economy was best for the country (Colombia was highest; Guatemala lowest). However, almost all countries showed a noticeable drop in that number since 2002.

--only in Venezuela did a majority of respondents say the country had a “just” distribution of wealth. No other country even reached 1/3.

--on a ranking of the political left and right, respondents in the Dominican Republic were more on the right, and Guatemala was most leftist. Latin Americans as a whole ranked themselves almost exactly in the center (5.3 on a 10 point scale).

--Lula is the most popular president in the region. Interestingly, Hugo Chávez ranked very low, beneath George W. Bush.

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El Plan Béisbol

There is a long and interesting article at Espn.com about Venezuela and Major League Baseball. The upshot is that MLB teams are pulling some operations out the country because of concerns about politicization of the sport and possible nationalization. In particular, there is a legislative proposal to require Venezuelan players to pay 10% of any signing bonus to the government, and for the Venezuelan Baseball Association to oversee all aspects of baseball in the country.

Part of the problem is that the Venezuelan government has remained vague, which fosters more rumors, but its ambassador to the U.S. says it will soon unveil “El Plan Béisbol” to lay out the government’s role. In general, the article emphasizes that there remains plenty of space for dialogue.

It’s hard to comment much until the details are worked out, but the money involved with MLB creates a predatory atmosphere. It seems reasonable for the Venezuelan government to step in the middle in some manner—exactly how is of course the big question. My sense from the article is that the government would take some sort of cut, which would then be funneled back into community baseball (building parks, buying equipment, etc.). I would hope it would also mean some form of protection for the young kids being courted by teams--exactly how I don’t know, perhaps even just having someone read and go over a contract before signing. In return, there would have to be assurances about protecting MLB’s investments.

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Bart Jones’ ¡Hugo! The Hugo Chávez Story From Mud Hut to Perpetual Revolution

It’s hard for any biography of Hugo Chávez to avoid a tendency toward either hagiography or venom. In ¡Hugo! Bart Jones, who is openly sympathetic to Chávez, does a good job of examining Chávez’s life and actions from a variety of perspectives. I recommend it and so put it on the side bar.

The weakest parts are actually those in which he takes pains to defend Chávez, as such parts seem more forced. Jones equates endless talking on radio and TV with governmental “transparency,” early in the book long passages come from books of Chávez discussions, so that his ideological development comes out as purity personified, he is compared to George Washington, etc. This actually gets in the way of an otherwise very compelling story of a man who (unlike his heroes Fidel Castro and Che Guevara, or even Simón Bolívar himself) grew up in poverty and, through the forces of conviction, personality, and unbelievable energy, catapulted himself onto a national stage to fight against a corrupt socio-economic system.

The best narrative parts are the 1992 coup attempts and the 2002 coup, which read like a thriller. Jones brings to life the passions of both sides and does not shy away from discussing the missteps Chávez makes. He also discusses the many allies of Chávez who ultimately opposed him, though I think this deserves more directed attention to see what patterns emerge regarding Chávez’s disputes over power, ideology, and personality.

The book makes a strong argument for bias in the U.S. media against Chávez, yet I would guess about 75% of the citations come from that same media (Jones himself is a reporter). There is, in fact, very little from Venezuelan media, either pro or anti-Chávez. So you can, it seems, write a book that casts Chávez in a largely positive light by using newspapers in the United States.

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Immigration and the presidential race

Felipe Calderón has called on the presidential candidates in the U.S. to stop using immigrants as “symbolic hostages” (a very nice phrase).

"I am especially concerned at the growing harassment and in recent days the persecution of Mexicans in the US," Mr Calderon said.

"It is my duty to call respectfully but firmly on the candidates of the political parties in the US to stop taking Mexicans as symbolic hostages in their speeches and
strategies."

I like the more active role both Fox and Calderón have been taking, which is right on target and surely plays well at home. The Mexican government can be rightly criticized for ignoring the conditions that prompt emigration in the first place, but at least it is reacting publicly more often to the scapegoating of immigrants.

