Tuesday, June 05, 2018

Mike Pompeo on Venezuela

Here is Secretary of State Mike Pompeo's speech to the OAS calling for, among other things, Venezuela's suspension. Unlike his predecessor and his boss, he was smart enough not to use inflammatory language. Instead, he stays away from military references and only emphasizes holding elections. What we can't know is how his private interactions went. The administration has indicated that it wants to twist arms pretty hard on this issue. That can only get you so far and veers toward the petty (e.g. literally "we're having a fun party and you can't come"). With Haiti is openly imperial.

There will be a vote today and the ultimate test will be whether the needle moves at all, especially with Caribbean countries. My hunch is that it won't move a lot--chances are pretty good that Haiti ultimately gives in, but there are plenty of Caribbean states who either still get a bit of oil and/or who have lingering positive feelings about Hugo Chávez, if not Nicolás Maduro.

Update (6/7/18): The vote was 19-4, with 11 abstentions, to open the door for an eventual vote on expulsion, which would require 24 in favor. Getting 11 abstentions into 5 more "yes" votes would not be simple. Nonetheless, Nicaragua is an abstention so even some hardcore supporters shifted.


Alfredo 9:13 PM  
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Alfredo 9:16 PM  

The DR will not move that needle...wants peaceful a solution...


Greg Weeks 10:31 AM  

Comments are all pretty vague, though.

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