Out of Captivity

I read Out of Captivity: Surviving 1,967 Days in the Colombian Jungle, the story of three contractors (Marc Gonsalves, Keith Stansell, and Tom Howes) working in Colombia for Northrop Grunman. Their small plane crashed in 2003 and they were taken hostage by the FARC. They were rescued in 2008 in an ingenious hoax the Colombian government put together.

This is a really interesting book. The strength the hostages (both the Americans and the Colombians, and many of the latter were in captivity much longer) showed is inspiring. Surviving years and years of abuse is amazing. Their strength is admirable. Yet while reading the book, I tended not to like the three much, even while feeling horrible for their plight.

And that plight is disgusting. Their account of life with the FARC is sickening. Being chained by the neck, deprived of food, enduring jungle diseases, and facing all sorts of abuse became commonplace for over five years. That is hard to contemplate. The details themselves are fascinating and provide a lot of into insight into how the guerrillas live daily.

For better or worse, having one author for three people means their voices are mostly indistinguishable, and they jumble together. They all talk military slang--for example, they live in a "hooch," not a hut or tent, and they are helos, birds, friendlies, references to "Nam," etc. And all are entirely ignorant of Colombian politics. They derisively label Colombian hostages as "politicals" if they were politicians, as if their own jobs had no political significance. In their eyes, they were there for a job, and it was apolitical. They also know nothing of South American politics, labeling both Hugo Chávez and Ricardo Lagos as "far left of center" (p. 85).

They seemed to feel they didn't need to know much: "I was an American, and I was going to act like an American no matter where in the world I was, and that was that" (p. 183). Ego in general is very much in evidence. It begins right away, as Marc notes that when going to work in the very early morning, they all just ignore stoplights and compete to see who can arrive first. Or as Keith put it, "I could be perceived as being the alpha male. That was a position I enjoyed" (p. 185).

Ultimately, the book is a sobering reminder that the FARC is both vicious and well-equipped to continue living in the deep jungle, while the so-called war against drugs (the three men were in a Cessna looking for coca fields) is largely failing. And many hostages remain.

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Hedging bets in Honduras

When asked point blank who he considers to be the Honduran president, National Party candidate Porfirio Lobo refused to answer, saying he called them both by their name to avoid getting tangled up in the situation: “yo a los dos llamo por su nombre para no meterme a rollos, a enredos." The pro-coup paper La Prensa summed it up as "Porfirio Lobo does not know who is president."

Now THAT is a politician. Too bad the reporter did not ask him what the definition of "is" is.

Days since the coup: 90
Days until the scheduled presidential election: 64

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Classic Micheletti

Roberto Micheletti says the OAS can send a commission to Honduras. But not until next week. The more things change, the more they stay the same. I have lost track of the number of times the coup government has agreed to something, but not until later in the week, next week, or the like. Two months to go until the presidential election, and he is once again betting he can wait it out.

The AP article also has a great quote in the context of the positions of the presidential candidates: "It's not easy campaigning in the aftermath of a coup."

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Honduran dialogue

News about Honduras is basically abuzz about "dialogue." According to La Prensa, Roberto Micheletti has apparently accepted an OAS mission, at the urging of Jimmy Carter. That came after Mel Zelaya announced that Micheletti's own conditions for "dialogue" were so one-sided as to be unacceptable.

Dialogue is indeed positive, but only to a point. If the dialogue does not become negotiation, then it is largely pointless because it is only two sides talking at one another.

A lot depends on Hondurans themselves. If protests dwindle and most people go back to their daily routines, then the crisis might easily revert to its previous situation of ticking off the days until the election. Just as before, there is little overt international pressure on the coup government, or at least not enough to change its stance.

Days since the coup: 89
Days until the scheduled presidential election: 65

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Micheletti's negotiations

From CNN: Roberto Micheletti says that he is willing to have a dialogue anywhere with Mel Zelaya. But that he would also have him arrested. Just that little hitch.

Micheletti's willingness to engage Zelaya seemed to be a reversal of his position. On Tuesday, he had said in an interview with local network Televicentro that Zelaya's sudden appearance would not revive negotiations to have him return to power.

Actually, no. The position is the same. Micheletti is willing to talk, but not to negotiate. He has often said he will discuss the San José Accord as long as he does not have to accept any of it.

And, by the way, when the power went out in the Brazilian embassy, Zelaya supporters did it themselves.

Despite local reports citing police officials that authorities turned off the power to the embassy and surrounding area ostensibly to discourage looting, Micheletti said that a congregation of pro-Zelaya protesters at the embassy short-circuited the power themselves.

Remarkably, they also threw tear gas at themselves and beat themselves with batons.

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WSJ on Honduras

The Wall Street Journal has an editorial about the Honduran crisis, blaming the Obama administration for its handling of the situation. That is to be expected from the WSJ editorial board, but it is frustrating to see the same lies (it is too late, I think, to call them misrepresentations, misstatements, errors, or the like because the facts are so well known).

The essential argument for those who support Roberto Micheletti is that Mel Zelaya's ouster was entirely constitutional. So the editorial includes the following:

Mr. Zelaya was deposed and deported this summer after he agitated street protests to support a rewrite of the Honduran constitution so he could serve a second term.

We've gone over this a hundred times, and the best argument anyone can make is that "everyone knows" Zelaya would try for a second term, which is then taken as the same as evidence. But term limits were never mentioned in the referendum, and even the Supreme Court largely avoided the issue in its own supporting documents.

But this one is even better:

To avoid violence the Honduran military escorted Mr. Zelaya out of the country. In other words, his removal from office was legal and constitutional, though his ejection from the country gave the false appearance of an old-fashioned Latin American coup.

Escorted! What an odd word to choose. In legal terms, this is otherwise known as "forced into exile in violation of the constitution by a military acting according to its own whims without regard for the law." That is a coup.

I understand very well the anti-Zelaya arguments. But the lying is just sad.

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Freedom of the press

Glancing through La Prensa, a pro-coup newspaper, I laughed to myself as I read this story. The curfew is paralyzing the country, the police made sure that La Prensa was distributed. Hondurans were therefore able to read about what a great job the police are doing in calmly combating the crazed Zelaya terrorists.

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The Honduran stand-off

The crisis in Honduras is evolving constantly, but now appears to be in a basic stand-off. The military and police forcibly cleared the area around the Brazilian embassy and cut off its power. Soldiers patrol the neighboring rooftops, and at times have launched tear gas into the embassy.

The airports are closed, which conveniently prevents any would-be negotiator (such as José Miguel Insulza) from arriving in the country. And pro-Zelaya media is being harassed.

This sort of situation seems unlikely to last long. I've been getting questions in class as well as via email about whether the Honduran police and/or military would storm the embassy. I would be surprised if that happened, though this crisis has been very unpredictable. Violating an embassy is very serious, and would contradict the coup government's message of peace and reconciliation. But bad decisions sometimes get made in the heat of the moment.

On the other hand, Brazil does not really want Zelaya there long. This is a major imposition for the Brazilians, and they felt compelled to agree less than an hour before he arrived. They do not want to shut down their embassy so that he can just hunker down for a lengthy period of time. Zelaya will want to be there just long enough to force dialogue with Roberto Micheletti.

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Quote of the day: Honduras

"The State of Honduras is committed to respect the rights of Mr. Zelaya to due process."

--Roberto Micheletti, head of a government that refused to allow Zelaya a trial and instead illegally exiled him.

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Where's Zelaya?

Look, this is just weird.

Mel Zelaya says he is in Tegucigalpa, but won't say where. His supporters are at the UN building there because a "senior Zelaya aide" says he was, but the UN says he isn't there. Roberto Micheletti says Zelaya is in a hotel in Nicaragua. The State Department says he is indeed somewhere in Honduras. Another rumor is that he is in the Brazilian embassy.