As we get closer to the primaries, Republicans are becoming ever more restrictionist and hardline, and I wonder whether that will continue once a candidate is chosen. Will a Republican run in part on the issue, since there is little else to run on, or tack back to the more moderate center?

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LASA 2009

I’ve been pondering LASA 2009, and I think it would be cool to do something on blogs that relate to Latin America. Maybe just even a workshop, which means focused discussion but not necessarily article-length papers (though I also think papers would be interesting, perhaps for the LASA Forum or maybe even more in depth).

I think there would be an interested audience, and this would be the sort of thing that could generate interest since to my knowledge it has not been done before at LASA. There are all sorts of interesting angles to take and questions to pose.

Is anyone interested in this sort of endeavor and planning to attend the next LASA? If so, let me know via comment or email (gbweeks@uncc.edu).

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More on Chile

Yesterday’s post on Chile brought up two questions. First, why does the Chilean government seem particularly huffy about the Banco del Sur? Second, what effect will the Chávez-King Juan Carlos spat have on the Bachelet administration?

I would suggest that both have a common thread: Foreign Minister Alejandro Foxley. He is certainly more antagonistic toward Chávez than Bachelet, and is now being criticized within the Concertación for openly expressing “solidarity” with the King, Prime Minister Zapatero and former Prime Minister Aznar. (Ironically, the Venezuelan Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs has said Foxley should have more “dignified dialogue”).

I don’t have a good sense of the current dynamics within Bachelet’s cabinet, but it is reasonable to hypothesize that Foxley is a key source of the criticism of the bank. Will this hurt Bachelet? Perhaps indirectly, as a yet another sign that her cabinets (already shuffled twice) are not cohesive and that she lacks control. Let’s wait and see whether Bachelet herself responds.

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Bank of the South and Chile

The Chilean government announced it would put $50 million into the Corporación Andina de Fomento (CAF) and would not participate in the Banco del Sur. The Bachelet administration says it is interested in funding existing institutions that work and not create new ones there are more “uncertain.”

That has always been the position of the Bachelet administration, but it’s interesting that this gesture is being made just shortly before the bank officially opens (on December 5). It could be coincidence, since it occurred during the Iberoamerican Summit, but the bank seems always to have particularly annoyed the Chilean government.

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Doing business with Cuba

Cuba just had a trade fair, and a lot of U.S. farmers and elected officials—many of them Republicans--attended. I’ve written about this a number of times before, but it’s worth repeating.

Just weeks after President Bush delivered an address calling on the world to isolate Cuba, officials from Minnesota, Alabama and Ohio — and more than 100 American businesses — were working the giant Havana International Fair, trying to secure part of the $1.6 billion the Cuban government spends each year to import sugar, wheat, livestock, poultry and beans, among other staples.

This particular NYT piece provides a very good overview of U.S. trade policy and the provisions for cash-only transactions with Cuba (which are difficult but doable). I am glad the U.S. media is covering this sort of thing. If you get outside Florida, it’s clear that current Cuba policy has almost no support.

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Fujimori's posse

Alberto Fujimori remains amazingly popular in Japan, primarily for his resolution of the Japanese Embassy hostage crisis in 1996-1997. Now a number of Japanese politicians, including 73 members of the lower House (which means 15% of its total!) have created a group called the “Multiparty Assistance League for a Just Judgment of Alberto Fujimori” (that is my literal translation—I’m sure it can be made to sound nicer).

It’s not clear exactly what they plan to do. However, just as in the saga about Fujimori running for office in Japan earlier this year, Fujimori’s supporters cite only the hostage issue, and pointedly ignore the corruption, human rights abuses, extortion, etc. because they didn’t occur in Japan.

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Free Trade with Colombia

The Washington Post is on a roll. First, there was the editorial about how only leftists criticize Plan Colombia and so we ought to duplicate it in Mexico. Now the editors call for passage of the U.S.-Colombia FTA. Unlike the Bush administration, which says we need to pass it or Hugo Chávez will get a PR boost, the WaPo argues that it’s OK if thousands of people are killed, just as long as they represent a small percentage of the total dead.

