Note to presidential candidates

I don't have a particularly strong opinion about robo-calls, but I do find them highly annoying when they last about two full minutes and consist largely of saying "please, please vote" several times. I let the machine get it, figuring it would be quick, but eventually I started saying out loud, "Please stop talking." This does not reflect well on Obama.

UPDATE: Hillary called only about 10 minutes later, but her message was mercifully short.

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Voted

Despite my best intentions, I never got around to early voting, so Amy and I went and voted this morning. Polls are all over the place, from a 4 point Obama lead to a 14 point lead.

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The four most influentialish Latin Americans of 2008

Time Magazine has released its 2008 list of the 100 most influential people, so I couldn’t resist checking out the Latin America connection—the total is four. Either Hugo Chávez or Lula really should be vying for the first Latin American on the list, but neither makes it anywhere.

So what they really have is the “most influentialish” list. These are Latin Americans who will not offend a U.S. audience, and make us feel good that we stick them on a list.

Michelle Bachelet was 15^th, and her snippet was written by Hillary Clinton (“Count me among the inspired”). She frankly just isn’t that influential, even within Chile. And really, does she want Hillary singing her praises? Anyhow, very influentialish.

Evo Morales was 18^th, and his comments were written by Joseph Stiglitz (“The bureaucrats have dug in their heels, and the country's élites hate his populist rhetoric and close ties to Venezuelan strongman Hugo Chávez. But Morales remains popular with his people”). In terms of anti-neoliberal reform, Chávez is clearly more influential. But Morales’ anti-U.S. comments are rarely translated into English, so Time can safely put him there and no one is the wiser.

Yoani Sánchez (a Cuban blogger) is 31^st and written up by novelist Oscar Hijuelos (“With a feisty dedication to the truth, Yoani Sánchez's activities bode well for the future of her country”). I am very sympathetic to ground level critics of the Castro regime, but I am not sure of her “influence.” They even list her behind Andre Agassi, whose influence escapes me completely. But c’mon, we need an anti-Castro person on the list, and Jorge Mas Canosa is dead.

Carlos Slim is 95^th and heralded by Alvin Toffler (“Even a superbillionaire can love and honor his spouse, treat women with respect, pursue wide-ranging intellectual interests and, in his own quiet way, support social reform”). As we all know, we feel good when we believe that the fabulously rich really care about social reform. In terms of helping the poor, Slim is definitely influentialish.

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Correa's secret documents

Rafael Correa says he has classified documents showing his plans to combat the FARC's presence in Ecuador. He will release them next week and says they will show how Alvaro Uribe is lying about Correa's relationship with the FARC. Since Interpol should be releasing its report on the infamous laptop, this situation could come to a boil again soon.

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Cementing a relationship Part 2

Last month I mentioned following the negotiations between the Venezuelan government and foreign cement companies, as the calls for nationalization had been contradictory. After having written about all the threats the government had been making, I thought it would be interesting to see how the threats eventually moved toward action. The government says it does not rule out the possibility of taking 100% control, as opposed to 60%, but nothing has yet been settled.

This raises the question of how precisely to define “nationalization,” which normally refers to a government taking complete control of at least some parts of an industry from private interests. To me, it seems odd to use the term “nationalization” in the case of joint ownership where private companies continue to make a profit along with the government. It is really more of a “forced joint venture.” In the case of cement, these actions are being taken only against foreign companies, so the cement industry per se is not being nationalized (though the vast majority of it was foreign owned).

This is not a trivial distinction. Concern about nationalization can discourage foreign investment, but I wonder whether the possibility of simply getting less profit has the same effect.

There is also the question of how companies respond during the negotiation process. There are currently rumors of a cement shortage, which the government is denying. The uncertainty is disruptive, so the government has a strong incentive to seal the deal as quickly as possible.

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Ending dictatorships

Jack Chang from McClatchy writes about Argentine Dirty War witnesses who are kidnapped and sometimes murdered to prevent their testimony—fortunately the most recent witness reappeared. I had also just read that Manuel Contreras, the infamous head of Chile’s secret police (the DINA) was in the hospital with kidney problems. He’s 78.

These two things came together in my mind in terms of how long it takes for the trauma of a brutal dictatorship to fade. There is a lot of great work done on memory (see Steve Stern’s trilogy on memory in Chile, for example) but less about the generational nature of such trauma. When, for example, did the Spanish civil war and the Franco dictatorship really “end”? Does it require that the protagonists all die?

I don’t mean that it becomes irrelevant, because people do remember, memorials have been erected, books have been written, etc. But it is truly frightening that in 2008, people can be kidnapped or killed to protect members of a dictatorship that ended in 1983. No matter how we specifically define the “end,” in Argentina it has not been fully reached. Chile is closer, but the dictatorship does still loom there (however, the transition from authoritarian rule occurred seven years later than in Argentina).

Hard to say. Indeed, a UNC Charlotte colleague in History, David Goldfield, recently published a book about how the U.S. civil war still isn’t over for some southerners. And that “ended” 143 years ago.

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Country Reports on Terrorism 2008

The State Department just released this year's report on terrorism, and after all the speculation Venezuela was not labeled a state sponsor (see here for my previous poll, where only 1/3 thought it would not be, though others believed it will be next year). Ecuador received praise, while Bolivia "showed new potential as a possible site for terrorist activity" because a number of terrorist groups "were thought to be present" there. That is the worst type of passive tense, similar to "it is argued" because it is attributed to no one.

Back to Venezuela, the State Department admitted it had no hard evidence: "It remained unclear to what extent the Venezuelan government provided support to Colombian terrorist organizations." However, the entire thing was not worded as strongly as I expected. Perhaps the State Department understood that such wording would immediately be used to Chávez's benefit.

In short, nothing much has changed. Cuba is still on the list because, well, we always put Cuba on the list.

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Border Patrol

Those who advocate an enforcement-only approach to undocumented immigration usually cite the need for more Border Patrol agents. Now the chief of the U.S. Border Patrol's El Paso Sector says the country needs broader reform, and not just agents.

Chief Patrol Agent Victor Manjarrez Jr. said that without comprehensive immigration reform, border agents continue to split their attention between "economic migrants," criminals and potential terrorists.

"Most of these people are economic migrants but we have to deal with them between the ports of entry because we have not, in terms of a legislative fix, determined what we do with these people," Manjarrez said.

"I think it's pretty obvious that the country has a need for economic migrants. To what degree, I don't know. That's for the country to decide and for the politicians to decide."

It is unusual for someone in the Border Patrol to speak about the political aspects of immigration, or at least I have rarely read these sorts of comments. His main point is that their job is to fight terrorism, and arresting people who just want jobs actually hurts the country’s security:

"Our primary mission changed from our traditional focus. Our primary mission now is terrorists and weapons of mass destruction. That's what we should be focused on. We can't focus on that as much as we would like because of all the other issues that we deal with."

