Illegal immigration and North Carolina
The Pew Hispanic Center estimates that the number of undocumented immigrants in North Carolina has decreased, though there is a large margin of error. The trend is identical here as elsewhere--fewer people are coming (particularly from Mexico) but there is no evidence of large scale return migration:
"There's no indication that the numbers leaving have gone up," Passel said. "The best thing we can do with our data is say that the overall numbers have stopped growing."
The sad part is that anti-immigrant groups are pleased, seeming not to understand the logic behind all this.
"That means that North Carolinians will have a better chance of getting jobs that really belonged to them in the first place," said Ron Woodard, head of N.C. Listen, a citizen group that advocates for a crackdown on illegal immigration.
Um, no, it doesn't mean that at all. It means there are no jobs for anyone. If fewer people are coming illegally, it is because there is nothing here. If we ever get to a point where there is an exodus out of here, it means our economy has essentially collapsed. Hooray!
As a matter of fact, the flip side is that an increase of undocumented immigrants could well be viewed as an early indicator of economic recovery.
2 comments:
I notice you've been following this issue of immigrant return rates pretty closely, Greg, and wondered what you thought about policies like Spain's Voluntary Return Law. I work for Americas Quarterly and our Spring issue has an article on exactly that. Is this simply a populist measure, something to win the votes of Spanish workers who think immigrants are stealing their jobs? Is it some benevolent move to help immigrants who are simply stuck in Spain, without the money (but with the desire) to return home? Or is it a necessary move in a smaller economy like Spain's?
Especially when compared to the doomed US initiative to give undocumented immigrants a one-way ticket home, this actually looks quite reasonable. I would agree with the article, however, that it would be most successful with people who were thinking of leaving anyway, which in turn reduces its effectiveness.
The bottom line, though, is that legislation alone may well not have much effect on whether immigrants choose to leave. Other factors, especially economic (which is also tied to demography) will loom largest.
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