If he is indeed in Honduras, it is hard to imagine him hiding too long, and indeed it would not be very presidential. What happens when he goes public is impossible to predict. The coup government has said repeatedly that it will arrest him, but that will not be easy. Hopefully there will be some sort of dialogue, though I cannot think of any point of agreement.

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CRS report on U.S.-Honduran relations

The Congressional Research Service updated its report on Honduras and it provides a clear summary of the crisis. Interestingly, Mary Anastasia O'Grady uses it to claim that the Obama administration lacks "legal basis" for calling it a coup. Here is the relevant part of the report on that issue:

Roberto Micheletti maintains that he is the legitimate president of Honduras, and that Zelaya’s removal was not a military coup. Indeed, Micheletti refers to the ouster as a “constitutional substitution,” despite the acknowledgement of the Honduran army’s top lawyer that the military likely broke the law by forcibly sending Zelaya into exile. Those involved in the removal maintain that their methods were necessary to avoid chaos and bloodshed. Micheletti has named a new cabinet, announced a preliminary plan of governance, and assured the public that general elections will be held in November 2009, as previously planned. The de facto president has also received strong support from some sectors of Honduran society, with thousands of people marching in support of Zelaya’s removal. A poll taken in the days after the ouster found that 46% of Hondurans opposed the military removal of Zelaya while 41% thought it was justified.

Despite Micheletti’s declarations that the country continues to function democratically, Honduran society generally has been under strict control since Zelaya’s removal. Following the ouster, a curfew was put in place, security forces have patrolled the streets, and a number of local an international television and radio stations have been shut down or intimidated. Additionally, members of Zelaya’s Administration, some members of the press, and at least one Congressional deputy have been detained or forced to go into hiding. Crowds of thousands of protesters have been dispersed—sometimes violently, and on July 1, the Honduran National Congress approved a decree suspending a number of constitutional rights. The decree allows security forces to enter private homes without a warrant, allows the detention of persons for 24 hours without charges, and suspends the rights of free association and free movement during curfew hours. While the curfew was lifted on July 12, it was reinstated on July 15, and remains in place in some parts of the country. Likewise, there continue to be reports of media censorship and political repression.

I should point out that since the Honduran constitution forbids forced exile, it is not just "likely" that the Honduran military broke the law.

Days since the coup: 85
Days until the scheduled presidential election: 69

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Russia and Cuba

In February, I noted that President Obama had not changed U.S. policy regarding Georgia or about Ukraine or Georgia joining NATO, so Russia was still interested in maintaining a Latin America presence in response. However, I speculated that since the missile shield policy would likely change, that might be enough to reduce Russia's military connections to the region.

That may well be wrong, as a senior Russian military officer says they will modernize Cuba's military, and warships may be on the way for a visit.

``Although maintaining a military presence in Latin America has logistical and financial problems for Russia, it will still force the United States to address the Russian presence in its backyard,'' wrote Stratfor, a private geopolitical analysis firm based in Austin, Texas.

This is a very important point. The cost for Russia is nontrivial, and I doubt Cuba has much to spend on Russian weapons to counteract that cost to any significant degree. But obviously the announced change in missile shield policy was not enough.

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Micheletti on TV

What do you do if you're a president who took power as the result of a coup and you want to sway public opinion in the U.S., but your visa has been revoked? Put on a flowery shirt, go on Fox News and say this is a "happy country."

He is interviewed by Greta Van Susteren, who admits she does not know Honduran law or the constitution, but that as she understands it, the June 28 vote was supposed to give Mel Zelaya a second term. For that and other falsehoods, just watch the big guy in the loud shirt.

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Stereotypes and drugs

Negative stereotypes about people of Latin American descent--especially Mexicans--are deeply embedded in the debate over immigration, and they are as well in the fight against drugs.

The U.S. Forest Service has apologized for suggesting that campers who eat tortillas, drink Tecate beer and play Spanish music may be armed marijuana growers, calling it "regrettable" and "insensitive."

This is stupid on so many levels, and is a reminder of the remarkable degree of ignorance out there. But even if you arrested a lot of people who had those characteristics, correlation is not causation.

I also wondered whether they did not suspect campers who drank Dos Equis.

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Arms purchases in Latin America

I am glad a Latin American president is talking about this. From the joint press conference with Uruguayan President Tabaré Vázquez and Secretary Clinton:

PRESIDENT VAZQUEZ: (Via interpreter) With respect to the arms race, not only is our country worried, but we have already expressed time and again our position against an arms race. We believe that it is quite inconvenient to the region to devote such significant economic resources toward purchasing arms. And – but it’s a fact, and we can’t deny it, that the countries are buying weapons.

And to make things worse, our region is the region that has the worst distribution of wealth. So with – under those conditions, it is still worse to be devoting those resources to weapons. South America has millions of people living in poverty, and there are thousands of children that die across Latin America and South America because of child diarrhea or diseases that could be prevented.

So because of all these reasons, all that should lead the governments of South America to decide to devote more money to promote health, to promote education and education to prevent diseases; to spend that money, instead of spending it in weapons, spending it in housing, good housing for our people, and to further deepen investment, especially in the field of education.

So we should devote our energies and resources to fight against the real scourges of our societies, that are drug – such as drug trafficking and terrorism. That would be certainly a much better use of our resources.

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Honduran presidential candidates

Four of the six Honduran presidential candidates are in Costa Rica to meet with Oscar Arias. His goal is to convince them to pressure Roberto Micheletti into accepting the San José Accord, and to reiterate that the winner will not be recognized internationally. The candidates are Elvin Santos (Liberal Party), Porfirio Lobo Sosa (National Party), Felícito Avila (Christian Democrats), and Bernard Martínez (Innovation and Unity).

According to La Prensa, the four candidates have met and agreed they will come with the unified position that the coup was constitutional and the Honduran people want the elections to move forward.

Ultimately, Arias will have to explain precisely what he hopes the candidates will do. Otherwise this exercise will consist of vague pressure that will either have no impact or make them more resentful. It is certain that Micheletti and others have been telling them not to worry, because after the elections all the sanctions will end no matter what people say.

Days since the coup: 80
Days until the scheduled presidential election: 74

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Mexico and drug law

The New York Times offered five people (such as Jorge Castañeda) the opportunity to comment on the recent changes in Mexico regarding decriminalization of small amounts of drugs. Once you winnow out the platitudes, the responses seem to converge on certain issues:

First, the law will have little or no impact on the broader drug war or violence.

Second, it may have an impact on reducing police corruption, which usually required a bribe to avoid being hauled in for possession.

Third, it will not lure more Americans to Mexico to take drugs.

What the authors were not asked to do, and should have been, was to discuss whether the reforms taking place in Mexico and Argentina mark a real shift in thinking across Latin America, or will likely remain isolated cases. If the former, then eventually it could (could, not would) influence policy making in the United States. Tony Payan (from UTEP) mentions the issue briefly, but it would have been interesting to probe in more detail.

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Honduras and Human Rights Council

The UN Human Rights Council couldn't start on time because the Honduran representative (who was originally named by Mel Zelaya but now is loyal to Roberto Micheletti) wasn't allowed in as an observer. Naturally, he blamed it on Hugo Chávez.

Rumor has it that he also wished to introduce a measure defining "pajama kidnapping" as "a fun filled vacation to Costa Rica."

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Undocumented immigrants and community college in NC

My op-ed on undocumented immigrants and community college was just published in the News & Observer.