That argument has been made before, but perhaps it will start gaining more traction. It is remarkable how many resources we use to address economic migration, believing that we can stop it.

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Uribe and a third term Part 2

I've done several posts on Uribe's likely push for a third term (here is the last one). Now in an interview Andres Oppenheimer tried to pin him down on the issue, and he refused to answer directly, but his answers (just as past statements) strongly suggested he would.

I told him that I have seen many popular former Latin American presidents, such as Argentina's Carlos Menem and Peru's Alberto Fujimori, lose their way as they got blinded by power. They sought third terms in office, and they ended badly.

''Don't worry,'' Uribe said, indicating that it wouldn't happen to him. Comparing himself to a peasant who is used to many hardships and rough roads, he said that ``a hard-working peasant can resist a long and abrupt road without losing his way.''

The guy is from a wealthy family and went to Harvard. Calling himself a peasant is very much like George W. Bush cultivating an image of a simple Texan. But the thing is, Bush is actually stepping down after two terms...

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Primaries in Charlotte

The campaigns in NC are all over the place now. We’ve received about three robo-calls from each side, though Obama himself wasn't in any of them (his wife was in one, and others were just staff members).

Governor Mike Easley has now endorsed Clinton, but since he’s a largely invisible governor and I am willing to bet many voters (especially newly registered ones, of which there are many in the state) have never heard of him, I can’t see that mattering very much. She needs a boost, as a recent poll has her behind 52%-42% (with 4% unsure and 2% other, and a 4% margin of error).

Early voting has already begun here, and I had planned to go yesterday. With the baby’s arrival that did not happen…

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Elizabeth and me

My daughter Elizabeth was born this morning at 8:18. She and Amy are both perfectly happy and healthy--it could not have gone more smoothly (especially since she is our third, it also happened pretty fast).

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U.S. policy toward Ecuador

The L.A. Times offers up a solid editorial on U.S. policy toward Ecuador, counseling “respectful engagement, not Cold War bluster.” It also brings up an issue I had just discussed in my U.S.-Latin American Relations class on Wed., namely the importance of distinguishing between nationalism and hostility toward the U.S. government. For example, the Manta base in Ecuador is unpopular, and other presidential candidates similarly called for its closure. Yet when Correa moves ahead with it, the U.S. frames the decision as an ideological move that puts Correa in league with Chávez.

This is an age-old problem. During the Cold War, the U.S. was all too often blind to domestic realities, so nationalists were most often labeled either communists or dupes of communists. The unfortunate result is that we made (and continue to make) enemies of people who need not be so.

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Prize money

The Cato Institute has decided to give $500,000 to Venezuelan student activist Yon Goicoechea for the “Milton Friedman Prize for Advancing Liberty.” Think tanks are certainly free to give their money to whomever they wish, but my immediate reaction was that this prize could permanently derail his political career and end up having the opposite effect the Cato Institute and others who hate Chávez want.

In Venezuela and in the international media, from now on he will be known as the “guy who is having money funneled to him from the U.S.” He wants to create a foundation to train young people who want to go into politics, and that foundation will also be labeled as the “foundation created with U.S. money to attack Chávez.”

His response:

''The government already says we're financed by the CIA. It already says we're paid by the empire. So if they say it one more time, it really isn't that important,'' he said.

True, but the real effect will be on Venezuelans, not just the government. Even Venezuelans who aren’t enamored of Chávez won’t necessarily be so happy to follow a young leader whose activities are all openly funded with U.S. money.

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Correa and the military in Ecuador Part 2

So what’s a good strategy once you’ve really challenged the armed forces and fired the leadership? Buy them lots of new stuff.

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Military legacies in Chile

The Chilean Congress is starting to debate the removal of military representatives from the National Television Council, which itself is a product of the latter part of the Pinochet government and was meant to act as a television moral watchdog. Three things come to mind.

First, this is a matter of very low salience to the armed forces so I'd be surprised if they offer any resistance.

Second, to my knowledge over the past 18 years the military has made no effort to affect any decision the organization has made (I wonder if officers even attend regularly) but it is the type of law that could easily be abused under certain circumstances. Every country, but especially those with dictatorship-era laws still on the books, should do the equivalent of a computer virus scan to make sure all obscure and potentially nasty laws are discovered and removed.

Third, it is really absurd that it took 18 years to do this. Better late than never.

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Right on time?

There are reports that more Cubans have been leaving the island since Fidel stepped aside. At the same time, there are rumors that the Cuban government is going to lift requirements for citizens to receive exits visas.

The timing is notable, because this has happened every 14-15 years. Fidel has used refugees three different times—1965, 1980, and 1994—as a way to deal with his own internal problems and to affect U.S. policy (a “weapon of the weak”). There’s a recent article that analyzes the 1994 balseros crisis, putting it into historical perspective.*

It remains to be seen if the same is occurring now, but in the past it has begun with a signal that an exodus may occur, which is expected to prompt dialogue between the two countries on certain issues (in 1994 it was mostly immigration policy but normalization of relations is always an accompanying goal). If dialogue is rejected, then the exodus occurs, and the dialogue happens anyway but in the context of crisis, which a U.S. president must address quickly or be hurt domestically:

“[T]he appearance of loss of control over US borders, coupled with the perception inside the US that Floria might be overrun, would be viewed by US leaders as politically costlier than the alternative of dealing with him. Thus if Castro could transform his own domestic problems into the US’s problems via exploitation of refugees, he could coerce its leaders into helping him solve them” (p. 48).

One difference from the past is that there is no defiant speech, which was Fidel’s way of signalling. If a similar situation is happening, then this may just reflect a different strategy, because Raúl doesn’t make fiery speeches.

*Kelly M. Greenhill, “Engineered Migration and the Use of Refugees as Political Weapons: A Case Study of the 1994 Cuban Balseros Crisis,” International Migration 40, 4 (September 2006): 133-164.

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Paraguayan presidential election

If you follow Latin American politics at all, then you know that Fernando Lugo won the Paraguayan presidential election with 41% of the vote (no runoff required) thus ending over six decades of Colorado Party rule. It is certainly nice to see that party (like the PRI) finally allow competitive elections.

President Duarte was gracious, perhaps more than you might expect given the heated campaign rhetoric against Lugo:

Sitting President Nicanor Duarte hailed the democratic process: "For the first time in our history, one party will transfer power to another without a coup, without bloodshed and without fighting among brothers," he told a news conference.

True enough.

However, there were also legislative elections, which include all 45 members of the Senate and all 80 members of the House of Deputies (both use proportional representation, with five year terms). The Colorado Party had a plurality in both from the 2003 elections.

I haven’t seen the results of yesterday’s elections, which are obviously very important for understanding how much Lugo can do. (This is the government’s official site for results, which up to this point only shows the presidential race). Remember that once the PRI lost the presidency, it worked successfully to block presidential initiatives in the legislature.

