Venezuela documents

Boz pointed out on Twitter that the State Department has declassified a bunch of documents related to Venezuela.  Interesting stuff to look through, and there are lots of them.  The very first document was the emphatic statement by the Defense Minister in February 1992 that there was no coup attempt.  No one really believed that, and there are tons of documents showing how the U.S. was trying to figure out what was going on (and seemingly doing a pretty good job of doing so).  Then there are more going all the way up to 2004, and you can see what I would call cautious alarm turn to more pointed criticism over time.

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Brazil and the Middle East

Brazil has recognized the Palestinian state, based on the borders right before the 1967 Six Day War.  A quick search suggests that in Latin America only Cuba and Nicaragua recognize the Palestinian state (though I am happy to be corrected if that is wrong).

This is all part of Brazil's (and especially Lula's) effort to be a player in the Middle East.  The last effort (with Turkey) did not work out so well, but Brazil is placing itself in counterpoint to the United States because it wants to mediate but from a more pro-Palestinian perspective.  At the very least, whatever one thinks of it, Brazil is harder and harder to ignore in the Middle East.

Aside from the diplomatic questions, there is also the unknown of whether Dilma Rousseff has the same level of interest as Lula in the Middle East.

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Mexico Wikileaks

Malcolm Beith has a take on the Mexico Wikileaks that is worth reading.  I agree with his assessment that the media portrayal is overblown, with headlines about "lost faith" or "fear."  There is certainly concern, but I would be much more alarmed if there was no concern. Corruption, bureaucratic infighting, connections to narcotraffickers, and an army ill-equipped to fight a domestic enemy are all serious--and well known--problems.   I am glad U.S. officials are talking about it openly, and I doubt this will have much of a negative impact on Mexican officials, who are even more acutely aware of those problems.

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Miner crisis is fully milked

From Adimark: remember that approval bump Sebastián Piñera got from the miner crisis?  Poof, it is gone, and he is back to where he was prior.  His November approval was 50%, down from 63% last month.  Conventional wisdom is that he fell because of a scandal regarding his intervention in the election of the president of the National Association of Professional Football (ANFP).

Approval of the coalitions are still low, though the Coalition for Change (center-right and right) is at 43%, which is not too bad given the numbers in recent years.  The Concertación is at 31%.

Understanding presidential approval in Chile is difficult, in large part because it does not follow the economy in the ways predicted by the academic literature.

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Wikileaks Argentina

Is it just me, or is the quality of cables to and from Buenos Aires particularly erratic, which is ironic because some of the cables discuss the erratic nature of the Kirchners?  The State Department wants to know about Néstor Kirchner's gastrointestinal problems, and the embassy writes about how the government is going to fall (even before Kirchner's death).  The embassy also writes a gossipy note with a misspelled title.  Then we get a balanced, detailed discussion of Cristina Fernández's view of the economy.

What struck me about these cables as well is that they provide almost no context.  They cite people with very clear political agendas without making them explicit, which will only confuse those who are trying to make sense of them.  From an academic point of view, I also wish there was some--even just a tiny bit--of national context in terms of, say, polling data.  So a former ally of the Kirchners makes a prediction, but does that jibe with current polls?

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Wikileaks Venezuela

From the U.S. Embassy in Caracas, a great quote:

A plain-spoken nuclear physicist told 
Econoff that those spreading rumors that Venezuela is helping 
third countries (i.e. Iran) develop atomic bombs "are full of 
(expletive)." He said Venezuela is currently unable to 
provide such assistance particularly as the Chavez 
administration "does not trust scientists."

Interestingly, this is rather like the long cable on Honduras, where diplomats contradict extravagant claims yet are mostly ignored.

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Wikileaks Bolivia

"Instead of weakening themselves by domestic dissensions the Spanish race in these Republics have every motive for union and harmony.  They nearly all have an enemy within their own bosoms burning for vengeance on account of the supposed wrong of centuries, and ever ready, when a favorable opportunity may offer, to expel or exterminate the descendants of their conquerors...In Bolivia it is understood that three fourths of the inhabitants belong to the Indian race.  How unfortunate it is that, under these circumstances, the Spanish race there should be weakening themselves by warring with each other."

Secretary of State James Buchanan to U.S. Chargé John Appleton, June 1, 1848

Quoted in William R. Manning, Diplomatic Correspondence of the United States, Inter-American Affairs, 1831-1860 (Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1932): p. 4.

How different will a 2009 cable be?

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Venezuela and Mercosur

Venezuela reportedly will now get admittance to Mercosur, after waiting four years for member legislatures to approve it.  Brazil had been a hold out until recently, and the last is now Paraguay.  A few thoughts:

First, wow.  Has horse trading ever been this open?  The Liberal Party crows about the ambassadorial, etc. positions it gets in return.  You don't see that in public too often, though obviously it still happens.

Second, this sentence really sums up one of Fernando Lugo's problems, particularly in a system as oligarchic as Paraguay's: "Lugo has three votes that respond to him."  That is out of 45 in the Senate.

Third, although Hugo Chávez has been wanting this for quite some time, I don't think it gives him any more of a platform than he already has.

Fourth, there is a pot/kettle dynamic with some Colorado senators saying Chávez is too anti-democratic to join.

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Blame for economic crisis

From the Latin American Public Opinion Project, some curious numbers.  The global economic crisis came as a result of serious problems in the developed world, particularly the United States.  But Latin Americans who believe there is a crisis tend to look inward.

Attributions of Blame for the Crisis, Among Those Perceiving a Crisis

Previous administration: 21.5%
Current administration: 18.9%
Country's economic system: 13.3%
Ourselves, citizens of this country: 12.7%
Do not know: 11.5%
Rich countries: 7.8%
Rich people of our country: 7.4%
Problems of democracy: 4.3%
Other: 2.6%

Looking inward is a natural instinct, though no Latin American government created the crisis, and certainly the citizens of a particular country did not either.  Governments may be praised or blamed for their responses, but may be getting unfair criticism in terms of creating the crisis in the first place.

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Honduras Wikileak

From Wikileaks, here is a July 24, 2009 cable from Ambassador Hugo Llorens in Honduras to Washington with an outline of the developing coup.  I think it is a good analysis, looking at both sides and concluding without a doubt that Mel Zelaya's removal was both illegitimate and illegal.  (I wonder, though, why it took almost a month to write the report--why not just read my blog?)

No matter what the merits of the case against Zelaya, his forced removal by the military was clearly illegal, and Micheletti's ascendance as "interim president" was totally illegitimate.

This only reinforces what we already knew.  The Obama administration believed there was a coup and it was totally illegitimate, but chose not to press the issue too hard and to remain publicly vague about its interpretation of the facts.

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Bob Woodward's Obama's Wars

I read Bob Woodward's Obama's Wars.  I am a sucker for this type of light, insider scoop book (e.g. see Game Change) but this one was disappointing even for the genre.  It can be summed up as follows: there were meetings, lots of meetings, with lots of arguing about troop numbers and periodic leaking.  Quite often, these meetings were long and dull.  After months of such meetings, President Obama decided on the troop levels.

I should note, though, that in a way Woodward has done the public a service in the sense of showing that policy making is not always an exciting West Wing experience.  Instead, it is a grinding experience with major players elbowing each other for influence.  Some of the more human interest stuff was already evident in places like the Rolling Stone interview with Stanley McChrystal so I didn't feel I learned much new about the internal divisions in the White House.  Now the Wikileaks cables will be even juicier about the diplomatic side.