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More visas

The Obama administration has always been applying incremental and gradual (even glacial) pressure on the Honduran coup government. The latest is taking away the diplomatic and tourist visas of 17 coup government officials, including Robert Micheletti. He was miffed:

He complained that the letter addressed him “not as the president of Honduras” but as speaker of Congress, his position before elected head of state Mel Zelaya was dragged from the presidential palace on June 28 and flown to Costa Rica.

Pobrecito!

An important question is whether these and other measures will hold after the November presidential election. Talking to the press, Micheletti repeated for the Nth time that he would not accept the San José Accord, and therefore there is no more negotiation. Thus, for the Nth time he demonstrates his belief that Honduras can make it to November, at which point the pressure will subside.

And if my counting is correct, then the Honduran crisis is at the halfway point between the coup and the election.

Days since the coup: 77
Days until the scheduled presidential election: 77

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Fidel's fashion

Given all his public appearances, Fidel Castro once again appears not to be deceased. Analysts have spent decades trying to track his health. Now they're going on step further, by analyzing his clothes to determine whether he might return to power. Seriously. With phrases like "tropical business casual."

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Who coups?

The left blames the U.S. for Mel Zelaya's overthrow, and now Roberto Micheletti himself felt the need to deny that the U.S. is going to overthrow him. Apparently there are rumors of U.S. military planes flying around. He even went so far as to say that if there was an invasion, "I would be the first to know." Good for him! As ms at Honduras Coup 2009 points out, if this was a rumor started by the opposition, it was quite effective.

All rumors of U.S. involvement presuppose that the Obama administration cares much about Honduras. It doesn't. The gradual sanctions show that the administration really wants this crisis to solve itself without its involvement.

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Immigration round table

I was invited to participate in a round table on comprehensive immigration reform today, with the Assistant Secretary of Homeland Security for U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, John Morton. The Obama administration will not pursue reform until next year, but is organizing these meetings across the country to get input on four main issues:

1. Work site protection and workplace enforcement
2. How to address the millions of undocumented immigrants already in the country
3. What an effective enforcement regime would look like
4. How do we decide who gets to come in a future migrant flow?

It was a diverse group, including the mayor, sheriffs from around the region, a state legislator, immigration lawyers, and members of advocacy groups. In general, I was heartened by Secretary Morton's clear interest in reform, as he was active in the failed effort to pass legislation in 2006-2007. The idea is to learn how to get it done right, which obviously is a daunting task. But these types of events demonstrate the commitment to learning more. (Of course, this does not tell us what will be feasible politically!).

As an academic, it is also nice to have the chance to summarize your own research conclusions (for me, it was political demography, which is the central theme of my book) to a high-level policy maker.

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Quote of the day: Cuba

"We Cubans are crazy for waiting. If there's no line in Cuba it's because the place is closed."

--Cuban university student waiting to use the Cuban intranet.

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Elections in Honduras

The Obama administration is being criticized for saying that it will not recognize the Honduran presidential election if there is no political settlement first (see, for example, Elliott Abrams as representative). The basic argument is that elections offer a way out of the crisis, and life can go back to normal. I have a few thoughts on this.

First, if the administration wants a negotiated settlement, then it has to make sure that multilateral leverage succeeds in convincing the coup government to agree. The worst case scenario is for the administration to talk tough, then ultimately just flounder until the election.

Second, it is true that many legitimate elections have been held under authoritarian conditions. However, in those cases (such as Chile) the primary political actors had all agreed on their legitimacy. So Honduras is not a good comparison in that regard.

Third, simply accepting the elections would be the equivalent of accepting the coup. The essential questions surrounding Zelaya's ouster--illegal actions by the military in particular--would go unexamined. The signal would be that coups are fine as long as you eventually hold elections. In other words, the "poder moderador" model would hold.

Days since the coup: 73
Days until the scheduled presidential election: 81

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Hispanic Heritage Month

Hispanic Heritage Month is September 15-October 15. Reuters put together a very nice compilation of facts based on Census data. I highly recommend taking a look.

I've been doing a lot of work on Latino immigration to the U.S. South, so the following are factoids that particularly interest me and may well be a surprise to some people:

16
The number of states with at least a half-million Hispanic residents --
Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Massachusetts,
Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Texas,
Virginia and Washington.
Source: Population estimates
http://www.census.gov/Press-Release/www/releases/archives/population/013734.html

The Carolinas
The states with the highest percentage increases in Hispanic population
between July 1, 2007, and July 1, 2008. South Carolina's increase was 7.7
percent and North Carolina's was 7.4 percent.
Source: Population estimates
http://www.census.gov/Press-Release/www/releases/archives/population/013734.html

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Uribe's third term

I've written many posts on the efforts to give Alvaro Uribe a third term. Although there has been a lot in the news recently, I didn't have much to add (for recent stuff see Steven Taylor). Andres Oppenheimer, however, adds a new angle. If Uribe gets it, then he will find it even more difficult to work with the U.S. Congress.

Another well-placed congressional source told me that a third Uribe term ``is going to make our ability to make progress on the U.S.-Colombia free-trade agreement -- and broader funding on [the U.S. anti-narcotics aid] Plan Colombia -- difficult. Many Democrats see Uribe as a human-rights violator who is turning into something like a little king.''

I'm not sure whether a third term would really put the kibosh on a free trade agreement, but there is no doubt that the FTA faces an uphill battle and so every vote counts. Uribe's quest for power will overshadow (and possibly damage) his policy goals.

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Samuel Logan's This Is For The Mara Salvatrucha

I read This Is For The Mara Salvatrucha by Samuel Logan, who blogs at Security in Latin America. I was quickly sucked into the story of Brenda Paz, a teenager originally from Honduras who became involved with the MS-13. The book begins in Texas, but for the most part the events are in northern Virginia. Being present at a murder launches a sequence of events that eventually leads Brenda to make an effort to cooperate with police and leave the gang. The narrative moves quickly and smoothly, and especially since I did not know the outcome, I kept wanting to find out what happened to her. It is not a fun book, but is a very illuminating one.

One of the themes I found most interesting was that so many members, even very high up in the organization, were willing to work with the police after being arrested. Ironically, one member who was cooperating with police ordered the murder of another for the crime of cooperating with the police.

A troubling part of the conclusion, however, is that the gang learns from past experiences. The narrative takes place 4-6 years ago or so, and things have changed since. As Logan notes, the criminal enterprise has expanded, the gang is less reliant on tattoos (which makes them easier to spot) and they are becoming more business savvy.

Further, for so many people the gang is their only means of feeling human connection. It was extremely hard for Brenda to stay away from her friends, even though she knew it was very dangerous. She did not like being alone and had no one else to relate to. Getting people to commit to an entirely new life is a daunting task.

On a separate note, another critical issue is the fact that police cooperation with local Latino communities is essential for obtaining information. Programs like 287(g) make an already tricky situation that much harder. People with valuable knowledge are not likely to talk if they fear deportation.

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Zelaya's peregrinations

You have to admire Mel Zelaya's persistence. Since his overthrow, he has been traveling almost constantly, and that has kept his profile up. His visits often do not achieve many concrete results, but it is notable that no government in the world supports the coup. Not even the IMF does. By the logic of coup supporters, I suppose that means the IMF must be a leftist dupe.

Zelaya was just in Guatemala for the second time, where Alvaro Colom reiterated that his government would not recognize the elections. From there he was returning to Nicaragua, presumably to the border, and he said something vaguely about events this weekend.

It is also forcing itself into the presidential campaign. Rafael Leiva Vivas, Director of the Academia Diplomática de la Cancillería, says that he is preparing a document for all the presidential candidates outlining how Honduras must change its foreign policy. Without giving details, he said that Honduras must address the fact that all of its traditional allies are now opposing the Micheletti government, thus creating a foreign policy of "dignity." Unfortunately, he does not recognize that the most obvious response would be to rethink the behavior that caused these problems in the first place.

