Security threats in Latin America

From General Douglas Fraser, head of the U.S. Southern Command:

"I do not see any conventional military threat to the United States from the region," General Douglas Fraser told a conference organized by the University of Miami. "So my concerns then become... very non-traditional.

Good for him.  This should be obvious, but we hear far too many voices claiming Cuba, Venezuela, et al are security threats.  And what about all the Iran paranoia?

Fraser noted that Iran had almost doubled the number of embassies in the region in the past five years, established cultural centers in 17 countries, and is supporting anti-US efforts in the area."

But, he said, "from a security standpoint, I have not seen a significant connection. My primary concern remains their historic relationship with Hezbollah."

The more we repeat this, the better.  Let's stop obsessing with Hugo Chávez, Iran, etc. and focus on real threats, which revolve around drug trafficking and gangs.  I am still dubious about the Hezbollah threat, but it is far preferable to call it a "concern" rather than a "threat."

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Pop goes the bubble?

I've been writing a lot over recent months about how the heralded Latin American economic growth is based largely on high commodity prices, and wondering about the long-term effects.  So this article in the New York Times caught my eye:

Commodities prices fell sharply on Thursday, led by the steepest drop in oil prices since the fall of 2008.

Investors dumped commodities like silver and coffee and sugar that had seen a vast — and some said worrying — build up in prices within the last year on expectations of strong global demand.

And:

“You’re in a situation where a lot of these markets have pushed to all-time highs and it’s at a point where it became very unstable and that’s where you started to topple,” said Dax L. Wedemeyer, a broker analyst with US Commodities, a brokerage firm West Des Moines, Iowa.

So we'll wait and see what the growth numbers look like later this year.

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Alan Garcia and elections

I recommend Frank Bajak's article on Alan García's role in the Peruvian presidential elections.  It can be summed up with three words: ego, ego, and ego.  Really, the strangest part of it all is how an individual who is so unpopular and has enacted so many disastrous policies, and who now credits Pope John Paul with Osama bin Laden's death, has any influence at all.

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Latin America economic outlook

The International Monetary Fund issued its Regional Economic Outlook for Latin America.  The overall conclusion is that growth is based largely on commodity exports, demand for which has created a risk of overheating.  Tucked in there is the acknowledgment that high commodity prices include food and that high food prices make people go hungry.  What to do?  School lunches within the "established budget envelope" without stimulating demand.  Who knew hunger was so easily solved?

Rising global prices of commodities, especially food, pose an important social challenge across the region. This applies even to countries that are net exporters of commodities and food, the report said.

To protect the poor, policies should focus on scaling up proven social safety net programs, such as targeted income transfers, school lunches, and child nutrition programs. Generalized price subsidies should be avoided as these measures are often very costly and regressive, and can turn out to be permanent—requiring large adjustments to other parts of the budget. The expansion of safety nets should take place within the established budget envelope, in some cases to avoid stimulating demand (South America), while in other cases to rebuild the policy buffers (Central America and the Caribbean).

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Not lazy in Mexico

The Mexican cultural stereotype (which, sadly, is still prevalent) is famously centered on laziness, with people taking long siestas.  Now the OECD notes that Mexicans work longer hours than anyone else.  I agree, though, that this is nothing to brag about:

But Rubio and other economists said revelations of such hard work by Mexicans is not really good news — rather it is a symptom of underdevelopment and inefficiencies.

“The environment in which they work tends to demand more work, more hassle and more complexity to arrive at a similar result,” Rubio said. “In other words, productivity is lower in Mexico because there are so many obstacles to efficient work,” such as the mountains of red tape produced by a sprawling government and corporate bureaucracy.

So working harder does not get you much further along.

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More on Osama bin Laden and Latin America

Two more thoughts on Osama bin Laden and Latin America:

First, lots of people talking about how much this matters for Barack Obama in 2012.  Maybe, but go back to this oldie but goodie from January 1989:  the New York Times proclaimed "Approval of Bush, Bolstered by Panama, Soars in Poll."  Bush Sr. was bigger than Elvis for a while.  Yes, invading a small Central American country is not as exciting as killing OBL, but there is still a long way to go until the next presidential election.  Long enough that it is very premature to say with much confidence how a big foreign policy boost will affect voters' feelings that far ahead.

Second, killing a highly symbolic leader is certainly important, but we should be careful not to overstate how it changes everything. In Colombia, the government has killed such FARC leaders as Mono Jojoy, but that does not end the insurrection.  The FARC, like Al Qaeda, is being weakened not only by military strikes but also--and this is critical--by domestic and international condemnation.  Killing their leaders, however, does not suddenly end the battle.

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Osama bin Laden and Latin America

When I heard the news about Osama bin Laden, two Latin America-related thoughts came to mind.

First, when the CIA hunted down Che Guevara, they took photos and even cut off his hands.  This was done on purpose: they wanted to prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that he was dead.  Nobody ever questioned whether it was really him.  But now OBL's body was thrown into the sea, which will spawn endless conspiracy theories.  Well, maybe that's not so bad, as they could be entertaining.

Second, if we are lucky then this will take some air out of the conspiracy theories regarding Al Qaeda's infiltration of Latin America.  Unfortunately, we probably won't be lucky, and of course you can just blame Hezbollah instead.  These conspiracy theories are not entertaining, as they can lead to bad policy.

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Juxtaposition: South America

Coca Cola plans new bottling plants in South America

AND

Chilean first lady starts campaign against obesity

Unfortunately, the increased Americanization of the Latin American diet may someday make the Latino health paradox a thing of the past.

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Left in Venezuela

When talking about the thaw between Venezuela and Colombia, the most common focus is how it annoys the U.S. government and Alvaro Uribe.  But it also annoys the Venezuelan left, which is furious that Hugo Chávez arrested a suspected member of the FARC, Joaquin Perez.

The move is considered a betrayal among many Chavez supporters, including prominent lawmakers, journalists and at least one former minister. It has provoked a furious reaction.

"Next we will be the chased and arrested," said Luis Alvarez, one of about 200 protesters outside Venezuela's Foreign Ministry, "This is terrible and dangerous for the whole international revolutionary movement."

Protesters set ablaze an effigy of Foreign Minister Nicolas Maduro, calling him and Information Minister Andres Izarra "traitors." Some anger also was directed at Chavez, as shown in road graffiti that said "Chavez, betrayal is not revolution."

The idea that going after the FARC is betrayal is not likely shared by too many Venezuelans, so it is entirely worth it for Chávez to risk their ire and improve relations with Colombia.  That will be beneficial for gaining moderate votes in 2012 and for the economy.

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Obama and immigration

Ruben Navarette takes a very critical look at President Obama's record on immigration.  I agree with much of it, but am less sure about this:

Obama may not be a good leader but he has good timing: ramp up immigration reform groups in the spring; work with congressional leaders to draft legislation in the summer; propose a bill in the fall. Then he can spend early winter watching Republicans tear apart the idea — and themselves — in time for the New Hampshire primary in February 2012. Obama can waltz through next year's campaign with the confidence that he'll do fairly well with Latinos who will show up to vote not for him but against the Republican candidate.

Maybe.  But this does not adequately explore the possibility that Latinos (and others) will stay home rather than vote against Republicans.  At any rate, it is hard to see any "waltzing" in Obama's future.

