Lula's "success"

There has been no Brazilian foreign policy apocalypse with Lula's trip to Iran, which for reasons not entirely clear to me had seemed to become conventional wisdom.  Instead, Lula helped broker a deal for Iran to swap uranium, which it had rejected before.

I will leave it to others to judge the deal itself (the Washington Post has more details), which still needs to be agreed upon and not reneged upon.  This was no major breakthrough that Lula will be forever remembered for, but it edges Brazil more and more toward a recognized role as Middle East negotiator.  Even if this deal falls apart, the failure will not be Lula's.

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Droning on at the border

I have written more times than I can recall how high-tech border enforcement has never been as effective as people think/hope.  Many times, in fact, it is an abject and expensive failure.  No matter how overwhelming the evidence, lawmakers continue to push for virtual enforcement.  The latest example is using an unmanned drone in Texas.

This story revealed two things that I did not know.  First, Customs and Border Enforcement already has five such drones.  Second, drones have been patrolling the U.S.-Mexico border for a decade.

I don't have much to add.  It will be hyped.  It will be expensive.  It will do relatively little.

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Non-Latin America bleg

I am teaching an Intro to Comparative Politics course that begins a week from Monday, and I really need to include a short article (even a newspaper article if it lays everything out clearly--even a good blog post!) on the British elections.  It needs to be understandable for an undergraduate with no prior background.  Any suggestions?

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Moustafa Bayoumi's How Does It Feel to be a Problem?

I highly recommend Moustafa Bayoumi's How Does it Feel to be a Problem? Being Young and Arab in America.  The title comes from W.E.B. Du Bois, who asked the same question about African American during Jim Crow.  Bayoumi, who is an English professor at Brooklyn College, chronicles seven Arabs (men and women mostly in their 20s in Brooklyn) and we meet their friends as well.

As you might imagine, the result defies all stereotypes.  Some are deeply devout Muslims, some are not.  Some are very angry at the U.S. government, while others hope to leverage their knowledge of Arabic into an FBI job.  Some have close relationships with their families, while others (particularly one young woman) chafe at their parents' control.

What you can't help noticing is that their problems are the same problems that all young have--getting a job, getting married, figuring out your identity, etc.  The difference is that after 9/11, there is an extra layer of obstacles.  For all of them, even those with family members who have been arrested, terrorism is anti-Islam.  That's not even an issue, yet so many people around them figure they are terrorist sympathizers.

One interesting (and I think positive) aspect of the book is the fact that one of the men volunteers for an organization that sends out free Qur'ans.  Hits on the website spike and requests soar when a public figure speaks ill of Muslims.  Most of those requests come from non-Muslims who are simply curious to learn more.  There is an appetite for understanding, perhaps (and hopefully) greater than we tend to think.  What this book shows is that there are certainly cultural differences, but issues like high school elections, getting through college, arguing with your parents, thinking about religious beliefs, even just going out to eat, are entirely universal.

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Brazil and Iran

Boz has some links that use fairly alarmist language about Lula's engagement with Iran (though, to be fair, he does not use that sort of tone).  The upshot is that Lula is gambling his reputation and even the stature of his country, because if Iran balks, then Lula looks obstructionist and damages his relationship with the U.S. and Europe.

I'm not ready to buy this.  One problem is that the Obama administration is not talking like that.  In fact, one senior State Department official says "I think we would view the Lula visit as perhaps the last big shot at engagement."  From this perspective, whatever Lula does is win-win for the U.S.  He convinces Iran to back down, great.  If he doesn't, then it makes Iran look unreasonable and increases support for sanctions.

This is all very fluid, of course, and there are many unknowns.  If Brazil continues to resist sanctions, how isolated is it?  Where does Russia stand?  How belligerent does Iran become?  How pushy does the Obama administration become?  There are many more similar questions.

In short, reports of the Brazilian foreign policy apocalypse are premature.

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Racial profiling and furtive movements

In the context of the debate over the Arizona immigration law and racial profiling, Marvin King links to an NYT article showing that African Americans and Latinos are nine times more likely than whites to be frisked in New York City.

Of the reasons listed by the police for conducting the stops, one of those least commonly cited was the claim that the person fit the description of a suspect. The most common reason listed by the police was a category known as “furtive movements.” 

That criterion, of course, can mean anything.  Even worse, in 19 percent of the cases the reason for frisking was "other."  Lucky for them, though, they didn't need to be carrying their papers.

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Blaming Mexicans

Daily Beast senior editor Bryan Curtis blames Felipe Calderón for the Arizona immigration law.  I read the tortured argument and at the end was interested to see at the end that he wanted to highlight how he published the story of his grandfather's softball career (no, I am not making that up).  That pretty well sums up his expertise on the issue.  If you don't know much about a topic, then blame Mexicans!