Days since the coup: 70
Days until the scheduled presidential election: 84

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Uribe and Chávez

In the midst of all the anti-Chávez marches (including here in Charlotte) it is interesting to note the results of recent Gallup polls from Colombia, Ecuador, and Venezuela.

"Uribe is more popular than Chavez ... Chavez can count on the sympathy of 29% of the Ecuadorians, but Uribe has 37% and President [Rafael] Correa obtained 51% in the last week," Cedatos-Gallup director Polivio Cordova told television network Teleamazonas.

Uribe is even popular in Venezuela.

In Colombia, Uribe is approved of by 69% of the interviewed, Correa only by 13% and Chavez by 14%.

In Venezuela, Chavez is only barely more popular than his Colombian counterpart. 48% of the Venezuelans said to approve of their leader, while 46% were positive about Uribe. Correa can count on the sympathy of 3% of the Venezuelans.

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Where I agree with the coup government

After the State Department announced more sanctions, one response from coup supporters is that the country needs to depend less on the United States, and strengthen ties to Europe and Asia. I couldn't agree more, and it is unfortunate that it took this much conflict to hammer the point home. It certainly would be difficult, since the economic relationship is also deeply tied to immigration. For example, in the past Mel Zelaya himself has traveled to Washington to lobby the Bush administration about immigration crackdowns.

Regardless, diversification would be a good strategy for the country. The ultimate goal is to get to a point where you don't have everyone looking to the U.S. to resolve political crises.

Days since the coup: 68
Days until the scheduled presidential election: 86

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(Not so?) Done deal

The State Department (seems not to have?) finally cut all non-humanitarian aid to Honduras.

"The Secretary of State has made the decision, consistent with US legislation, recognising the need for strong measures in light of the continued resistance to the adoption of the San Jose Accord by the de facto regime and continuing failure to restore democratic, constitutional rule to Honduras," a state department spokesman said.

So the current question becomes whether the coup government can actually limp along until the elections. This has to hurt quite a bit. How those elections are perceived, both domestically and internationally, is a future question.

UPDATE: Or not? The BBC reported all non-humanitarian aid, while other news outlets like the NYT say it is only $22 million of aid that was previously already suspended.

Meanwhile, the AP says it doesn't know how much aid was terminated.

What a mess. The State Department wants to look firm but cannot even get its story out in a coordinated manner.

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Zelaya's promise to return (again)

After meetings in Washington, Mel Zelaya said that he was planning to return to Honduras if negotiations did not work out: "I am going to return to the country, to be with the people. I am organizing myself for this moment, which will come sooner rather than later." He also referred vaguely to using "fighting strategies" to do so.

The State Department indicated this was unhelpful. I disagree. I think it is irrelevant. I think most people will ignore Zelaya because he has said something like that over and over, without doing anything. It's been a month since he did the cross-border two step.

Perhaps at some point Zelaya's patience will actually run out, and he will risk bodily harm to return. But saying so repeatedly without acting makes it seem less likely.

Days since the coup: 67
Days until the scheduled presidential election: 87

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The displaced in Colombia

It is nice to see Time magazine examining the issue of the displaced in Colombia, which gets far too little attention in the mainstream media. The title of the article is perfect: "If Colombia is Winning Its War, Why the Fleeing?"

Last year, 380,000 Colombians were forced off their land amid fighting between rebels, paramilitaries and the army, a 24% increase from 2007's figure, according to the Bogotá-based human-rights group Codhes (the Spanish acronym for the Human Rights and Displacement Office). Colombian officials, in turn, put the number of displaced at 294,000 for just the first six months of last year. "It's the million-dollar question," Marie-Helene Verney, spokeswoman for the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees in Colombia, says of the perplexing trend. "Something is going on."

The article did not mention another factor, namely the tens of thousands of Colombians fleeing into Ecuador. Overall, it is a humanitarian disaster.

Perhaps the Colombian government can use the same rationale as the U.S. does with regard to the drug war, where it claims that both increases and decreases of coca cultivation are signals of success. More displaced people means you're winning even more!

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Zelaya and the State Department

Mel Zelaya is in DC to talk both with the OAS and the State Department:

The State Department official said the delegation is waiting to find out whether the interim government will change its hardline stance against a Costa Rica-brokered plan that would allow Mr. Zelaya to return to Honduras and complete his term.

Um, what? The coup government announced yesterday that Zelaya could not return as president, would get no amnesty, and there would no third choice as president. But it is making enough of an appearance of negotiation to keep draaaaaaaagging it out.

Days since the coup: 65
Days until the scheduled presidential election: 89

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Human rights and amnesty in Honduras

Roberto Micheletti now has reversed him (yet again) and now says Mel Zelaya cannot have an amnesty. He also seems to forget that at other times he has said Congress must make that decision, rather than him, or that other times he has been open to the idea (though, in all fairness, at other times he has also been closed to the idea).

He also denies the report on human rights abuses by the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights. He wants an "impartial commission" to come to the country to examine the human rights situation. I assume he has some Clinton-era lawyers in mind.

Days since the coup: 64
Days until the scheduled presidential election: 90

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Juxtaposition

The Venezuelan government will punish protesters because "all they want is to destabilize."

And

The Honduran coup government punishes protesters because they are "putting many Hondurans out of work."

Both of which bring to mind the immortal words of Barry Goldwater in 1964:

"I would remind you that extremism in the defense of liberty is no vice."

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Coup supporter choices

RAJ's most recent post reminds me that after two months, it is worthwhile covering some old ground again. Mel Zelaya sought to include a question in a national vote about whether Honduran voters wanted to form a commission to discuss the reform of the constitution. We know that a majority was against the idea, and so he certainly would have lost.

So in retrospect coup supporters are faced with the following choice:

Would you allow a president you believed was acting illegally to hold a vote he would lose, or choose to illegally overthrow him and remove him from the country?

Days since the coup: 62
Days until the scheduled presidential election: 92

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Getting the most out of China

The Economic Commission for Latin American and the Caribbean just released its report, Latin America and the Caribbean in the World Economy, 2008-2009 (here is a PDF of the 14 page briefing paper). It's main argument is that Latin America should get closer economically to China.

In the course of this decade, China has come to play a major role in production, international trade and FDI and has recently increased its international reserve holdings and the internationalization of its companies. For the region, especially for South America, recovery from the current crisis depends largely on sustained growth in the Chinese economy.

Further, Latin American countries should develop a coordinated approach to trade with Asia generally, but especially China:

The Latin American and Caribbean region has yet to fully assimilate the significance of Asia-Pacific, despite that region’s growing importance as a trade partner. Still less has any sort of coordinated strategy been developed among countries or groups of countries to forge closer trade and strategic investment links. Thus far, approaches by the Latin American countries have tended to be sporadic and isolated, and a number of bilateral trade agreements have been signed. Although these agreements are important, they are not enough to generate the scale and critical mass needed to encourage trade and technology partnerships between the two regions, nor to reduce the sharp asymmetry between the large volumes of trade and small levels of investment.

In other words, China is here to stay, so let's make the relationship work better for us.

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Micheletti's not so new proposal

With the possibility of further U.S. sanctions looming, Roberto Micheletti has offered what he calls a new plan. But you know things aren't going well when even the New York Times pokes fun of you for it:

“I’m ready to present my resignation,” he said in a brief telephone interview organized by aides.

