Friday, June 01, 2018

Summing Up Post-Election Venezuela

With some help from Hugo Pérez-Hernáiz, David Smilde writes up a summary of some recent analyses of the post-election situation in Venezuela. I feel a little funny writing a summary of a summary, but it would basically be the following:

High abstention rates, which included Chavistas, weaken Nicolás Maduro, but do not stop him. The opposition needs to get its act together, and unanimity about election fraud could (finally!) provide a first step.

In short, things will limp along. About two weeks ago I wrote:

The most likely outcome is more poverty, more blustering, more emigration, more suffering and disease. Regime insiders will get rich. Maybe the military becomes discontent enough to force change but there is no sign of that now.

At least from what we can see, things have ground to a halt. At this point, the biggest danger to the government is a united opposition. This is more important than sanctions or regional response. One continuing problem is actually uniting around fraud--Henri Falcon called foul on elections but now is asking for...more elections. That is sure to keep the opposition fractured for the time being.


shah8 4:21 AM  

Eh, the idea of a "united opposition" was part of the toxic soup all along.

The basic issue has always been that the opposition refused to do any sort of real politics and catering to any sort of mass that might have momentum. The idea of a solid oppositional block, and the ambition it fosters towards control of the block rather than control of the country, has always undermined any resolution, with the nadir being the 2013 elections.

Mostly, just at this point, the gov't's gone Mugabe, and there's not much for anything to be done.

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