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Getting moderates in Peru

Ollanta Humala had his about face to woo moderates for the run-off, and here is Keiko Fujimori's.  Before, her father headed the "best government in Peru's history."  Now she apologizes for his "mistakes" and "crimes."  And he might have been "authoritarian" but not a dictatorship.  Before, she said she "would not hesitate" to pardon him.  Now she swears she won't.

So will the real Ollanta Humala and Keiko Fujimori please stand up?

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The WHINSEC debate goes on

An article at the Council of Hemispheric Affairs has generated some heat (updated: see more on COHA's own response here), as it questions the assumptions of those--particularly the School of the Americas Watch--who want the Western Hemisphere Institute for Security Cooperation (WHINSEC, formerly the School of the Americas) closed.  I don't think it is a very well-written or well-argued article, though it remind me of several problems people face when discussing this hotly charged issue.

First, WHINSEC and the SOA should not be viewed as the same thing, or at the very least that assertion should be treated as something to be proved rather than assumed.

Second, any analysis of SOA's influence on individuals should also take into account the domestic Latin American civil-military context.  Both SOA and WHINSEC have an impact, though not necessarily in the simple way (we teach, they go and practice our teachings) that many supporters and critics alike assert.

Third, the fact that WHINSEC's budget is small does not mean it should or shouldn't be closed.  Arguments should focus more on what it is actually doing.

For my 2003 academic article on the topic, see here.  I last wrote about WHINSEC on this blog in 2007.

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Peru and moderation

While I am glad to a the mainstream media (in this case Newsweek) contradict conventional wisdom about the Peruvian election, I do wish it could be done more cogently.  The basic argument is that whoever wins in Peru will likely govern more moderately than people tend to think.  That argument can be made most convincingly by focusing on political institutions: Ollanta Humala needs the center to gain a majority in a second round, and then will face an opposition majority in the legislature.  Therefore he will need to move toward the center.  Maybe this is wrong, maybe it is right, but it is a logical argument.

Instead, the article veers off into how Humala might copy Lula, without any evidence to suggest precisely why he would do so other than that he wants to win--that makes more sense if you ditch the Lula comparison and just look at the dynamics of winning a presidential election in Peru.

Then it heads into what seems an inevitable part of U.S. media analyses of the election.  Macroeconomic indicators make everyone say Peru is a success story (and, of course, in the past similar stories circulated about Bolivia, Venezuela, etc.) and we cannot understand why Peruvians themselves seem not to understand that.  The article gets into that only very briefly.  If you get an outcome that seems to make no sense, you should start thinking of alternate hypotheses.  In the case of Peru, that is not happening very often in media accounts of the election.

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Juan of the Dead

Best idea for a movie that I have heard in a long time.

Mysterious attacks break out across the island, leaving the victims disfigured and drenched in blood. The government and state media blame US-backed dissidents and assure the population the situation is under control.

But as the attacks spread, Juan, a fortysomething loafer in Havana, identifies the true culprit – a plague of zombies – and does what Cubans traditionally do in times of crisis: becomes a capitalist. He sets up a business, Juan of the Dead, and makes a quick profit ridding customers of infected loved ones by bashing, smashing and stomping out their brains.

Welcome to the world of Cuba's first feature-length horror film in half a century, a gore-filled black comedy which satirises social mores in the twilight of Castro rule.

"It makes observations about who we are," Alejandro Brugués, the director and writer, said. "A government which blames the US for everything. A people who are very passive. And then when confronted with a crisis we go into business."

I have to see this movie.  It also made me wonder if there is any correlation between political regime and movie genres.  Dictatorships don't seem to produce many horror movies, perhaps because people aren't in the mood to be frightened further?

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State law and guest workers

Fascinating stuff.  Republican members of the House are criticizing the Utah immigration bill because it contains a guest worker provision.  As I've noted, the Georgia bill that seems likely to be signed into law also contains such a provision.  For these reasons, we need to be careful about lumping all such laws together as the same as SB 1070 (something I have to admit I have tended to do).  Here is an interesting quote from that article:

But Utah legislators said the state needed a bill that covered enforcement as well as the state’s need for immigrant labor.

"Being reasonable and being conservative are not mutually exclusive,” Herbert said in a statement to a local Utah television station. “Part of being conservative is being practical.”

Again, very interesting.  Conventional wisdom is that Republicans must play to an enforcement-minded base.  Is there room in there for "practical" and "reasonable"?

I have not bothered to go into the hypocrisy of criticizing state laws while also refusing to pass federal law.  It is like shooting fish in a barrel.

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Brazil and Honduras

Boz writes about how Juan Manuel Santos did an end run around Brazil with regard to getting Hugo Chávez's support for Honduras' reincorporation into the OAS, which puts Dilma Rousseff in the position of either supporting it or looking extreme.

I would offer a slightly different argument, namely that Rousseff doesn't care.  The Honduran coup obviously touched a chord with Lula, who inserted Brazil in an unprecedented fashion.  But Rousseff, despite her own strong leftist and anti-dictatorial credentials, does not appear particularly interested.  So the end run may more accurately be labeled as taking action while Brazil chooses not to.

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Juxtaposition: Honduras

Ileana Ros-Lehtinen says the U.S. should not pressure Honduras because it is "blackmail."

AND

Ileana Ros-Lehtinen says the U.S. "must make the defense of human rights and democratic principles a foreign policy priority."

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Runoff dynamics in Peru

It is interesting to watch the incentives generated by the presidential runoff system in Peru.  With only 31 percent in the first round, Ollanta Humala needs to woo a lot of voters, and he has clearly decided he needs to go to the center to get them.  To that end, he is backing off previous statements about nationalization, such as in his "Nationalist Proposal."  He put together a team of moderates, and his top advisor keeps saying there will be no state takeovers and an Humala administration would respect existing free trade agreements.   Now he says the pension system will remain in private hands, saying "We want to give confidence to the Peruvian people."

A new poll is expected on April 24, so stay tuned.

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Immigration gridlock

Esther Cepeda has a good analysis of the appellate court ruling on SB 1070, particularly how it does not clearly articulate the proper relationship between federal and state governments with regard to the foreign policy issue of immigration.  I really like her conclusion, and I agree completely:

Observers of Arizona's audacious law had hoped its judicial spectacle would at least prod the federal government into some action. But based on this decision, it seems that at least for the foreseeable future Washington's message to Arizona and other states who want to take immigration matters into their own hands is: You're not allowed to deal with illegal immigration yourselves, only we can. And we will. Sometime. Maybe. Stand by.

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Brazilian immigration

Tyler Cowen asks why Brazilians migrate less frequently to the United States than Salvadorans.  He then offers some hypotheses, some of which ("Brazil is too much fun to leave") seem only to be feeble attempts at humor, while others ("Brazil has a history of viewing the United States as a rival; El Salvador does not") don't actually make sense to me.  Cuba is a rival, yet Cubans come to the U.S. in large numbers.  So let me offer three others:

1. The United States did not spend billions on a violent civil war in Brazil.  That alone accounts for a lot of Salvadoran migration (see also: Colombia and Iraq).

2. Speaking Portuguese rather than Spanish puts low wage Brazilians at a distinct disadvantage in the United States compared to Spanish-speaking migrants.

