Friday, May 04, 2018

Shadow Venezuelan Supreme Court

OAS chief Luis Almagro recognized the decision of the exiled shadow Venezuelan Supreme Court to suspend the presidency of Nicolás Maduro. My first reaction is that this is pretty meaningless--you can call yourself whatever you want and make any decision you want but without any legitimacy or power it doesn't matter. I don't think Almagro has the support or stature to increase that legitimacy.

Some have argued that in conjunction with a shadow legislature it could gain legitimacy, especially by reducing international support for the government and reassuring people that regime change would not mean a political vacuum. I don't feel particularly convinced.

Further, having this shadow body meet and emit a decision in Miami is terrible optics. It reinforces the easily made argument that all such actions are being directed by the United States government and ideologically extreme exiles.

Finally, the opposition has no leader, which means that if it were to take power we have no idea who would be president. Therefore we also have no idea who that person would want in the Supreme Court. Chances that the choices would coincide with the shadow version aren't so high.

If am missing something here, feel free to let me know.


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