Sunday, November 12, 2006

The U.S. government believes that Castro may die someday

In one of the more incisive examples of political intelligence I’ve seen, the U.S. government thinks that Fidel Castro’s health is “deteriorating” and he is unlikely to live past next year. As the article notes, this is all hush hush: “American officials will not talk publicly about how they glean clues to Castro's health.” Now maybe I am going out on a limb here, but I’m guessing this startling conclusion was reached after months of careful examination of such things as:

--Castro himself saying his health problems were serious
--everyone in Cuba saying his health problems were serious
--publicly aired videos showing his health problems were serious

U.S. government officials believe he has cancer of the stomach, colon, or pancreas. Or something. A year ago it was Parkinson’s, but maybe that one didn’t pan out.

Here’s my question: why does the U.S. government bother leaking these predictions? I guess officials figure that one day, they’ll finally be right.

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