Interestingly, my impression is that the book is the most positive about Joe Biden, who was always skeptical about questionable claims (such as the ability to quickly train 400,000 Afghan security forces) and willing to do so openly, then offer alternate suggestions.  On the other hand, the broad wlllingness by everyone to stand by goals that everyone seemed to know were unrealistic is a depressing reality.

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Peru and sadness

From Peruvian President Alan García, the strangest argument yet about why a president might be unpopular:

Garcia tells Radioprogramas that an inbred national melancholy must be to blame for his low approval ratings at a time when the economy is booming.

Garcia tells the radio station Saturday that "We are what we are: sad, distrustful ... We have a natural lack of trust." He says that in contrast, Brazilians "have another sort of nature, joyful and sunny." 

The idea that the positive effects of economic growth in Peru are not felt much by a majority seems not to occur to him.  Conversely, Chileans loved Michelle Bachelet even as the economic tanked, but I don't think many Chileans would ascribe that to their innate national bounciness.

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Americans and DREAM

There are a number of issues I come back to over and over again.  One of them is that Americans do not care as much about immigration as politicians and the media claim (also discussed in my forthcoming at any second book, Irresistible Forces).  Right now the DREAM Act is being debated, and through CNN we have this nugget from a Gallup poll:

Similarly, the country is less concerned with Congress acting on the DREAM Act, which would provide a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants living in the U.S. who were brought to the country as children. Thirty-eight percent say it is not too/not at all important.

Immigration restrictionism is not as popular as it appears, or at least it does not rile people up quite as much as portrayed.  That increases--albeit minimally--the chances of passage.

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Electoral reform in Chile

A new poll in Chile shows support for some electoral reform, particularly for voting to be voluntary (77%).  Meanwhile, 60% support making registration automatic once you become 18 years old.  The same percentage supports allowing Chileans to vote from abroad.  These are all reforms currently under discussion, though voting abroad has been opposed by the right, on the assumption that a majority of Chileans living in other countries fled the military government and therefore would vote for the Concertación.

Unfortunately, the poll does not seem to specifically address the binomial system, which as I've noted before seems more open to discussion than in the past.  It is not at all clear to me that Chileans have a strong preference about it.

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Obama interview

The Spanish paper El País interviewed Barack Obama, and there was a Latin America question that he proceeded to dodge, though the interviewer blew it by asking two questions at once.  Obama apparently didn't want to talk about Cuba.

P. Desde su perspectiva, ¿qué papel le ve a España en el futuro de Cuba y, en general, en las relaciones de Estados Unidos con América Latina?

R. Dados los profundos lazos históricos, culturales, económicos y familiares que tanto Estados Unidos como España tienen con los países de América, existe una amplia gama de oportunidades de que nuestros dos países trabajen juntos en objetivos compartidos. España es un aliado valioso en asuntos fundamentales de América Latina, como la defensa los valores democráticos, el diseño de un futuro de energías limpias o la seguridad de los ciudadanos en su día a día. Hemos trabajado con el presidente Zapatero en estos asuntos y esperamos seguir haciéndolo.

And how is Spain involved in the "day to day security" of Latin Americans?  If anything, it shows he is barely thinking about the region.

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I was only DREAMing

Harry Reid wants to force a vote on the DREAM Act, so that either a) it will pass; or b) Republicans will have to be on record again as defeating it.  Two thoughts:

First, a pet peeve of mine.  Senator John Cornyn complained that Reid was "playing politics."  I always get annoyed when I read that, because politicians are elected precisely to play politics.  We have certain goals, and we elect them to achieve those goals.  Someone who refused to play politics would not get much done.

Second, I see this as potentially more harmful for Democrats than Republicans.  As I've written over and over, there are only so many times Democrats can introduce losing immigration bills before people lose faith in their willingness to push successfully for passage.  The stance of Republicans is clear, to the point that another vote on the DREAM Act won't make them look worse.

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Arizona and Latin America

An article in USA Today highlights a certain of confusion about immigration and federalism.  In this case, the main argument is that the Arizona immigration law is straining U.S.-Latin American relations.  But a closer look suggests that countries with already strained relations (quoting an official from Ecuador) feel that way, while countries with smoother relations (a Brazilian is quoted) disagree.

A senior official with the Brazilian Embassy who was not authorized to be quoted by name said that country's relationship with the United States has not been harmed because the Obama administration has not only spoken out against the law but initiated the lawsuit that halted its implementation.

The Obama administration has fought the Arizona law, so it is hard to see a country changing its position vis-a-vis the administration as a result.  What would more likely fall into that category is continued unwillingness to push for immigration reform.

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Mexico and the military

In March I wrote I was feeling optimistic because the U.S. and Mexican governments were accepting the fact that a military-centric approach to the drug war was not working very well, and so they needed a broader policy that included strengthening civilian law enforcement.  Now the Mexican government is doing an about face and is going to deploy the army again in Ciudad Juárez, while the police will merely do "some things" (algunas cosas).

Since the government already conceded that using the army did not work well before, it is not surprising that thus far it has offered no real justification.  If it did not work as intended before, why would it do so now?

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Colombia and Venezuela

President Juan Manuel Santos has a drug trafficker, Walid García, wanted both by Venezuela and the United States, and is extraditing him to Venezuela.  Fascinating move, and obviously he feels convinced that he will face justice there.

Also of note is the fact that the drug trafficker himself, as well as many opponents of the Chávez government, argues that Chávez is by extension tied to drugs.

On my payroll I had [government] ministers, the siblings of ministers, generals, admirals, rear admirals, colonels and five deputies from the National Assembly, each of whom I gave a late-model car to," the newspaper quoted him as saying.

"If I am a narcotrafficker, the whole Chavez government is a narcotrafficker.

Makled also has said he contributed $2 million to Chavez for a political campaign.

True, drug-related corruption is deeply entrenched in a number of Latin American countries.  Extrapolating to the entire government, and to the administration itself, is not nearly so clear.  Few, for example, would accuse Felipe Calderón (or Alvaro Uribe, for that matter) of complicity.  The overall point, though, is that clearly Santos feels comfortable, and that is a very different turn for Venezuelan-Colombian relations.

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Rox Ghosh's Nineteenth Street NW

I read Rex Ghosh's Nineteenth Street NW, which is a financial thriller and perfect for a long trip.  The plot revolves around a group of people from an unnamed developing country who use both violence and a sophisticated plan to bring down the economies of the developed world.  Ghosh himself has an Economics Ph.D. from Harvard and has worked with international financial institutions.

The plot is very well paced, but the book has the added benefit of going into issues like how economists at the IMF view countries as sources of analysis, unconcerned about the effects their policies have on average people.  They disguise the policies with terms like "fiscal retrenchment" and "labor market flexibility," and are concerned mainly with academic publications.  On the flip side, he also examines the mindset of terrorists who are fighting against those policies, but with similar disregard for human life.  The main character wants to use economics rather than bombs because she does not want to kill anyone, but ultimately it is clear this is a cop out.

The book also has an afterword where Ghosh explains the economics behind the action in the book, and how the economies of developed countries are very vulnerable in a number of different ways.  Attacking the economy can actually be far more devastating than a bomb.

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Paper presentation

Today I will be presenting my paper, "Consensus with Conflict: The Rise of President Bachelet and the Fall of the Concertación," co-authored with Silvia Borzutzky.  This is currently a topic of much debate in Chile, as everyone tries to figure out exactly why the 2009 election turned out the way it did.  Along these lines I recommend a brand new edited volume by Mauricio Morales and Patricio Navia, El sismo electoral de 2009: Cambio y continuidad de las preferencias políticas de los chileno (Santiago: Ediciones Universidad Diego Portales, 2010).  The last chapter in particular discusses how Chileans like individual candidates but not parties.