It will be also be interesting to see how he addresses regional issues, such as Venezuela’s entrance into Mercosur (which is being held up in the Paraguayan and Brazilian legislatures) and the U.S. obsession with the Triborder Area. As far as I can tell, no one in the U.S. government has yet said anything about the election. Lugo seems quite moderate but expect media attention about “leftists,” “pink tide,” etc. to lump him together with all other Latin American leaders who aren’t conservative.

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Laws are just nuisances anyway

I ran across this political cartoon, which addresses the problem of the Bush Administration voiding laws it doesn't like in order to build a border wall.

There is now a suit to end that process, arguing that it is unconstitutional. But you have to read this to believe it:

The Defenders of Wildlife and the Sierra Club first brought the suit against the Bureau of Land Management, challenging the legality of border fence construction in the San Pedro Riparian National Conservation Area in Arizona.

Though they eventually lost the case, the environmental groups won a restraining order from Huvelle in October 2007 that temporarily stopped border wall construction and instructed DHS to investigate the local environmental impacts of the project.

Chertoff responded by using the waiver authority; in November, he circumvented the restraining order by waiving 19 federal statutes. He followed that up this month by authorizing two waivers — involving some 30 laws — in order to complete construction of the fence and other protective measures in California, Arizona, New Mexico and Texas.

In other words, if you don't like a restraining order, then you waive federal law so you can ignore it. I am tempted to use the cliché that it "boggles the mind" but in fact with the administration my mind cannot be boggled any further.

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Writing book proposals

Notorious Ph.D. offers some good advice about writing book proposals. I've reviewed a number of pretty bad ones, and so her emphasis on clarity--which seems obvious but is too often neglected--should always be kept in mind. But I also like her discussion of making it interesting.

Be interesting quickly. I suck at this. It's why online dating didn't work out for me. Maybe my proposal needs a push-up bra. I'm not sure how I'm going to get there in my own proposal, but I do know that I've got to get it out there in the first paragraph, rather than embrace my own tendency to meander.

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Latinos are not swing voters

David L. Leal, Stephen A. Nuño, Jongho Lee, and Rodolfo O. de la Garza, “Latinos, Immigration, and the 2006 Midterm Elections,” PS: Political Science and Politics XLI, 2 (April 2008): 309-317.

There’s no abstract, but full text is available.

As the title suggests, the article takes a close look at the 2006 midterm elections and compares conventional wisdom about Latino voters to the actual results.

The most important conclusion is that despite conventional wisdom, Latinos were not swing voters. Their partisanship was relatively solid, and any changes (e.g. a drop in support for Republicans) were similar to that of other voters. Here’s a great quote:

Some pundits, journalists, and political consultants may repeat the myth for professional reasons. It would produce much more interest, as well as create suspense, if a substantial share of the Latino electorate was said to frequently switch its support for political parties and candidates. Such a portrayal would help generate more demand for those who provide interpretation of, commentary about, and outreach to the Latino electorate (p. 313).

They note that 23.5% of Latinos are undecided about party affiliation, which I think is a topic that deserves more attention. I’ve blogged about that before, and in a previous post had some interesting discussion in comments.

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Fujimorismo

I was about to put this in my Shared Items, but it was disturbing enough that I thought I would post it. The blog Fujimori on Trial shows how Alberto Fujimori has become much more popular after being extradited to Peru and put on trial for human rights abuses. In February 2007 9.8% sympathized with him, and in February 2008 that had risen to 14.7%. In a survey of Lima residents, 31.2% said they would vote for him again. Further, his daughter Keiko is a rising star and is increasingly being seen as a viable presidential candidate.

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Venezuelan oil tax

The Venezuelan legislature approved “windfall” taxes on oil profits. From the BBC:

They face a 50% tax when a barrel of crude is priced at $70 or more, rising to 60% when average prices tops $110.

It is President Hugo Chavez's latest attempt to get greater control over his country's oil.

Two things come to mind. First, windfall taxes do not give the Venezuelan government any more control over oil. They give it more profit, which is different.

Second, the 60% rate is actually identical to what the Venezuelan government was getting in 1959 for all oil profit regardless of price. Coincidentally, I just finished reading a book chapter on U.S.-Venezuelan relations as part of a big Latin American Research Review multi book review I am doing on U.S.-Latin American relations.* Despite its title, the chapter focuses primarily on the 1940s-1960s, arguing that the U.S. government—even in the face of the treatment Richard Nixon received in 1958—accepted Venezuelan nationalism with regard to state control over natural resources. In addition to oil, a 1965 law required majority Venezuelan ownership of insurance companies.

Obviously, the context is quite different. At that time, harsh criticism of the U.S. government came from civil society rather than the presidency (which generally followed U.S. cold war policies). Nonetheless, it is worth keeping in mind. Even in the 1960s, in the wake of the Cuban revolution, the U.S. government and companies accepted the measures.

*Darlene Rivas, “Patriotism and Petroleum: Anti-Americanism in Venezuela from Gómez to Chávez.” In Alan McPherson (ed.). Anti-Americanism in Latin America and the Caribbean (New York: Berghahn Books, 2006): 84-112.

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Political Science blogging

I just received the latest issue of PS: Political Science and Politics, which has a supplement. The first page has an article by the APSA Director of Web & Publications, entitled “Informed Publishing in Political Science.” APSA is going to focus more on teaching political scientists “the basics of and trends affecting publishing in political science.” This sounds like a really good idea, and will include a soon-to-be-released book Publishing Political Science: the APSA Guide to Writing and Publishing.

Daniel Drezner is writing the chapter on blogs. He had asked for comments (for some reason I thought I had written one, but looking at his post again I must’ve forgotten to do so). There are certainly a lot of general comments to be made about writing blogs, but I also think there are differences according to subdiscipline. This is the sort of issue that will come up at our LASA workshop (assuming it is accepted--I do not want to jinx myself, and notifications won't come until October). For Latin Americanists vs. Americanists, for example, there is a very different audience, range of issues, and expectations.

Regardless, I’m glad the topic of political science (as opposed to “political”) blogs is getting more professional attention. I must say it still surprises me that so few colleagues really seem aware of them.

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F.C. phone home

When given the chance, Cubans really like the idea of getting cell phones. Also, it appears that Fidel came up with the idea, pushed for it, and simultaneously doesn't like it.

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China and Cuba

President Bush on Cuba (March 2008):

In the face of these abuses, the United States has not been silent, nor will we be silent. (Applause.) We have been consistently joined in condemning the Cuban regime's brutal outrages by a small band of brave nations.
…
They must release all political prisoners. They must have respect for human rights in word and deed, and pave the way for free and fair elections.

President Bush’s National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley on China (April 2008):

Asked whether confronting the Beijing government about Tibet in public was counterproductive, Hadley said: "It's an issue of the Chinese government. It's also an issue of the Chinese people, who are very invested in the Olympics, who see it as a coming of age for China. And so it's a balancing here. We think that it is very important to deal with the Tibet issue. But we think the best way to do that is through the kind of diplomacy we have been undertaking, not by the kind of frontal confrontation that's being suggested by some."