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Hugo Chávez and Twitter

The Agencia Bolivariana de Noticias, aka the Venezuelan state news agency, reports that Hugo Chávez nationalized a university.  Its source?  His Twitter account.  Thus far, he has a team of about 200 people on the account, trying to respond to requests he gets via tweets.

It seems to fit his personality, as it is hyperactive, impulsive, and spontaneous.  And if you don't need to bother asking Congress, why not just announce your decisions on Twitter?

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Partido Progresista

Marco Enríquez-Ominami is creating a new party, the Partido Progresista (Progressive Party, or PRO, a name chosen through an internet poll, thus showing how he is closer to "the people") and will start obtaining signatures on June 1 (according to the Organic Law of Political Parties, he will have 210 days to obtain 0.5% of the total number of people who voted in each congressional district in the last election for Diputados).

On his website, he is looking to establish foreign policy credentials through discussions with Mexican officials, among other things.  I don't know how much anyone buys that, but with the Concertación chewing itself, there is definitely a gap for him to fill.

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Crime and Migration in Latin America

Charles H. Wood, Chris L. Gibson, Ludmila Ribeiro, and Paula Hamsho-Diaz.  "Crime Victimization in Latin America and Intentions to Migrate to the United States."  International Migration Review 44, 1 (2010): 3-24.

Abstract (gated):

Among the challenges faced by Latin America at the onset of the 21st century is the increase in crime and violence that began in the mid-1980s, and which, to one degree or another, has afflicted most countries in the region. In this study we explore the potential implications of the upsurge in crime on migration by testing the hypothesis that crime victimization in Latin America increases the probability that people have given serious thought to the prospect of migrating with their families to the United States. Using Latinobarometro public opinion surveys of approximately 49,000 respondents residing in 17 countries in 2002, 2003, and 2004, the results of a Hierarchical Generalized Linear Model found that, net of individual and country-level control variables, the probability of seriously considering family migration to the United States was around 30 percent higher among respondents who reported that they or a member of their family was a victim of a crime sometime during the year prior to the survey. Evidence that victimization promotes the propensity to emigrate is a finding that contributes to an understanding of the transnational consequences of the increase in crime in Latin America, and adds a new variable to the inventory of factors that encourage people to migrate to the United States.

This is an interesting addition to the "push factor" literature on Latin American migration to the United States.  It is well-documented that political violence pushes people, but much less attention has been paid to everyday forms of crime.  Everyone talks about needing to boost economic growth in Latin America, but simply reducing crime could reduce migration.

At the same time, we need case studies to tease out the relationship and make the argument more convincing.  For example, I was struck by the fact that 67.6 percent of Mexicans reported crime victimization (the highest in Latin America) yet only 10.5 percent reported an intention to migrate.  The authors control for geographic proximity to the U.S., but something is going on here.  On the flip side, the numbers of El Salvador show about half as many self-reported victims as in Mexico, but roughly double the percentage of those saying they intended to migrate.  If crime is so important, how do we account for this?

From a methodological perspective, this is an example of how quantitative and qualitative methods can work together fruitfully.  The quantitative angle piqued my interest but left me wanting more.

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Drugs in Latin America

Gallup has a new and sobering (no pun intended) poll about drug trafficking within Latin America.  A majority in six countries (Brazil, Costa Rica, Uruguay, Argentina, Panama, and Chile) say there are drug sales in the area where they live.  Those numbers have been climbing every year.  They are the highest by far in Brazil.

Drug consumption has been increasing in Latin America over the past decade.  In large part, this is a perverse result of growing disposable income.  The UN has already noted the high level of illicit drug use in Argentina, Chile, and Uruguay, the wealthier countries of the region.  We see extremely low numbers in Bolivia, for example, even though it is a producer nation.  Same with Honduras, despite being a major transshipment country.

In part, though, I also think this is related to the growing sophistication of organized crime, which is becoming more successful in creating distribution networks and keeping prices sufficiently low.  As usual, supply and demand are working very nicely together.

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Juxtaposition: Cuba

"Cuba says its sugar harvest is worst in 105 years"

AND

"Cuba records more visitors than ever before"

Viva the service economy revolution!

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Eduardo Frei's campaign

As the fallout continues from the Concertación's presidential loss, some of Eduardo Frei's advisers are talking about his campaign.  Qué Pasa has an article on the topic, beginning with a Power Point presentation prepared by Eugenio Tironi, one of Frei's top people.  Its message: Frei is seen as part of the past, no one remembers his presidency, and his only attribute is not being Sebastián Piñera.

