Quote of the day: Chile
"The Concertación has ended."
--Marco Enríquez-Ominami.
There will be so much fodder for political scientists over the following months, and understanding the Concertación is a great example. Chile's political structures (particularly the binomial system) create incentives for coalition-building, but to what degree will the agency of individual parties (or just individuals) trump those structures? It is quite obvious that the Concertación's raison d'etre disappeared years ago, but has it, as Sebastián Piñera put it, run out of gas? If it is dead, then what rises from the ashes, and why? Back to the three-thirds? The computers of countless graduate students and professors are whirring in anticipation.
In the press, I suspect that ideological arguments will take precedent. Everyone will want to argue whether Chile (whatever "Chile" means in such analyses) is more conservative, how it fits into the author's preconceived notions of regional political shifts, etc. But the underlying structures and internal political realignments will be more interesting.
6 comments:
I'll agree with you (I think) in saying the political realignment inside Chile is more relevant than how this fits into any sort of regional ideological discussion.
And by that I mean those realignments will be more complex than any generic statement about "moving" rightward or leftward.
There is no realignment. The shift is not ideological. Piñera won only a few more votes than Lavin did ten years ago.
But Lavín lost and Piñera won. It is the loss, rather than the number of votes, that could shake the coalition.
Oh, the coalition will shake alright. And probably crumble. But that is due to its own miscalculations and long-standing political sclerosis. What has to change is how they do politics. Not what politics they do.
I'll agree with you (I think) in saying the political realignment inside Chile is more relevant than how this fits into any sort of regional ideological discussion.
Oh, but I'm sure Boz is secretly enjoying the prospect that Pinera will sew a bit more disunity in UNASUR.
Divide-and-conquer. That's the name of the game.
Post a Comment