Among the tens of thousands of people killed in Colombia since 1991, 2,245 were labor union members, according to the country's National Labor College, known by its Spanish initials, ENS. (Of these victims, about 500 were union "leaders.") This sounds like a lot of people -- and it is, in the sense that even one murder is too many. Lately, though, labor union members have been less likely to be murdered than other Colombians. In 2006, union members made up 4.8 percent of the labor force, or just under 2 percent of the total population, of 43.5 million, according to ENS. Yet of the 17,206 murder victims in Colombia that year, only 70 -- or 0.4 percent -- were union members.

It ends by saying let’s not let “cold-case” files ruin a trade agreement. So sure, lots of them die, but hey, they’re a drop in the murder bucket! If I were a wavering member of Congress, I’d need a lot more than this to convince me.

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U.S.-Cuban relations

In the most recent issue of Military Review, Trudi Morales (a political science professor at the University of Central Florida) offers an unflinching look at U.S.-Cuban relations.

U.S. policymakers have insisted on imposing their own interests, agendas, models, and formulas on Latin America—often against the wishes of most of the peoples in the region. At the same time that U.S. leaders insist on internal democratization, they maintain an undemocratic, hegemonic control over the region and demand that it do things “our” way (p. 95).

She offers a number of very sensible policy prescriptions and alternatives. For example:

A related short-term objective includes the unconditional end of the embargo, without a quid pro quo. Congress should also lift the ban on travel and restrictions on trade. Today the blockade and Helms-Burton are not as effective, and even at its peak, the embargo, to paraphrase another Cuba-watcher, served to “bend them but not break them.” Supporters of the embargo argue that it is the only leverage we have. That argument merely reveals the meager influence U.S. policy has over the Cuban regime. It is time to honestly recognize that the embargo has failed to achieve either its central goal, regime change, or its secondary goal, isolating Cuba. And, although it has hurt Castro’s regime, it has also hurt innocent Cuban citizens and American interests. Removing Cuba from the State Department’s List of Terrorist States is another immediate action that can support an orderly, peaceful transition in Cuba—and lend greater credibility to the list (p. 99).

I find it heartening that the U.S. Army chose to publish this type of article, since it so clearly contradicts the administration’s policy preferences. We need more debate like this at all levels of government.

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Setting a record number of drug records

About a week ago, Steven Taylor noted another “record” drug seizure in Mexico, and that everything is somehow a new record. I thought of that today as I read about the White House drug czar claiming success, noting a “record eradication campaign.” Commenting on his post, I wrote that it woud be really interesting to do an analysis of the word “record” with regard to drug policy in Latin America.

The constant talk about records bugs me. It’s so obviously bogus. If we are setting records all the time, then why has so little been accomplished? In addition, my hypothesis (to be tested someday when I have time to gather data) is that the word “record” intensifies just before an administration requests more funding for drug initiatives. Do you want to fight drug trafficking? Well, we’ve been setting records so how can you possibly be against [insert drug program here]?

Lo and behold, all this talk of records is accompanied by the following Washington Post editorial, which tells us we need to fund Plan Mexico because only leftists fail to see how successful the Colombia drug war has been.

The package nevertheless will probably become a target for leftists in Mexico and the United States who reflexively oppose any military or security collaboration between the two countries. The Mexican press is calling the aid program "Plan Mexico," after Plan Colombia, the U.S. aid program that has been a continual target for the left despite its clear success in helping the Colombian government beat back drug traffickers, leftist guerrillas and right-wing insurgents.

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Padres

I haven’t posted about baseball in over a month, after this game laid me to waste. It took a while to recover.

We re-signed Greg Maddux, which is a good move. He still has at least one more decent year in him. I should note, however, that I’d make a terrible GM because I just like some players, which clouds my judgment. (I’d probably sign Sammy Sosa if he just lowered his price a bit).

