How Maduro Can Use US Sanctions

Not long ago, Nicolás Maduro made the ridiculous claim that there was no humanitarian crisis in Venezuela. He felt the need to do that because admitting it is acknowledging the failure of what he describes as a glorious revolution. There was no credible way of blaming his economic disaster on anyone else.

The U.S. sanctions on Venezuelan oil changed all that.

Now Venezuela is getting wheat from Russia. They are getting medicine as well. The new message: these are needed to combat the imperialist embargo, which has abused Venezuelan human rights. It provides the perfect ideological cover for the government to seek help elsewhere while saving revolutionary face. There is a dire humanitarian crisis that the U.S. government created. This has worked very nicely for the Cubans for decades. In fact, one of the points Geoff Ramsey brought up in his podcast discussion with Adam Isacson is that diehard Chavistas see the crisis as their own Special Period and they are ready to wait it out.

The longer this stalemate drags on, the more sanctions become a liability for the United States. Just as Cuba back during the Eisenhower administration, they had one goal: pressure the military and the people to oust Maduro. If the policy fails to achieve the goal, then all you're doing is punishing innocent people for no reason.

So Maduro is getting food and medicine elsewhere while expanding other markets for oil (especially India). This helps him keep key allies paid off even if troops defect here and there. Geoff and Adam also bring up the question of whether Latin American governments will resume more or less normal economic ties to Venezuela if the stalemate appears to be indefinite.

In all these scenarios, Venezuelans lose.