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More on defense

José L. Díaz Gallardo, “Carrera Civil en Defensa: Análisis y Propuestas Para el Caso Chileno.” Security and Defense Studies Review 7, 2 (Fall 2007): 130-144.

Full text is available

Following up on a discussion about Ecuador and lack of ministerial expertise, I remembered this article, in the journal edited by the Center for Hemispheric Defense Studies in DC. It’s a relatively new online-only journal and has published some interesting stuff on civil-military relations and defense. Díaz has written quite a few articles and books on Chilean civil-military relations, both historical and contemporary.

Abstract: Scholars have analyzed participation by civilians in defense ministries in Latin America from a dual perspective: as part of a civilian-military integration and as an instrument of civilian control of the sector. These practices have been adopted in a context of democratic consolidation and, in the governmental sphere, of a demand for rationalization and greater efficiency and effectiveness in the conduct of government.

The case of Chile is a good example of this. Since the restoration of democracy (1990), the inclusion of civilians in the Ministry has been a constant. All of the ministers have been civilians, as have all undersecretaries; however, because the Ministry does not have a permanent staff of civilian professionals, an Advisory Committee has gradually and inorganically developed within the Ministry, which brings in people who provide advisory services on political, politico-strategic, budgetary, international, communications and auditing issues.

The modernization of defense requires a new ministerial organization, which structure must take into consideration the Administrative Law that governs civil public administration. The new law governing the ministry should provide for, as one of its cornerstones, a civil service track for civilian professionals. Finally, the new Undersecretariats, divisions and departments must contribute to improving relations with the Armed Forces.

In Chile after 1990, only 3 of 10 Defense Ministers have had any defense expertise, though at least that was a greater percentage than the 1932-1973 period. However, in the postauthoritarian era the government has been paying more attention to professionalizing the bureucracy (and the Defense Ministry has been undergoing reforms to eliminate duplication of duties). Whether or not that translates into a larger, decently paid, and permanent staff remains to be seen.

But this is the sort of thing is something that all other Latin American countries should pursue because it will pay future dividends. It does no one any good to rely on political appointees with little or no relevant knowledge and informal kitchen cabinets to be the bridge between the president and the military leadership.

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Cementing a relationship

Is the Venezuelan government going to nationalize the foreign-owned cement industry?

Chávez announced nationalization plans, and there was talk of a 60%-40% split. But then he said it would only apply to companies that were previously state-owned and subsequently had been privatized, which would not to apply to the big foreign companies like Cemex.

I can’t find anything clarifying it at the Agencia Bolivariana de Noticias site. On the Venezuelan government site, there is a quote from the Energy and Petroleum Minister from several days ago that “conversations” continued with foreign firms to give up at least 60% control. But he didn’t mention Chávez’s remarks. According to Cemex, Ramirez also informed the company “that other options may be considered during a negotiation period.”

At some point I will follow up on the issue of making threats of nationalization, especially as multiple announcements have been made in the past week or so. But I do want to see what the outcome is of this case. It is hard to imagine Chávez not following through at this point, but for now the government is not clarifying its intentions.

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Correa and the military in Ecuador

The civil-military conflict in Ecuador bears watching. I published an academic article five years ago about the role of Defense Ministries, which included a (now outdated) mention of Ecuador. One of the arguments was that military-dominated ministries represent a long-term obstacle to civilian supremacy over the armed forces. I further argue that naming inexperienced Defense Ministers is also an obstacle. [Not everyone agrees, I should add, and I have sometimes been portrayed as too pessimistic]

Rafael Correa is in a very tough position. The Defense Ministry in Ecuador has traditionally been dominated by the military, and until recently the minister himself was an officer (that shift to a civilian minister is, at least, a positive step). This makes it very difficult to establish civilian authority, as shown by Correa’s constant shuffling (four ministers in fifteen months). This is especially true in a country with a relatively recent history of military political intervention.

Correa is angry, and has a right to be. If the military leadership is withholding or hiding information from the president, they need to be fired. He did so, and the fact that it happened smoothly (at least thus far) is a good sign. He is also investigating the relationship between the intelligence services and the U.S. (the autonomy of military intelligence services is another troubling issue I’ve worked on).

However, naming an activist as minister who has been highly critical of the military will likely not turn out well. I understand the motivation, the message that Correa wants to send to the armed forces, as well as his desire to have a close associate in the position. But the most likely outcome is greater civil-military tension and less respect for the government. The military will do its best to ignore the ministry and will use various means to circumvent it, thus making life more difficult for the president. With any luck, I’m wrong.

The problem all over Latin America is a critical shortage of people from the left or center-left who are knowledgeable about their militaries. This doesn’t mean being sympathetic, or kowtowing, but just knowledgeable about defense policy and the military world. What Correa needs is someone who can bridge the gap by talking to the military leadership and gaining their respect without either doing their bidding or alienating them. I do not know how many people there are in Ecuador who fit that description.

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Baseball bullets

Here are some early season baseball bullets:

• I don’t think Jim Edmonds is going to work out too well. This year’s Baseball Prospectus says “The Padres’ plan to play him in center in spacious Petco Park is misguided.” Then for Wednesday’s game the money quote from the San Diego Union-Tribune was “Jim Edmonds didn't have the speed to reach Daniel Ortmeier's winning double over his head in center in the ninth, or score from third on Josh Bard's fly to left in the seventh."

• After the end of last year and the beginning of this year, I get nervous when Trevor Hoffman comes in, which is a drag. I love him but his days seem numbered.

• Because they are on TV so much, after a total of about 11 years living in NC, I find myself liking the Braves. As a teenager (when they were in the NL West) I would’ve laughed in disbelief at such a possibility.

• As I mentioned sometime last season, there are few more likable players than the Twins’ Pat Neshek, who blogs here. How many players tell fans exactly when to come down to the bullpen before a game so he can sign autographs?

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New links

I received an email from the Venezuela Information Office in DC asking if I would link to their blog Venezuela World. Sure, why not? For fun I will also link to the Western Hemisphere part of the State Department’s blog Dipnote. Get government-sponsored news to your heart’s content!

Governments’ entrance into the blogosphere deserves some attention. Everyone tends to focus on how blogs may affect politics or serve to frame political debate, but I don’t recall any analyses of how governments use blogs to offer their own contribution.

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More talking points for the Colombia FTA

Nancy Pelosi has announced plans to change the rules about the 90 day up-or-down vote on the Colombia FTA bill.

I laid out some of the key talking points on Tuesday, but this is crunch time and so I am providing some more. People, we need to pass this FTA:

--Because we might be able to sell more motor graders.

--Because the administration had 400 meetings with members of Congress and sent 60 members to Colombia to check things out. Do you really want all that time and money to be wasted?