Thus, we end up with a political context in which electoral laws require parties to form coalitions and stay together, but people don't like them.  One lesson from Bachelet is that no matter how popular Sebastián Piñera gets, that will not necessarily translate into momentum for the presidential candidate of the right.

On a related point, I have heard multiple times here about how the Concertación's leadership simply doesn't know what to do next.  Strangely enough, that doesn't mean they can't win the next election.  The right was similarly clueless but Piñera won.

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Chilean political science

At the ACCP, I attended an interesting round table on the state of Chilean political science.  One of the most interesting points coincides with the ongoing academic debate in the U.S. about what political scientists should be doing.  In the past because of the dictatorship, Chilean political scientists were activists, almost by definition.  They had particular political points to make.  Now, the model has changed dramatically, so for example when there are presidential commissions to examine certain political issues, very few members are political scientists.  They are increasingly being seen as too narrowly focused to contribute to debates on public policy.  They are "professional" rather than "political."

This issue has been raised so many times with regard to the United States, but this is the first time I've seen it elsewhere.

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Chile and globalization

When I first came to Chile fourteen years ago, I was struck by the number of American chain restaurants and businesses in the middle class area where I lived (Nuñoa).  In the past, say, 5-7 years, however, I have not noticed any more growth in that respect but rather a drastic increase in the number of Asian restaurants, particularly sushi but also Chinese.  Some are hole in the wall places, not just high-end.

I admit freely that this is a Thomas Friedamesque post in the worst sense, where I generalize from observations based on chatting with friends, taking long walks, and/or riding in taxis.  But I am not aware of an increase of migration from Asia, so it would seem more related to the concerted efforts the Lagos and Bachelet governments made to connect economically and diplomatically to Asia.  Chile and China even recently had high level naval talks.  Globalization in Chile is not just about Big Macs and Pizza Hut.

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ACCP

I leave later today for the Chilean Political Science Association conference, where I will be presenting a paper on, surprisingly enough, Chilean politics.  I will ponder important questions such as, "Do they still play muzak in the pedestrian shopping area downtown?"

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Civil-military relations in Venezuela

A Major General in the Venezuelan army says the institution will not accept the victory of an opposition candidate in the next presidential election.  It is the sort of statement that should immediately result in the forced retirement of the officer.  It is, in fact, a statement that goes contrary to the Venezuelan constitution.  From article 328 about the military's role:

En el cumplimiento de sus funciones, está al servicio exclusivo de la Nación y en ningún caso al de persona o parcialidad política alguna.

It should go without saying that the job of the armed forces is not to pick and choose what president its leadership wants (though, depending on the country, they may cast their own individual vote for whomever they want).  It most certainly should not be issuing threats about refusing to accept the results of democratic elections.

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Immigration backlog

I bring this up periodically, and wish the debate on immigration enforcement addressed it, but it so rarely does.  There is currently a backlog of 261,083 cases.  The Las Vegas court alone has a 2,080 case backlog, and a case right now would not come before a judge until around July 2011.  Anecdotally, I know that the Charlotte immigration court has a very similar situation.

From a normative perspective, this is cruel.  Even people who feel their case is very strong must have this hanging over their heads for months and months, causing tremendous stress on them and everyone they know.

From an enforcement perspective, this is a disaster.  The system is simply not currently constructed to handle it.

From an economic perspective, a well-functioning system will cost a lot.  A lot.

From a policy perspective, "enforcement" is a deceptive term.  Policy makers seem unwilling to acknowledge the fact that an expanded ICE presence means more removal proceedings.  The public has the false idea that undocumented immigrants are simply picked up and shipped off.

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Prohibition

Language matters in politics.  In particular, it is useful from a strategic point of view to connect policies or people with demonized words.  If you make that connection well enough, then you can start changing public perceptions.  That came to mind when I saw this op-ed in the Houston Chronicle calling on Latin America to legalize drugs--or at least marijuana--as a way to reduce violence.  The very first sentence uses the word "prohibitionist" and then uses term two more times in a short article.

Prohibition, of course, refers to the period between 1920 and 1933 when alcohol was made illegal in the United States.  The term is now pejorative and conjures up images of expanded criminal activity and widespread flouting of the law.  So it is useful for those who want legalization of drugs to try and connect current laws with prohibition.  You thereby pave the way to make such a policy seem less shocking.

Popular support, both in the United States and Latin America, remains weak.  But I do not remember any time when the issue was discussed this widely.

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Immigration in the new House

This could get ugly quickly.  It may serve to start answering the question of whether Republicans care about the Latino vote.

A newly empowered House GOP lawmaker said he hopes to advance legislation to end the right of U.S. citizenship for the children of illegal immigrants who are born in the United States. 

Rep. Steve King (R-Iowa), a staunch opponent of illegal immigration who will become chairman of a key subcommittee handling immigration rules, said that he thinks he'll be able to pass a bill out of the House to end the Constitution's birthright citizenship for U.S.-born children of illegal immigrants.

This is unlikely to play well to the non-Latino general public, which is generally not eager to mess with the constitution, and since this issue is tangential to issues that polls show are of most concern.

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To golf or not to golf?

The Cuban government decided over two years ago that it wanted more golf courses, then offered up 99 year leases for luxury golf development.  The idea was to bring in revenue and provide security for foreign investors.  So it is interesting that now, Hugo Chávez wants to seize golf courses in Venezuela because of their association with the rich, then build public housing on them.

Sport has so often been connected to ideology.  In these particular cases, golf is really symbolic of the divergent paths Cuba and Venezuela are taking.

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Approving of Piñera

This is why Sebastián Piñera milked the mining disaster.  Adimark has his approval rating jumping from 53 to 63 percent, while disapproval fell from 32 to 26 percent.  The days of talking about his stagnant numbers are over, at least for now.  Plus, 64 percent approve of the way he is handling the economy, though numbers are much lower for crime and health care.

What the mining crisis also did was drastically increase public recognition of cabinet members.  This could bode well for the right as it can use the rest of Piñera's term to groom potential new candidates.  The Concertación really stumbled in that regard when it put Eduardo Frei up as a candidate.

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The midterm elections and Latin America

Current numbers for Congress show a Republican majority in the House and a Democratic majority in the Senate.  Here are some initial thoughts on how this may affect Latin America.

First, U.S.-Latin American relations won't change drastically.  Many issues, such as Cuba or immigration, were not being reformed by Democrats even when they had the majority.

Second, immigration reform faces a very uphill battle for the next two years.  Success hinges largely on Republican perceptions of the long-term impact of anti-immigrant rhetoric on current and future Latino voters.

Third, the Colombia and Panama free trade agreements will possibly get new life.  The Obama administration has shown signs it is willing to sign them, and this could be a carrot the administration could use to gain Republican support for other issues.

Fourth, Venezuela is a wild card.  Particularly with its relationship with Iran, there are hawks in the House that would like sanctions of some sort.  It seems unlikely they would pass, and in fact our main regional ally, Colombian President Santos, is moving in the exact opposite direction.

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Arizona and immigration myths

The Arizona law is being heard in a San Francisco federal appeals court.  I repeat myself endlessly about immigration myths, but they are so pervasive.

From the Los Angeles Times:

John J. Bouma, who represented Arizona in the case, told the court that the border state was suffering from serious crimes committed by illegal immigrants who, once in the country, are never sent back.

