Wednesday, May 30, 2018

Mexico Presidential Poll Update

The Americas Society/Council of the Americas has a nice poll tracker for Mexico that Carin Zissis keeps updating. You can see five different major polls and how they've changed over time. Here is the latest on intention to vote for AMLO and the difference between him and Ricardo Anaya, the PAN candidate who is second in every poll.

Consulta Mitofsky: AMLO 32.6%, up 12.1 (20% don't know/don't respond)
El Financiero: AMLO 46%, up 20 (does not include 38% who were undecided)
Parametría: AMLO 39%, up 14 (2% none or don't know)
Reforma: AMLO 52%, up 26 (does not include 17-18% don't know)
Buendía y Laredo: AMLO 32%, up 6 (20% don't know/no response)

It is worth noting that the share saying they plan to vote for AMLO has increased over time, though at the same time the number of Mexicans who either haven't decided or don't want to say is still sizable. We can speculate on where those voters will go (some have even analyzed Google searches) but we just don't really know. And we don't know the impact of election meddling, either from within or outside the country.

As a reminder, there is no runoff in Mexican presidential elections. Plurality wins: Enrique Peña Nieto only won with 38.2% in 2012, for example). So with one month to go, AMLO is in the driver's seat.


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