But then he got around to his conditions, many of which had a familiar ring to them because they had been proposed before and had failed to bridge the huge political divide that has left Mr. Micheletti and the man he helped oust from the presidency, Manuel Zelaya, both claiming to lead Honduras.

It turns out his plan — which aides said would be sent Thursday to President Óscar Arias of Costa Rica, who is overseeing negotiations — is probably neither bold enough nor new enough to bring Honduras back together.

The plan does not allow Zelaya to come back to the presidency, and as RAJ points out, does not offer amnesty from the various charges levied at Zelaya after the coup, all of which should be viewed with suspicion at the very least.

This is the same thing I wrote about 10 days ago. Micheletti does his best to appear reasonable while rejecting the core of the San José Accord. Fortunately, it appears that strategy is not working as well as it once did.

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The military coup in Honduras

The State Department staff has recommended that Zelaya's ouster be officially labeled a "military coup," which carries with it significant aid cuts. It seems that Micheletti's latest refusal to negotiate was finally the straw that broke several camels' backs.

What I find interesting is the fact that State Department staff felt the need to make this leak:

"The recommendation of the building is for her to sign it," said the first U.S. official said of the 'military coup" determination, saying this was a response to the de facto government's refusal to accept a compromise that would allow Zelaya to return to power ahead of November elections.

This is purely speculation, but I have to wonder if the staff was fearful that the decision would get railroaded once pro-Micheletti lobbyists got wind of it. After this public declaration of State Department unity behind the decision, the administration cannot back out on it without looking foolish.

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Central American reaction

I've had numerous posts about the lack of Latin American action with regard to Honduras. Lots of talk but not much else. Now I am glad to see something more concrete: AP reports that the Central American Bank for Economic Integration has provisionally frozen credits. The Obama administration is obviously moving at a snail's pace (as per the latest press conference call) but hopefully the combination of multilateral measures will keep the pressure on.

Days since the coup: 60
Days until the scheduled presidential election: 94

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The State Department and Honduras

It is worth reading the transcript of a conference call a "senior State Department official" had with reporters, mostly Latin American. Those reporters asked some very good questions and kept probing, in a way that reporters from the U.S. have not. The highlights:

The U.S. is open to more sanctions:

SENIOR STATE DEPARTMENT OFFICIAL ONE: I think what I’m trying to say is that we really think that both sides need to accept the plan. And we will consider – we will continue to try to work with both sides that they will reach that same conclusion, and we will do what we think we can to help them move in that direction.

But the current visa denial will not have much impact.

QUESTION: Yeah, but I guess most businessmen would probably have multiple entry visas, which I assume would not be affected by this.

SENIOR STATE DEPARTMENT OFFICIAL TWO: That’s correct.

QUESTION: So we’re talking basically about tourist season, so about 45 – or rather, 30,000 tourist visas a year that you’re talking about. That doesn’t seem very – like a big deal.

SENIOR STATE DEPARTMENT OFFICIAL ONE: What we have said is that we are temporarily suspending services because we want to do a review.

And, finally, a gem of a quote about whether this should be labeled a "military coup":

We’re waiting for our lawyers to help us to understand what we’re supposed to understand.

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Latest OAS round

To the surprise of exactly no one, the coup government in Honduras told the OAS delegation that it would not accept the San José Accord. Seemingly in response, the U.S. government announced its embassy would stop issuing visas.

Although Latin American countries have shown they will not take action against the coup government, hopefully their efforts help spur the Obama administration to do something. Micheletti met with the OAS, then blustered on about how only an invasion would take him out. By contrast, Zelaya has accepted the San José Accord (a point reiterated by his wife in the most recent meetings). Therefore, perhaps even failed meetings serve to remind everyone that the coup government is lying when it says it is open to negotiation.

Days since the coup: 59
Days until the scheduled presidential election: 95

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The OAS yet again in Honduras

So the OAS is back in Honduras, hopefully doing something different. Up to now, interaction has been along the lines of the following:

OAS: Let Zelaya back as president
Coup government: No.
OAS: Follow the Arias Accord.
Coup government: No.
OAS: OK, we'll leave. And then do this again in a few weeks.
Coup government: No hurry.

So the essential question is whether the OAS delegates bring anything new to the table. What pressures are member governments willing to exert on the coup government?

Days since the coup: 58
Days until the scheduled presidential election: 96

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China's investment in Latin America

Hugo Restall at the Wall Street Journal has a very interesting article on the growth of Chinese investment in Latin America. It gets straight to the pragmatic interests involved, which I agree is the best way to understand China's role in the region.

There are two key points. First:

There are several reasons to be relatively sanguine about China's increasing involvement in Latin America. Most obviously, the Chinese interest in the region is pragmatic rather than ideological. The goal is to further economic growth at home by opening new markets and guaranteeing a supply of necessary inputs.

Rocking the boat politically is not on the agenda. Even where Beijing is engaging America's foes, like Venezuela's President Hugo Chávez, it is careful not to offer encouragement for their destabilizing activities.

Second:

The more China invests, moreover, the greater the risk of an eventual backlash. Already there are murmurings from vested interests in Latin countries that Beijing is a neocolonial power, buying raw materials and flooding the region with its cheap manufactured goods. Certainly competition from Chinese goods has had a much greater effect in Latin America than in the U.S., hurting the textile industries in Brazil, Argentina and Mexico. This has brought a wave of antidumping suits.

For all the talk of budding South-South relations, the reality is that developing economies directly compete with each other because their comparative advantages are similar.

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Adios Adidas

Fidel Castro is now wearing a regular shirt rather than an Adidas track suit, which has been his thing for three years. He may in fact not actually be dead.

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No amnesty for you

The Honduran Supreme Court issued a nine-point statement about the San José Accord, the most important of which is the assertion that Zelaya cannot have an amnesty.

It is a rather surreal read, as it emphasizes the need for rule of law and respect for the constitution, without acknowledging that illegal and unconstitutional acts are what brought the ire of the international community in the first place.

Now, the court is essentially arguing for the status quo ante, while pretending that forced removal from office, exile, human rights abuses, etc., etc. after June 28 never happened.

Days since the coup: 56
Days until the scheduled presidential election: 98

Update: the indispensable RAJ has detailed discussion and translation.

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Latinos and marketing in Charlotte

Particularly in the South, where the Latino population is still growing very quickly (though not as much as before, since the base population is now much larger) companies are well advised to capture as much of the market as possible. This is one of the beauties of capitalism--there is heated (sometimes vitriolic) debate about immigration, but if there is demand, companies will work to provide the supply.

Companies are also coming to understand demographic realities. The Latino population is here to stay, and they need to pinpoint the needs of young families.

I thought of this today because of an email I just received from Food Lion, a chain of supermarkets in the southeast and mid-Atlantic.

Dear Community Leader,

Within the retail and supermarket industries, Food Lion, LLC is well known for its support of Diversity and Inclusion at every associate level, while at the same time paving the way for Great Customer Experiences through our historically low prices.

With this spirit in mind, we invite you to participate in the “re-grand opening” of one of 54 Food Lion supermarkets that has been remodeled specifically to meet the needs of our ever growing Hispanic Community.

In these Supermarkets you will find typical Hispanic products that originally come from Latin America and are offered at our everyday low prices. Come and experience the changes in our Produce Department; tour our Meat Department and see the special cuts and the variety of meats and chicken we offer; visit our Fish & Seafood Department; look at our Frozen Food Section, and last but not least feast your eyes on our wide selection of Hispanic Grocery Products that will delight you.

Also, during the “re-grand opening” you will have an opportunity to review our extensive selection of Food Lion’s private label offerings, enjoy sampling, have the chance to win a Food Lion gift card worth $20, tour our store and partake of the ribbon cutting ceremony.