Wrong on both counts.  First, research shows that undocumented immigrants commit fewer crimes.  Second, deportations are at an all time high.  So they don't commit crimes, but are still deported.

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Calderón's drug policies

In my post from Friday, Pablo from The Cross Culturalist pointed to this poll in Milenio to counter the argument that Felipe Calderón's anti-drug policies are unpopular.  Here is the relevant question:

Aprueba o desaprueba la lucha contra el narcotráfico que se está dando ahora en el país?

My translation: Do you approve or disapprove of the fight against narcotrafficking that the country is currently undergoing?

With that question, 69.3 percent approve and 24.7 disapprove.  So if 69.3 percent approve, why is the Calderón administration so concerned that no one approves?  At least for this particular poll, I would argue that the question is too vague to tell us much.  That an overwhelming percentage believe "the fight" is a good thing is not necessarily an indicator that "the specific measures of the Calderón administration" are equally popular.

Otherwise we have a situation where a president grossly underestimates the popularity of one of his major policies. That, as you might guess, is not very common.

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Shoot the messenger

From the NYT: when things go bad, just claim that your message is not being sent correctly.  Felipe Calderón perhaps learned that from George W. Bush and now Barack Obama as well.  It's not that people don't like your policies, it's that they don't understand them well enough:

The administration of President Felipe Calderón has not shown signs of shifting tactics. Rather, his aides believe the problem is that his message — that the violence is a sign that progress is being made — has not been delivered well. There has been a shake-up in his communication staff to improve it.

Shoot your messenger, and all will be well.

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Succession suppression

The death of former president Néstor Kirchner is setting off a political earthquake in Argentina.  InfoLatam has a rundown on the power vacuum that Kirchner's death created, and there is no doubt that similar such analyses will be proliferating quickly.  Kirchner was such a force that questions will be raised not only about the leadership of the Partido Justicialista but also the 2011 presidential election.  He was widely seen as the future candidate, and now presumably Cristina Fernández will run for re-election.

A September poll had President Fernández with improved approval ratings, but still under 40 percent, whereas Kirchner's were routinely high.  She has simply never reached the levels of popularity that Kirchner enjoyed.  She has also faced the constant nuisance of a vice president who casts tie breaking votes against her.  From a strictly political perspective (not even taking into consideration the terrible personal toll this will take on her) she faces an even more difficult political context without his support.

As Steven Levitsky has argued, the reason the party has endured is because it is incredibly flexible, without a rigid hierarchy.  So the party structure is strong, but allows for movement within it.  And really, Kirchner was a relative unknown and became a political powerhouse, displacing Carlos Menem (who had pretty well self-destructed by that time) so someone else may well step into the vacuum and displace the Fernández-Kirchner machine.

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Corruption perception in Latin America

Transparency International released its annual Corruption Perception Index.  Of interest is the fact that Chile is perceived as less corrupt than the United States (though both are within a similar "confidence range" so the ranking is not as precise as it appears).  The Latin American Herald Tribune also notes that despite all its problems, Ecuador has improved significantly.  Meanwhile, Venezuela is near the bottom of the list again, though I must say that regardless of how corrupt the public sector is, I have a hard time believing it is more corrupt than the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and virtually the same as Sudan.

With all the error that can be introduced into them, such surveys do of course need to be taken with a grain of salt.  In fact, the regional director for the Americas said the following:

For its part, Cuba, which historically has been among the least corrupt nations in Latin America, fell from its 4.4 points last year to 3.7, and dropped eight places to No. 69.

In that regard, Salas urged a certain caution, since the sources consulted provide contradictory figures and the result could be due to a “technical” matter.

That could apply to any country, so an unspecified "technical" matter could move countries up and down.

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Cuba lobby

Changes in attitude of the Cuban-American community in Miami has been evident for some time, and during the 2008 campaign I noted how the Cuban American National Foundation welcomed Barack Obama's moderate message.  Nicky Pear at the Council on Hemispheric Affairs has a good summary of these changes, pointing to a number of specific events that pushed CANF in new directions.

All sides of the three-way relationship seem to be accepting the need for at least an element of pragmatism. It is surely time for the U.S. to continue down this path and make the long overdue steps necessary to put an end to its counterproductive and highly damaging isolationist policy towards Cuba.

Yet it is also true that once in office, Obama has done very little to change U.S. policy, and he recently argued that the U.S. would not change anything unless Cuba liberalized its economy.  So even though support for the embargo has dwindled, we have yet to see much evidence that it will be dismantled.  And, of course, it is worth noting yet again that the Helms-Burton Act puts much of that power in the hands of Congress anyway (see section 204 of the law).

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More on moving immigration goalposts

Yet another example of something I've been repeating for a while--it is impossible to increase deportations to a level high enough to satisfy those who are already skeptical of immigration reform.  A letter from Senator John Cornyn and signed by six other senators questions Immigration and Customs Enforcement's commitment to enforcing immigration laws.  We know, of course, that the U.S. government deported more people in the past year than ever before.

The result?  More bad midterm news for the Obama administration.  Reform advocates do not like the deportations, and reform opponents still don't think the administration is really committed to enforcement.

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Barriers to business in Latin America

Gallup has an interesting poll on perceived barriers to business in Latin America, where the belief that paperwork is too onerous is higher than anywhere else in the world.  What I find particularly notable is that within Latin America this does not correlate to ideology.  For example, Venezuela ranks very high, second only to Uruguay in positive terms of whether governments make paperwork and permits easy enough.  Venezuelans also feel very confident that their government will allow them to make a lot of money.  Argentines, meanwhile, have almost no such confidence at all.

Strangely, though, the Gallup report comes to the following illogical conclusion:

In Latin America, the relatively high "no" percentages may reflect a broad set of issues that the public may perceive as tension between government and private businesses, including the wave of company nationalizations, tougher labor regulations, and even business confiscations in recent years.

But this makes no sense.  If it were true, then Mexico and Venezuela should be inverted.

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4.Niner K

We ran the 4.9K on campus today, which funds need-based scholarships.  I love races at the university, and now there are two a year.  It was much better than last year's inaugural race, because it was sunny and they switched the course to be a downhill finish rather than a steep uphill.  My 8 year old son ran with me.

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Latin American democracies

Sara Miller Llana at the Christian Science Monitor has an article about the endurance of democracy in Latin America.  I agree with the following, to a degree:

In many countries in Latin America, the transformation from military rule and dictatorship to democracy in the 1980s and '90s has sealed a democratic tradition. The expectation of free and fair elections and that the democratically elected leader finish his or her term is resounding across the region.

My quibble is that this is a bit over triumphant.  As I've written about, a recent poll showed 22 percent of all Latin Americans believed a coup was likely or very likely in the next twelve months.  Democracy is persisting, but it is by no means "sealed," while the democratic tradition is riddled with setbacks.  Yet the absence of military rule is notable, as is the transfer of power from left to right, or right to left, in many countries.

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CHDS

I am heading to Washington later today to give a talk tomorrow at the Center for Hemispheric Defense Studies, where Latin American military officers take various courses on civil-military relations and democracy.  The title of my talk will be "Civilian Expertise and Civil-Military Relations in Latin America."  This is a topic I've been interested in for some time, and I really look forward to hearing feedback from the officers themselves since of course my audience is usually academic.

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Still embargoed after all these years

Matthew Yglesias quotes a blog post by Ian Vásquez at the Cato Institute about the Cuban embargo as it turns 50.

Keeping the sanctions will only further allow the dictatorship and its sympathizers to explain away the regime’s own failings. It would be better for Cubans and the world to see the unraveling of Cuban communism without U.S. intervention.