I also can’t resist commenting on the Mike Cameron saga. First, he gets nailed for drugs. Then he says he’s played drunk. Does he mean still woozy from the night before or actually drunk? The thing is, I can’t imagine hitting a fastball while drunk (not that I could hit a fastball while sober either). With regard to the drugs, I agree with Geoff Young that this quote from Victor Conte (the BALCO guy) is perfect:

This isn’t drug testing, this is IQ testing. All you have to do is look at the list and find one of the 30 that’s not on the list and use that. This guy (Cameron) didn’t fail a drug test. He failed an IQ test.

Now we just await the Cy Young announcement, and I would be shocked if it wasn’t Jake Peavy. After that 163rd game, however, which could’ve been his 20th win and instead was a disaster, the Cy Young is not quite as exciting.

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Raúl Baduel

Former Defense Minister (and retired general) Raúl Baduel, who played a key role in bringing Chávez back to power in 2002, came out against the constitutional reforms, calling them the equivalent of a coup (and consequently has been labeled a traitor by Chávez).

This is major news, but there is something even more interesting—he just started a blog. As you might guess, the comments are intense.

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U.S. policy and Hugo Chávez

If you’d like another glimpse at the ways in which many in the U.S. government view Hugo Chávez, check out this interview with Connie Mack (R-FLA). The highlights:

--the U.S. needs “more severe policies” toward Venezuela in the near future

--“rogue nations” and “terrorists” are using Venezuela as a “conduit” for “dangerous enterprises”

--although Chávez is elected, the election is not legitimate: "I don't think you can make the same argument now that he has been legitimately elected."

--the way to get support from other countries is to “lock in” free trade agreements

--"The time is ripe for the United States to grow alliances and to put the squeeze on Chavez"

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Primera Revista Latinoamericana de Libros

I received a copy of the Primera Revista Latinoamericana de Libros and thought I would pass along the link for anyone interested. It is published in NYC but is entirely in Spanish. It has some impressively detailed book reviews, though it did serve to remind me how many books I'd like to read and how little time I have to do so.

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Guatemala election

Álvaro Colom seems to have won the runoff presidential election in Guatemala, winning 19 of 22 departments (but not Guatemala City, where Otto Pérez Molina’s hardline rhetoric and military intelligence past attracted more voters). Colom’s party, however, has only 48 of 158 seats in the legislature.

Turnout appears to have been light, perhaps reflecting concern about violence (which seems not have been a problem for the runoff) or perhaps the idea that neither would challenge the status quo to any significant degree?

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Civilians and defense in Latin America

David Pion-Berlin and Harold A. Trinkunas, “Attention Deficits: Why Politicians Ignore Defense Policy in Latin America.” Latin American Research Review 42,3 (2007) 76-100.

Abstract: Interest in defense issues among Latin American politicians has faded with the advent of widespread democratization in the region and the retreat of the armed forces to their barracks. Defense policy is rarely subject to the same level of public scrutiny and debate as other major policy issues faced by the region, such as health, education, and public safety. This is puzzling because by ignoring defense policy, civilian leaders in the region risk ceding authority to their militaries, allowing them a degree of self-management and undermining the consolidation of democratic civilian control of the armed forces. This article explains civilian politicians' inattention to defense as a function of three factors: a historical path that has produced armed forces with limited capabilities that are more often a threat to their own governments than their neighbors; a relatively benign international threat environment in Latin America that makes neglect of defense policy a low-risk proposition; and the low importance that voters assign to the provision of the national defense as either a public or a private good. Under these circumstances, it is rational for most civilian politicians to ignore defense policy and focus their attention instead on coup avoidance.

I had briefly mentioned their analysis last year in its previous incarnation as a LASA paper. It addresses something that any student of civil-military relations figures out very quickly—interest about defense in Latin America is astonishingly low, and has always been that way. Civilians are generally content to let the armed forces figure things out for themselves. I use this argument as part of an analysis about the military and intelligence services in an article in Third World Quarterly coming out next year.