3. Brazil is geographically a lot farther from the United States than El Salvador.

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Quote of the day: Cuba

Two plus two is four. Never five, much less six or seven, as we have sometimes pretended.

--Raúl Castro on the continued reform of the Cuban economic and political model

Of course, this conflicts directly with his assertion that Cubans will enjoy free access to a wide variety of social services.  It will be interesting to see whether the state opens the door for, say, small medical businesses for those with money.

I also assume that embargo supporters will argue that it is the reason this is happening.

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Juxtaposition: Bay of Pigs

Staunch anti-Fidelista Enrique Ros on why the Bay of Pigs was so great.

AND

Staunch pro-Fidelista Hugo Chávez tweeting about how the Pay of Pigs was great.

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Georgia bill

After some hope of moderation, the Georgian legislature passed an SB 1070-type immigration bill and the governor is expected to sign it.  It is ironic:

The bill helps the governor fulfill a campaign promise and sends a message to Washington, Mr. Robinson said: “States are picking up the tab for the gigantic cost of a problem that Washington won’t fix.”

Of course, this bill will become extraordinarily expensive both in terms of lawsuits and in terms of implementation, while not accomplishing its goals.  Georgia is therefore voluntarily increasing its own tab.

One silver lining is that Georgia, like Utah, has included a guest worker program.  This suggests that when we get to federal reform, a national-level guest worker program will be easier to pass.  No enforcement measures will work without that.

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Commodity exports and growth

The presidential election in Peru is more evidence of the fact that macroeconomic growth alone is not enough to understand whether people are becoming more prosperous.  Too many basically sit back and wonder why those Peruvians don't know what's good for them when they vote.

But the issue of growth comes back to an entirely unoriginal point I keep making, namely that commodity-driven growth is unstable. An article from the Brookings Institution, while even giddy about Argentina of all places, provides a glimpse into the problem.

Traditional Dutch disease has been linked primarily to the effects of high commodity export prices or volumes in one sector at the expense of other sectors. The symptoms are already apparent in commodity exporting countries like Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Colombia, where the volumes of non-primary net exports have been falling rapidly and industrial output and employment are starting to dwindle despite solid GDP growth figures. 

The authors also discuss "financial Dutch disease" and argue that a bit of financial tweaking will largely address the problem.  History suggests otherwise.  Plus, growth alone says nothing about distribution of wealth.  In short, nice looking growth rates obscure problems with employment (not to mention the fact that the nature and wages of the employment is almost never discussed) and commodity dependence.  These are very old ideas and arguments, but so often get lost in the shuffle.

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Juxtaposition: economic reform

I kept going to the people and saying, "We're doing this because we have to save stability, and you just can't keep spending." Even [though] we had a very tight budget, we had to cut it more, simply because we had been hit by external shocks, and what he told us was don't put it off, do it, and explain it to the people, and the people will accompany you if you have credibility and you're taking the steps at the opportunity. If you put it off, if you want to finesse it and forget it and push it aside hoping that things will improve, you'll find it very difficult to apply; it's too late.

--Bolivian President Gonzalo Sánchez de Lozada in a 2001 interview

We need to cut spending, address our insolvent entitlements programs and tighten our belt by doing more with less as Republicans propose in our budget. Americans don’t want their taxes raised, they want Washington to get its fiscal house in order, and I call on President Obama, Leader Reid, and Leader Pelosi to follow our lead in cutting spending and rule out raising taxes in our current economy.”

--Eric Cantor in 2011

Take a look at Bolivian political history to see how well that worked out.  A good post at The Monkey Cage is a reminder of what "the people" really want.

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New McCain immigration bill

If you want to see a non-serious and failure-guaranteed bill, then look at the new one from John McCain and John Kyl (courtesy of MicEvHill.com).  It is a five year, $4 billion plan to do more border patrol, more fencing, more National Guard, etc.  Like the Cuba embargo, the idea is that just more will finally do the trick without wondering whether the underlying logic is flawed.

And how to pay for it?  Take away money from other unnamed sources, but specifically nothing from defense.

IN GENERAL.—Notwithstanding any other provision of law, of all available unobligated funds, $4,030,000,000 in appropriated discretionary funds are rescinded.

It won't work, and from many past statements I think McCain knows that.  He and Kyl can use it as an argument for more enforcement even if it doesn't pass.  But it is also a convenient way to argue for taking away money from other projects that do work but you don't like so want to de-fund.

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Chile-China

CIPER Chile points out a Wikileaks cable the U.S. embassy sent in 2005, fairly dripping with paranoia about Chinese espionage.

China’s growing commercial, educational and military ties with Chile will increase its access to many areas of Chilean government and society. This, in turn, will increase Chile’s vulnerability to Chinese intelligence gathering activities. And – if used as a base for increased Chinese presence in the region – Chile may become a platform country in more ways than it ever imagined. End Summary.

No drama here.  Of more interest, though, is Craig Kelly's assessment of Chilean foreign policy.  It is the best example of the pot calling the kettle black that I have seen in some time.

Given its political “”shyness”", it is unlikely Chile will independently raise difficult issues of human rights violations, democratic processes, labor protections or environmental preservation for the time being, especially if it perceives its continued economic prosperity to be at risk.

This is, of course, precisely what the U.S. does, and has done forever, and it is just a basic articulation of realism.  That it is draped in a naivete argument makes it pretty insulting as well.

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Political effects of inequality in Peru

Provocative op-ed by Dennis Jett, former U.S. Ambassador to Peru.  The upshot is that when the distribution of wealth is highly unequal, people will vote for extremes, and that this can happen in the United States just as well as in Peru.

Income inequality in the United States is at an all-time high and approaching that of Latin America. Even though the tax burden is lower now than at any time since the Eisenhower administration, the rich here, as in Latin America, always insist they pay too much. Given the cost of running for office, the market economy ensures that the winners are the best politicians money can buy. The result is the current budget debate in Washington, where the discussion centers on how to dismantle the social safety net in order to cut taxes on the wealthy even more.

When any of this is pointed out, the reaction is that the critics are resorting to class warfare. But the war has already begun. Common sense and common purpose have already been victims of that war in much of Latin America. Now Peru has set itself back economically and politically by decades. America is on the same path to division and irrelevance. That process is a tragedy for Peru. It will be a disaster for the world if it happens here.

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SB 1070 blockage

The Ninth Circuit Appeals Court upheld the ban on enforcing parts of Arizona's SB 1070.  The decision highlights what many opponents have been saying for some time--states who make such laws will face considerable expense.  Jan Brewer is already asking for money:

Bottom line is that I'm going to ask everybody tonight to remember my legal defense fund, because this is not cheap, but we can win. So I want people to go to KeepAZsafe.com and help us fight this battle.

As study after study has shown, undocumented immigrants are far more safe than the average American.  In the context of a serious recession, then, it makes no sense to throw away money at the issue.  Indeed, that rationale is reaching into Georgia:

“There is no reason for us to be forging ahead on this to be simply the second state to go forward and spend millions of dollars litigating this issue,” Sen. Curt Thompson, D-Tucker, said during an impromptu news conference before the Senate vote. “It doesn’t produce jobs unless it is jobs for lawyers. ... The bottom line here is we need to let this process work its way through the courts.”