--Because an FTA symbolizes a commitment to democracy, hope, prosperity, anti-terrorism, stability, national security, and social justice (note: be sure to say really fast which makes it sound more impressive)

--Because changing the fast track rules is “unfair.” (look hurt while saying—wiping away a tear would also be effective)

--Because they like this deal in Vegas

And my personal favorite:

--Because otherwise you’re just like Herbert Hoover. Do you really want to be like Herbert Hoover? (maybe call the other person “punk” while saying)

But if for no other reason, do it for the children!

Update: a bonus talking point from Daniel Drezner: pass the FTA so that free trade can get locked in forever and ever, no matter what.

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Not an argument you see every day

NC’s own Heath Shuler is pushing a bill to force employers nationwide to check the immigration status of their employees through a government database. The Congressional Budget Office reported that if passed the law would be very expensive. Part of the reason is that the enforcement would drive people further underground, thus depriving the federal government of $17 billion they otherwise would’ve paid in taxes. In other words, the U.S. economy depends in part on undocumented immigrants paying taxes and not receiving anything in return.

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Bachelet bump

Michelle Bachelet’s approval rating is up to 46.4%, and the percentage disapproving has also dropped, to 35.2%. This is quite possibly related to her ability to get pension reform passed, which helps those not covered by the private system.

However, she’s currently facing a host of other challenges, such as the Constitutional Court ruling that her morning-after pill distribution program was unconstitutional. She is also dealing with rising prices (12 month inflation is 8.5%) so has announced a voucher program for poor families.

Any rebound in the last half of her term will be good news for the Concertación in the next presidential election, especially since the right shows no signs of getting its collective act together.

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Key points in the Colombia FTA debate

The Bush administration has officially taken what’s been dubbed the “nuclear strategy” by sending the Colombia FTA to Congress for fast track consideration even though Congress is clearly skeptical. It must get an up or down vote within 90 days. Boz has a good summary and links.

For my readers who might be following the debate, here are the key points you need to know when discussing this at your next cocktail party.

• Passage of the FTA is the linchpin to the stability of all South America
• The FTA will “lead to a better life”
• If you oppose the FTA, you are “protectionist” and probably a closet socialist
• If you oppose the FTA, you are in league with Hugo Chávez (or at least an unwitting dupe)
  
• If you oppose the FTA, then you like drug trafficking
• Colombia has been benefiting too much from the current situation, so opposing the FTA means you don’t want to “level the playing field” for American workers.

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Shortages

I couldn’t help but juxtapose the two following news items:

--Cuba is privatizing to ease shortages

--Venezuela is nationalizing (or at least announcing nationalization) to ease shortages

This also highlights the changes in the Cuba-Venezuela relationship after Fidel’s departure. Hugo Chávez and Raúl Castro have a regular diplomatic, rather than a personal, relationship. With Raúl, Chávez does not have the same type of ideological soulmate.

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A good year for Political Science bloggers

First, Chris at Signifying Nothing announced his acceptance of a tenure track position, then Miguel at Pronto*, and now Professor Chaos--who coincidentally I knew from my M.A. program--has as well.

For anyone not in academia, the job market is a strange, stressful, and unpredictable thing, that leaves many people (including all three above, and also including me in the past) taking temporary (i.e. adjunct or visiting) positions while you work to get more publications out. The market itself can change considerably from year to year, simply depending on what departments happen to be hiring and what they happen to need.

So congratulations to all!

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Belated April Fool's?

Hugo Chávez claims he will not speak publicly about the hostage negotiations. I'm not sure he can do that without exploding.

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The politics of credible threat Part 4

In February I wrote about the many threats Chávez was making about oil and domestic nationalization, but not carrying out. He has now carried one out by nationalizing the cement industry. I hadn’t included that on my list, but he did threaten nationalization a year ago. The industry, he argues, is exporting too much and selling too little to the domestic market at a time of housing shortages.

The three main foreign players in Venezuela are Mexico's Cemex SAB, France's Lafarge SA and Switzerland's Holcim Ltd.

Holcim operates two cement plants in Venezuela with a production capacity of roughly 2.4 million tons of cement a year, while Cemex runs three plants that also produce about 2.4 million tons annually. Lafarge has two plants that produce 1.5 million tons a year.

Given the intense debate over food shortages and hoarding, at what point will he take aim at food producers? Or will he?

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Venezuelan dependence

Kay Bailey Hutchison, Texas Senator and now head of the Senate Republican Policy Committee (though fortunately not on any foreign policy-related committees) argues that Venezuela should perhaps be put on the State Department terrorist list. This is not remarkable, since a number of conservatives have argued the same, but she has her own special twist. Chávez threatens to cut off oil, but let’s call his bluff because if he cuts off exports to the U.S., he will be overthrown by the Venezuelan military.

While imposing additional sanctions on Venezuela could cause adverse short-term economic consequences, Mr. Chavez needs us more than we need him. Venezuelan oil has an extremely high-sulfur content, which requires special refineries to turn it into gasoline. Most of those refineries are in the Southern U.S. along the Gulf Coast. In short, Venezuela would have a very hard time finding other buyers if it loses its most important customer.

And with the increased willingness of Venezuela’s military to stand up to Mr. Chavez — not to mention his sinking popularity among the public — the United States is one customer Mr. Chavez can’t afford to lose.

I don’t recall the last time I saw this type of argument made so bluntly by a U.S. official. Or made so gleefully.

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JC Bradbury's The Baseball Economist

If you like baseball, then you would likely enjoy JC Bradbury’s The Baseball Economist: The Real Game Exposed. He is an economist at Kennesaw State University and also blogs at Sabernomics.

Each chapter has a different theme, and the general idea is to challenge conventional wisdom by using regression analysis and economic theory. Actually, he sometimes gets some really vitriolic comments on his blog because in baseball, like pretty much everywhere else, people hate having their core beliefs challenged.*

So, for example, he criticizes the use of batting average (and even batting average with runners in scoring position) and shows how OPS (on base percentage plus slugging percentage) does a much better job of predicting whether a given player will contribute to run scoring. He also argues that runs scored and RBIs are overrated because they depend so heavily on a player’s teammates.

Perhaps more controversial:

--having a power hitter “protect” you in the on-deck circle is a myth.

--Even if MLB is a monopoly, that’s good for fans: “Price discrimination by multi-price monopolists leads to higher profits for owners, but also more games at acceptable prices for fans” (p. 216).

There are also other fun chapters like why there are no left-handed catchers and how Leo Mazzone is not overrated.


* That includes me too. I still like statistics many people now call useless, or even bad, like stolen bases. I guess I am already getting somewhat old and crotchety.

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More on Ecuador

Ecuador is taking the border fumigation conflict with Colombia to the International Court of Justice, and has an international group of lawyers to make its case. The two countries had created commissions last year but they had not reached any agreements. This has, however, been a bone of contention for years, as chemicals don’t respect borders, and chemicals are an integral aspect of Plan Colombia.