There just isn't any intellectual defense of the embargo anymore.  It is not the cause of Cuba's economic woes--Fidel Castro himself has said the economic model is broken--though it has made the lives of the average Cuban more difficult.  It has not led to the ouster of the Castro regime.  It represents limitation of the freedoms of U.S. citizens.  It creates global sympathy for a small country perpetually bullied by Goliath.

None of these outcomes are good for the Cuban people, for U.S. national security or for the U.S. economy.

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More on the binomial system

Mariano Montes at Artepolítica has a good discussion of the binomial electoral system in Chile (it is in Spanish). He is optimistic about its reform, since the Concertación has always pushed to eliminate it and Sebastián Piñera has publicly called for the same.  I would also add that Piñera is in a very strong political position at the moment, so it is entirely possible--though by no means guaranteed--that we could see a change.

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Latin American Immigration call for papers

The December 2011 issue of The Latin Americanist will be a special issue focused on Latin American immigration.  Please check out the call for papers here and pass the info along to anyone who might be interested.

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Drug bust

Is it just me, or does drug trafficking seem more brazen when it involves a convoy in Tijuana?  In general, drugs are hidden: in people, in cars, in submarines, in planes, boats, etc.  A heavily armed convoy suggests less concern about hiding and more interest in sheer bulk.  It also suggests a striking lack of concern about being discovered.  That is the bad news, though at least the good news is that the government had gathered intelligence to intercept it.

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Reconstructing events in Ecuador

Here are two good reconstructions of the September 30 crisis in Ecuador:

Adam Isacson blogging at Just the Facts focuses on the delay between the onset of the crisis and the army's announcement of support for Rafael Correa, positing it as a squeeze to get the bonus law changed.

Sandra Edwards at the Washington Office on Latin America offers a very balanced view, seeing the events from both sides, emphasizing the proximate cause as the policy protest and Correa's surprise arrival.

The trials currently going on should also shed a lot of light.  The essential question is what the goals were of those who started the crisis.  Virtually all accounts focus on the policy, but of course behind that is the issue of what went on behind the scenes between the army and the Correa administration (meaning mostly Correa himself and his Defense Minister) and between the army and the police.

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Piñera wanted to jump the shark

Sebastián Piñera apparently thought about being lowered down into the mine.  Of course, he only wanted to show symbolically that he represented all of Chile and so should join his compatriots.  He had no intention of milking it to a degree so extreme that I believe we can refer to it as jumping the shark.

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Political Science and blogging

Henry Farrell and John Sides, "Building a Political Science Public Sphere With Blogs," The Forum 8, 3 (2010: Article 10.  Ungated link here, though you need to register.

Abstract:

We argue that political science blogs can link conversations among political scientists with broader public debates about contemporary issues. Political science blogs do this by identifying relevant research, explaining its findings, and articulating its applicability. We identify strategies besides blogging that individual scholars and the discipline could undertake to enhance its public profile.

It's good to keep discussions like this going, though my guess is that many political scientist bloggers feel rather talked out about it at this point.  As always, I would add my two cents that most political scientist bloggers focus on American politics or U.S foreign policy, so as I wrote last month all examples used in arguments about blogging ignore comparative politics.  So if I added anything to this article, I would encourage more comparativists--and of course more Latin Americanists--to start blogging.

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More on crime and immgration

I have written a lot about the relationship between crime and immigration (e.g. on Texas and Arizona).  The clear conclusion is that immigration does not increase crime, and may in fact reduce it.  More evidence:

During precisely the period that California experienced the biggest immigrant population increase in its history, the state also experienced a precipitous drop in crime rates, according to a report by Barry Krisberg, a renowned criminologist at UC Berkeley's School of Law.

Correlation is not necessarily causation, but evidence is really piling up.

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Political effects of the miner crisis

In addition to the pretty amazing drama of the Chilean miners, there is also much speculation about the political effects, both domestic and international.  Here are some of the possibilities, and they are not mutually exclusive:

1. Chilean-Bolivian relations improve because Evo Morales came to Chile
2. Sebastián Piñera becomes more popular in the short term
3. Sebastián Piñera becomes more popular in the long term
4. Mining Minister Laurence Golborne runs for president in 2014 because suddenly everyone knows who he is
5. The crisis helped Piñera negotiate a new mining royalty with the Concertación in the legislature
6. Chile's international image is enhanced, particularly when compared to the response to disasters elsewhere, including the United States

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Chile's binomial system

Claudio Fuentes has an article in El Mostrador about proposals to reform the binomial electoral system in Chile.  There is quite a large literature on the system's effects, and lots of disagreement.  One of the most common arguments is that it over-represents the right, which has less popular support than the center-left.  Claudio notes how the right itself now is talking about getting rid of the system, as leaders that it could open the door for the right to win a legislative majority.  There will be debate on it on November 5.  Last year the right blocked a proposal, but President Piñera supports it.

Its removal would revive another long-standing question about whether Chile has retained its traditional tripartite political spectrum (left-center-right) or whether the current center left/center-right split would remain.  There is no agreement about whether the latter is artificial and exists only because the binomial system created it with its incentives for coalition building.

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Chile's binomial system

Claudio Fuentes has an article in El Mostrador about proposals to reform the binomial electoral system in Chile.  There is quite a large literature on the system's effects, and lots of disagreement.  One of the most common arguments is that it over-represents the right, which has less popular support than the center-left.  Claudio notes how the right itself now is talking about getting rid of the system, as leaders that it could open the door for the right to win a legislative majority.  There will be debate on it on November 5.  Last year the right blocked a proposal, but President Piñera supports it.

Its removal would revive another long-standing question about whether Chile has retained its traditional tripartite political spectrum (left-center-right) or whether the current center left/center-right split would remain.  There is no agreement about whether the latter is artificial and exists only because the binomial system created it with its incentives for coalition building.

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Immigration and goalposts

Cal Thomas' column on immigration is notable for two reasons.

First, it confirms my repeated contention that the record number of deportations and other enforcement measures do not help the Obama administration politically.  Thomas moves the goalposts by saying, and I am not making this up, that the administration is deporting too many criminals as opposed to non-criminals.  Yes, you read that correctly.

Second, it repeats untruths about undocumented immigrants and lawbreaking.

What should not be debatable is that lax enforcement of our immigration laws leads to more disrespect for those laws and serves as an incentive for more people to enter the country illegally.

We know empirically that this is false.  Recent immigrants--regardless of immigration status--are more law abiding than the rest of us.  We also know that people will come regardless of our laws.  Conditions other than lax enforcement provide the push and pull factors.

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Immigration salience

In anticipation of the midterm elections, it is very popular in the media to portray immigration as an issue that will decide a lot of races.  I think this is untrue and mostly unsubstantiated.  Very often it is based on polls that do not weigh the importance of different issues.  Poll after poll show the economy as most important.  So people are concerned about immigration, but not nearly as much as other things.  Registered Latino voters themselves believe immigration is only the fifth most important issue.

Meanwhile, for all Americans a July 2010 Gallup poll shows immigration as tied for fourth (at 7% saying it is most important), behind the economy (31%), unemployment/jobs (22%), and dissatisfaction with government (11%).

Yet we get stories like this one from the Orlando Sentinel, which is quite remarkable.  The reporter notes that Florida politicians are avoiding discussing immigration, then notes almost no one is mentioning it during campaign stops, and then concludes that immigration "could make a crucial difference."  Well, it could, but it won't.