At these stores we will continue to offer the great services, including check cashing facilities and wire transfers through Western Union, our customers have come to expect.

Please join us in celebrating this important occasion for Food Lion and the Hispanic community in Charlotte.

Where: FOOD LION # 1376

5831 South Blvd.

Charlotte, NC 28210

When: September 9, 2009

Time: 6pm

Once again, we would be honored with your presence at our re-grand opening, and enjoy the best Hispanic products at great prices.

Best regards,

Daniel Herrera

Marketing Manager Hispanic Initiatve

Owen Hernandez

Hispanic Initiative Segmentation and Clustering GM

Food Lion LLC

I wish them well!

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Soft power, Iran, and Bolivia

In his book Soft Power, Joseph Nye had argued for the U.S. government to expend more resources on media, foreign exchanges, and other means of cultural interchange. Coincidentally, Samuel Logan at Security in Latin America notes how this is taking place. Except that it is Iran.

The Iranian administration caused an uproar in the government’s own Majlis parliament when it provided Bolivia with an unapproved loan of over 280 million dollars on July 31, 2009.Over and above the material and financial support that Iran has provided, newly installed TV and radio stations may spread Tehran’s influence at a more cultural level. Iranian radio has broadcast in-depth reports and interviews about its positive relationship to Latin America, the evils of colonialism, and anti-imperialism. “This opportunity has come up for Iran,” said Dr Massah, a university lecturer on one program, “to spread the slogans of anti colonialism, prevent the international system from becoming monopolized, and spread the sense of seeking justice, which arises from Islamic standards, in [Latin America].” Bolivia’s state-run TV channel regularly shows Iranian movies, and a Muslim preacher delivered services at a state-sponsored event in June 2009.

Interesting stuff. I have to wonder, though, how much traction Iranian TV and radio will get in Bolivia, and whether that would foster greater sympathy for Iranian foreign policy.

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Zelaya in Peru.

I had previously written about Mel Zelaya's newly established travel pattern for Mexico, Brazil, and Chile. Yesterday he repeated it in Peru. He met for an hour with Alan García, who said he supported the Arias plan but offered no more than that. Then Zelaya criticized the U.S. for not doing more. Then he left. Wash, rinse, repeat.

Days since the coup: 54
Days until the scheduled presidential election: 100

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We're going to live better

That is Eduardo Frei's new slogan. It is about as non-catchy as you can get. Better than what? Than all the previous years of Concertación governments, which included your own?

Frei needs help. A recent CERC poll has Sebastián Piñera at 37 percent, Frei at 22.3, and Enríquez-Ominami at 14.6. But there are still over three months to go.

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Joseph Nye's Soft Power

I read Joseph Nye's Soft Power: The Means to Success in World Politics (2004), a book I had been meaning to read for some time. Very often, diplomacy or negotiation (as opposed to force) is popularly referred to as "soft power" but that is a misuse of Nye, who first coined the term almost 2o years ago. His definition is the following:

It is the ability to get what you want through attraction rather than coercion or payment. It arises from the attractiveness of a country's culture, political ideals, and policies (p. x).

The idea is quite interesting. But the analysis is, well, soft. He argues that soft power rests on three resources: "its culture (in places where it is attractive to others), its political values (when it lives up to them at home and abroad) and its foreign policies (when they are seen as legitimate and having moral authority)" (p. 11). This certainly describes the problems the U.S. has had in Latin America in recent years, where for example the message of democracy is combined with policies that have serve to undermine it. It is also problematic, as Nye himself notes, that the U.S. pushes free trade in places like Latin America while maintaining agricultural subsidies.

But beyond that simple argument, Nye never lays out how these three variables interact, and what outcomes we should expect as a result. Instead, he offers fairly generic assertions like "To the extent that official policies at home and abroad are consistent with democracy, human rights, openness, and respect for the opinions of others, America will benefit from the trends of this global information age" (p. 32). Or that Yao Ming "could become another Michael Jordan" (p. 88) and this could mean something, though I never quite understood what.

The overall policy message is that the U.S. government needs to keep soft power in mind when dealing with other countries and not to pretend it doesn't matter. Nye's analysis is bland but that message bears repeating. In the case of Latin America, the current U.S. response in Honduras may well be squandering the small reserves of goodwill President Obama had generated. Soft power cannot be created quickly, but it can be negated easily. In Latin America, the U.S. government tends not to understand (or care much about) that.

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Amnesty International report on Honduras

Amnesty International released a report on human rights abuses in Honduras, based on a visit from July 28-August 1. This will be hard for the coup government to spin, though of course governments of all political stripes tend to argue human rights reports are politicized (either by leftists or imperialists, whichever you disagree with).

Amnesty International is concerned that those wishing to participate in peaceful protests against the de facto government risk being physically attacked or being arbitrarily detained. Amnesty International is also concerned that female protestors are particularly vulnerable and that some women and girls taking part in the demonstrations are reportedly suffering gender based violence and abuse at the hands of police officers.

Amnesty International is further concerned at the threats and physical attacks carried out by police and military personnel against media workers who are legitimately carrying out their important work covering events in Honduras. Intimidation of human rights defenders, increased restrictions on the ability of human rights defenders to move freely around the country and the erratic imposition of curfews are frustrating the capacity of civil society to monitor human rights violations across the country and limiting the essential and legitimate work of human rights defenders.

Roberto Micheletti says that he has prayed to God not to allow bloodshed in Honduras. Meanwhile, he has been giving the orders that led to the bloodshed Amnesty International describes.

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The more things change...

For some writing I am doing, I was re-reading parts of Alfred Stepan's classic work on civil-military relations in Brazil, published in 1971. He is referring to the military "moderator" role in politics. The following segment really struck me with regard to Honduras:

When we discuss the legitimacy of a government or the legitimacy of a political role for the military, we are largely concerned with what the participant civilian political groups considered appropriate political processes, given all the circumstances. My analysis indicates that the military was often felt to be the only available structure that could perform certain functions the participant elite felt had to be performed. Military performance of these functions--whether checking the executive or maintaining internal order--was thus granted some degree of legitimacy, even by many groups who on cultural grounds were deeply antimilitarist.

Thus when the argue in the following chapters that civilian groups "sanctioned" military intervention at certain times, my point is not to argue that I think such action was morally legitimate, just, or correct, but rather to illustrate how deeply embedded such activity was in the political system itself.

Alfred Stepan, The Military in Politics: Changing Patterns in Brazil (Princeton: Princeton University Press,1971): p. 66.

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Micheletti's message

One of the themes of the coup government is that it supports the Arias talks, but Mel Zelaya cannot return as president. Roberto Micheletti reiterated that in a press interview. This is a very good sleight of hand because it simultaneously supports and rejects the talks. Zelaya's return is the core of Arias' proposal, so Micheletti can appear publicly reasonable while ensuring that the negotiations never go anywhere.

Otherwise the interview is a lot of bluster. Strangely enough, Micheletti joins Hugo Chávez in claiming that a U.S. action may lead to war (invasion from Nicaragua? Who knows) though at least Micheletti does not suggest buying Russian tanks in response.

Days since the coup: 51
Days until the scheduled presidential election: 103

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The U.S. and Brazil in 1971

Anyone interested in U.S.-Latin American relations should definitely take a look at the National Security Archive website, which has posted declassified documents about cooperation between Brazil and the U.S. to destabilize the government of Salvador Allende. These were declassified as part of the State Department's Foreign Relations of the United States series, much of which is now online. FRUS is a very cool resource--I was introduced to it in a U.S.-Latin America class while doing my M.A., and plan to do the same when I teach a Latin American Studies graduate seminar next spring.

