Upcoming election in Nicaragua
Thanks to my student Carla for sending me the link to this article on Daniel Ortega. The Nicaraguan presidential election is coming up this weekend.
The U.S. government has made known its desire for Ortega to lose, and yet is doing all it can to help him win. Oliver North was in Managua and couldn’t help himself--he compared Ortega to Hitler and Mussolini. And that has worked so well with Hugo Chávez. These signs of meddling will very likely turn off voters.
Perhaps it’s because so many in the Bush administration are old Cold Warriors that they view Nicaragua as if it is still 1981. The current incarnation of Ortega isn’t exactly pleasant, but neither is it Marxist. His power sharing deal with conservative former president (and convicted embezzler) Alemán shows willingness to make deals that clearly violate his old ideology. So he may be corrupt, but he’s not very Marxist.
Michael Shifter wrote a good Op-Ed about this Cold War flashback. Amazingly, the U.S. reaction has included calls from some members of Congress to block Nicaraguan remittances if Ortega won. I agree with Shifter’s overall assessment:
Yet Ortega's possible comeback would not have far-reaching repercussions in Latin America and surely would constitute no threat to the United States. Intervention in Nicaragua's internal affairs is unwarranted.
The curious thing about this particular race is that because of Nicaragua’s electoral rules, Ortega has a very good chance of winning in the first round, but if it went to a second, he would almost certainly lose. A candidate needs 35% of the vote, with the closest challenger at least 5 percentage points behind. Polls show Ortega very close to that (see Matthew Shugart’s post). The right is split, but would unite in a second round with only two candidates.
5 comments:
I visited Nicaragua this summer and have been actively searching for news about the elections since then. In Nicaragua in July talk of the election was omnipresent, but I was dismayed to find very little election coverage in the US news when I came home.
Then suddenly the headlines today -the news about US involvment...the ads on Nica radio and threats to withdraw aid. It makes me ill. The US needs to mind its own business. As you stated, this is not the 80's. I also fear the voice of the U.S. in Nica elections would do more harm than good.
I'll be adding your blog to my bloglines.
Ariana
Teacher
Chicago, IL
nikolapv@hotmail.com
The problem (again) is the reputation of the Bush Administration. Bush and the current White House are so disliked and mistrusted that by simply opening their mouths they generate support for the opposition, no matter who it is (Chavez, Ortega, Nancy Pelosi, etc). Ortega is probably not good for US interests in Central America, but if our ambassador had just kept his mouth shut he probably would have no chance of winning. I think sometimes that Bush and his team just don't understand how counterproductive their PR spin can be.
Yes, it's all very unfortunate. For well over a century now, the U.S. has a miserable track record in Nicaragua...
Let's see if anyone else shoots off their mouth before Sunday's election.
I emailed my American friend who lives in Nicaragua yesterday. He works seelling real estate. He said he's pulled all his money out of the country as a precaution, in case Ortega wins.
In general, many people need to get out of their time warps, though I would be surprised if an Ortega win really led to significant capital flight.
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