Eventually it will go to the Supreme Court.  And the country will have spent quite a lot on lawyers.

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Peru election

Populism is a reflection of, among other things, dissatisfaction with the status quo and established political parties.  In that context, media portrayals of the Peruvian election show a consistent contradiction.

As it currently stands, Ollanta Humala and Keiko Fujimori would go to a second round.  That could change as more votes come in, but the basic idea is the same.  Peruvians are not happy with the status quo and are open to potentially very radical change based more on individuals than on parties.

So CNN International's rhetorical question "Who will make the most of the recent combination of good macroeconomic management and high commodity prices?" is misplaced.  A more accurate question is why so many Peruvians don't believe "macroeconomic management" had any impact on them at all.  Or we have the Wall Street Journal: "financial markets fret that Mr. Humala might reverse the market-oriented policies that have helped turn Peru into one of the world's fastest growing economies." Bloomberg gets more to the point, though far down in the article:

Under Garcia, Peru created 2.5 million jobs and had its first-ever investment-grade ratings from Moody’s Investors Service, Standard & Poor’s and Fitch Ratings. A third of Peruvians still live in poverty, most of them in the Andean highlands where support for Humala is strongest.

This is an old, old story.  Marcoeconomic indicators look great, so the country must be doing all the right things and is held up as a model for others to follow.  So we are perplexed when a majority of people seem so dissatisfied.  The result is that we get the essential causal question backwards.  Instead of asking what effect populism will have on the economy, we need to ask how economic policy helped generate populism.

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Human rights in Honduras

The State Department's newly released human rights report on Honduras is a curious mix.  On the one hand, it has 47 single-spaced pages detailing a wide variety of serious abuses--acknowledgment of these abuses is commendable.  On the other, the report dances around assigning specific responsibility to anyone through creative use of the passive tense and vague phraseology.  One of my favorites comes right at the beginning: "There were instances in which elements of the security forces acted independently of civilian control."

Another good one: "The constitution and law prohibit arbitrary arrest and detention, but authorities at times failed to enforce these prohibitions effectively."

But sometimes they hit the nail on the head.  This is a good one: "The news media continue to suffer from venality, politicization, vulnerability to special interest manipulation, and weak professionalism in reporting and analyzing news."

At the very least, the catalog of abuses should give State Department officials pause before issuing glowing statements about the progress made by the administration of Porfirio Lobo.

As an aside, it appears Hugo Chávez has agreed to support Honduras' return to the OAS.  Clearly, seeing Juan Manuel Santos' relationship with Chávez as automatically negative for the U.S. is simplistic.

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Fox and drugs

For several years now, former Mexican President Vicente Fox has been a man on a mission: legalize drugs.  However, I would suggest that he get some better talking points.  In particular, you will not sway many people by saying that we might as well legalize drugs since we've legalized so many other things.

“We’re talking about the last frontier of prohibition. Tell me something else that is prohibited today? Abortion is permitted. Marriage between same-sex (people) now is permitted … smoking cigarettes is permitted, alcohol is permitted,” Fox said.

It is essentially telling people they should just grease up because it's a really slippery slope and you might as well enjoy the ride.

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Immigration debate in SC

To get a sense of how incoherent state-level efforts can be with regard to immigration, consider South Carolina. The Senate wanted to create a parapolice force, the Illegal Immigration Enforcement Unit, the legality of which has to be questionable.  How much would this cost?  Well, no one even bothered to guess.

Sen. Larry Martin, R-Pickens who led the effort to push the immigration bill through the Senate, said Thursday he did not know how the state would pay for the unit. He also did not know how much the fee would have raised.

The fee in question is one that would have taxed wire transfers, obviously aimed at immigrants. The problem is that this punishes the South Carolinian businesses who do the transfers, and they were unhappy enough to get the fee scrapped.

So where to get the money?

S.C. Rep. James Harrison, R-Richland, chairman of the House Judiciary Committee, said he did not think the fee was an appropriate way to pay for the immigration enforcement unit. He suggested money come from the state general fund.

Harrison challenged the Senate to find the money.

“If this bill passes through the House, the Senate still has the budget,” Harrison said. “If they want to fund it, they can put it in the budget.”

But when you're dipping into the general fund for a parapolice force of unknown cost, remember that South Carolina has a $877 million budget deficit.

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Ecuador ambassador kicked out

The Ecuadorian Ambassador the US, Luis Gallegos, has been proclaimed persona non grata in response to the same gesture by Ecuador to the U.S. Ambassador.  This is particularly unfortunate, as when he came to UNC Charlotte in January I had a really favorable impression.  Hopefully things will calm down soon and both can return.

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Broken immigration court system

The Chicago Tribune has a long, sobering, and troubling article about the immigration court system.  This gets way too little attention.  The court infrastructure is terrible, and leaves judges in a position of trying to make snap decisions about the lives of thousands of people.

Judges handle, on average, more than 1,200 matters a year, leaving them so overwhelmed they mostly issue oral decisions "that sometimes are not fully researched or based in law or fact," according to a 2010 report commissioned by the American Bar Association. 

This puts a strain on the judges themselves, who have to digest the details of cases rapidly, all of which have high stakes.  Even at that pace, people sometimes have to wait years to have their cases heard.

On Thad Gembacz's first day as immigration judge in Los Angeles, he had 1,198 cases. 

On his last day, a dozen years later, in 2008, he had 1,464. 

No matter how hard he worked, he says, cases kept coming "like a flow out of a spigot. You can't turn it off." 

As more restrictive laws are passed, this will only get worse without comprehensive reform, and that reform will have to address the court system as well.

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Colombia FTA imminent

Apparently the Colombia FTA is imminent.  From the AP:

The U.S. and Colombia are expected to announce Wednesday a deal on a key free trade pact, three people close to the agreement said, ending a years-long stalemate over the highly-coveted pact.

An agreement appeared to come together following weeks of intense negotiations in Washington and Bogota, focused in part on Colombia strengthening its protection of unions and labor leaders.

I take this to mean that whatever was negotiated will lead to a favorable vote in the U.S. Congress.  My main conclusion is that there will be relatively few significant effects.  This will have no effect on Hugo Chávez, no effect on the FARC or terrorism more broadly, will likely not boost either economy significantly, and will not strongly affect the U.S. role in the region.  By virtue of being blocked by congressional Democrats, the FTA has taken on exaggerated importance.  Until Republicans held up the ATPDEA, Colombia had access to U.S. markets already anyway for many key exports.

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Yet more on Colombia FTA

I've written quite a bit on the strange arguments people make about the Colombia FTA.  Here is an entirely new one from Michael Barone: the FTA has not been passed because of support from, and I quote, "black or Hispanic left-wingers, from union operatives, from antiwar groups."   This is the first time I've seen a racial or ethnic argument, and he provides no evidence for it.  As for unions, what people do not realize is that some unions support FTAs.  To argue otherwise is false.


Regardless, I am not ready to make predictions but I would argue that from a strictly pragmatic perspective the current political climate is potentially propitious for passing the FTA.  In particular, President Obama just came back from Latin America and would like to show he is making an effort.  It would also be a bipartisan effort, which shows he is trying to reach out in the context of a bruising budget debate.