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State of exception in Ecuador

I shouldn't have mentioned "normality" too quickly in Ecuador.  Rafael Correa has announced the state of exception will continue in Quito "indefinitely."  This actually isn't constitutional, because Article 166 says that they can last only 60 days, though they can be renewed.

A government official said that it would not involve any restriction of liberties, which does not make sense because Article 165 of the constitution very explicitly gives the president the right to restrict all sorts of liberties.

Article 166 also gives the National Assembly the right to revoke it, though I have not heard what kind of legislative resistance there is to Correa's decree.

Si las circunstancias lo justifican, la Asamblea Nacional podrá revocar el decreto en cualquier tiempo, sin perjuicio del pronunciamiento que sobre su constitucionalidad pueda realizar la Corte Constitucional.

It's not specified who decides whether circumstances justify it.

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Generalizing from Ecuador

An analyst named Ian Bremmer wrote a post about Ecuador in the Foreign Policy blog.  He explains that unrest in Ecuador is a reminder that Cuba and Venezuela could explode in large part because their governments are so unpopular and have to make cuts.

Some problems here.  First, Correa has an approval rating over 50 percent (or did before the current crisis, which likely will make it higher still).  His popularity is not the issue--anti-democratic opposition is.

Second, Cuba may explode because of the regime's unpopularity and the cuts, but some variation of this has been predicted since 1959.  I need more evidence--or really any evidence at all since none is given--to be convinced.

Third, Bremmer "uses cutting-edge political science to predict the political future--and how it will shape the global economy."  And yet his conclusion is:

The overall prognosis?  Stay tuned.

You gotta love "cutting edge political science."

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Divergent goals in the drug wars

At first glance this seems contradictory.

President Felipe Calderon calls Tijuana a success in his four-year-old war on drug cartels, though he is unsure that making the border city safer has reduced the flow of drugs to the United States.

But this is one point that I do believe has a parallel to Colombia.  The U.S. and Mexico/Colombia do not have the same goals in the drug war, even though we profess to.  The U.S. wants to reduce the flow of drugs, whereas Mexico wants to reduce violence.  The problem for the U.S. is that it is entirely possible to reduce violence while not reducing the flow of drugs.

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Deportations

The Obama administration has set a record for deportations, at 392, 862.  But as I have argued before, the administration is very mistaken if it thinks it can use this to its advantage--it will probably have the opposite effect.  In short, the increase does not impress anyone, and alienates some.  From the NYT:

As midterm elections approach, Obama administration officials are facing intense pressure to show they are tough on illegal immigration. States across the country have enacted laws to crack down, citing a failure of the federal government to do the job. An especially broad law adopted by Arizona drew a lawsuit from the federal government and an outcry from Latinos in the state, who said it could lead to harassment and racial profiling. A federal judge stayed central provisions of the law.

Anti-immigration reform Republicans and conservative Democrats will not soften on the administration just because there are more deportations.  Further, it will alienate some Latinos and pro-reform voters.

The net result?  Less political support than before, and perhaps more voters staying home.

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Police rebels=stupid?

Rafael Correa had mentioned that some people meant to kill him.  There are recordings that apparently bear that out, but if they are accurate they also suggest that the rebellion leaders were not especially smart.  For example:

"They should kill Correa so this will end," an unidentified man said on the recording. "Kill Correa and this demonstration will end."

Oh really?  It is hard to imagine a presidential assassination ending the demonstration (which was really more like a mob anyway) or ending much of anything except his life.  Correa actually argues the opposite, that the goal was to kill him, and thus create more chaos that would provide an excuse for a coup.

And also:

Another man on the recording indicates that police wanted Correa to sign a decree guaranteeing unspecified benefits, but which likely refers to the austerity measures.

"The gentleman who is supposedly president will not leave without signing the attributions that correspond to the national police," the man says. "That gentleman has to assure our complete amnesty."

Yet another man threatens Correa, calling him a vulgar name.

"Don't let that [expletive] leave," the man says. "First, he has to sign and then he can leave. If not, that [expletive] leaves dead."

Did they really think Correa would sign things on their behalf under threat of overthrow and/or death?

Of course, we don't know exactly who the speakers are, but if they reflect the views of the police who rebelled, then it doesn't say much about the intelligence of the plotters.

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Job listings at UNC Charlotte

I am copying and pasting these two job listings from my colleague Jim Walsh.  Forward on to anyone who might be interested.

UNC Charlotte is hiring two faculty with expertise in political violence and human rights. The advertisements for both are below. I chair the search committee for the first position, and am happy to answer any questions potential applicants might have--don't hesitate to contact me at jwalsh@uncc.edu.

THE UNIVERSITY OF NORTH CAROLINA AT CHARLOTTE
DEPARTMENT OF POLITICAL SCIENCE
ASSISTANT PROFESSOR POLITICAL SCIENCE

The Department of Political Science at The University of North Carolina at Charlotte invites applicants for a tenure track position in international politics at the level of Assistant Professor. The position begins August 15, 2011. Requirements include Ph.D. in political science or international relations, research expertise in conflict resolution or political violence, advanced training in research methodology and the ability to teach undergraduate research methods, a commitment to promoting diversity as a value in the department and college, and a demonstrated ability to perform high-quality research. Desired qualifications include prior teaching experience and the ability to offer a class on Middle Eastern politics.

Faculty members in the Department of Political Science are expected to maintain regular high-quality publication, seek external funding, and teach courses that service our curriculum. The Department of Political Science has 24 faculty members, and houses an undergraduate major in political science and NASPAA-accredited MPA Program and is a core constituent in the interdisciplinary Ph.D. Program in Public Policy. UNC Charlotte is located in the state’s largest metropolitan area and is a growing Doctoral-Intensive urban university with a commitment to interdisciplinary research and teaching. The university enrolls over 25,000 students. This is one of five new positions in four different departments, as part of an initiative to enhance global and international studies in the College of Liberal Arts and Sciences. 

Apply at https://jobs.uncc.edu. Please attach the following documents with your electronic application: (1) letter of application responding to the qualifications outlined above (2) curriculum vitae, (3) one or two representative writing samples, (4) evidence of teaching effectiveness (if available), (5) three letters of recommendation in .pdf format, and (6) copy of graduate transcripts. Alternatively, letters of recommendation may be sent directly by mail or email to Dr. James Walsh, Chair, International Politics Search Committee, Department of Political Science, UNC Charlotte, 9201 University City Blvd., Charlotte, NC, 28223; jwalsh@uncc.edu. Review of applications will begin October 18, 2010 and continue until the position is filled. 

UNC Charlotte is an AA/EOE and an ADVANCE Institution that strives to create an academic climate in which the dignity of all individuals is respected and maintained. We celebrate diversity that includes, but is not limited to ability/disability, age, culture, ethnicity, gender, language, race, religion, sexual orientation, and socio-economic status. 




THE UNIVERSITY OF NORTH CAROLINA AT CHARLOTTE
DEPARTMENT OF GLOBAL, INTERNATIONAL & AREA STUDIES
ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR: HOLOCAUST AND COMPARATIVE GENOCIDE STUDIES

The Department of Global, International & Area Studies at The University of North Carolina at Charlotte invites applicants for an Associate Professor position in Holocaust and Comparative Genocide Studies. The position begins August 15, 2011; Ph.D. in a discipline appropriate to Holocaust and Comparative Genocide Studies is required at the time of appointment. Requirements for the position include training in the field of Holocaust and Comparative Genocide, an ability to assume a leadership role in the development of the department’s program in this area, and a commitment to promote diversity as a value in the department and college. The successful candidate will have training and expertise in Holocaust and Comparative Genocide Studies and an established scholarly record that demonstrates familiarity with theoretical approaches and analytical models that consider the Holocaust and its legacy in a comparative context of other acts of genocide and human rights abuses across the globe. The candidate will also demonstrate the ability to offer core courses that frame the department’s Holocaust, Genocide and Human Rights curriculum, secure external funding, and engage in community outreach activities. Desired qualifications are a commitment to multi-disciplinary approaches to scholarship and teaching and the ability to contribute to the department’s mission as it relates to the development of undergraduate curricula and future graduate programs.

