Friday, March 09, 2012

Coalitions in Chile

Via Twitter Patricio Navia has this graph on his website on identification with the Concertación versus Alianza.



Plenty of fun conclusions:

--Obviously, support for the Concertación has been dropping, but people are becoming ni-nis rather than moving to the Alianza

--The Concertación can't seem to capitalize politically on Piñera's problems (unless that little bounce at the end keeps going upward)

--The Alianza seems to be at a ceiling. It's a bit flexible at any given moment but over time 20% support seems to be about it

--Predictions of the Concertación's demise will continue, and get louder once electoral reform is underway

--Having its own president in power seems to have no effect on coalition approval, though it hasn't been long so it's reasonable to ask what the Alianza's floor might be if Piñera remains so unpopular

1 comments:

Vicente Duque 12:28 PM  
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