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Enforcement blues

From USA Today: Congress is going to take a look at the following issue:

From 2006 to 2010, the number of Customs and Border Protection officers who inspect people and cargo crossing through the ports of entry along the southwest border increased by 15%, while the number of CBP Border Patrol agents who patrol the rugged terrain between those ports increased by 59%, according to CBP figures.

In other words, our real problems--drugs and guns--are getting short shrift in order to be seen as "doing something" about undocumented immigration.  We'll see how Republican address the problem, since they are simultaneously committed to security and fiscal restraint.  In this case, you either shift resources or spend more.

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Immigration bills

Seth Hoy at Immigration Impact has a very interesting post on how state-level immigration bills are not passing.  In ten states, Arizona-type legislation is getting axed by legislative leaders.  For example:

Mississippi’s legislature killed more than 30 immigration-related bills this week that would have, among other things, required people to speak English before receiving a state license, denied public benefits to the undocumented and attached an additional fee to all wire transfers going out of the country. The most controversial of the package, however, was SB 2179—Mississippi’s Arizona-style bill which would require police to investigate the immigration status of those they suspect are in the country illegally.

This is another example of why I criticized the New York Times article about how such bills are becoming more common in the South.  Yes, we will see immigration bills pass at the state and local level, as potentially in Georgia, but I think there are signs of greater pragmatism that don't tend to get media attention because they aren't exciting.

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Academic writing

Mike Munger has some very good advice on academic writing in the Chronicle of Higher Education. I really agree with everything he says, but particularly with #2:

Set goals based on output, not input. "I will work for three hours" is a delusion; "I will type three double-spaced pages" is a goal. After you write three pages, do something else. Prepare for class, teach, go to meetings, whatever. If later in the day you feel like writing some more, great. But if you don't, then at least you wrote something.

That was something a friend in graduate school said he did--writing two double-spaced pages of dissertation a day--and I successfully copied it and continue to do so in some fashion (though not necessarily always two pages).  Those two pages aren't necessarily good, and will be changed through editing, but they represent a concrete goal and then accomplishment.

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More on Brazil

I am going to stop flogging this horse soon, but Greg Grandin sent me an email response to yesterday's post about his Brazil argument and kindly agreed to let me post it here.

As to Lula's statement, I think the difference between voting no (if Brazil was a perm member) and abstaining (as a non-perm member) has to do with cost benefit.   As a non-perm member, a vote no would have been ineffectual -- ie, done nothing to stop the bombing -- while possibly giving ammo to those who claim Brazil is too "irresponsible" to have a permanent seat.   Once it had that seat, it could vote/veto as it saw fit, to effect.     It might have been morally cowardly to abstain, as you suggest, but I'd think it has less to do with not wanting to appear to be "doing nothing" than with not taking a righteous yet structurally useless stand and risk giving more excuses to those who would deny it a seat.   And if it was a simple case of being a moral coward, why the strong statement now?   If there is anything those Wikileaks Brazil memos reveal, is that its diplomats and politicians are very good at not getting into pointless rhetorical arguments with US representatives, even as they went about and substantively did the opposite of what the US wanted.    

I get the logic, but the statements and actions of the Brazilian government don't suggest its current strategy is more likely to generate U.S. support for a seat on the Security Council.  I would argue that abstaining and then saying you wouldn't abstain in the future is equally ineffectual, and undermines confidence in your decision-making even further (though indeed perhaps less so than an actual "no" vote).  Obama already refused to support Brazil's bid in any case, showing that Brazil's current actions are less relevant than its past foreign policy deviations from what the U.S. government wants.

FWIW, for an argument about Russia's abstention that was very similar to my argument on Brazil's abstention, see The Monkey Cage.

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U.S. and Brazil

Greg Grandin has an opinion piece in Al-Jazeera about U.S.-Brazilian relations, which I think tends to over-emphasize the negative but is worth reading.

I also keep thinking about the Brazilian abstention in the UN vote on Libya, which I've written about before, and its subsequent criticism of military action:

Even before Obama landed in Rio, Brazil, as a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council, joined with China and Germany to abstain from the vote authorising "all necessary measures" against Libya’s Muammar Gaddafi.  

Since then, its opposition to the bombing has hardened.  According to the Inter Press Service News Agency (IPS), Brazil's foreign ministry – still, for the most part, staffed by the diplomats who charted Lula's foreign policy – recently issued a statement condemning the loss of civilian lives and calling for the start of dialogue.  

Lula himself has endorsed Dilma's critical position on Libya, going further in his condemnation of the intervention: "These invasions only happen because the United Nations is weak," he said. "If we had twenty-first-century representation [in the Security Council], instead of sending a plane to drop bombs, the UN would send its secretary-general to negotiate."  

His remarks were widely interpreted to mean that if Brazil had been a permanent member of the Security Council – a position it has long sought – it would have vetoed the resolution authorising the bombing rather than, as it did, merely abstaining from the vote.  

If this is what Lula meant, then I am confused.  Why would the nature of your participation in the UN change the way you voted?  Why not vote "no" regardless?

Regardless, it is also worth noting that President Rousseff's foreign policy does deviate from Lula's, so it is important not to generalize too much..

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No more awards

I would like to propose that governments impose a moratorium on granting awards to people from other countries, particularly when those people show evidence of doing the opposite of what the award is supposedly celebrating.

The latest was Hugo Chávez being given a press freedom award in Argentina, but there are plenty more.  Of course, Barack Obama won the Nobel Peace Prize, and Obama awarded Alvaro Uribe with the Medal of Freedom.  And who could forget the Libyan human rights award, won by that paragon of liberty Fidel Castro?  And don't bother offering a prize to Cubans because they're so free that they aren't even allowed to attend.

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Obama on immigration

With the Libya crisis in full swing, what is getting less notice is the fact that President Obama has been repeating constantly over the past few weeks that he is committed to immigration reform.  He did so multiple times while on the trip to Latin America, and now has done so again in a speech at a high school.  The first paragraph in the Politico article makes clear the political risk this entails:

President Barack Obama on Monday told an audience of predominantly Latinos that he’s hopeful an immigration overhaul bill will be able to pass Congress soon, even though he was unable to shepherd legislation for the DREAM Act to his desk before the first half of his first term, when Democrats controlled both houses.

At what point does President Obama's promise to get things done combined with inability to convince Congress to pass anything start rebounding negatively on him?

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Latin America benefits from tsunami

This is a bit twisted, but true.  From the Wall Street Journal: Latin America stands to benefit from the Japanese tsunami.  Latin American economies depend heavily upon commodities, which like thneeds are something that everyone needs.  Japan will need a lot as it rebuilds.  It would be more seemly, however, if Latin American foreign ministers were not salivating quite so openly:

Argentine finance minister Amado Boudou also sees Japan quickly restarting to rebuild its infrastructure. "We salute them because it's good for the whole international economy," he told reporters at the IDB meeting. In 2009, Argentina exported about $581 million in food and mineral products to Japan, or about 5% of its total exports.

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Latest Colombia FTA threat

Throughout the Bush administration the primary public rationale for a U.S.-Colombia free trade agreement was security.  This reached absurd extremes, as in 2008 when President Bush said that without the FTA, we would all lose to the FARC and Hugo Chávez would "win" (whatever that meant).