Presidents Richard Nixon and Emilio Médici met in December 1971 (Allende assumed office in November 1971). When you hear a dictator say that his visit "had been far above anything he had expected" you pretty much understand the Nixon/Kissinger approach to anti-communist governments. Médici also clearly felt superior to his fellow Latin Americans: "He saw how much difficulty he had in dealing with and understanding the Spanish-American mentality" and figured it was even harder for Nixon.

Regarding Chile more specifically, Médici assured Nixon that he had Brazilian officers working to cultivate Chileans to overthrow Allende, and was willing to disburse aid or money. Brazil is rarely mentioned in studies of the Chilean coup, so this is an interesting revelation. Someone needs to do some digging in Brazilian archives, just as Patrice McSherry did a lot of successful digging about Operation Condor for her book Predatory States.

At the same time, however, Brazilian officials were no dummies, and noted that it seemed the Nixon administration wanted them to do the "dirty work" and this might have negative consequences for the Brazilian military.

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Honduras nonupdate update

In news that seems not to have changed in weeks, the coup government will send officials to Washington to do some lobbying, talk nicely while obstructing, and mostly kill some time. Meanwhile, the OAS continues its proactive policy of inaction, as apparently its new delegation visit "is now expected in the coming weeks." People are accumulating a lot of frequent flyer miles, but not much else.

Days since the coup: 49
Days until the scheduled presidential election: 105

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Important Latin American news

I know there are political and economic crises throughout the region, but what could be more important than alien visitation? So stop the presses, because there has been a UFO sighting in Tacna, Peru. Apparently there have been some alien abductions in Uruguay as well. If they really wanted to help out, maybe they could just abduct Roberto Micheletti.

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Obama and Honduras

I recommend Tim Padgett's piece "President Obama's Latin Challenge" in Time, which concisely sums up the U.S. response to the Honduran situation.

In particular, two key points:

Obama got off to a good start in Latin America, engaging leaders and
promising a new attitude from Washington. The problem with the shift on coups is
that Latin America now expects action to back it up.

In other words, money must meet mouth. Condemnation is nice, action is better. Second point:

Obama is stuck in the New World's new paradox. Latin America today is less
dependent on Washington, and less tolerant of its interventionism, than it has
been for decades, thanks to the counterweight of rising star Brazil and the
anti-U.S. gospel of Venezuela's oil-rich leftist President, Hugo Chávez. Yet for
all that newfound self-reliance, Latin America still looks to the U.S.'s
superpower leadership to put the squeeze on rogues like the Honduran coupsters.
No other force in the western hemisphere, not Brazil, and certainly not the
Organization of American States, wields the requisite economic and diplomatic
clout to resolve the standoff.

On the latter point, however, I would add that Latin American political actors have barely tried. Unified clout could have an effect, but after the first week or so no one bothered to try anymore.

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Zelaya's new pattern

For the past week or so, the pattern has been the following: meet with Latin American president, hear platitudes (but no promise of concrete action) from that president, then ask the U.S. to do something. It's been that way for Mexico, Brazil, and Chile.

Days since the coup: 47
Days until the scheduled presidential election: 107

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More on the Catholic Church and Honduras

Some time ago I mentioned the splits in the Catholic Church in Honduras at the local and national levels. Thanks to a reader for pointing me to stories about Fausto Milla, a Catholic priest (from Santa Rosa de Copán) who in a public mass has called for insurrection (the link has some photos as well). This sort of grassroots effort helps explain why the protests have continued--and even grown larger--as time has gone on.

Right now, the Obama administration seems content to let the clock run out, Latin American governments are not willing to act, and Oscar Arias has the H1N1 virus. Therefore, it may be the Honduran people who ultimately push (or don't push) the situation in one way or another.

Days since the coup: 46
Days until the scheduled presidential election: 108

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Fun with O'Grady

Following up on my post about Mary Anastasia O'Grady, here is a 2003 article justifying the 1973 Chilean coup. The military's bombing of La Moneda, the torture, and widespread murder were all "courageous."

At least in that case she called it a coup.

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Letter to Obama on Honduras

Fifteen members of Congress wrote a letter to President Obama (PDF here), asking him to formally label the coup a "military coup" and thereby suspend non-humanitarian aid, while also freezing the bank accounts and assets of those involved. The idea is that measures can be taken that will not adversely affect the Honduran people. It will likely be ignored, but it's good to have it on the record at least.

Days since the coup: 45
Days until the scheduled presidential election: 109

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Tick tock

José Miguel Insulza says an OAS delegation will go to Honduras by the end of next week, over seven days from now.

Days since the coup: 44
Days until the scheduled presidential election: 110

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Honduras and O'Grady

If you're curious about the quality of the Honduran paper La Prensa, it is worth noting that one of their sources of information is Mary Anastasia O'Grady. In this particular case, they cited her rambling article about Honduras, the FARC, Mexico, Canada, Venezuela, and Communist parties.

This reminded me of a recent post by Stephen Walt about things he found baffling. Here is one:

I certainly don't get the business model that informs the content of the Wall Street Journal's op-ed page. The rest of the newspaper is an excellent news source, with reportage that is often of very high quality. The editorial page, by contrast, is often a parody of right-wing lunacy: the last refuge of discredited neoconservatives, supply-siders, and other extremists. Do the Journal's editors really think democracy is best served by offering the public such a one-sided diet of opinion? Do they feel no responsibility to offer a wider range of views to their readers, as the rival Financial Times does? More importantly, wouldn't their market share (and profits) be increased if they offered a more diverse range of views?

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No need for more tea leaves on immigration

President Obama announced that immigration reform would have to wait until next year. This is not particularly surprising, given everything he's trying to do at once. It had been a matter of speculation for some time, with Harry Reid giving positive signals along with Rahm Emanuel. But a common conclusion had been that Sonia Sotomayor's confirmation would give the administration breathing room. The administration could postpone immigration reform without bringing serious criticism from Latino leaders.

The fact that Obama's announcement comes two days after she was sworn in gives more credence to that conclusion.

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The clock ticking in Honduras

The coup government's about face on whether to allow a new OAS delegation into Honduras gained Roberto Micheletti some more time:

It's not known whether the OAS will accept the terms for the visit.

The meeting had been planned for Tuesday, but a new date has yet to be announced.

And here is something worth keeping in mind:

Days since the coup: 43
Days until the scheduled presidential election: 111

You stall a few days here, and a few days there, and it starts to add up.

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Zelaya and diplomacy Part 2

Since he needs U.S. help to be reinstated, it is not a great idea for Mel Zelaya to ask UNASUR to formally criticize the expanded military agreement with Colombia. This comes just after he made a joke about Mexican politics.

It has proven very hard to get any country to commit more than words to Zelaya's return, and so he needs to avoid giving anyone more justification for doing nothing.

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Fast vs. slow policy in Honduras

Liz Harper at Americas Quarterly quotes a "senior Republican aide" who wants to make clear that the party is not united behind Jim DeMint's position on Honduras, which is synonymous with the coup government's position.

Rather, he said “we know a deal must be brokered, and that cooler heads must prevail. In order to curtail increased suffering and bloodshed, swift action toward a peaceful resolution is called for. Swift action will need to be coupled with more nuanced consideration of the political problems Honduras has and a focus on pragmatic solutions.”

This is curious, because 100 percent of the administration's comments on the matter have centered on the fact that the negotiations must be slow and deliberate. Or perhaps "swift" has been redefined to mean "after November 29."