The complaint has three elements:

First, to declare that Colombia violated Ecuadorian sovereignty

Second, to order Colombia in the future to stop fumigation at least ten kilometers from the border

Third, to order Colombia to pay reparations

This is a good move for Rafael Correa, especially since the Colombian government keeps putting out info from the laptops, all of which is juicy but unverified. So this serves to put Colombia back on the defensive. Combined with the Ecuadorian helicopter going into Colombian airspace, it’s a message to both Alvaro Uribe and to the Ecuadorian people.

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It's in the hole!

So Cuba wants more golf courses. I was trying to think of sports more associated with capitalism, and there aren’t many—a large amount of water used to create grass on which to hit a little ball with expensive sticks, with some villas and apartments on the side to boot.

The Cuban government has made various market-oriented reforms over the years, but this one struck me as symbolically relevant.

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The U.S. and crisis in Bolivia

Miguel and Blog From Bolivia note that the National Electoral Court (CNE) has not authorized any of the previously announced referenda, but that Santa Cruz is ignoring that fact and wants to push ahead with an autonomy vote. If it goes forward, it will almost guarantee violence.

I found it interesting that the EU very clearly said it would respect the CNE’s decision, and not recognize an illegal vote. The U.S. government, however, has said nothing (or at least I cannot find anything). When we think of the negative image of the U.S. in Latin America, this is a good example. The EU takes an unambiguous stand about a critical issue and the U.S. remains mum.

While searching, I ran across an interview Evo Morales just did with Al Jazeera. Here is his take:

You recently said that the United States government was pushing to try to turn Bolivia into a kind of Kosovo. What proof do you have of that?

First the American congressmen that visited me recently asked me to support that division of Kosovo. It's impossible that we can support the division of a country. Secondly, the conspiracy against my government is headed by the US ambassador.

USAID, with funds that come American tax payers, who think they are helping the Bolivian people, is using the money in a dirty campaign against my government and especially against me. They meet with NGOs and other groups here, always with the intention of conspiring. They offer them money on condition that they take part in the campaign against Evo Morales.

The mayor of a city, who recently visited me, told me he was offered money by the USAID agency to run as an opposition congressman. They even offered to pay for his campaign.

And the mayor told me that the people who work for the US agency go from house to house telling people that if they get rid of Evo Morales, they will have more money. If we wanted to document this we could. We are going to present the documents to prove this to the US Congress.

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We are now robo-worthy

North Carolina's primary is on May 6, and a May primary has usually meant the state's vote doesn't matter. This year, of course, is different, and polls show that Hillary Clinton has to work very hard to catch up to Obama in the state for our 134 delegates.

Accordingly, yesterday I received my first robo-call from the Clinton campaign, and this morning read that Chelsea herself will be visiting the Tar Heel State. Both candidates are starting to spend more time here, but Clinton is working extra hard. It's nice to matter for once!

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Ecuador and the FARC

Ecuador says that Franklin Aisalla, the Ecuadorian who was hanging out with Raúl Reyes, was in fact a member of the FARC and not just a poor locksmith who happened to be vacationing with guerrillas in the jungle. Ecuador’s own military intelligence carried out the investigation, so there is no conspiracy theory. Rafael Correa remains angry, saying that even though he was a member of the FARC, nothing justifies being killed by an attack from a foreign country.

Correa came out of the original crisis in a very strong position domestically. To what degree will the average Ecuadorian remain indignant given the revelation?

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U.S.-Colombia FTA or the end of life as we know it

It looks like the Bush Administration will soon push Congress to approve a free trade agreement with Colombia, and so more pro-FTA commentary is flowing.

It seems to me, though, that the administration is shooting itself in the foot with hyperbole. I am interested in hearing real debate about the FTA, but there won’t be any. President Bush himself has linked the FTA to defeating the FARC and countering Hugo Chávez. He even laid it out in his typical black and white terms:

As the recent standoff in the Andes shows, the region is facing an increasingly stark choice: to quietly accept the vision of the terrorists and the demagogues, or to actively support democratic leaders like President Uribe.

So pass the FTA or you support terrorism. What kind of monster would vote to “accept the visions of the terrorists”?

The U.S. Trade Representative is even more apocalyptic, to a degree that must make even FTA supporters cringe:

Leaders in the hemisphere and Latin America have said that the single most destabilizing factor in Latin America today may be the U.S. Congress's failure to ratify the Colombia Free Trade Agreement. That is more destabilizing today than anything that Colombia's neighbor Venezuela is doing or threatening to do— and that is saying a lot.

I don’t know who these “leaders” are, as I’ve not heard anyone making that sort of claim. But it seems that not passing an FTA with Colombia will destroy Latin America. What kind of a monster would vote “no” when it means wholesale destruction of the region?

By those standards, the WSJ’s Mary Anastasia O’Grady sounds almost rational when she agrees that an FTA will make Colombia just like Ireland, and that failure to approve an FTA will harm Colombia’s national security because other countries will have an FTA and it won’t.

What kind of a monster would refuse to allow Colombia to be just like Ireland and protect its national security?

UPDATE: If anyone is interested, here is a copy of the FTA.

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Patchwork laws

A federal court ruled that states cannot pass laws about passenger rights on delayed planes. The reason? Only the federal government has the right to make decisions about certain elements of airline travel.

Immigration falls into a similar category—after all, California’s Proposition 187 was nixed in part because a federal court said it interfered with the federal government’s exclusive right to make immigration policy.

In a statement, the Air Transport Association said the ruling vindicates its position that airline services are regulated by the federal government and that a "patchwork" of state and local measures would not benefit customers.

It is unfortunate that there is not more discussion of the current effects of state “patchwork” measures on immigration, which are definitely not benefiting any “customers.”

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Shining Path

Peruvian police were ambushed in the jungle by the “remnants” of the Shining Path. These days the Shining Path’s mission is to protect drug traffickers (and one of its remaining leaders was caught a few days ago).

Viva la revolución.

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Exporting obesity to Mexico

Mexico is now the second fattest country in the world. The U.S., of course, is first. This is the result of increased presence of American fast food in Mexico, and a move away from a more traditional--and quite healthy--Mexican diet. U.S. investment can make your country fatter.

Some Mexicans say there's less space on an already crowded Mexico City subway because riders are getting larger. At a flea market in the south of the city, vendors hawk clothes brought from the United States made for overweight individuals.

Wow.

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The military in Venezuela

Deborah Norden, “Civilian Authority Without Civilian Dominance? Assessing Venezuelan Political-Military Relations under Chávez.” Nueva Sociedad 213 (January-February 2008): 170-187.

Full text is public

ABSTRACT: Since taking power, Hugo Chávez has begun a process of transformation within which the military play a crucial role. In order to ensure his control of the military, Chávez has incorporated military personnel into his government, he has promoted loyal officers, given the military new responsibilities on the domestic front, and he has sought to create a series of shared values related to socialism and anti-imperialism. This has enabled him to consolidate a certain authority within the armed forces and maintain civilian control, but his domination must not be overestimated. The Venezuelan political system is undergoing a period of transition and, until it is completed, there can hardly be a truly stable relation between civilians and the military.