This argument does keep popping up from time to time, but it has lost its luster as its apocalyptic visions have never come to pass.  So supporters are now looking to find another apocalypse.  The answer: China!  From the Financial Times:

China has meanwhile risen to become Colombia’s second biggest trade partner after the US, and by some estimates will overtake the US in the next decade if the trade deal is not approved.

I've been doing my best to debunk the breathless China threat meme, which is now coming fast and furious, but it has everything: foreigners we don't really understand, questionable statistics, and scenarios of "losing."

I just keep coming back to the same point: FTA supporters should argue its concrete merits rather than playing on fear.

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Immigration in the South

If you want to see some bad reporting, check out this New York Times article on immigration legislation in the South.  The basic argument is that there is more restrictionist legislation in the South than elsewhere.  We know, of course, that state and local governments in the West and Northeast have already passed various bills that are being legally challenged.  In the South, however, the article points mostly to proposed legislation, and then mentions only one bill that has a clear chance of passing.  It then asks people in one Atlanta grocery store what they think, and generalizes from that.

If you want a more nuanced view, read my book.  To quote myself, "Although one might expect that as more immigrants arrive Southern legislatures would be more likely to pass legislation, thus far the evidence is not firm" (p. 154).

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Walker and Wade's Nicaragua

I like Thomas Walker and Christine Wade's Nicaragua: Living in the Shadow of the Eagle, 5th Edition (2011).  It is clearly sympathetic to the revolution, but takes pains to remain even handed.  That means having no illusions, for example, about the political direction Daniel Ortega has been taking while also praising successful policies he implemented in the 1980s.  I highly recommend it as an excellent political history.  I would be tempted to use it in a class, but I don't tend to go that far in depth in a country study to merit an entire book.

The first half of the book is historical chronology, and the second half is separated by different issues: economic, cultural, political, and international.  Nicaragua has a fascinating history, and the writing is very good.  Who can resist sentences like the following?

On September 20, a young poet named Rigoberto López Pérez infiltrated a reception honoring the dictator and pumped five bullets point-blank into Somoza's corpulent hulk (p. 28).

My only complaint, and a relatively minor one, is that the facts can really stand for themselves in Nicaragua so there were far too many uses of the words "alleged" and "apparently," usually referring to some nefarious connection to the United States.  But there were so many such nefarious connections that including rumors weakens the overall argument.

I agree with their assessment of Ortega: "The Ortega government was both openly defiant and curiously submissive to the demands of its old enemy" (p. 213).  The more things change, the more they stay the same.

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QOTD: Obama trip post mortem

From Kevin Casas-Zamora in the Wall Street Journal.  I think this nails it, and underlines the gap between rhetoric and action:

"When it comes to the truly crucial issues that are at the heart of U.S.-Latin American relations, to really move the relationship forward requires politically costly decisions here in the United States," said Kevin Casas-Zamora, a former vice president in Costa Rica who now studies Latin America in Washington.

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Obama in El Salvador

After much discussion, much confusion, and plenty of disagreement we finally got to hear what Barack Obama and Mauricio Funes prioritized during their brief meeting.  There were three main points.

First, pleasant pronouncements with nice names regarding economic growth.  Some of them, like the Bridge Initiative, are aimed specifically at immigrants (i.e. remittances).

Second, narcotrafficking.  The CARSI Initiative is an example they mentioned in particular.  To his credit, Obama does keep repeating the importance of reducing drug demand in the United States.

Third, migration.  Obama said again, as he did in Chile, that he would push for immigration reform.  He's been saying that for over two years, but still.

Boz mentions the environment, but I think it is noteworthy that Funes did not mention it, and Obama tacked it on the end of his speech as something he basically convinced El Salvador to do.

These do not preclude the symbolic measure of bolstering a moderate president in Central America, as Mike Allison has argued.  At least he isn't getting divorced in order to let his wife run for president!

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Obama's speech in Chile

Barack Obama's speech in Chile was bland.  There's no other way to put it.  We're partners, we're connected, you're so democratic, let me mention JFK!  Funny thing is, he even seems to acknowledge that fact:

Now, I know I’m not the first president from the United States to pledge a new spirit of partnership with our Latin American neighbors.  Words are easy, and I know that there have been times where perhaps the United States took this region for granted.

Words are indeed easy, though at least he mentions things that previous presidents tended not to.  He talks about immigration reform, the flow of guns from north to south and an emphasis on drug demand rather than supply, so hopefully those translate into action.

Other views:

--Robert Funk says Obama's message is "I am not Bush."

--Kenneth Bunker says the visit is a boost for Sebastián Piñera, who can use it

--Pato Navia says the symbolism of visiting Latin America even though a crisis brew elsewhere is important, and also the specific choice of Chile

--Fox News just hates Obama's guts for visiting Latin America in the first place

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Immigration bills in NC

The Charlotte Observer has a story about how quickly the new Republican state legislature is moving.  There aren't more bills than in the past, but more are getting passed rapidly (fortunately, screwball ones like introducing a new NC currency are not!).  What really got my attention, however, was that immigration was never mentioned.

There are indeed restrictionists bills that have been introduced, but it is noteworthy that no one interviewed, including House Speaker Thom Tillis, ever brought it up.  I don't want to make too much of it, but it seems to be a positive sign.

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Obama to Brazil: no UN for you!

Obama on India in 2010:

"And that is why I can say today, in the years ahead, I look forward to a reformed United Nations Security Council that includes India as a permanent member."

Obama on Brazil in 2011:

In a joint statement, Obama and Rousseff said they recognized the need to reform international institutions to reflect the “current political and economic realities.”

But Washington did not explicitly back Brazil's aspirations for a permanent UN Security Council seat, as he did for India when visiting New Delhi in November.

“President Obama expressed appreciation for Brazil's aspiration to become a permanent member of the Security Council,” the statement said.

Doh!

There are any number of reasons this is happening.  For example, as a permanent member India's votes would be far more likely than Brazil's to fall along the lines of U.S. policy.

Nonetheless, it opens up the Latin America trip with a slap at a time when the administration talks all about partnership.

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Presidential plans

I just returned from the 2011 conference of the Southeastern Council of Latin American Studies, which I regularly attend and really enjoy.  I also became president of the organization, and hope to learn from Latin American politics.  You see, I only have a one year term with no re-election, so I will spend the next year figuring out how to end term limits--but only because the people want me, and who can deny the people?  If SECOLAS had a Supreme Court, I'd pack it.  Just for the people.

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Brazil and Libya

Brazil was one of five countries to abstain in the vote to approve use of force in Libya, and particularly given their UN Ambassador's comments, it strikes me as a particularly cowardly vote.

Among the five governments that abstained in the vote, Brazil’s U.N. ambassador, Maria Luiza Riberio Viotti, voiced concern that military action in Libya would “exacerbate tensions on the ground and cause more harm than good to the same civilians we are committed to protect.”

She also warned that military action would undermine the “spontaneous homegrown nature’’ of popular uprisings spreading through the Arab world and threatened to “change that narrative in ways that would have serious repercussions” for Libya and the rest of the region.

If you believe that firmly that military action will have very negative consequences, then vote no.  Instead, Brazil is trying to hedge its bets.  Abstaining means it is trying to avoid blame for the consequences of military action, but also does not want to be blamed for "doing nothing."

