Tuesday, March 03, 2009

Reading Cuba tea leaves

I've been reading news stories about Raúl Castro's cabinet shake-up, and it became astonishingly clear that we have no clue what they signify. I have seen quite a platitudinous collection of quotes, vague and loaded with qualifiers. It would have been almost as useful for a reporter to use a Magic 8-Ball: "Reply hazy, try again." Basically we get the idea that Raúl is putting in people closer to him in order to do...something.

It really says something about the airtight nature of the Cuban government that after all these years, all these decades, we just don't know what's going on. We are almost always at least one step behind the Castros.


Russell 8:39 PM  

I wonder if sometimes people over-interpret these things. Of course Raul's plans for shaping government and the economy are part of it, but I also wonder if some cases might have to do with such things as the compatibility of personalities. Perhaps this (pure) conjecture is the result of the degree to which my time here has been about small-scale politics, something I'll try blog about while I'm here.

Justin Delacour 2:03 PM  

We are almost always at least one step behind the Castros.

Well, that's precisely the idea. The Cuban leadership will always want the foreign policy establishment of a hostile great power to be one step behind.

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