UNC Charlotte is a growing Doctoral-Intensive urban university with a commitment to interdisciplinary research and teaching. Established in 2009, the Department of Global, International & Area Studies currently offers a multi-disciplinary major and minor in International Studies, as well as minors in Holocaust, Genocide & Human Rights Studies, Islamic Studies, and Judaic Studies. The Department contributes to the university’s General Education program and has strong collaborative relationships with other interdisciplinary programs and academic departments. Its programs and student population reflect the diversity mission and goals of the College of Liberal Arts and Sciences. This is one of five new positions in four departments that are part of an initiative to enhance global and international studies in the College of Liberal Arts and Sciences. For more information about the Department of Global, International & Area Studies, see http://gias.uncc.edu/. 

Applications must be made on-line at: http://jobs.uncc.edu (click on “Faculty” under Vacancy Type). Please attach the following documents: (1) letter of application outlining your relevant teaching and research experience, research agenda, and other experience related to the position, (2) curriculum vitae, (3) writing sample, (4) relevant syllabi, (5) three letters of recommendation specific to this application, and (6) copy of graduate transcript. Screening of applicants will begin November 1, 2010 and will continue until the position is filled. The Search Committee is chaired by Dr. Richard Leeman, c/o Department of Global, International & Area Studies, UNC Charlotte, 9201 University City Blvd, Charlotte, NC 28223. The University of North Carolina at Charlotte is an EOE/AA employer and an ADVANCE Institution that strives to create an academic climate in which the dignity of all individuals is respected and maintained. Therefore, we celebrate diversity that includes, but is not limited to ability/disability, age, culture, ethnicity, gender, language, race, religion, sexual orientation, and socio-economic status. 

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Charlotte and Osama bin Laden

Bill James, a county commissioner here in Mecklenburg County, proposed (though it was blocked after much debate) to find ways to report undocumented immigrants who obtain benefits for their U.S. citizen children.  His reasoning was that this would help us find future Osama bin Ladens.

"We don't know if they're Osama wannabes," said James early in the debate, drawing a sharp rebuke from Cogdell.

I assume he is joking, though you never know.  You just can't make this stuff up.

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Ecuador, continued

Rafael Correa has supported a pay raise, so police (obviously now in the process of being purged of the major rebellion protagonists) and military will get more money, while the controversial bonus reduction will stand, though it seems at least for higher ranks it will be offset by the raise.  Furthermore, the state of emergency will end on Tuesday night (Update: that turned out not to be the case: it is currently extended until Friday).  In other words, in fairly short order his administration has restored relative normalcy.

At this point they're still trying to reconstruct events.  There are many questions, but the big one is figuring out the goal(s) of those police who rebelled.  If indeed they planned to overthrow Correa, then this is a major triumph for democracy in Ecuador, which has a very rocky history.  And really, even if they didn't it is a sign that Ecuadorian democracy is more flexible than in the past, even the recent past.  I would love to see an updated study of their armed forces--Sam Fitch has written a lot on them, but not for years.

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Hispanic voters and Democrats

Doug Mataconis at Outside the Beltway has at least an initial answer to a question I posed not long ago about whether the Obama administration would alienate Hispanic voters by putting up immigration bills that were almost certain to fail.  Here is the graph from Gallup:

This is too short a time frame to come to firm conclusions, since there were dips before (i.e. April 2010) that then saw a rebound.  But how many policy failures will it take for those numbers to stay low?

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Hostage Nation

I read Victoria Bruce, Karin Hayes, and Jorge Enrique Botero's Hostage Nation: Colombia's Guerilla Army and the Failed War on Drugs.  Given how much it focuses on the three American hostages and Ingrid Betancourt, all freed in 2008, I would say the best way to characterize the book is as a companion to Out of Captivity (here is my review of that book from a year ago).  Hostage Nation provides the Colombian context that Out of Captivity mostly ignored.  Reading both gives you insight into how the FARC operates and all the many different voices involved in hostage negotiations.

Some of the most interesting parts of the book come from interviews with FARC guerrillas. The details--both historical and contemporary--about Simón Trinidad and his capture stand out in that regard.  The authors provide a sense of why people become fanatically attached to the FARC, and the nature of their ideological rigidity.  I kept thinking of Néstor Kirchner's perfect recent quote: the FARC "are so back in time, that they are even far behind the Cold War."

Ultimately, though, despite the subtitle it really is not a book about the "failed war on drugs."  The brief epilogue with statistics about coca cultivation, etc. is the only time the authors center on that.  I do think the drug war is failing, but this book doesn't really expand on the argument.  The fight against the FARC is intertwined with the drug war, but they are not synonymous.  Winning or losing battles against the FARC tell us very little about the flow of narcotics.

It does serve as a well-written reminder, though, that all the contract work that U.S. citizens find in Colombia creates problems.  In particular, the contractors feel like they are protected by the U.S. government, whereas the U.S. sees them as much more expendable precisely because they are contractors.

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Padres 2010: Choose your glass

Half empty:  a 10 game losing streak from August 26-Sept 5 transformed a seemingly guaranteed division championship into nothing.

Half full: everyone expected a losing season (and a really bad one at that) so excitement on the last day of the season represents a huge bonus.

I feel a little of both.  I just wish we showed a little more spark on this 162nd game--this was the team everyone thought would characterize the year.  Minuscule batting average, no extra base hits, no runs scored.

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Comprehensive Immigration Reform Act of 2010

No immigration bill will pass this year, but Senators Robert Menendez and Patrick Leahy have introduced S. 3932, the Comprehensive Immigration Reform Act of 2010  It is not on Thomas yet, but here is a preliminary copy of the 874 page behemoth along with a handy summary.

The bill provides a good starting point.  Among many other things, it has a temporary worker program, including a new category of temporary worker, that both protects their rights and remains flexible according to the U.S. labor market; it has extensive enforcement; it ensures immigration policy remains a federal prerogative; and it offers a rigorous pathway to legality for those currently in the U.S. illegally.

What also struck me, though, was a focus on U.S.-Latin American relations, which means a welcome recognition that we cannot pretend to live in a vacuum.  Tucked into the second to last section is the following:

STRATEGY ADDRESS FACTORS DRIVING IMMIGRATION.—The Secretary of State, working with the Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development, shall subsequently submit to the Committee on Foreign Relations of the Senate and the Committee on Foreign Affairs of the House of Representatives, a strategy which responds to the identified economic, social and security factors driving high rates of irregular migration from the prioritized countries identified. The strategy should incorporate consultation with the Bureau of Population, Refugees, and Migration of the Department of State, the Department of Labor, and the Office of the United States Trade Representative.

And then make specific recommendations:

Recommendations for future United States Government assistance and technical support to address key economic, social and development factors identified in the prioritized migration source countries. Such assistance should be designed to ensure appropriate engagement of national and local governments and civil society organizations.

