Monday, November 30, 2009

Recognition issues: Mexico

So who will recognize the Honduran elections? President Calderón of Mexico says the elections are a necessary but not sufficient condition for the re-establishment of constitutional order. He does not specify what "constitutional order" means.


[L]a democracia en nuestros pueblos está registrando claras regresiones de carácter no democrático, de lo cual el golpe de Estado vivido en Honduras es una situación muy preocupante y una poderosa llamada de atención para todos.

Democracy in our nations is registering clear regressions of a non-democratic character, of which the coup d'etat experienced in Honduras is a very troubling situation and a powerful call to attention for everyone.


Anonymous,  2:08 PM  

They are 'opening the door' for recognition. press reports indicate Colombia will also recognize the elections. Mexico and others (Spain?) will probably make some noises and then recognize the new government.

It's been clear for a long while this was the way to solve this crisis.

Anonymous,  2:20 PM  

El Salvador is also making noises about recognition:

Maybe they will let Zelaya back for a few days right before the transfer?

Greg Weeks 2:48 PM  

Anything could happen, but I tend not to think he would be shoved back in at the last minute. More likely would be invitation to participate in the vaunted "unity government." And we still await Congress' vote. Once the negotiated accord is fulfilled, then the number of recognizing countries will increase. But we can only speculate.

leftside 6:50 PM  

The US seems to be zig-zagging on the issue. Now they appear to be going out of their way to downplay recognition of the election. Valenzuela declined today to say the US "recognizes" the election and instead says merely that the US "takes note" of it and its results. But the real news is that the US "sharply stresses" that additional steps need to be taken to "restore the democratic and constitutional order." Basically that the election is a first step but that more needs to be done.

Those steps include a Congressional vote on the return of Zelaya, an undefined Government of national unity, a truth commission and a "reform of the Constitional process" - in order to bring reconcilation to the Honduran people.

Valenzuela indicated the US would not back a re-entry of Honduras into the OAS until these conditions have been met. We'll see how long it takes before the US zags another direction now, trying to divide the region. Confusion seems to be the name of the game in order to keep everyone off balance.

I thought the following Q & A was pretty revealing though, as to the hypocrisy of the US position, which on one hand says that a coup took place and can not be allowed to stand as an example to the region, but on the other says:

QUESTION: So is it not a legitimate concern that by recognizing the election, you could be encouraging further coups?

MR. VALENZUELA: No, because I think that we have to make absolutely clear that any country that encourages a military coup, or if a military coup takes place, they run the risk of actually being suspended from the Organization of American States...

Ooooh scary, committ a coup and the worst thing that can happen is expulsion from the OAS. Get real.

I would not be surprised to learn that Congress does indeed vote on the restitution of Zelaya on Dec 2nd to meet the so-called Accord deadline. Then Zelaya will have to choose whether he wants to be part of this farce in order to bless the coup or stick to his just principles.

Anonymous,  7:54 PM  

it's simply a way for all to act as if they got something from the new government. Notice that Brazil and Mexico are doing the same, talking about how the president-elect can give the right signals. Since they realize they need to recognize him in the end they are looking to do so in a way that doesn't lay bare how empty their threats of non-recognition really were.

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