They cite Chile as an example where legislators and others have made a more concerted effort to become knowledgeable about defense. However, interested civilians and officers in Chile still routinely evince frustration at the general lack of attention—further, even though in the past President Bachelet made a point of taking courses (and even getting a degree) on defense, she says almost nothing about the issue and still appoints Defense Ministers with no background on it (though, to be fair, at least the administration is gradually trying to modernize the ministry itself).

Pion-Berlin and Trinkunas come to the following unfortunate conclusion, with which I agree:

Should these conditions remain unaltered, it is unlikely civilian politicians will "discover" defense planning as a worthy policy goal any time soon. To the extent that this remains true, it may lead to a set of undesirable outcomes. If civilian leaders don't care about defense, they will not oversee efforts to reform military practices and doctrines. Absent civilian prodding, militaries—which are inherently conservative institutions—will fail to adapt their behavior and ideas to changing circumstances. The less concern civilian leaders show for defense, the more the military will resort to self-management, which in turn could breed greater levels of autonomy and pose problems for civilian control (p. 95).

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Term limits (again)

Executive power and term limits have been quite the recent theme. Now Alvaro Uribe has stepped into the mix, suggesting he might like to change the constitution (again) to allow for another re-election in case there is some sort of catastrophe and his coalition can’t unite around a candidate. This comes just after the Alternative Democratic Pole’s Samuel Moreno won Bogotá’s mayoral election, which puts him (or at least his party) in a better position for the 2010 presidential election.

So who will be next on the “I don’t want to step down as president so let’s amend the constitution” train? It's all the rage.

Just after posting, I see Miguel has addressed the same thing.

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Cuban cambio

At first glance, it seems like a straightforward story—young Cuban dissidents wear a rubber Lance Armstrong-type bracelet with the word “Cambio” (change) on it and then get arrested.

But wait, most kids wearing them did so for fashion reasons and have no interest in politics.

''Some people wear the AIDS ones which are yellow,'' González said. 'These are white, but in the schools a lot of kids wear it backwards, so you can't see the word `change.' For a lot of kids, it's nothing but a distraction. It doesn't matter to them if it says change or anything else.''

In other words, they aren’t “dissidents” at all, though the Cuban government rounded them up anyway for “social dangerousness.” So it is dangerous to be an unwitting dissident.

Then the story takes another, much weirder turn, as we discover that Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutiérrez wears his bracelet all the time, including in bed. No, I did not make that up.

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Paraguay

In a classically corrupt Colorado Party move, the Paraguayan Supreme Court released Lino Oviedo (who was on parole) on a technicality, just coincidentally a few hours before the deadline to apply for a presidential run.

Under Paraguayan law, all candidates must be registered to vote and those serving prison sentences cannot register. The court decision came out shortly before Tuesday's midnight registration deadline, and Oviedo rushed to get on the voter rolls.

''It's such a visible and vulgar manipulation of justice on the part of President Nicanor Duarte Frutos,'' said Paraguayan political columnist Alfredo Boccia Paz. ``You'd have to be pathologically naive not to see the Colorado hand behind this.''

As Boz notes, this is an effort to split the opposition vote to keep the Colorado Party in power. I would only partially agree with him that Oviedo is a threat to “Paraguayan democracy,” as there is no such thing. We might say his political presence is a threat to the possibility of moving in a democratic direction.

In a recent academic article, Paul Sondrol analyzes Paraguay in the context of being a semi-authoritarian regime, and puts it as follows:

The evolving socio-political equation includes widespread disenchantment with a weak economy, a political class newfangled in the give and take inherent in a liberalized environment, and enduring traits reflecting the deepest authoritarian tradition in Latin America, mirrored in a narrow, cynical view of democracy by well-established political elites (p. 51).

…

An axiom attributed to Stroessner himself sums up the nefarious, semi-authoritarian philosophy: “It is necessary to foment criminality, for criminality produces complicity and complicity produces loyalty (p. 58).

That pretty much sums it up.

Paul Sondrol, “Paraguay: A Semi-Authoritarian Regime?” Armed Forces & Society, Vol. 34, No. 1 (2007): 46-66.

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