Good.  Of course, knowing what drives immigration does not necessarily mean you can come up with programs to slow it down.  However, a full understanding of those "push" factors is critical for making immigration reform work properly.  Working with Latin American governments, even at the local level, should be part of any reform bill.

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Experiments in Guatemala

The political crisis in Ecuador has distracted from the story about U.S. medical experiments in Guatemala in 1946-48.  Here is the research paper (ungated at her website) the news stories are based on:

Susan M. Reverby, "'Normal Exposure' and Inoculation Syphilis: A PHS 'Tuskegee' Doctor in Guatemala, 1946-48." Forthcoming (January 2011) in Journal of Policy History.


She requests very specifically that she does not want anyone quoting the paper without permission, which is unfortunate because there are some interesting (and disturbing) quotes.  The basic idea was to infect people and then treat them with penicillin to test its effectiveness.

The U.S. government immediately and categorically apologized.  It makes you wonder how many other similar occurrences still remain unearthed.

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Was there a coup attempt in Ecuador?

Given the information we current have--and obviously that will change as more details emerge--it should not be called a coup attempt.  Let's go to the Oxford Companion to Politics of the World, under coup d'état.  First sentence:

A nonconstitutional change of government leadership carried out with the use or threatened use of violence is known as a coup d'état.

An attempted coup, then, is an effort to change the leadership, in this case the president.  It is not entirely clear what the police thought they were going to accomplish, but ousting Correa was not obviously part of it.  Perhaps they hoped the armed forces would join in and overthrow him--if that turns out to be the case, I might change my mind.  I've seen reference to the air force, but it's not yet clear what their goal was, whether they were coordinated at all, etc.  If they just hoped to intimidate him, then it isn't good but it isn't a coup attempt.  Fortunately, the following was the case:

The head of the armed forces, Ernesto Gonzalez, said troops remained loyal to Correa. "We are in a state of law. We are loyal to the maximum authority, which is the president."

And let's hope it stays that way.

Update: FWIW, the government of Ecuador does not necessarily refer to a coup attempt, but rather to an "insubordination."  Correa himself, though, of course does.

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Demobilization and Reparation in Colombia

Jemima García-Godos and Knut Andreas O. Lid, "Transitional Justice and Victims' Rights Before the End of a Conflict: The Unusual Case of Colombia."  Journal of Latin American Studies 42 (2010): 487-516. [and at least for now it is ungated, as is the entire current issue of JLAS]

Abstract:

In a context of continuing armed conflict, a comprehensive scheme of transitional justice has been developed in Colombia since 2005 through the Law of Justice and Peace, with the aim of achieving peace with one of the armed actors in the conflict, the paramilitary groups. The clear link between the demobilisation of illegal armed groups and the rights of the victims is the main feature of the Colombian process. This article provides a systematic review of the implementation of the law, focusing on the institutions, mechanisms and procedures put in place to fulfil its goals. Emphasis is given to the legal category of ‘victim’, victims' rights and victim reparation measures. By exploring how the scheme works in principle and in practice, we are able to assess the prospects for victims' rights in Colombia today.

Unfortunately, the abstract doesn't actually address the two key points in the paper.  First, reparations while a conflict continues is highly unusual.  Second, the process of reparations for abuses by paramilitary groups (the article is not about the FARC) is uneven but going quite well.

Our review of the implementation of the Law of Justice and Peace indicates that there has been a great deal of progress with regard to the establishment of mechanisms and procedures. Public institutions mandated to implement the various aspects of the law have been created and are operating. This, by itself, is no small achievement. In the particular case of Colombia, where the state and its institutions have had relatively little presence in vast areas of the national territory, and where there is a deeply rooted mistrust of the state in general, the implementation of a legal instrument such as the Law of Justice and Peace is a challenging task. Yet regulations have been formulated, approved and implemented, forms have been designed, registration is taking place, and information mechanisms explaining the process are being developed. 

It is an interesting read, particularly for details on the laws and institutions crafted to deal with demobilization and victims' rights, but also for the ways in which those laws could have positive repercussions for other types of victims.

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New Fidel column

Read the latest Fidel Castro column.

--He makes fun of voter turnout in the U.S. when in Cuba there are no free elections

--He confuses high voter turnout in Venezuela with support for the government

--He praises press freedom in Venezuelan when in Cuba there is none

--He mocks the "gross material cravings" of the Venezuelan opposition right after his own brother announced that 500,000 Cubans would have to find work in the private sector to satisfy their cravings, gross or otherwise

--He says the U.S. wants Venezuelan oil.  Well, that one's true

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Malapportionment in Venezuela

Much has been made of the electoral engineering in Venezuela that led to a large discrepancy between seats and votes.  In the Venezuelan case, this is due largely to malapportionment (some people's votes count more than others because of how the district lines are drawn).*  In 2009, district lines were redrawn so that, for example, 20,000 people in Amazonas have one representative, while Caracas has one representative for 350,000 voters (see also Matthew Shugart's blog post last year on the reduction of proportionality).  Thus, the opposition votes in the latter are worth far less than the pro-Chávez votes in the former.

Nationwide, this led to the PSUV winning about 60 percent of seats with 48 percent of votes (a difference of +12).  Meanwhile, the opposition received 47 percent of votes and about 38 percent of seats (a difference of -9). (Note: these numbers are approximate and we're still waiting for final results, but they're good enough for illustration).

If democracy means "one person, one vote," then this is clearly a problem.  Unfortunately, it is a problem in many countries widely considered to be democracies.  This does not excuse Venezuela, but rather puts it in comparative perspective.

Take the 2001 legislative elections in Great Britain, for example.  Labour won 40.7 percent of the votes, yet 62.5 percent of the seats, which is a whopping +21.8 percent difference (though this occurred for different reasons than the Venezuelan case).  Labour "took" those seats from Conservatives and Liberal Democrats (who got over 10 percent fewer seats than votes).  Seat and vote discrepancies have long been an issue in Great Britain.  Rein Taagepera and Matthew Shugart note how the 1929 British parliamentary election crushed the Liberal Party because of electoral rules, a defeat that led it to be a minority party for decades.**

What should we take from this?  The Venezuelan opposition has every right to complain, as the rules are set in the PSUV's favor and some votes are more valuable than others.  Electoral rules are generally crafted and re-crafted to benefit those who are making those rules.  Unfortunately, doing something about it will be difficult, because of course the rules themselves make it harder to obtain the necessary votes.  But it is a common problem even in established democracies.

*Many people are using the term "gerrymander" for Venezuela, but gerrymandering refers to changing district lines while keeping the number of voters in each district about the same.  That is not the case in Venezuela.

**Rein Taagepera and Matthew Soberg Shugart, Seats and Votes: The Effects and Determinants of Electoral Systems (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1989): 2.  I note this book as well because it is the classic on the topic.

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Cuba and reality

I love Mary Anastasia O'Grady as much as anyone, because she is 100% Nutter Butter (no offense to Nabisco).  But when she calls Fidel Castro a threat to global security, I am happy to let someone else refute her rationally, so read Steven Taylor.  He links to Jeffrey Goldberg's response, and who sums up nicely that O'Grady's column "is almost pathological in its disregard for reality."

Is a tiny bit of sanity too much to ask for?  The answer courtesy of the Wall Street Journal is a resounding "no."

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Juxtaposition headlines: Venezuela

"Gran victoria socialista" (Agencia Bolvariana de Noticias)

and

Hugo Chávez wins but opposition gains (Fox News)

and

Poll setback for Venezuela's Chavez (Al-Jazeera)

Take your pick!  The opposition claims to have won a majority of votes, but a minority of seats.  We still await official results.

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