Saturday, August 28, 2010

Quote of the day: Venezuela

From the AP:

The survey of 1,500 people nationwide in late June and early July had a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points, said Cabrera, who is vice president of the polling firm. He said the poll was financed by a group of private businesses, which he declined to identify.

Polling is always controversial in Venezuela, but those commissioned by anonymous businesses that almost certainly hate Hugo Chávez are especially questionable.


Justin Delacour 1:22 PM  

Ah, yes, Saul Cabrera. In the past, Cabrera headed a polling firm called Consultores 21, which has a reputation of using biased methods to tilt its results in favor of the opposition.

Past evidence indicates that pro-Chavez pollsters are also using somewhat biased methods.

All of these polling biases are rooted in the persistent assumption that each side can boost the morale of its base and create a bandwagon effect in its favor by putting out polls that exaggerate its electoral prospects.

I don't doubt that Chavez's numbers are down from where they were at the beginning of 2009, but the notion that his approval rating is below 40% is rather dubious.

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