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Zelaya and diplomacy

Mexican President Felipe Calderón is obviously no ideological match with Mel Zelaya, but he made a point of giving him an official state welcome when he came to Mexico. Zelaya cannot afford to alienate anybody, so it was not a good idea to joke about Andrés Manuel López Obrador ("Sometimes it is better to feel like the president than to be the president"). Like elsewhere in Latin American, the Mexican government is not particularly interested in exerting any leverage over the coup government, so any gaffe just provides more justification for inaction.

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Micheletti and the OAS

Roberto Micheletti says the Latin American delegation from the OAS can come to Honduras if they want, but he will not allow Zelaya's return. He knows full well that no Latin American country has shown itself willing to back up OAS demands, so all Latin American diplomats can be safely ignored.

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"Military" coup

There are many reasons--strategic, ideological, etc.--that the Obama administration would decide not to impose sanctions on the coup government. We may disagree with those reasons, but we can understand them. However, the following is really just an insult to everyone's intelligence. The State Department is now saying that the administration has not labeled the crisis a "military coup" because after about six weeks they still can't figure out the legal issues involved.

QUESTION: Well, you haven’t officially legally declared it a coup yet.

MR. WOOD: We have called it a coup. What we have said is that we legally can’t determine it to be a military coup. That review is still ongoing.

QUESTION: Why does it take so long to review whether there’s a military coup or not?

MR. WOOD: Well, look, there are a lot of legal issues here that have to be carefully examined before we can make that determination, and it requires information being shared amongst a number of parties. We need to be able to take a look at that information and make our best legal judgment as to whether or not –

QUESTION: It seems to be taking a very long time.

MR. WOOD: Well, things take time when you’re dealing with these kinds of very sensitive legal issues. So we want to make sure that –

Yes, things take time. Like until November?

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Latin America's failure in Honduras

As I've noted before, the Obama administration is being criticized from all sides for its reaction to the Honduran coup. News that the administration will neither insist on Zelaya's return nor use economic sanctions is troubling, to say the least.

However, this also highlights the fact that not nearly enough attention has been paid to the anemic Latin American reaction, which has been characterized by an almost total refusal to go beyond rhetoric. Instead, Latin America talks, sits, and waits for the U.S. to solve the crisis.

The Arias talks came about precisely because of Latin American failure.

The only way to compel the coup government to accept Zelaya's return is to use leverage. Some of this will come from within due to strikes and protests, but the bulk will likely come from international actors who agree to take measures against the government. That includes Latin America.

José Miguel Insulza was very effective in quickly getting hemispheric consensus condemning Zelaya's overthrow, but failed completely in terms of going beyond statements and convincing Latin American governments to use whatever leverage they have. He went to Honduras, demanded action, and was ignored. As a result, before long he became a peripheral figure. If the mission he is organizing now is to succeed, the diplomats involved must demonstrate that Latin American governments are willing to put the heat on Micheletti. Thus far, they have not done so in any consistent (and certainly not collective) manner.

Fellow Central American countries do have some important leverage because of trade, perhaps the most leverage of any other Latin American countries. They halted trade for 48 hours after the coup, but then decided it was too painful for themselves. No one has said a word about a similar measure since.

Venezuela cut off oil supplies, which is a useful measure, and hurts because Honduras was getting it at preferential prices. The problem is that Zelaya himself notes that Honduras gets only 15 percent of its oil from Venezuela. The rest comes from the United States.

Now, Zelaya just visited Mexico, where Felipe Calderón treated him as a head of state, an important symbolic gesture. But Calderón promised only vaguely to help more "intensely." I hope that means something concrete, but thus far Mexico has done nothing.

And where is Brazil? Lula has promised to intensify pressure on the coup government, but I am not aware of anything specific. Zelaya has indicated he will visit Brazil, so we will see whether Lula takes any action.

I am disappointed at seeing so much passivity. Even Hugo Chávez was left saying, "Do something. Obama, do something!"

The big question is whether it is too late for Latin America to play a decisive role. The OAS is not being taken seriously after so many weeks of inaction, and if any international institution wants credibility, it has to go beyond talk. Can Insulza--indeed can anyone--do that?

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The Honduran coup was all for us

The Honduran military went on TV, making its best effort at spin. It was a valuable exercise, because now I understand that they were doing it all for me. For all of us here in the United States.

“Central America was not the objective of this communism disguised as democracy,” he said. “This socialism, communism, Chávismo, we could call it, was headed to the heart of the United States.”

Now I get it. Communism was on its way to my home, and so now I am feeling pretty relieved. Hugo Chávez likely also wants our precious bodily fluids.

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The OAS, Albert Einstein and Honduras

Perhaps I am missing something. I must be missing something. Early on in the crisis, José Miguel Insulza went to Tegucigalpa and demanded that Roberto Micheletti step down and let Mel Zelaya return to the presidency. Everyone said no. Now, five weeks into the crisis, he is going to send some diplomats to Tegucigalpa and demand that Micheletti step down and let Mel Zelaya return to the presidency.

"Insanity: Doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results."

--Albert Einstein

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The military and graffiti

I must say I have never seen a military publicly complain about graffiti, but the Honduran military is so mad that it posted an article on its official Web site. It's not really about graffiti per se, of course, because the graffiti photos they show have anti-coup messages. They end the article with a statement that it is "worth mentioning" that it is an illegal act to spray paint an historical monument.

Left unmentioned is their previous statement that if they enforce the law, there is no human rights abuse. Also left unmentioned is the basic fact that this is a matter for the police, not the armed forces.

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Censorship and glass houses

The coup government in Honduras has been censoring media and harassing journalists, and pro-government media there laments the fact that the Venezuelan government is censoring media and threatening to harass journalists who "manipulate the news with the purpose of transmitting a false perception of the facts." The Venezuelan news agency has lamented the fact that Zelaya's supporters were being targeted for censorship because they were not transmitting the coup government's view of the facts.

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Honduras and extreme dissatisfaction

I've written before about Vanderbilt's Latin American Public Opinion Project. Mitchell Seligson and John Booth have just published an article putting Honduras in empirical perspective. Once again, I apologize because they send an email with the PDF article before putting it on their site, but it will appear soon.*

The bottom line is their observation that in 2008 Honduran respondents had the highest ratio of "triply dissatisfied" versus "triply satisfied," on responses to three key aspects of political legitimacy: support for democracy, support for national institutions, and evaluation of the government's economic performance.

They posit that this measure provides some warning signs. "Like the weather forecaster, we still cannot say with certainty whether there will be a tornado or precisely when the tornado will hit a particular barn, but we can say something about when the conditions are ripe for a tornado to drop out of the sky" (pp. 5-6).

They provide a partial list, with the ratio of triply dissatisfied to triply satisfied.

Honduras - 6.17
Guatemala - 3.23
Panama - 1.67
El Salvador - 1.39
Nicaragua - 1.12
Mexico - 0.59
Colombia - 0.22
Costa Rica - 0.18

Further, here is a complete list of mean scores. 0 indicates triply satisfied, 1 indicates mixed, and 2 is triply dissatisfied. Once again, Honduras is at the top.

Honduras - 1.25
Haiti - 1.23
Guatemala - 1.13
Peru - 1.09
Ecuador - 1.08
Panama - 1.05
Jamaica - 1.04
El Salvador - 1.02
Paraguay - 1.02
Nicaragua - 1.01
Bolivia - 1.00
Mexico - 0.93
Chile - 0.92
Brazil - 0.90
Argentina - 0.89
Venezuela - 0.89
Dominican Republic - 0.81
Costa Rica - 0.79
Colombia - 0.79
Uruguay - 0.69

* Mitchell A. Seligson and John A. Booth, "Predicting Coups? Democratic Vulnerabilities, the AmericasBarometer, and the 2009 Honduran Crisis." AmericasBarometer Insights: 2009 Special Report on Honduras.

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