This is the end
The immediate crisis is—amazingly, given the heated exchanges--now over, but it happened so fast that a number of questions remain. As far as I can tell, the “agreement” is as follows:
- Nicaragua normalizes relations with Colombia
Fidel Castro argues that the only loser is the
Both Correa and Chávez can claim victory, as they received the promise from Uribe, and can say they talked tough while seeking peaceful solutions. Uribe comes out fine, as for the price of an apology and promise he hit the FARC very hard, and has also called more international attention to the FARC’s activities in
But questions remain:
--What is the status of all that information on the laptops?
--Will Chávez continue to speak well of the FARC and its leaders? If so, would that affect this agreement?
--Is there any sort of agreement about how to patrol the borders?
--If Uribe gets info that a high-ranking member of the FARC is right across the border, what will he do? Does the agreement address that?
9 comments:
"the fact that the Rio Group represented a successful diplomatic avenue demonstrates Latin America’s ability to solve its own problems."
I don't know if "solve" is the right word. Chavez will continue to support FARC, probably denying it while openly praising the terrorists at the same time. Uribe already knows Chavez's word is worth zilch, so whatever lies he told him will not fool the Colombians into complacency.
I do find it aggravating that Colombia's technical violation of the law overshadowed the far more grievous sin of Ecuador and Venezuela providing safe haven and staging grounds for a terrorist group along the Colombian border.
As for the US coming out the loser,
we are used to sitting at the asshole table, comes with the territory. It is nice to have some company, though. Welcome, Colombia.
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``I don't support, I have never supported nor will I ever support the Colombian guerrillas, nor any subversive movement against any democratic government. I swear to God and to my sacred mother . . .''
-Hugo Chavez, 2004
Colombia will behave exactly the same way if they find another FARC leader over the border. And they should. The commitments made by Uribe, Chavez, and Correa as part of this agreement mean absolutely nothing whatsoever except to diffuse the current situation. Venezuela and Ecuador don't have the firepower to take on a US-backed Colombia, and Uribe (and Chavez) know that. Bottom line, Uribe took out a major FARC leader, increased his already widespread support at home, and loses nothing diplomatically or strategically for crossing into Ecuador. In fact, he gains in that now there is widespread suspicion as to how Venezuela and Ecuador have supported the FARC.
I do find it aggravating that Colombia's technical violation of the law overshadowed the far more grievous sin of Ecuador and Venezuela providing safe haven and staging grounds for a terrorist group along the Colombian border.
Colombia's civil conflict is, first and foremost, Colombia's problem. It is not the responsibility of Ecuador, Venezuela or Brazil to expend scarce resources on manning every remote border area so as to satisfy Uribe. If Colombia's problems are going to continue to spill over into its neighbors' territories, then perhaps it is incumbent upon Colombia to try figuring out ways to end its civil conflict.
Venezuela and Ecuador don't have the firepower to take on a US-backed Colombia, and Uribe (and Chavez) know that.
Well, with more maneuvers like this one on Uribe's part, Colombia's neighbors may very well see to it that they have the firepower. It's maneuvers like Uribe's --combined rhetoric like Mike's-- that lead to arms races.
Paul, Mike and Justin.
Have you realized that you sound more radical than Uribe and Chavez?
Give it a break men. Take this for what it is: Good news.
Justin's comments notwithstanding, it is, I repeat, it is the responsibility of Ecuador and Venezuela to keep the FARC out of their territory. Both of these countries place great emphasis on sovereignty and control of their territories, and I can understand that.
As I've said before, though, they cannot have it both ways, pushing the sovereignty issue with respect to Colombia, but not with the FARC - unless they want to throw in completely with the FARC and be identified as co-belligerents with FARC in its war with the GOC, and I rather doubt that they want to do that.
If EC and VZ are going to be consistent about the sovereignty issue, then, then they need to come out strongly in condemning all, repeat, all foreign incursions/encampments/armed presences of Colombian belligerents on their soil.
If they don't, then I shouldn't think that Colombia will feel bound to honor any agreement, written or otherwise, to not go after the FARC in any refuges they might have in the neighboring countries. VZ and EC simply can't have it both ways, and they really need to understand that...
Bottom line is that you're living in political la la land, Tambopaxi. The region has shown its unity in opposition to what Uribe did, and it's only Uribe that had to apologize, so I think the gringo in Ecuador is in no position to be telling us what Venezuela and Ecuador "need to understand."
Justin,
You are obviously a distracted citizen of la la land. Venezuela and Ecuador commited to investigate the activities of the FARC in their countries and not to support them too. Uribe also won. They all won. Did you watch the interventions at all?
Greg,
To your last three questions:
2. Count on it, Chavez will say at some point that the FARC are fine fellows. He's a smart guy, so he probably won't say it tomorrow, but give him time. When he says something nice about the FARC, it sure won't help to keep the agreement in force.
3. I got copy of the Rio Group Text yesterday, but just got around to reading it. It notes Uribe's apology to Ecuador for the incursion and his promise not to do it again. Part 8 of the Agreement contains "firm commitment (of all Parties) to combat threats to the security of all States arising from the actions of irregular groups or criminal organizations, in particular those connected with narcotrafficking. Colombia considers these criminal organizations to be terrorists."
There may be some subordinate documents not mentioned in the Agreement which go into the question of border patrolling, etc., but I don't see anything about that.
4. Haven't seen anything which addresses your question on what Uribe might (or could) do in the event that high level FARC folks are id'd across the border - and that's the nub of the problem. There's nothing in the Agreement for sure, although that may be addressed in some related support doc.
If Ecuador and Venezuela can't or won't keep the FARC out of their territory, that is, if Section 8 isn't realized in its intent, I'd say the Agreement will have been for naught...
"It is not the responsibility of Ecuador, Venezuela or Brazil to expend scarce resources on manning every remote border area so as to satisfy Uribe."
"Satisfy Uribe." Justin, you douche. It's about terrorists who kill Colombians, not the satisfaction of Uribe. The mask is completely off now, your master has declared his allegiance to these bastards. Manning remote borders is not the problem, using "scarce resources" to aid the FARC IS exactly the problem.
"I think the gringo in Ecuador is in no position to be telling us what Venezuela and Ecuador "need to understand."
heh, so sayeth the Marxist gringo in his dorm room in the United States.
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``I don't support, I have never supported nor will I ever support the Colombian guerrillas, nor any subversive movement against any democratic government. I swear to God and to my sacred mother . . .''
-Hugo Chavez, 2004
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