Deborah Norden has been researching civil-military relations in Latin America generally, and Venezuela specifically, for quite some time. I find this article particularly insightful because it looks at the convergence between the military’s perception of its role and what it is asked to do.* One might expect the Venezuelan military to be restive given political polarization in the country and its injection into politics, but Chávez has been very skillful at a) purging dissenting officers and b) explaining very clearly to the remaining ranks what their role in the country’s development will be. As she writes, “When the government has well-developed defense and security policies, and these are compatible with military policy goals, then both are likely to be more successful” (p. 171).

She argues that this can be a highly effective strategy, but it entails more “control” than “management” of the armed forces, because Chávez has not worked to establish solid bureaucratic capabilities to manage the military (it should be noted, however, that this latter point is true of almost every Latin American country). One important question is how Chávez’s strategies—especially the explicit inculcation of socialism into the military—would affect a future, non-socialist president.

She does not mention Bolivia, but I think it could provide useful comparative perspective. Despite its interventionist history the Bolivian military has remained firmly behind Evo Morales. So are there parallels between the management styles of the two presidents with regard to the armed forces? In the past few months, I’ve actually received emails from two separate Ph.D. students starting research on the Bolivian military, which remains woefully understudied—the same is true of Ecuador, yet both countries would help us better understand the military side of the political changes taking place in many Latin American countries.

* The divergence of the two helps explain why Chávez and many other officers became disillusioned in the 1980s.

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Coca fumigation in Colombia

The Washington Office on Latin America just published a study about fumigation of coca in Colombia. Here is the main conclusion:

The current strategy of attacking cultivation undermines the already precarious livelihoods of the Colombian peasants, settlers, indigenous peoples and Afro-Colombians who plant coca to survive, thereby increasing rather than lessening their reliance on coca. Aerial spraying with glyphosate and other chemicals is causing serious environmental, cultural and social damage. Another consequence is the repeated violation of rights that are well-established in international legislation, rights which the government has committed itself to safeguarding.

Are there alternatives to fumigation of crops for illicit use? Projects proposed and implemented by affected communities have shown that reducing coca through the stimulation of productive legal alternatives is possible, particularly when projects are supported by international cooperation and committed stakeholders and are consonant with the interests and know-how of local communities. Guaranteeing the sustainability of such projects is the key to offering a dignified life to thousands of rural Colombian families living in poverty. Only with viable alternatives in place can progress be made in lessening reliance on coca.

It is well worth the read, as it provides a clearly written summary of all the problems associated with aerial spraying, with a primary focus on how it affects the most vulnerable rural populations, and includes specific alternative policy suggestions to create incentives for peasants to grow something other than coca.

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Baseball in China

If baseball is going to flourish in China, then the Chinese government needs to figure some things out, as evidenced by events after the Dodgers-Padres game. For example, if a player wants to walk over and give some autographs to adoring fans, you should not instruct security guards to block him and prevent him from doing so, all the while refusing to explain why.

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Female voters and Bachelet

Mauricio Morales Quiroga, “La primera mujer presidenta de Chile: ¿Qué explicó el triunfo de Michelle Bachelet en las elecciones de 2005-2006?” Latin American Research Review 43, 1 (2008): 7-32.

Sorry, the full text is password protected.

ABSTRACT: For the first time in Chile, a woman triumphed in the presidential elections. We suggest that Bachelet's victory is explained, primarily, by her personal attributes. Chileans perceived her as the most trustworthy candidate and as one they could relate to, and they valued her qualifications as a possible governor. Furthermore, she was helped by a political and economic environment derived from her association with President Ricardo Lagos and the positive economic growth that Chile experienced during his administration. A crucial theme that spans the breadth of the article is that of "gender solidarity," which maintains that female support was a determinant in Bachelet's triumph. This is corroborated by polls on voting intentions and also by the final, municipal-level electoral results.

The idea that women—and especially poor women who are heads of households—were a determinant in Michelle Bachelet’s victory is not necessarily so earth shattering, though this article does a very nice job of using voting data to do a quantitative study of who voted for her.

For me, the more intriguing issue is to think about the implications. In particular, for the next LASA I will (hopefully) be on a panel dedicated to Chilean politics (in addition to the workshop on blogging) and I plan on doing a paper about the slow crumbling of the Concertación. Since it is well over a year away, exactly how I will approach this remains remains very much in the tentative stage.

In the context of this article, what occurs to me is that if women, and especially poor women, vaulted Bachelet into the presidency, then failing to pass legislation to help that constituency would foster quite a backlash. Many Bachelet supporters may be ambivalent about the Concertación, but support it because they like her personally. So if she doesn’t perform, then they reject both her as president and the coalition.

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Unconditional aid

The U.S. is really ticked that China provides aid to Latin America without strings attached. I am trying to sort through the multiple ironies, hypocrisies, and contradictions implied in that criticism, but there are too many and it makes my head hurt.

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Recent murders in Colombia

Adam Isacson discusses the spate of threats against and murders of labor and human rights activists immediately following the March 6 protests in Colombia (four were killed that week). The upshot is that since Alvaro Uribe (and particularly his close advisor José Obdulio Gaviria) made a point of rejecting the protests and even equating them with the FARC, they gave the green light to paramilitaries to attack. If you can dehumanize protesters by labeling them terrorists, then you can rationalize doing anything.

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The OAS response

The OAS has issued a draft resolution regarding the Colombia-Ecuador incident, which does not say all that much. It “rejects” the Colombian incursion, asserting that it violated Articles 19 and 21 of the OAS Charter, but also “takes note” of Colombia’s apology. It then suggests creating “mechanisms” and “measures” to foster better bilateral relations. All the OAS documents surrounding the incident can be found here.

More interesting is the report of the commission that went to Ecuador and Colombia. Regarding the laptops:

[T]he OAS Secretary General and some Commission members held a brief meeting with members of INTERPOL who had come to Colombia at the request of that country’s government to conduct an expert examination of three computers, three USBs (portable memory), and three hard disks, which, according to the Colombian officials, had been found in the FARC camp. The INTERPOL delegates, accompanied by officials from the Administrative Security Department (DAS), informed the Commission that the results of their investigation would be ready in late April (p. 5).

Now, as for the differing versions of events:

The Government of Colombia indicates that the operation was initially planned to take place in Colombian territory because, according to intelligence information, Raúl Reyes was going to be at that camp that night. At 22:30 hours on Friday, February 29, they received human intelligence information to the effect that Raúl Reyes was at a camp located in Ecuadorian territory. For that reason they decided to carry out a dual operation on both of the identified camps. The two operations were carried out using different planes. During its flight over the area, the Commission was shown the location of the camp on Colombian territory and a map showing where the bombs were released [See Annex 6 – List of documents received by the Commission].