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Obama in Latin America

President Obama is already getting some pokes for traveling to Latin America despite the crises in the Middle East and Japan, not to mention a budget debate at home.  From the Wall Street Journal:

With the Middle East in turmoil, Japan’s nuclear reactors at least partly melting down and Congress in the midst of a budget battle, President Barack Obama is going to … Latin America.

Of course, he would also be criticized if he chose to postpone the trip.  In general, it reflects well on Latin America that it is not crisis-ridden enough to get the global spotlight.  In fact, Obama will likely talk about successful political transitions in Latin America in a comparative context.  It's downright comparative politics!

But during his trip to Latin America next week, Obama is likely to use his visit to a region that has undergone a long process of transitioning from authoritarian regimes to democratization to finally address the future of the Middle East. 

I have a feeling these will be superficial comparisons, but I will be interested to hear how he frames them.

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China in Latin America

One of the latest crazes is to argue that China is "challenging" the United States in Latin America, and this is something the U.S. government needs to address (exactly how is rarely explained).  So Reuters cries out:

China's growing economic stake in the region may one day raise a threat to Washington's strategic dominance too as its deep pockets bring new friends.

They toss that "may" in there as a qualifier, but the overall tone is very clear.  I am skeptical, and agree with those who argue that China cannot very easily displace U.S. influence, no matter how much money it throws at Latin America.  Plus, China mostly wants commodities and market access for its goods, neither of which "raises a threat to Washington's strategic dominance."

But wait, the end of the article acknowledges that China is viewed warily in Latin America:

Brazil's new government under President Dilma Rousseff has already taken a much cooler stance toward China than her predecessor, aiming to address a lopsided relationship that has seen imports of Chinese goods quintuple since 2005.

Tensions also surfaced with Argentina last year when China, in apparent anger over protectionist moves, boycotted soyoil shipments for six months.

And Chinese companies often face challenges winning local support for their projects in Peru, which critics worry will cause pollution or use scarce water resources.

In other words, the story contradicts itself, but sadly the lurid headline about losing clout in Latin America is what many people will remember.

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Venezuelan take on Libya

If you want to see how much the Libyan people love Gaddafi, how there is calm in the streets, how the UN lies about human rights, how Gaddafi's son is just trying to do the right thing, and how the crisis is a U.S. plot, then check out the Venezuelan News Agency's special web page on Libya.  Dictatorship never looked so good.

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Mexico and asylum

All the stories about Mexican law enforcement, journalists, and even just family of activists seeking asylum in the United States made me wonder about the numbers.  These are from the Department of Justice's Yearbook of Immigration Statistics 2009 (I discovered that the 2010 numbers don't come out until next month).  The following is the number of individuals granted asylum from Mexico from 2000 to 2009.

2000: 42
2001: 52
2002: 36
2003: 35
2004: 53
2005: 85
2006: 84
2007: 103
2008: 176
2009: 192

In other words, in that decade the number rose 457 percent.  It is entirely reasonable to expect the 2010 numbers also to show an increase.  It makes me wonder a) whether the evaluation of asylum requests has evolved over time or not; and b) how much the number of total requests has gone up.

Regardless, this is becoming an increasingly public issue that is uncomfortable for both the U.S. and Mexican governments since it does not reflect well on current strategies for reducing drug-related violence.

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Remittances are back

One sign of an economic recovery in the United States is the increase of remittances to Latin America, which had been down for several years.  Overall, they rose to $58.9 billion, a 0.2% increase.  Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador and Mexico all increased between 6 and 16%.

We can therefore come to a few conclusions.

First, this once again suggests strongly that there is no exodus of migrants going back home.  They still see the U.S. as an economic engine from which they can draw.

Second, since we know that recent migrants are the most likely to send remittances, and many of them are undocumented, this constitutes anecdotal evidence that enforcement is not serving as a major deterrent.

Third, unfortunately, Latin American economies are still heavily dependent on the export of primary products, and that includes their own people.

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Brazil at the UN

Peter Hakim at the Inter-American Dialogue has a balanced analysis of why the Obama administration should support Brazil's bid for a permanent seat on the UN Security Council, and also includes counter-arguments.  He has one sentence that jumped out at me:

Washington would simply be acknowledging Brazil’s new global prominence and getting out in front of the inevitable.

I think "getting out in front of the inevitable" applies to many different foreign policy areas.  U.S. policy makers, not to mention the general public, all too often believe that sheer might, combined with our deeply embedded sense of exceptionalism, can bend international events to our own will.  You can push for your own policy preferences, but it is important to understand when something is going to happen whether you like it or not, and then adjust accordingly.

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Current immigration reform

Here is where we currently stand on immigration.  Faced with federal inaction and knowing they need to regularize their workforce, state governments like Utah are trying to forge their own guest worker programs.  Whether or not the Utah plan passes constitutional muster, or works in practice, remains to be seen.

Meanwhile, the federal government raids Chipotle restaurants.

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Fidel and Moammar

The Huffington Post has a post from Yoani Sánchez in English comparing Fidel Castro to Moammar Gaddafi.

Both leaders waved before their subjects' eyes the specter of foreign invasion and a return to political dependence, the worst of threats. Anti-colonialism became the big bad wolf of the eccentric Berber leader, while the Caribbean leader scratched around in the mud of anti-imperialism, turning the metaphor of David and Goliath into a perennial reference to Cuba and the United States.

It's a good post.  Short and sweet.

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Drugs and innovation in Latin America

Sylvia Longmire has a very interesting article in Homeland Security Today about how drug traffickers are constantly finding new and innovative ways to transport drugs to the United States.  Although the U.S. government has been responding, it can barely keep up.  She makes the point that the innovation comes because of the squeeze--"record" busts mean it is necessary for traffickers to find new strategies.

This brings me to one of my numerous pet peeves.  I find myself annoyed at triumphant references to "records" regarding drugs, and though she doesn't focus on it I think her article highlights why they are terribly misleading yet media pleasing factoids.  To quote Inigo Montoya, I do not think it means what you think it means, because records don't automatically mean you are "winning" (and now I guess I am quoting Charlie Sheen).  Somehow the record number of busts continues to coincide with the record amount of drug revenue.

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Chile-Japan nexus

From Wikileaks (via CIPER Chile): Alejandro Toledo thought there was a nefarious "Chile-Japan nexus."

The President also complained that he was surprised President Vicente Fox of Mexico did not promptly inform him that Fujimori’s plane had transited via Tijuana. The Ambassador replied that it appeared the Chilean Government had been caught off guard, noting that the flight manifest faxed to Santiago did not have Fujimori’s name on it (though the manifest handed over by the flight crew on arrival did). The Ambassador added that he suspected the Japanese Government also was taken unawares. Toledo indicated that he still suspected collusion between Chile and Japan, while continuing to express bewilderment at “”my friend”" Fox’s failure to provide timely information during their attendance at the Summit of the Americas.

In fact, by 2007 Fujimori was a hot potato for the Bachelet administration, which didn't want him around.    But I guess if you set the record for the lowest approval rating in a democracy, you feel pretty paranoid all the time.