Now that's how you generate excitement for a presidential campaign!  Tironi has also published his own book about the campaign, perhaps to explain why nothing is his fault.

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Unimportance of Cinco de Mayo

I recommend novelist Oscar Casares' take on Cinco de Mayo in the Houston Chronicle.

The holiday, which has never really been much of one in Mexico, crossed over to this side of the border in the 1950s and 1960s, as civil rights activists were attempting to build harmony between the two countries and cultures. The date gained more attention in the 1980s when marketers, particularly beer companies, saw this as a perfect opportunity to capitalize on the celebratory nature of the holiday.

Also important for marketing:

Of course, if you happen to not speak Spanish, Cinco de Mayo is much easier to pronounce, no matter of how many margaritas are involved. So a facility with the language and how this lends itself to marketing products around the holiday certainly must also play a role. 

Just imagine a beer company trying to fit Dieciséis de Septiembre on a beer koozie.

He brings up immigration as well.  And really, is it asking so much for people to actually know what Cinco de Mayo celebrates?

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Immigration debate

I was just on the Voice of America show Hablemos con Washington, talking (in Spanish) with Chris Sabatini (from the Council of the Americas) and Jack Martin (from the restrictionist organization FAIR) with host Leonardo Bonnet about the Arizona immigration law.  I have no idea whether anybody's opinions changed one way or the other from listening, but it was a very lively debate.  It was an hour show, and I am certain my Spanish improved greatly after about 10 minutes warm up.

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Arizona immigration and polls

The NYT offers up a poll showing 51% of Americans say the Arizona law is "about right," and then uses a "woman on the street" interview that greatly qualifies that finding.

“The Arizona law is fine, but the federal government has to step in and come up with something — and they’re not doing it,” said Pat Turkos, 64, a library worker and Republican from Baltimore.

She said: “I don’t think they should be stopped just walking down the street, only if they’re stopped for speeding, for example. I believe everybody has the right to come here, but I think they have to be made legal citizens.” 

First of all, even with the recent changes, someone walking down the street can be stopped if it appears they are loitering (or any number of civil offenses).  So part of the problem is that the person does not actually understand the law.

Second, despite supporting the law, this person also supports almost an almost entirely open immigration system that makes everyone legal.  That seems contradictory, but on the other hand may reflect a distaste less for immigrants per se, but for illegality.

In short, support for the Arizona law tells us very little about the overall views of the general public.  Maybe they are hardcore restrictionists, but maybe they just want the federal government to do something rational that eliminates--or at least greatly reduces--the need for anyone to be in the country illegally in the first place.

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Immigration and foreign policy

It's very common to use examples to show whether Barack Obama (or any other U.S. president, really) is "serious" about Latin America or is "paying attention" to the region.  Such examples are usually overstated, as there is no single issue that Latin American leaders are centered on.  For Mexico and Central America, however, it is fair to say that immigration is critical--lobbying the U.S. government has now been a top priority for their presidents.  It will be at the top of the agenda for Guatemala when Arturo Valenzuela visits.  It certainly will be for El Salvador as well.

Immigration is too often framed solely in domestic policy terms.  It is an intermestic issue, to be sure, but immigration policy is foreign policy--that is the crux of the debate over state and local immigration laws.  We become too mired in the overcharged swamp that is current immigration debate, without thinking sufficiently about the broader regional implications.

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Quote of the day: Colombia

“I will just have to present the same bill many times to get it approved.”

--Antanas Mockus on how to govern when your party has almost no seats in the legislature.

From The Economist; h/t Steven Taylor

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New numbers for Piñera

Adimark has new poll numbers for Sebastián Piñera.  His approval went down two points from March to April: 52% to 50%.  Disapproval went up sharply, from 18% to 31%.

As far as perceptions of how well his administration has been helping victims of the earthquake, approval went down from 70% in March to 55% in April.

These downturns are by no means disastrous, but he does not seem to be really impressing anyone.  On the other hand, the Concertación is not exactly popular (only 36% identify with it right now, versus 44% for the government, and 20% for no one) so is not in a very good position to take advantage of any stumbling.

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Doing immigration the Bachelet way

Chilean President Michelle Bachelet was famous for naming a new commission for practically every sticky issue she faced.  Many of these commissions gave reports that were quickly forgotten, but they gave the appearance of progress.  Now Lindsey Graham wants to head a commission on immigration that would not even meet until after the November elections.

Perhaps this commission will be equally successful as the 1994 U.S. Commission on Immigration Reform, which released a report wonderfully entitled, "U.S. Immigration Policy: Restoring Credibility."

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