The Government of Ecuador expresses doubts about the –in its view—very short period of time in which the Colombian authorities decided to carry out the operation and regards it as unlikely that it was done on the basis of human intelligence data because of the precision of the bombing. The Government of Ecuador also states that, according to the investigation carried out by its Air Force technical staff, six 500-pound GBU12 bombs were dropped by planes flying from South to North and four more were dropped by planes flying in a North-South direction, from Ecuadorian air space. It also points out that, judging by the remains of the bombs found at the camp, their delivery required advanced technology, which, they say, the Colombian Air Force does not possess (p. 6)

From what I see, however, the OAS is not going to verify which version is accurate. Instead, it seeks to move forward and improve relations. But if we want to establish confidence, isn’t it necessary to determine the truth of the incident first?

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Salvadorans in the U.S.

I've mentioned my former student Gabriel Serrano before—here is a short profile of him. It is a great story about fighting for freedom of expression in a country controlled by a very conservative elite.

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Getting a Ph.D.

Chris Lawrence has good suggestions for undergraduates considering a Ph.D. in Political Science, with links to some really interesting discussions by people applying to graduate school. One major source of debate is needing to get a Ph.D. from a “top 25” school in order to get a “good job,” which then launched comments about what is “top 25.” In my view, it makes more sense to look at the school’s website and ask their graduate coordinator about what their placement record is—you can then see what types of jobs you would likely get, and make your decision accordingly. So I agree with Chris, who highlighted one response in particular from a long thread:

Whatever the rank of your program, if you have full funding and they have a decent placement record, strong faculty, and you think you can get the kind of training you want, then go.

And always keep in mind that a Ph.D. takes a long time, you’ll have little money for quite a while, and then the job market is stressful and unpredictable. In many ways it’s a weird profession.

Somewhat related, Dr. Crazy has a long post on the dynamics of publishing once you have a tenure-track position. It doesn’t fit me perfectly (i.e. all my journal submissions have been “cold”) but is still worth a look.

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State reactions to immigration

Ever since Congress abdicated its responsibility and refused to pass immigration reform, numerous state and local governments have been passing their own legislation, often restrictive. Now, however, lawmakers in both Arizona and Colorado want to create their own guest worker programs to deal with labor shortage.

Ironically, Arizona and Colorado are two states that have been at the forefront of punitive legislation (Tom Tancredo is of course from Colorado). Therefore some members of the legislature (even Republicans, I should point out, as this is not always a clearly partisan issue) are trying to counter restrictive legislation they already passed.

Labor rights groups oppose the idea because they are concerned that state-level guest worker programs will lack sufficient protection for the workers (some opponents may also be against guest workers programs on principle).

Ultimately, this particular proposal is currently a moot point, because it would entail states taking over federal duties and therefore is not constitutional, unless Congress expressly delegates that duty. This may simply be a trial balloon--after all, it has not gone up for a vote--but it is yet another example of what a mess Congress has made.

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Making a list and checking it twice

Some Congressional Republicans have proposed a resolution to put Venezuela on the state sponsor of terrorism list. What we should note, however, is that these particular Republicans are the usual suspects of anti-Castro policy (e.g. Connie Mack and Ileana Ros-Lehtinen). As a result, this doesn’t tell us much about how Congress as a whole will respond.

What virtually no one seems to be discussing is the cost that will be borne by U.S. consumers at a time of recession and in an election year if trade with Venezuela is severely restricted. The average person is only vaguely interested in Hugo Chávez, but is extremely interested in the cost of gas and food. So who will they blame?

Here is the text of the resolution.

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Colombia-Venezuela relations

Hugo Chávez called Alvaro Uribe and the two agreed to meet soon, both to discuss bilateral relations but also to improve the personal relationship between the two. The latter is especially important, because at this point Chávez has insulted Uribe in so many ways that he’d need a thesaurus to find a new one.

Bubbling right under the surface are the laptops, which are currently being examined by Interpol, and Condoleezza Rice’s constant hinting about putting Venezuela on the terrorist list (what is the current Vegas line on this?). Doing that will wreck dialogue between Venezuela and Colombia while also strengthening Chávez at home where, as Boz points out, his numbers aren’t currently too high.

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No Argentina for you!

Condoleezza Rice is heading off to Brazil and Chile, and the NYT notes how she is snubbing Argentina for its ties to Venezuela. Last month Clarín reported that Thomas Shannon would be visiting Argentina before long, but apparently that didn’t pan out (at least yet—the article noted that no date had been set).

I think the U.S.-Argentine relationship is particularly interesting. The two governments are wary of each other but not exactly antagonistic. Each sees a benefit to being proper but not too friendly, but each sends a variety of signals--sometimes positive, sometimes negative--all the time.

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Google Reader

Steven Taylor had mentioned using shared items in Google Reader--for a variety of reasons I had been thinking of switching from Newsgator, and finally did so. I am going to experiment with shared items, which are links to blog posts I happen to find interesting but don't necessarily blog about myself--the idea is to give as much exposure as possible to different blogs. You can click here to see them. I imagine I won't generally add more than one a day at most.

Actually, now I see that I can just create a widget on the right.

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Framing remittances

There is a new IADB report on remittances to Latin America, reporting that they are up to $66.5 billion, a 7% increase from last year, which is a lower percentage increase than in recent years. Remittances to Brazil actually dropped, and the authors cite a stronger Brazilian economy and currency. However, in Honduras remittances constitute a staggering 25% of GNP (Haiti and Guyana are even higher) and remittances to Central America increased 11% overall.

What I found most curious, though, was the way in which the media chose to frame it. The absolute amount continues to rise, so it is increasingly difficult to keep up the massive percentage increases year to year, regardless of immigration policy or other factors.

So the Miami Herald headline is: “Migrants’ Money Flow Home Slackens”

But the Arizona Republic has: “Migrants Still Sending Vast Sums Back to Latin America”

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Renewed liberation theology?

Thanks to my student Kelby for pointing out that the Vatican has updated its list of deadly sins and that three of them sound surprisingly like liberation theology:

1. “Bioethical” violations such as birth control

2. “Morally dubious” experiments such as stem cell research

3. Drug abuse

4. Polluting the environment

5. Contributing to widening divide between rich and poor

6. Excessive wealth

7. Creating poverty

As a staunch defender of “traditional” Catholic values, over twenty years ago Cardinal Ratzinger had made his view on liberation theology clear: “An analysis of the phenomenon of liberation theology reveals that it constitutes a fundamental threat to the faith of the Church.”

But if the last three (or really even four) items are deadly sins, then by extension capitalism—and the U.S. effort to promote it--is also sinful. This is what Latin American priests were saying decades ago. It is, strangely enough, just a tiny step from saying that the only virtuous ideology is socialism, or at least democratic socialism. It is also just a tiny step from asking good Catholics to denounce any government that is sinful, e.g. capitalist.

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