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More on Libya and Latin America

Reading analyses of Latin American leaders' reaction to the Libyan crisis has been entertaining.  A simple matter of ideological unity--however repugnant--is transformed into sweeping arguments about Latin America as a whole.  This normally becomes a mirror of the author's own beliefs.  Take for example this L.A. Times op-ed by Andrés Martinez at the New America Foundation.

The fact that three Latin American leaders (Chávez, Castro, and Ortega) have expressed support for Gaddafi means the following (and I swear I am not making this up):

--All of Latin American civil society is "immature."  So presumably the fact that Hugo Chávez supports Gaddafi reflects Chilean or Mexican "immaturity" as well.

--"Latin leaders have arrogantly considered foreign affairs their exclusive prerogative, divorced from whatever constraints they face at home."  I will explain what this means once I figure it out.  If there were constraints, then presumably they would be constrained.  Otherwise they aren't constraints.

--Lula mocks human rights by his relation with Iran.  What this has to do with Libya or President Rousseff (she is not even mentioned in the article!) is not explained.  The Brazilian government has in fact not ruled any response out, but rather asserts any international solution must have UN backing.  Lula cozied up to Gaddafi plenty of times in the past, but currently Brazil is more or less in the mainstream with regard to a solution.

--In sum, the Latin American left is a big bloc and all of it supports Gaddafi. Except if it doesn't, I guess.

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Latino population in North Carolina

I have not yet had time to dig into the Census data on the Latino population.  Nonetheless, the upward growth of that population is considerable--Latinos now constitute 8.4 percent of North Carolina's population, an increase of 111.1 percent since 2000.  I was quoted in a local paper, the Salisbury Post, about the origins of that migration.

There will be plenty of misunderstanding of the numbers, plus anecdotal accounts that may or may not have empirical backing.  Take this story in the News & Observer, which argues there is an "exodus."  The reporter spoke to one Latino immigrant who, as we learn at the end of the story, doesn't plan to leave despite economic problems!  As I've written many, many times, there is always circular migration and some people will indeed leave for economic reasons (or perhaps enforcement) but there is no exodus.

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Performance vs. ideology

There's a curious juxtaposition between North Carolina politics, where Republicans recently took control of the both legislative houses for the first time in more than a century, to Latin America, where over the past decade or so left-leaning governments are replacing right-leaning ones.  In both cases, the new governments confidently asserted that the voters actively wanted them in particular.  Increasingly, however, it is evident that voters are making their choices based on performance rather than ideology.  Assuming everyone voted based on your ideology can become problematic when performance dips.

From Jack Betts in today's Charlotte Observer:

"The biggest mistake Republicans can make is to believe that voters chose them because of their ideology," he said. "They chose Republicans because they had lost confidence in the Democrats' ability to solve the problems of the day. ... This has not become a Republican state."

And this abstract from Latin American Research Review:

Over the past few years, a burgeoning literature on Latin American politics has developed, focusing on explanations for the renewed success of the left in the region. Building on electoral trends and public opinion analysis, we argue that the region is experiencing the normalization of democratic politics rather than a backlash or a revolution. Furthermore, we believe that electoral support for the left reflects the disenchantment of voters with underperforming right-wing governments. Using a unique data set covering eighteen countries in the region, our statistical analyses demonstrate that retrospective voting provides a powerful explanation of the recent electoral success of the left in Latin America. Thus, the central implication of our argument is that electoral accountability is still the primary mechanism of controlling the executive in the region's young democracies.

María Victoria Murillo, Virginia Oliveros, and Milan Vaishnav, "Electoral Revolution or Democratic Alternation?" Latin American Research Review 45, 3 (2010): 87-114.

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Quote of the day: Chile

"The latest rumor is that Moammar Gadhafi is calling other countries to find a place to live in exile. So far, only Chile has offered to rent out an empty mine."

--Jay Leno

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U.S. policy toward Nicaragua

Thanks to Boz for pointing out this speech from the U.S. Ambassador to Nicaragua, Robert Callahan.  It is an apologia for U.S. policy, and really a doozy.  He goes all the way back to William Walker.

Walker was clearly crazed, a true megalomaniac, and he caused death and destruction wherever he pitched up.  But he was acting on his own and received no support from the American government.

Then it gets worse.  Much worse.

Another renowned Nicaraguan figure to emerge from this period was Anastasio Somoza Garcia.  As history would prove, Americans erred in selecting him to lead the newly created and non-partisan National Guard, which was to replace a politicized army, but it would have been impossible to know Somoza's intentions at the time.  He seemed bright and well intentioned and he spoke English.  He talked of democracy.  He extolled freedom.  He promised elections.  He charmed us, and many others.

Yes, we supported him and his sons for years, tolerating them in the name of national security.  But at the end, admittedly late in the game, we abandoned him.  Many contributed to the defeat of Somoza, but we did play a modest, if belated, role. 

This is just embarrassing.  We thought Somoza was a great guy and he tricked us!  But then, after over 40 years of brutal repression we stopped supporting his son just when he was about to be overthrown anyway.  So we're the good guys.  Why can't you Nicaraguans understand that?

I will just provide one more example.

But there are many other, much less visible, ways that America and Americans contribute to Nicaragua's economic and social development.  Take, for example, remittances.  Although we have no exact figures, we estimate conservatively that Nicaraguans receive at least a half a billion dollars annually from workers and residents in the United States.  The United States has welcomed these workers, many of whom are immigrants, and has never interfered with their desire to send money home.

It is strange that anyone today could say that the U.S. welcomes Latin American workers.  Even setting that aside, it is bizarre that "never interfering" with remittances is equated with actively contributing to Nicaragua's "economic and social development."

There is more, but I won't subject you to it.

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Hugo Chávez on the Middle East

Hugo Chávez on Libya: I want to help mediate.

Hugo Chávez on Egypt: No outside power should be involved and the country should find its own solution.  "El pueblo decidirá."

Hugo Chávez on the U.S government.: It is hypocritical.

Oh, and don't call me Mubarak.

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Latin American drug consumption

A dark side of economic growth is that people have more disposable income to spend on illegal substances.  The UN is concerned about the rise of cocaine use among Latin American youths, led by Uruguay, Chile and Argentina.  Further, it looks like Peru may overtake Colombia as the world's largest exporter of coca.

Latin American governments rightfully criticize the United States for refusing to address the problem of consumption, but with increased Latin American consumption there is a pressing need to work jointly to find solutions that work.  Otherwise organized crime will be moving into places like Chile that have never experienced it before.

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Why Cuba Isn't Likely Next

I think Chris Sabatini has a really interesting take about why Cuba is not likely to be the next in a wave of dictatorial uprootings:

For the last two decades, from Eastern Europe to Egypt, none of the countries that has experienced a people's revolution has been under a U.S. embargo.  Though it is about to be the target of focused sanctions as a result of its bloody response to the protestors (and deservedly so) before the current uprising even Libya saw its sanctions ended in 2004 by the George W. Bush administration.  In the case of Libya --and in the past-- targeted sanctions tied to a specific act by the government can provoke a course correction or even collapse.  Over the long-term, though, sanctions actually seal a country off from the rest of the world and allow a government to dig in.

The inverse relationship between isolation and people's revolution is no coincidence. Contact with the outside world builds capacity and ideas insidious to even the most tyrannical regime.  

Add this to all the other many reasons that the embargo helps to block political change in Cuba.

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